Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[damo666]

So now the optimum strategy is to daykill celaph and allow me cure myself tonight. Scum kill rdr. If kill fails he is exposed as alien and we dk him following day. If rdr survives because he is scum then obviously he is not the alien.

If celaph not alien we kill any newly exposed contaminee/alien tomorrow. This keeps number live [alien+infectees] below alien threshold. If no new info you then I guess you have to dk me.

Under this strategy celaph alien cannot win as no more infectees.

rdr alien can win only if he currently has 4 live infectees (unlikely) because infection occurs before kit in night order

max live [alien = infected] total
current 5 10
dk celaph 4 9
rdr infects 5 9 rdr wins

if rdr has 3 infectees
current 4 10
dk celaph 3 9
rdr infects 4 9
I'm cured 3 9
scum nk of rdr fails
dk rdr D6 alien loses

alien damo cannot win since rdr is then cured

current 4 10
dk celaph 3 9
alien damo infects 4 9
wcs scum nk uninfected 4 8
you dk me D6

If the alien is outside the 3 of us we are basically doomed anyway I think

current 4 10
dk celaph 3 9
alien infects 4 9
nk an uninfected 4 8
dk me if no new info 4 7 alien wins

So, if we follow my plan only 4th party alien or a lucky rdr alien with 4 live infectees can win.

If you DK me now you alienrdr with 3 infectees can win as follows

current 4 10
dk me 3 9
rdr infects 4 9
scum nk other 4 8
dk celaph 3 7
rdr infects 4 7 rdr wins

##vote celaph

[Jamiet99uk]

I HAVE AN ANNOUNCEMENT TO MAKE
- PLEASE READ THIS CAREFULLY -
I WILL BE HAPPY TO ANSWER QUESTIONS

I did not scan Damo on N3.

GASP! But JamieT never lies as Town!

Well, suck it up, because I did today.

The truth is that I did scan Rdrivera N3. At EoN4 I got a result: Rdrivera had NO Alien DNA on N3 when I scanned him.

I believe this provides us with the following information:

1. Rdrivera cannot be the Alien unless somehow Alien!Rdrivera participated in the kill on Jasnah on N2.

2. If Vecna is telling the truth, then Rdrivera was probably infected as recently as last night - so in that case, well done Vecna on instantly removing the infection. (If Vecna is lying.... well, we'll come to that in due course)

Mechanics Clarification
I also got a clarification from the GM, after much wailing and gnashing of teeth, to the effect that while my Alien Researcher power cannot detect Alien DNA on the night of the infection, but only on subsequent nights, the user of a Reverse Alien DNA Kit can learn about an Alien DNA infection even if it only occurred on the same night. (This makes the Reverse DNA Kit more powerful than my own investigation and I don't think we realised this, but there you go).

From my perspective this clarification makes it fairly unlikely that Vecna was lying about his use of the DNA kit and the feedback he got. It appears quite likely that he did heal Rdrivera of Alien DNA (that Rdrivera had only just been infected with, most likely).

Sorry, Damo!
So why did I lie about having a positive Alien DNA result on Damo? A reaction test, of course. I wanted to see how Damo would react. My personal view is that Damo's reaction was pretty organic. Initially keen to preserve his own life, of course, but apparently open to being the daykill if that's what Town's safety requires. Certainly he reacted as if he believed my claim, which if nothing else makes it pretty impossible that he's the Alien and participated in the N2 Jasnah kill. If he's the Alien and he managed to produce such an organic response in the face of a potentially fatal scan result, then well done to him.

I think all of this, simply on the basis of mechanics, and the elimination of other likely suspects, significantly increases the likelihood that Celaph is actually the Alien.

##Vote Celaph.

Now that's a lot to digest and discuss, so please do let me have any questions you may wish to ask me.

[Jamiet99uk]

Apologies, Damo, but you'll have to run all of your numbers again because I just changed one of the key IV's. Sorry dude.

[Jamiet99uk]

Note: Sorry it took me so long to reveal all of this. I initially assumed a Reverse DNA Kit user would **not** have been able to detect the infection if it took place on N4, and that therefore Vecna might be lying. The GM took a long time to answer my query on this point. The GM's answer does not clear Vecna, but it gets rid of my specific theory that he could not have detected an infection N4.

[damo666]

Apologies, Damo, but you'll have to run all of your numbers again because I just changed one of the key IV's. Sorry dude.

Ugh! Gee thanks but well done I guess.

I'll rerun assuming ANO as alien.

[Jamiet99uk]

Apologies, Damo, but you'll have to run all of your numbers again because I just changed one of the key IV's. Sorry dude.

Ugh! Gee thanks but well done I guess.

I'll rerun assuming ANO as alien.

Note: Just in case anyone is confused, I don't have a "No Alien DNA" result on Damo. I don't have a Damo result at all.

My results so far are as follows:

N1: BunnyGo - NO ALIEN DNA
N2: Celaph - ALIEN DNA ALERT!
N3: Rdrivera - NO ALIEN DNA

[damo666]

Apologies, Damo, but you'll have to run all of your numbers again because I just changed one of the key IV's. Sorry dude.

Ugh! Gee thanks but well done I guess.

I'll rerun assuming ANO as alien.

If they already have 4 live infectees they are gonna win so let's assume 3

live [alien + infectees] out of Total Remaining
Now 4 10
dk celaph 3 9
alien infects 4 8
scum misses 4 7 alien wins
scum kills infectee 3 7 a bit of hope
scum ids alien 4 8 but then we dk alien

So if celaph is not alien we gotta hope there are currently less than 4 live infectees AND scum get lucky.

If celaph flips non-alien I can randomly use kit tonight and hope to cure an infectee.

I think we gotta

[Jamiet99uk]

Apologies, Damo, but you'll have to run all of your numbers again because I just changed one of the key IV's. Sorry dude.

Ugh! Gee thanks but well done I guess.

I'll rerun assuming ANO as alien.

If they already have 4 live infectees they are gonna win so let's assume 3

live [alien + infectees] out of Total Remaining
Now 4 10
dk celaph 3 9
alien infects 4 8
scum misses 4 7 alien wins
scum kills infectee 3 7 a bit of hope
scum ids alien 4 8 but then we dk alien

So if celaph is not alien we gotta hope there are currently less than 4 live infectees AND scum get lucky.

If celaph flips non-alien I can randomly use kit tonight and hope to cure an infectee.

I think we gotta

I think this is a good "maximum design basis" worst case scenario, as it were, yeah.

I think we must kill Celaph (and sorry if you're not Alien, Celaph) because the Mafia didn't do it for us last night, Celaph is the only person we're certain has Alien DNA, and we absolutely need to remove either the Alien or an infected person today, or the Alien would win.

[Jamiet99uk]

(Of course the minority report says that Celaph is infected Mafia, which is win-win for Town if true).

[BobMcBob]

this is very interesting indeed
i definitely did not anticipate such a large plot twist
i feel like it now does become necessary to ##vote celaph and hope for the best
we still do have a decent chance here, especially seeing as alien has almost certainly lost an infectee in the form of rdr

[Maniac]

As Celaph is only person now we have a positive alien scan on them ##vote Celaph is a no brained.

Be interesting to see what Damo result is. I don’t understand why Jamie says Damo reaction was organic. If Damo is alien his response is the same as far as I can see. If Damo is Alien he now knows he has a scan result being exposed tomorrow? Does that mean if Jamie dies tonight we have to kill Damo, or what if Jamie dies by alien hands that set Damo up for DK, have we just gifted the alien the game?

[Foxcastle]

##VOTE CELAPH

I do not see how Damo's reaction looks organic at all.

[Jamiet99uk]

As Celaph is only person now we have a positive alien scan on them ##vote Celaph is a no brained.

Be interesting to see what Damo result is. I don’t understand why Jamie says Damo reaction was organic. If Damo is alien his response is the same as far as I can see. If Damo is Alien he now knows he has a scan result being exposed tomorrow? Does that mean if Jamie dies tonight we have to kill Damo, or what if Jamie dies by alien hands that set Damo up for DK, have we just gifted the alien the game?

Clearly we disagree; I'm just being honest that Damo's reaction felt genuine to me. That's my opinion.

If someone has a save, I'm sure I'd appreciate it tonight.

Presumably the Mafia won't be foolish enough to kill me, but I assume the Alien will want to.

[Jamiet99uk]

As Celaph is only person now we have a positive alien scan on them ##vote Celaph is a no brained.

Be interesting to see what Damo result is. I don’t understand why Jamie says Damo reaction was organic. If Damo is alien his response is the same as far as I can see. If Damo is Alien he now knows he has a scan result being exposed tomorrow? Does that mean if Jamie dies tonight we have to kill Damo, or what if Jamie dies by alien hands that set Damo up for DK, have we just gifted the alien the game?

Clearly we disagree; I'm just being honest that Damo's reaction felt genuine to me. That's my opinion.

If someone has a save, I'm sure I'd appreciate it tonight.

Presumably the Mafia won't be foolish enough to kill me, but I assume the Alien will want to.

And if Celaph is the Alien (fingers crossed!) then hopefully the Mafia will be so grateful they'll allow me to stay alive.

[damo666]

Remember alien controls votes so whoever it is would rather me get DKd than celaph so we need celaph by a decent margin.

This message is directed at the four of

ghug vecna rdr celaph worcej

that are not alien.

[ghug]

I HAVE AN ANNOUNCEMENT TO MAKE
snip

Jamie leaned to lie! Well played. I'll snip my quote this one time just for you.

I'm not sure I agree damo's reaction was organic. The self vote followed by the immediate "let me live" analysis seemed more performance than acceptance. Obviously we don't kill him today, but something to keep in mind.

We do need to consider the Vecna as lying alien scenario. I don't think this is particularly likely because he commented on his action failing after jasnah's death, but if it is the case, we could still have five infected right now, and the only one we know is celaph.

##VOTE celaph

[damo666]

If celaph does not flip alien then alien is probably

worcej or ghug (or a sneaky Vecna)

scum may be able to eliminate one or 2 of these so perhaps we humans are not in such bad shape

[ghug]

As Celaph is only person now we have a positive alien scan on them ##vote Celaph is a no brained.

Be interesting to see what Damo result is. I don’t understand why Jamie says Damo reaction was organic. If Damo is alien his response is the same as far as I can see. If Damo is Alien he now knows he has a scan result being exposed tomorrow? Does that mean if Jamie dies tonight we have to kill Damo, or what if Jamie dies by alien hands that set Damo up for DK, have we just gifted the alien the game?

Clearly we disagree; I'm just being honest that Damo's reaction felt genuine to me. That's my opinion.

If someone has a save, I'm sure I'd appreciate it tonight.

Presumably the Mafia won't be foolish enough to kill me, but I assume the Alien will want to.

Remember that the consensus reaction to damo's reaction when we all believed you was that he was the most likely of the infected to be an alien.

[ghug]

If celaph does not flip alien then alien is probably

worcej or ghug (or a sneaky Vecna)

scum may be able to eliminate one or 2 of these so perhaps we humans are not in such bad shape

Why not Bob, Maniac, or Fox?

[damo666]

Please remember my volte face from my suicidal vote was in light of the info a kit holder can target themselves.

Tbh I wasn't expecting that answer because of the use of the word 'another' in the set up.