MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Hamilton Brian]

Okay, so you think celaph is town based on your read of D1 votes.

Who will you vote for instead?

I am really unsure who I will vote for right now.

I still think something stinks amongst all the roleblock claims. It's not hard-confirmed that we are NOT in setup 1.

So a possible candidate, for me, could come from either Damo, Jamie, Darg, Rivera.

[Hellenic Riot]

Day Four Vote 1.0:

celaph (5): Kakarroto, Maniac, dargorygel, Hamilton Brian, yavuzovic
Maniac (1): Jamiet99uk
Kakarroto (1): kgray
dargorygel (1): Macca573
yavuzovic (1): rdrivera2005
Macca573 (1): Chaqa
damo666 (1): foodcoats
rdrivera2005 (1): damo666

Not voted (2): Bonatogether, celaph

Currently CELAPH is set to be daykilled.

You have 28 hours and 45 minutes remaining.

[Chaqa]

@chaqa
Do NOT read this question as hostile.

But can you explain why you see that kgray MIGHT be bussing... and not bona? If it is just because it was earlier, that is not enough to discount the possibility, really... is it?

I don't think Bona would make a deciding vote onto his teammate when there's three other viable wagons, at least one of which is a town wagon. He doesn't strike me as the cutthroat bussing type, and he doesn't have much logical reason to bus RHK there, in my opinion.

Generally I think bussing for no reason is a bad idea.

Kgray I don't think is for sure bussing, but the move away and back once the RHK wagon seems like a sure thing is what rubs me wrong.

[Hamilton Brian]

Also interested in the dynamic between Yav and Rivera. Requires a side-by-side reading there.

[Chaqa]

##vote rdr

If you like my VCA, why are you voting RDR

I mean, he could be scum, based on the info we have, but I have largely been discounting him (for now) based on a general town read I get from him (which I see now Dargo is echoing)

[celaph]

If I die kill kgray

But actually celaph

And then some combo of Jamie/Maniac/Chaqa/rd/Macca/yav in roughly that prefer.

And then kgray.

Town: bona, damo, HB, kgray

Super town: darg probably, food, kak

Can scum change the kill order in two minutes after seeing this? I doubt that so ##vote celaph

Can you clarify your reason for voting here? Are you assuming that ghug was crumbing results and if so which status message do you think he saw me receive? The only ones that are particularly mafia inclined are for the janitor or stalker both of which obviously haven't happened. Either way, how is any of that relevant to the timing of ghug's message?

[Chaqa]

I think we should completely shelve any suspicion of Dargo.

If he is somehow not the Cop, it will come out in due time, and the real Cop should have enough information to solve the game for us.

[foodcoats]

Okay, so you think celaph is town based on your read of D1 votes.

Who will you vote for instead?

I am really unsure who I will vote for right now.

I still think something stinks amongst all the roleblock claims. It's not hard-confirmed that we are NOT in setup 1.

So a possible candidate, for me, could come from either Damo, Jamie, Darg, Rivera.

It seems kind of scummy to me that you are maintaining a vote on a 5 vote wagon when the next wagon is at 1 and you have explicitly said you don't think that the wagon you are on is scum?

[celaph]

Have you factored in that because Rdr and Chaqa were roleblocked when a kill took place that they are unlikely Ninja? I know scum could have a reserve killer or WW might have made the kills. Because all kills have been on specific PRs I doubt any of them were WW which begs the question why? Is Chaqa more likely WW because WW is freer to visit players now Watcher has been killed? There is a chance that TRBr didn’t roleblock anyone on one of the nights and claimed RB. It’s possible they were worried they would hit the other PRs. How does that affect your conclusions?

I think the hypothesis that town blocker held and claimed is unlikely and can be ignored. I fail to see the benefit.

That rdr and celaph are probably not Ninja is a very good point. The same is ofc true of Jamie and I. I will rework the numbers.

The apparent lack of WW activity might indicate one of the blockees is WW with Chaqa the most likely.

I assume nobody has yet received a failed ww message.

Thanks for your input Maniac. You've got me thinking.

HOLD UP.

It is ENTIRELY reasonable the TRB would holster when they did not know what other PRs were out there. What if they just blocked a town PR?

Hmm... HMM...

Not that it had to happen but both like... damo and kgray I think? Have dismissed any theorizing around the TRB doing anything but "dum de dum dum ploink!" moves. But if the TRB were smart, would they do that? I, foodcoats, WOULD do that, because I suck. But would a smart TRB?

Hmm...

Hmm...

I think it's probably safe to assume that town rb hasn't holstered given the claiming history. That said, I could see a town rb self targeting though it's probably a bad idea to speculate further if we think that actually happened.

I think it's far more likely that ww is acting as a town because it's much harder for them to guess mafia unless a lot of mafia are alive. We could certainly use the help right now.

[foodcoats]

I really like the big analysis post, Chaqa. If you're scum well... you deserve to win.

One thing I see from your post is that rdr and HB can't really be scum together.

And, agreed, Kakarroto can't be scum there, either.

HB could still be scum and was jumping on the brain wagon... possibly even with kgray, both of them being scum, locking them in even more tightly? Especially if, say, celaph - who gets wishy-washied by HB and has been repeatedly defended by kgray - was absent scum.

I didn't like the kgray switches at the time, either. She responded to that accusation rather angrily... but I have no idea whether it was feigned emotion or real.

[celaph]

Jesus.

Kill me next. I suck.

Why is this your reaction to seeing ghug die to ask to be killed?

[Chaqa]

I really like the big analysis post, Chaqa. If you're scum well... you deserve to win.

One thing I see from your post is that rdr and HB can't really be scum together.

And, agreed, Kakarroto can't be scum there, either.

HB could still be scum and was jumping on the brain wagon... possibly even with kgray, both of them being scum, locking them in even more tightly? Especially if, say, celaph - who gets wishy-washied by HB and has been repeatedly defended by kgray - was absent scum.

I didn't like the kgray switches at the time, either. She responded to that accusation rather angrily... but I have no idea whether it was feigned emotion or real.

Could you explain the HB/rivera thing?

It would fit my general feel that rivera is town and HB could be scum, but I hadn't reached that conclusion myself (not saying it's wrong, just my brain didn't get there).

I think today I would like to vote Macca, Yavu, or Hamilton.

[celaph]

I should add that D1 I was online and around at EoD. My attention was focused elsewhere, but I was aware of the state of the game and felt no need to move.

Chaqa said as much here:

I know at least celaph was online at EoD, if i remember the online list correctly (this is a possible case of bad memory, but I'm not sure).

[Chaqa]

I should add that D1 I was online and around at EoD. My attention was focused elsewhere, but I was aware of the state of the game and felt no need to move.

Chaqa said as much here:

I know at least celaph was online at EoD, if i remember the online list correctly (this is a possible case of bad memory, but I'm not sure).

oh!!! Past me coming in clutch :D

[celaph]

Okay, sorry if I am not being clear.

Can you just explain to me what your current read on celaph is? Town, null or scum?

I appreciate the apology, and I am sorry for flying off the handle toward you.

I am reading Celaph more town than scum and the proof in that, for me, is based on the D1 vote. I wrote more about in a just-previous post following Chaqa's D1 vote analysis.

And now I need to give you a reread around your Maniac thoughts, because you finally landed on Flum with a "scum are on Maniac."

Given I read Maniac as more town, and I think Celaph is scum, I think you're right. I think there was one on there. I'll bet you there were more on Flum. Let's check back when the game is done.

It seems you now townread me which is consistent with your read yesterday. Was one of these a typo or are has something changed? I'm confused here.

[damo666]

Time for an updated readslist

Bona assuming town due to D1 vote

celaph early vote on Demon a +ve, escaping the dk multiple times a -ve, content small +ve. overall slight townlean

Chaqa don't regard Demon vote a +ve since chaqa so fond of bussing, N3 rb a possible -ve, recent pots a strong +ve, overall a null I guess

darg assume cop

food sounded strongly town but running out of steam, still a townlean though

Ham very very chatty, seems hunty and inquistive, almost like he's trying to change meta, was townleaning but just might be crafty scum, overall null

Jamie seems out of character to me, possible ww or Janitor? I scumread Jamie but cannot vote him just in case I was town roleblocked making Jamie scum roleblocked and therfore likely town (though possibly werewolf). IF TOWN ROLEBLOCKER REVEALS THEY BLOCKED JAMIE I WILL VOTE JAMIE, however I respect their right to remain silent. I just hope they don't go to their grave without revealing.

Kak hard to read but giving him a town pass for now due to Demon voting him

kgray only positive is the Demon vote but could be a bus, I have an odd 'all is not right' feel about kgray - slight scumlean

Macca low participation and strange votes make them hard to read - null

Maniac I dunno, I'm all over the place with Maniac. Could be ww. ???

rdr not very active, nothing to go on, roleblock N2 a -ve, null-

yav scumlean although I can't really explain why. Hasn't done too much towny.

Summary Goodie at top to Baddie at bottom

damo
darg
Bona
Kak
celaph
food
HB
Chaqa
Macca
Maniac
rdr
kgray
yav
Jamie

[damo666]

Okay, so you think celaph is town based on your read of D1 votes.

Who will you vote for instead?

I am really unsure who I will vote for right now.

I still think something stinks amongst all the roleblock claims. It's not hard-confirmed that we are NOT in setup 1.

So a possible candidate, for me, could come from either Damo, Jamie, Darg, Rivera.

Are you mad? That would require liars every night. Why on earth would that happen?

[celaph]

If I die kill kgray

But actually celaph

And then some combo of Jamie/Maniac/Chaqa/rd/Macca/yav in roughly that prefer.

And then kgray.

Town: bona, damo, HB, kgray

Super town: darg probably, food, kak

##vote celaph

I hate this because I think you're town, but this vote so isn't towny. Why are you sheeping ghug on this? If it's because you think he had a good read, point to the parts of his read that you liked. If you think that he had mechanical information, what system messages do you think he received?

If the town voting for me have bad arguments, then it makes it really easy for scum to sheep them into a miskill.

[damo666]

celaph and chaqa getting townier

[damo666]

##vote Macca

voting darg is just plain daft and anti-town

I probably won't end here, this is a pressure vote to get them to switch

Can move to yav, kgray, rdr or even Maniac at a push (or J if I get the right msg).