MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Hamilton Brian]

I am what I am. I will stand what I said at that point in time.

Look at you picking up kgray's argument and trying to run with it.

Can you talk about that last sentence some more please?

Refers back to your statement about the dead not having good reads, or something like that. Foodcoats came at me trashing following brain, ghug. That's it.

[Hamilton Brian]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

Do you have a suspicion of what darg is?

[Hamilton Brian]

cause dargo is not the cop

What did you think about kak's suggestion that darg could still be town protecting the real cop?

It's dumb

Dumb because it sets up darg getting chomped, WW making a mistake, and being one mistake closer to being outed? Or dumb because it hasn't prevented the killing of our other PRs so far?

[Hamilton Brian]

Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.

What are the statistics involved?

[TheMadMonarch]

While I agree that he's been coasting a little, I do not believe Celaph is the best kill for today. There are much more scummier people around.

I'll happily vote for a maniac wagon if it pops off.



(Or y'all could see the light and join me here on Dargo...)

[Hamilton Brian]

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

I'm intrigued with, and torn by, this. I'm fascinated with the numbers and my statistics days are long behind me. I also think you've got a good point addressing "all what happened" being more relevant than the numbers.

Was there a game where damo's statistics were valuable and helped town win?

[rdrivera2005]

Just while I remember if I was WW I'd guess someone was VT on D1, as we only had 1 NK and no doc claim the people who were blocked N1 become prime suspects for WW.

Thoughts on Rdriveria

30 mins to go on D1 and this is the scores on the doors:

DemonRHK 4 foodcoats VECNA celaph Chaqa
Kakarroto 3 damo666 DARGORYGEL BRAINBOMB
Hamilton Brian 3 yavuzovic WORCEJ rdrivera2005
BRAINBOMB 3 ghug Hamilton Brian kgray
dargorygel 2 Kakarroto Bonatogether
Maniac 1 Jamiet99uk
Bonatogether 2 Macca573 DemonRHK
Jamiet99uk 1 Maniac

DemonRHK is about to make his move. he wants to survive, obviously, so what does he do. He has three wagons all with three votes apiece in second place. He has to be making the calculation about how he gets saved. Clearly if one of those wagons is full of scum, he isn't going to get much help in future. So he needs to pick a mainly town wagon. We now know that Kak's wagon was mainly town, so it was a good choice for him. But what does that tell us about the other two wagons? Sure they could be all town and scum were hiding on minor wagons and bussing DemonRHK, but there is also a good possibility that scum have built at least one of those counter wagons to at least give DemonRHK a chance of survival.

This is my main reason for first suspecting rdriveria. As the third placed man on Hamilton he pushed it to major wagon status. If rdriveria is scum DemonEHK would be better joining the Kak wagon and prey for rdriveria or other scum to follow him there.

Now we now know scum didn't save DemonRHK, but that doesn't mean that DemonRHK wasn't planning for a save.

Rdriveria then gets roleblocked N2. On that night there is no only one kill. Either the kill was a WW kill and Scum!Rdriveria was roleblocked from his kill or maybe Watcher!Brainbomb was killed by Scum and Janitor!Rdriveria was blocked from cleaning up. Another possibility is that WW!Rdriveria was blocked (if so thanks as I could've been the WW target N2).

I also think Chaqa and Rdriveria are in same scum team. See my post on p150 where Chaqa refuses to vote for his scum read rdriveria when rdr was a viable wagon. I know chaqa disputes part of this but it's worth a re-read when i die.

My final scum pick is chaqa for the reason stated above.

So in summary, scum are Celaph, Jamiet, Rdriveria, Chaqa and 1 other (I'm tempted to look at Damo maybe but that's not a strong read).

I find this post very good from Maniac. Not only making me feel townier about him but also eliminating my earlier scum team claim: Macca, Rivera, Maniac. I'm still strong about rivera-macca being scum together.

Could you explain why you think me and Macca are scum together?

[yavuzovic]

(I just wanted to see how you'd react)

[dargorygel]

cause dargo is not the cop

So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

Why don't you tell us who it is?

lol
Because I do not know who it is.
I do not claim to know.
But you are saying that the WW is not chomping me BECAUSE I am not really the cop. But how would the WW know that? You are drawing a picture of a WW who can read my role PM better than I can.

You are attributing a reason for the WW not to eat me that is based solely on your presupposition, that I am not the cop. By your reasoning, and based on what has been presented in the room, you or macca are the best candidates for WW.

I do not think you believe that.

You are just seeing nothing but neon lights DARG AIN'T COP.

I have not decided, yet, if I think that persistence is scummy.

[rdrivera2005]

If Chaqa is not the dk today Town blocker should block Chaqa again. If maniac is not eaten this would strongly indicate Chaqa is WW (or Maniac himself is).

Or WW could just not eat tonight, avoiding missing the, frankly unsure (at least I am), Maniac, and getting an easy miskill.

Good reasoning here.

[Hamilton Brian]

I start to doubt what was in my head earlier

Me all game...

[yavuzovic]

Could you explain why you think me and Macca are scum together?

I did

[yavuzovic]

I think you’re confusing my points on coasting and listening to dead people. It’s a conversation for tomorrow.

This is a very very bad post

[rdrivera2005]

While I agree that he's been coasting a little, I do not believe Celaph is the best kill for today. There are much more scummier people around.

I'll happily vote for a maniac wagon if it pops off.



(Or y'all could see the light and join me here on Dargo...)

I can't join Dargo and would explain why (again). We have a Cop for sure (because scum have a Stalker). So, if Dargo is fake claiming the real Cop will counter claim at some point. So, unless we have a janitored night kill we shouldn't be voting Dargo.
Ghug, a town PR also explained this and I don't understand why people still can't understand.
Also, if there is other cop he should probably claim and list his scans at next EON.

[rdrivera2005]

Could you explain why you think me and Macca are scum together?

I did

And I answered to this in the same page. You seem to have a hard time evolving your reads.

And you are voting the main wagon with a reason I can't understand. I feel like you know scum decided to kill Ghug to try to frame Kgray.

##vote Yavuzovic

[dargorygel]

So why haven't i been consumed by the WW?

Perhaps, as bona sideways suggests, the WW does not believe my claim in all of its convoluted mess.

Perhaps the WW fears the blocking power of the doc.

Perhaps the WW fear(ed) the revealing power of the watcher.

Perhaps the WW is holding their killing choices till later. Usually in late game lots of PR's and vanillas are known.

I'm ALSO not sure why the scum team hasn't killed me, either. But they HAVE the ability to disempower me every turn. And there is nothing else happening to require their RB. So they can keep this up forever.

They are probably trying for a perfect record (not unusual) but they hit very likely targets each night. And THAT is my fault. If I had not revealed, they would be less sure of their options.

I am not quite saying they have done fear kills each night... but they have hit either well-known solvers or a pretty obvious PR each night.

Set up 3 is the worst for us, and the best for scum, obv.

Damo's analysis is so damo. And his retraction from conclusion pushes me town on him.

Let me know if you think I should claim who I have tried to investigate the last two nights.

I'll be busy most of today. But part two of this Day look ok.

I am feeling less confident in brain's read of celaph... I might have been falling into the "dead folk know more" syndrome.

I could most happily vote today for celaph, maniac, HB, yavu. Jamie, chaqa, and kak deserve an ISO.

Have a good day!

[Hamilton Brian]

I think you’re confusing my points on coasting and listening to dead people. It’s a conversation for tomorrow.

This is a very very bad post

Your post is a very very bad post.
Seriously, what's bad about it other than reflecting my desire to put the phone away and go to bed?

[dargorygel]

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

I'm intrigued with, and torn by, this. I'm fascinated with the numbers and my statistics days are long behind me. I also think you've got a good point addressing "all what happened" being more relevant than the numbers.

Was there a game where damo's statistics were valuable and helped town win?

Yes. Without listing games... I have found his stats valuable. His numbers are NOT guarantees, and he doesn't claim they are. "Likely" does not mean "is." But it has helped me see possibilities more objectively.

[yavuzovic]

I think you’re confusing my points on coasting and listening to dead people. It’s a conversation for tomorrow.

This is a very very bad post

Your post is a very very bad post.
Seriously, what's bad about it other than reflecting my desire to put the phone away and go to bed?

I thought you meant the next game day as tomorrow

[yavuzovic]

Rivera please stop looking for a reason to vote me. I clearly updated my reads as you can see my vote. I still scumread you, and your defense may be a temporary justification but it doesn't make you obv!town.