Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[Maniac]

*Rdriveria not alien because of Jamie’s neg scan result

[ghug]

@ghug we don’t have to be super confident we’d hit the alien if we vote for someone other than Celaph. Hitting someone else who is infected would also extend the game for us.

So people we shouldn’t kill today

Jamie (obviously) yep he could be infected but he can keep getting scan results. I also think he would’ve been a poor alien infection target once he was almost clear. Alien would’ve reasoned that scum would kill him before EOG

Damo, because we find out if he has alien DNA tomorrow if Jamie survives the night

Bob - would the alien kill scum if they had a gun and the RA was exposed? I think not. Also unlikely infected because alien would reason an almost clear would be NK by scum before EOG

Rdriveria - not alien if Vecna is to be believed.

Celaph - for the reasons I stated earlier an unlikely alien and the purpose of this exercise we’re considering a non-Celaph kill.

Which leaves five of us possibly three of us are infected and one of us is likely alien. I know that we could’ve already killed an infected person and their is a chance Rdriveria was infected and cured the same night so it’s not quite a 4/5 chance we hit alien DNA, but if we’ve already killed an infected player or RDriveria was infected and cured then there is less urgency to kill alien DNA anyway.

Also if we are almost clearing Celaph of being scum then even if we miss alien and alien DNA we could still hit scum and still be in the game if an infected person has already died or been cured.

So I’m summary Celaph isn’t a bad kill and in many ways the safe bet, but if we wanted to take a chance there are other options for today’s kill.

I strongly disagree with your clearing Bob of alienness. Other than that, I'm pretty disinclined to risk the entire game on our collective ability to read someone as third party (they're a scourge upon the game in part because they can behave exactly like town without issue) or get lucky and hit an infected person.

Where did Jamie say he scanned damo? I missed that.

[BobMcBob]

@ghug we don’t have to be super confident we’d hit the alien if we vote for someone other than Celaph. Hitting someone else who is infected would also extend the game for us.

So people we shouldn’t kill today

Jamie (obviously) yep he could be infected but he can keep getting scan results. I also think he would’ve been a poor alien infection target once he was almost clear. Alien would’ve reasoned that scum would kill him before EOG

Damo, because we find out if he has alien DNA tomorrow if Jamie survives the night

Bob - would the alien kill scum if they had a gun and the RA was exposed? I think not. Also unlikely infected because alien would reason an almost clear would be NK by scum before EOG

Rdriveria - not alien if Vecna is to be believed.

Celaph - for the reasons I stated earlier an unlikely alien and the purpose of this exercise we’re considering a non-Celaph kill.

Which leaves five of us possibly three of us are infected and one of us is likely alien. I know that we could’ve already killed an infected person and their is a chance Rdriveria was infected and cured the same night so it’s not quite a 4/5 chance we hit alien DNA, but if we’ve already killed an infected player or RDriveria was infected and cured then there is less urgency to kill alien DNA anyway.

Also if we are almost clearing Celaph of being scum then even if we miss alien and alien DNA we could still hit scum and still be in the game if an infected person has already died or been cured.

So I’m summary Celaph isn’t a bad kill and in many ways the safe bet, but if we wanted to take a chance there are other options for today’s kill.

I strongly disagree with your clearing Bob of alienness. Other than that, I'm pretty disinclined to risk the entire game on our collective ability to read someone as third party (they're a scourge upon the game in part because they can behave exactly like town without issue) or get lucky and hit an infected person.

Where did Jamie say he scanned damo? I missed that.

i can agree on this
i definitely should not be treated as any less likely to be alien than anyone else who isnt clear
i agree i probably wouldnt have played like that as alien but also i have a history of never dying before eog as town so i might be a good infect target

other than that, i think maniac is right to say that celaph is reasonably unlikely alien but due to the nature of the role it makes more sense to kill him today
because outside of that i have no clue who would be alien really

id probably still pick damo, but not everyone would agree, and im not confident enough to go all in on that, and alien has vote manip up their sleeve so we need to be very careful around wagon size, which is less possible when we have disagreement

[Maniac]

@Ghug - on a re-read Jamie hasn’t said who he has scanned. I don’t know how I got that impression. Maybe I read the ‘I didn’t not scan Damo on N3’ to be ‘It wasn’t N3 when I scanned Damo’. I don’t know. But it does change a lot of my thinking. Damo now joins the group of six we maybe could kill if we don’t kill Celaph. But crucially what if we kill someone that Jamie has already scanned? Regardless of the scan result we deny ourselves info. I still think considering alternative kills is worth talking about. Bob is right that we need to have a clear majority because of possible vote manipulation. I suppose Jamie could lead any new wagon which would ensure a big majority and ensure we don’t kill who he has already scanned.

One of the big problems with me looking at the alternatives is that it requires a change of mindset. Often town fall into the mindset of ‘I’m town, killing anyone but me is good’. Obv most of the time that mindset is fine, but it can hinder objective thinking too. So when I say let’s consider alternatives to slam-dunk Celaph that opens up the possibility that I may die tonight and I know I’m town. But it’s still correct to consider these options and if town
Players reading this shouldn’t be scared they may be killed, they should think what gives town the best chance of winning.

[Vecna]

@rdrivera/maniac do you feel anything happened in the phone QT to cause scum to NK jasnah day2?

[rdrivera2005]

@Ghug - on a re-read Jamie hasn’t said who he has scanned. I don’t know how I got that impression. Maybe I read the ‘I didn’t not scan Damo on N3’ to be ‘It wasn’t N3 when I scanned Damo’. I don’t know. But it does change a lot of my thinking. Damo now joins the group of six we maybe could kill if we don’t kill Celaph. But crucially what if we kill someone that Jamie has already scanned? Regardless of the scan result we deny ourselves info. I still think considering alternative kills is worth talking about. Bob is right that we need to have a clear majority because of possible vote manipulation. I suppose Jamie could lead any new wagon which would ensure a big majority and ensure we don’t kill who he has already scanned.

One of the big problems with me looking at the alternatives is that it requires a change of mindset. Often town fall into the mindset of ‘I’m town, killing anyone but me is good’. Obv most of the time that mindset is fine, but it can hinder objective thinking too. So when I say let’s consider alternatives to slam-dunk Celaph that opens up the possibility that I may die tonight and I know I’m town. But it’s still correct to consider these options and if town
Players reading this shouldn’t be scared they may be killed, they should think what gives town the best chance of winning.

Maniac, you have problems with the Math. For all we know, Alien choise ri infect every night, so we have 4 infected plus Alien (5). Considering Vecns is telling the truth, I was infected and cured, so we have 3 infected plus Alien.
If we don't kill infected, Alien infects one more player and unless we trust scum to hit an infected (and not the Alien, that is NK immune) it's game over. Do you have such a strong read that you will go all in on this? I don't.

[rdrivera2005]

@rdrivera/maniac do you feel anything happened in the phone QT to cause scum to NK jasnah day2?

Well, I missed all EMC messages on the phone QT. I wasn't online and they were deleted and we should not talk about it. But it was N1.

On N2 we agreed to work as masons and vote together. I think this explains that weird Jasnah message about sheeping me (in fact he will be calling the vote with a code). Our targets are most likely Fox, Brain and Vecna (hence my comment about Jasnah scum reading Vecna that I didn't explain at the time, it was on QT and not main thread).

[damo666]

##unend

Maniac has made some interesting posts and promotes discussion. So I'll forget ending.

[Vecna]

@rdrivera/maniac do you feel anything happened in the phone QT to cause scum to NK jasnah day2?

Well, I missed all EMC messages on the phone QT. I wasn't online and they were deleted and we should not talk about it. But it was N1.

On N2 we agreed to work as masons and vote together. I think this explains that weird Jasnah message about sheeping me (in fact he will be calling the vote with a code). Our targets are most likely Fox, Brain and Vecna (hence my comment about Jasnah scum reading Vecna that I didn't explain at the time, it was on QT and not main thread).

Nothing to suggest Jasnah was a PR I assume then?

[damo666]

Maniac's gamble is worth consideration.

It would be a gamble so let's make bold assumptions.

1 Vecna is telling the truth. (If he's lying alien he almost certainly is going to win anyway).

2. Maniac promoting the discussion means he is not alien.

3. Fox moaning that alien is overpowered indicates he is not alien.

4. Bob's insistence on being included as possible alien means he isn't.

5. I know some of you won't like this but accept Jamie's reason about me.

This leaves just ghug and worcej.

Taking all the assumptions as true, if we pick one (I would pick worcej), then

a) 50% chance killing alien
b) approx 25% chance of killing infected
c) approx 25% chance of immediate alien victory

I think c is just too big a risk to take versus 100% alien/infectee celaph.

If celaph flips non alien (as I suspect) I implore scum to NK one of this pair.

If no NK occurs we can then gamble which is the alien (or scum can sacrifice a member to tell us, Town could offer up a PR in return maybe).

If one or both of you are scum kill outside the pair and hope for the best (Vecna say).

We can then discuss on the day which of the 2 to dk.


Summary

Celaph still the best option for the dk today.

If scumpair does not include ghug or worcej NK one of that pair.

If scumpair exactly ghug/worcej do what you think best.

If ghug or worcej scum with someone else then um work it out for yourselves, I've got a headache.

[Vecna]

Btw, our math has been wrong hasnt it?

Its day5 now, so 4 infections in total. We have 10 people alive. Tomorrow it will be 8 people alive (or 9 if scum NK or hit the alien).

If Celaph is the alien, even after killing him, were dealing with 3 potentially remaining infected players (N1-N3 infections).

If he is not the alien, Were still dealing with 2 infections and a remaining alien, plus a new infection tonight, so tomorrow will be 8 players with 4 potential people with alien DNA. This means that if damo is not town or fails to use the kit on someone infected, and scum fail to kill an infected player, we cannot kill the alien tomorrow (even if we figure out who it is). This is ofcourse the worst case scenario. Even if this happens, if the alien has to use his votes, scum can kill one of the vote-swapped players, BUT the alien will also infect a new player - Meaning the alien will have 4 DNA infections on a population of 7 players and it is game over.

So unless at some point in the game we killed one of the infected players via day or night kill, today potentially is our last day of having a shot at killing the alien in the worst case scenario. The game might be over depending on night action succes.

[Vecna]

Also, you guys forget: if im the alien, I have already won at this point, because Id have 5 votes at my disposal and Celaph would not be the person dying today because id simply tie the vote. Even with damo using a kit and scum killing an infected target, with a reinfection id still have 4 DNA infected people tomorrow so id be in auto win.

unless one infected target died, im effectively cleared of being the alien

[damo666]

My kit

Obviously we don't want to give alien any advantageous info so I will not be declaring my intention in advance.

Opinions sought on:

A) Do I use my kit tonight or save it pending Jamie's reveal?
B) Are there any players I should obviously exclude?

[Vecna]

If celaph does not flip alien, you'd have to coordinate with scum and jamiet to not hit the same target.

Im still salty that people blocked my questions to jamiet last night, and he listened to them over me.

We couldve been in a much better position here.

[Vecna]

well, actually thats probably not true.

Rdrivera being scanned non-dna while I used my kit on someone else (even if id manage to clear another infection) probably wouldve been disastrous.

[damo666]

Also, you guys forget: if im the alien, I have already won at this point, because Id have 5 votes at my disposal and Celaph would not be the person dying today because id simply tie the vote. Even with damo using a kit and scum killing an infected target, with a reinfection id still have 4 DNA infected people tomorrow so id be in auto win.

unless one infected target died, im effectively cleared of being the alien

This is not true.

Alien controls only N1 and N2 infected at this stage.

[Vecna]

Also, you guys forget: if im the alien, I have already won at this point, because Id have 5 votes at my disposal and Celaph would not be the person dying today because id simply tie the vote. Even with damo using a kit and scum killing an infected target, with a reinfection id still have 4 DNA infected people tomorrow so id be in auto win.

unless one infected target died, im effectively cleared of being the alien

This is not true.

Alien controls only N1 and N2 infected at this stage.

He can control the votes straight away, read the text.

But I did forget about the max 2 votes controlled lol

[damo666]

Also, you guys forget: if im the alien, I have already won at this point, because Id have 5 votes at my disposal and Celaph would not be the person dying today because id simply tie the vote. Even with damo using a kit and scum killing an infected target, with a reinfection id still have 4 DNA infected people tomorrow so id be in auto win.

unless one infected target died, im effectively cleared of being the alien

This is not true.

Alien controls only N1 and N2 infected at this stage.

He can control the votes straight away, read the text.

But I did forget about the max 2 votes controlled lol

Yep you're right. I guess we are both human or stupid or forgetful aliens.

[Vecna]

Maybe we should set it up so that we distribute the votes on Celaph and Ghug to be a wagon tie with 1 minute to go before EoD.

Then have a certain number of people swap last minute, to increase the odds of forcing the alien to use his pawns and have him not have enough time to altar it.

[Vecna]

funny thing is: this setup has so many little details, that genuine townslips have probably happened all over the place.

Both Tham and Brainbomb kinda slipped since they had way too good knowledge of exactly how the scum operated.