MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Bonatogether]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

[kgray]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

What did you think about kak's suggestion that darg could still be town protecting the real cop?

[dargorygel]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

[Bonatogether]

"we should" ... does nothing

but always saying

kgray and celaph scumteammmmmmm

if I had these strong thoughts, I'd vote the heck out of it. But alright, you do you.

Am I correct in assuming this means you don't have strong thoughts/opinions?

[Bonatogether]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

What did you think about kak's suggestion that darg could still be town protecting the real cop?

It's dumb

[Bonatogether]

I would guess I was roleblocked because someone took the Werewolf accusations seriously.

I am seriously wondering why the Werewolf hasn't chomped on Dargo yet.

cause dargo is not the cop

So you can narrow down who the WW is by who does not believe I am the cop?

Why don't you tell us who it is?

[damo666]

Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.

[Chaqa]

Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.

Damo using math is his scumtell

[Jamiet99uk]

Maniac is the lowest poster still alive.
Macca is second on that list.

I see Macca reading.

Hello, Macca.

Your thoughts please?

[damo666]

Ghug's late change of mind implies he had no solid info.

Statistically we should vote rdr or Chaqa.

Damo using math is his scumtell

Nai

[damo666]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

[rdrivera2005]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

[TheMadMonarch]

Maniac is the lowest poster still alive.
Macca is second on that list.

I see Macca reading.

Hello, Macca.

Your thoughts please?

Incoming!

[yavuzovic]

Damn the scum are good hunters

[rdrivera2005]

I would also like to rd to write his thoughts openly, if you are mafia like ghug is suggesting, you shouldn't deny, and if you are town, you would want to do that anyway

I don't understand what you meant with this. I have been writing my thoughts as openly as I can, so if you have something you don't get just ask.

Currently I am scumreading Yav and Maniac and I keep flip floping on HB, Jamiet and Damo. This are the one's I want to get in the block today.
I also fail to have a solid read on Celaph, Macca and Bona.

I townread Dargo, you, Kgray, Food and Chaqa.

I can't help starting to think something I shouldn't.

How scum was able to hit PR after PR each night. Either scum are brilliant at PR reading or really lucky. But looking all PR and the one scum that flipped plus the Cop claimant they are all experienced players.

What if the roles weren't assigned at random and scum can notice it? I know I shouldn't be suspecting the GM, but I can't stop thinking on this.

[damo666]

Assuming darg is cop and scum RBd past 2 nights then:

From the pov of a townsperson who is not the roleblocker the probability of Jamie being town = probability of me being town =
0.5×(7/8+7/12)= 0.729

Probability Chaqa is town = probability rdr is town = 6/11 = 0.545 (since they can't be the town blocker)

Probability any other given person is town = 7/12 = 0.583

Therefore for a non-blocker townsperson the optimal play is to vote rdr or Chaqa. There is a 67%+ chance at least 1 of them is scum.

From the town blocker's pov the probability of whoever they blocked out of me and Jamie being town is 7/12, the probability of the other one is 6/7. The probability of any other player being town is 7/12. So from the blocker's pov they could vote anyone apart from the person they didn't block N1, however as it is optimal for the other townies to vote either rdr or Chaqa the town blocker should do likewise to support them.

Conclusion ALL townsfolk should vote either rdr or Chaqa.

Do you really believe on this bullshit? You just ignore all what happened and what have been said to focus on the math part that change the probability from being town from 58.3% to 54.5% (I didn't check the math).

This is lazy and scummy.

Neither you nor Chaqa have obvtowned (sorry ghug) and no other player has obvscummed so I see you and Chaqa as the 2 best targets today.

Darg is obviously off the table as should Jamie and me be.
Bona and kgray shouldn't be contemplated because of the crucial timing of their D1 votes.
Food screams town.
Celaph, Macca, Ham and Maniac are possibles but without additional evidence I see no reason to vote any of them ahead of you or Chaqa.

[yavuzovic]

Yav: Moves from Macca to Maniac making it Maniac 8, Flum 5. I see this as town Yav.

@Maniac, you townread me because I voted you over Flum, and if you're claiming that you are town, I voted for another town and this doesn't make any sense. This is indeed towny and I'm happy I didn't vote for Flum, but I think so because I scumread you. If you were both town, I could fairly be a scum sitting on a random town wagon.
Are you giving up?
Please reply to this.

[damo666]

Sorry forgot Kak. In the celaph etc pile.

[damo666]

Damn the scum are good hunters

ghug as last nk's kill was a no brainer, the fact he was PR was lucky.
Vecna was always going to be a strong N1 candidate, again they got lucky. And brain wasn't to difficult.

So, no, not especially.

[damo666]

Sorry forgot Kak. In the celaph etc pile.

And yav