Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[damo666]

Victory can only be determined at the end of a phase, come on.

This is actually quite important. I would have interpreted it as game over so not as obvious as you imply (although I do bow to your GM experience). I do think it deserves an answer.

If that was the case, kills usually happen before doc saves in normal adjudication, so in any such game, if Mafia needed one more NK to win, they would win despite a successful docsave on their target... which is nonsense.

It's not 1:1 equivalence though. The docsave is of the person subject to the kill.

The 2 victims here, 1 death and 1 infection are different people.

You may well be right but I still think it's a question worthy of an answer.

[Maniac]

@jamie - it doesn't matter if we know if the flipped person is infected. We have to deal with worse case scenerios and Scum have to do the same.

So if we believe celaph is NOT alien, then kill anyone else today and scum have to kill Celaph tonight (unless we hit the actual alien). So we direct two kills. At this point town are better of killing me a useless townie with a radio who might be infected than Celaph.

The way I see it Kill me (or ghug, fox, worchsJ poss damo or vecna) and scum kill celaph.

Kill celaph and scum or alien kill you tonight.

My win con is actually ##vote Maniac and hope I'm infected rather than [][]vote Celaph knowing he is infected.

[dargorygel]

VOTE COUNT 5.02
Celaph (8) damo666, Jamiet99uk, BobMcBob, Foxcastle, ghug, worcej, rdrivera2005, Vecna
Damo666 (1) celaph
Maniac (1) Maniac

Celaph is leading.

Day will conclude in 5 hours and 44 minutes

[rdrivera2005]

@Maniac - At this point I don't know if you just can't understand the situation or if you want to get cred with this bizarre own vote or whatever.

How the fuck you can be so sure Celaph isn't the Alien to vote for yourself?
It's not your wincon to vote yourself as any alignment and I think this is just theater and you are either Alien or scum. I wish I could call your bluff and just kill you, butv unless you are the Alien this is against my wincon.

[damo666]

@Maniac - At this point I don't know if you just can't understand the situation or if you want to get cred with this bizarre own vote or whatever.

How the fuck you can be so sure Celaph isn't the Alien to vote for yourself?
It's not your wincon to vote yourself as any alignment and I think this is just theater and you are either Alien or scum. I wish I could call your bluff and just kill you, butv unless you are the Alien this is against my wincon.

I think he's trying to make the point the point that we're probably better off killing non-celpah but self voting is plain daft.

I'd vote worcej but we need at least 7. If 6 others are happy jo join so be it otherwise I stick to celaph.

[ghug]

Maniac's gamble is worth consideration.

It would be a gamble so let's make bold assumptions.

1 Vecna is telling the truth. (If he's lying alien he almost certainly is going to win anyway).

2. Maniac promoting the discussion means he is not alien.

3. Fox moaning that alien is overpowered indicates he is not alien.

4. Bob's insistence on being included as possible alien means he isn't.

5. I know some of you won't like this but accept Jamie's reason about me.

This leaves just ghug and worcej.

Taking all the assumptions as true, if we pick one (I would pick worcej), then

a) 50% chance killing alien
b) approx 25% chance of killing infected
c) approx 25% chance of immediate alien victory

I think c is just too big a risk to take versus 100% alien/infectee celaph.

If celaph flips non alien (as I suspect) I implore scum to NK one of this pair.

If no NK occurs we can then gamble which is the alien (or scum can sacrifice a member to tell us, Town could offer up a PR in return maybe).

If one or both of you are scum kill outside the pair and hope for the best (Vecna say).

We can then discuss on the day which of the 2 to dk.


Summary

Celaph still the best option for the dk today.

If scumpair does not include ghug or worcej NK one of that pair.

If scumpair exactly ghug/worcej do what you think best.

If ghug or worcej scum with someone else then um work it out for yourselves, I've got a headache.

Lol this is hot garbage. Even ignoring all the shitty logic to clear people, you end up both acknowledging the chance of celaph being alien and giving a 100% chance that the alien is me or worcej.

Why is Bob clear of being alien for acknowledging he's an option and Maniac clear for promoting discussion, but not me, who's been the loudest about organizing us to fight it since yesterday?

Why the fuck do you still not understand that framing strategic discussions with an assumption that you're town is problematic?

I'm getting increasingly confident you are the alien.

[ghug]

Btw, our math has been wrong hasnt it?

Its day5 now, so 4 infections in total. We have 10 people alive. Tomorrow it will be 8 people alive (or 9 if scum NK or hit the alien).

If Celaph is the alien, even after killing him, were dealing with 3 potentially remaining infected players (N1-N3 infections).

If he is not the alien, Were still dealing with 2 infections and a remaining alien, plus a new infection tonight, so tomorrow will be 8 players with 4 potential people with alien DNA. This means that if damo is not town or fails to use the kit on someone infected, and scum fail to kill an infected player, we cannot kill the alien tomorrow (even if we figure out who it is). This is ofcourse the worst case scenario. Even if this happens, if the alien has to use his votes, scum can kill one of the vote-swapped players, BUT the alien will also infect a new player - Meaning the alien will have 4 DNA infections on a population of 7 players and it is game over.

So unless at some point in the game we killed one of the infected players via day or night kill, today potentially is our last day of having a shot at killing the alien in the worst case scenario. The game might be over depending on night action succes.

The alien can control max 2 votes.

I like this from Vecna though, makes him less likely to be alien.

[ghug]

This is not true.

Alien controls only N1 and N2 infected at this stage.

He can control the votes straight away, read the text.

But I did forget about the max 2 votes controlled lol

Yep you're right. I guess we are both human or stupid or forgetful aliens.

So deeply full of shit.

[worcej]

Please remember my volte face from my suicidal vote was in light of the info a kit holder can target themselves.

Tbh I wasn't expecting that answer because of the use of the word 'another' in the set up.

still, you know well enough that we couldnt trust you to both have a kit and use it on yourself in the case you were alien and lying

the whole "i know im innocent so shut up and take me at my word despite everything" approach doesnt sit well with me

Somewhat agree here. Damo saying he would do something and then not actually doing it really strikes me as scummy.

Scum want the alien infection count to be relatively close, forcing town to deal with the alien more than them.

[worcej]

##unend

I feel that when the game lose momentum it usually doesn't end well for town.

Agree here - people get lazy and stop trying hard. All it takes is one person doing this and it usually screws the whole game up for us.

I find anyone who wanted to end the phase more town than scum in this setting.

[rdrivera2005]

Maniac's gamble is worth consideration.

It would be a gamble so let's make bold assumptions.

1 Vecna is telling the truth. (If he's lying alien he almost certainly is going to win anyway).

2. Maniac promoting the discussion means he is not alien.

3. Fox moaning that alien is overpowered indicates he is not alien.

4. Bob's insistence on being included as possible alien means he isn't.

5. I know some of you won't like this but accept Jamie's reason about me.

This leaves just ghug and worcej.

Taking all the assumptions as true, if we pick one (I would pick worcej), then

a) 50% chance killing alien
b) approx 25% chance of killing infected
c) approx 25% chance of immediate alien victory

I think c is just too big a risk to take versus 100% alien/infectee celaph.

If celaph flips non alien (as I suspect) I implore scum to NK one of this pair.

If no NK occurs we can then gamble which is the alien (or scum can sacrifice a member to tell us, Town could offer up a PR in return maybe).

If one or both of you are scum kill outside the pair and hope for the best (Vecna say).

We can then discuss on the day which of the 2 to dk.


Summary

Celaph still the best option for the dk today.

If scumpair does not include ghug or worcej NK one of that pair.

If scumpair exactly ghug/worcej do what you think best.

If ghug or worcej scum with someone else then um work it out for yourselves, I've got a headache.

Lol this is hot garbage. Even ignoring all the shitty logic to clear people, you end up both acknowledging the chance of celaph being alien and giving a 100% chance that the alien is me or worcej.

Why is Bob clear of being alien for acknowledging he's an option and Maniac clear for promoting discussion, but not me, who's been the loudest about organizing us to fight it since yesterday?

Why the fuck do you still not understand that framing strategic discussions with an assumption that you're town is problematic?

I'm getting increasingly confident you are the alien.

What gives me pause about Damo is he can't accept a basic statistical fact. Celaph have 50% chance to be the Alien and you won't find better odds elsewhere.
It's simple, only two people can test positive on N2 (Alien and N1 infected). It's 50/50 on which is Celaph and any other analysis is based on non objective factors ("I don't think Celaph is Alien because I am such a brilliant mastermind") or aren't in good faith.

[dargorygel]

##call GM

If we are at say 4 alien DNA out of 9 players at EOD and alien infects 1 more player and scum kill an infected player. Because the infection happens first do we move to 5 alien DNA/ 9 player and game over alien win, or does the scum kill happen a bit later but simultaneously in this situation so we could be 4 alien DNA / 8 players and still in with a chance of victory if we keep killing alien DNA?

Victory is determined at the end of the phase.

[rdrivera2005]

Btw, our math has been wrong hasnt it?

Its day5 now, so 4 infections in total. We have 10 people alive. Tomorrow it will be 8 people alive (or 9 if scum NK or hit the alien).

If Celaph is the alien, even after killing him, were dealing with 3 potentially remaining infected players (N1-N3 infections).

If he is not the alien, Were still dealing with 2 infections and a remaining alien, plus a new infection tonight, so tomorrow will be 8 players with 4 potential people with alien DNA. This means that if damo is not town or fails to use the kit on someone infected, and scum fail to kill an infected player, we cannot kill the alien tomorrow (even if we figure out who it is). This is ofcourse the worst case scenario. Even if this happens, if the alien has to use his votes, scum can kill one of the vote-swapped players, BUT the alien will also infect a new player - Meaning the alien will have 4 DNA infections on a population of 7 players and it is game over.

So unless at some point in the game we killed one of the infected players via day or night kill, today potentially is our last day of having a shot at killing the alien in the worst case scenario. The game might be over depending on night action succes.

The alien can control max 2 votes.

I like this from Vecna though, makes him less likely to be alien.

If Vecna is Alien the game is over. And if both Maniac and Damo are town it's better just concede.

[Jamiet99uk]

What gives me pause about Damo is he can't accept a basic statistical fact. Celaph have 50% chance to be the Alien and you won't find better odds elsewhere.
It's simple, only two people can test positive on N2 (Alien and N1 infected). It's 50/50 on which is Celaph and any other analysis is based on non objective factors ("I don't think Celaph is Alien because I am such a brilliant mastermind") or aren't in good faith.

This is very well articulated, Rdrivera.

I am entirely happy with staying on Celaph. As you say, there is at the very least a 50% chance Celaph is Alien and in the worst case scenario at least we remove an infected person.

[Maniac]

Well Jamie has spoken. If he is never going to move then rest of today is waste of time.

I feel this is win/win at the moment.

If Celaph now flip alien, yeah go town.

If he flips an infected town, I can troll you all forever that you didn’t listen to me

[Maniac]

##vote Celaph

Still need you soul reads before EOD Celaph.

[worcej]

Maniac's gamble is worth consideration.

It would be a gamble so let's make bold assumptions.

1 Vecna is telling the truth. (If he's lying alien he almost certainly is going to win anyway).

2. Maniac promoting the discussion means he is not alien.

3. Fox moaning that alien is overpowered indicates he is not alien.

4. Bob's insistence on being included as possible alien means he isn't.

5. I know some of you won't like this but accept Jamie's reason about me.

This leaves just ghug and worcej.

Taking all the assumptions as true, if we pick one (I would pick worcej), then

a) 50% chance killing alien
b) approx 25% chance of killing infected
c) approx 25% chance of immediate alien victory

I think c is just too big a risk to take versus 100% alien/infectee celaph.

If celaph flips non alien (as I suspect) I implore scum to NK one of this pair.

If no NK occurs we can then gamble which is the alien (or scum can sacrifice a member to tell us, Town could offer up a PR in return maybe).

If one or both of you are scum kill outside the pair and hope for the best (Vecna say).

We can then discuss on the day which of the 2 to dk.


Summary

Celaph still the best option for the dk today.

If scumpair does not include ghug or worcej NK one of that pair.

If scumpair exactly ghug/worcej do what you think best.

If ghug or worcej scum with someone else then um work it out for yourselves, I've got a headache.

3 and 4 are weak reasons and, honestly, the exact plays I would expect the alien to be making.

[damo666]

I get scumread if I say too little and alienread for discussing lol.

If you read my discussion of Maniac's suggestion I actually conclude that killing celaph is the best option.

Should have ended 20 hours ago. We are no further forward.

[damo666]

##end

Let's get on with it.

[worcej]

@jamie - it doesn't matter if we know if the flipped person is infected. We have to deal with worse case scenerios and Scum have to do the same.

So if we believe celaph is NOT alien, then kill anyone else today and scum have to kill Celaph tonight (unless we hit the actual alien). So we direct two kills. At this point town are better of killing me a useless townie with a radio who might be infected than Celaph.

The way I see it Kill me (or ghug, fox, worchsJ poss damo or vecna) and scum kill celaph.

Kill celaph and scum or alien kill you tonight.

My win con is actually ##vote Maniac and hope I'm infected rather than [][]vote Celaph knowing he is infected.

I've read this, along with your other posts, and cannot understand why you want to chance killing anyone other than a confirmed infected.

I cannot think of any motivation other than Alien to want this.