Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

For Damo to look at this and conclude "Foxcastle can't be scrim based on that voting" does not appear plausible to me.

If Foxcastle is town, he would 100% have been daykilled if BunnyGo and Brainbomb had not moved onto Lfischl.

Why would two scrim almost simultaneously jump from one town, to a different town, at EoD like that?

Purely on a VCA basis this actually looks bad for Foxcastle, but also for Damo because I honestly can't understand how he logically reached the opposite conclusion.

[BobMcBob]

yeah okay this particular damo analysis looks pretty bad
like why does scum temporarily being on a wagon then moving off make the subject look less scummy?
theres not no logic, but it is pretty lacking

[damo666]

For Damo to look at this and conclude "Foxcastle can't be scrim based on that voting" does not appear plausible to me.

If Foxcastle is town, he would 100% have been daykilled if BunnyGo and Brainbomb had not moved onto Lfischl.

Why would two scrim almost simultaneously jump from one town, to a different town, at EoD like that?

Purely on a VCA basis this actually looks bad for Foxcastle, but also for Damo because I honestly can't understand how he logically reached the opposite conclusion.

Well if Fox is scum his remaining partner would have to be worcej (since I townread Vecna) or yet another busser in ghug/rdr/Maniac.

On day 2 bra bunny and Tham voted in that order to put Fox 6-5 ahead of lifisch from 5-3 down. They do that to a teammate for 2 of them to come back off again? POssible but looks unlikely to me.

[Foxcastle]

For Damo to look at this and conclude "Foxcastle can't be scrim based on that voting" does not appear plausible to me.

If Foxcastle is town, he would 100% have been daykilled if BunnyGo and Brainbomb had not moved onto Lfischl.

Why would two scrim almost simultaneously jump from one town, to a different town, at EoD like that?

Purely on a VCA basis this actually looks bad for Foxcastle, but also for Damo because I honestly can't understand how he logically reached the opposite conclusion.

I have been assuming Damo is "too dumb for scum" for a bit now, but that might actually make a lot of sense for him being the alien.

[damo666]

Day 3 ghug Maniac and rdr are all on Fox until the brain meltdown

[damo666]

On Day 4 even both Vecna and worcej were voting Fox.

If Fox is scum I'm the only 'suspect' who can't have bussed him.

So, every single one of his team bussed him.

Really?

[damo666]

In fact the 4 live players to not ahve voted Fox are:

me Jamie Macca and celaph

spot a theme?

[damo666]

AND if Fox were scrim he would have slipped by now!

(sorry Fox)

[BobMcBob]

i simultaneously hate and hate damos use of assuming his own innocence (nai, he always does it from memory, but still)

[Foxcastle]

i simultaneously hate and hate damos use of assuming his own innocence (nai, he always does it from memory, but still)

I, too, both hate it but also hate it.

Really, that's just the best example of his biggest sin: implicit assumptions, which tend to infect his downline reasoning and conclusions and make it harder for anyone else to follow his thinking.

[damo666]

I know Macca and I are town.

I assume Jamie is AR.

It is highly likely Bob is town.

Celaph could be alien though his death appeal implies infected town is more likely.

This leaves Fox ghug Maniac rdr Vecna and worcej.

I town read Vecna and as explained I am assuming Fox is not Mafia (he could be alien).

So, we have:

alienFox plus scum 2 from ghug Maniac rdr worcej

or
alien plus 2 scum from ghug Maniac rdr worcej

My best guess is....

alien worcej
scum ghug + Maniac (or rdr)

[damo666]

That explicit enough?

[ghug]

Let's look at the three confirmed scum and their voting on D2:

Brainbomb:
Voted for me,
then Damo,
then Maniac,
then back to Damo,
then an INVALID vote for Lfischl,
then Bonatogether,
then Damo again,
then another INVALID vote for Lfishl,
then Maniac,
then Damo,
then Macca,
then Foxcastle,
then finally onto Lfischl where he ended up.

Brainbomb was on Foxcastle for an hour as EoD approached. His move off Foxcastle occurred with 8 minutes to go, when Foxcastle was only one vote behind Lfishl.


BunnyGo:
Voted for Bonatogether,
Unvoted for quite a long period,
Voted for Foxcastle,
Then finally moved off Fox onto Lfischl where he ended up.

BunnyGo's vote switch from Fox to Lfischl put Lfischl in the lead instead of Fox. BunnyGo's move off Foxcastle was the exact point at which Foxcastle ceased to be the leading wagon at EoD2.


Thamrick:
Voted for Bonatogether,
Unvoted for quite a long period,
Voted for Foxcastle and then stayed there.

Thamrick's votes follow BunnyGo's votes all day until EoD. Thamrick was online with 30 minutes or thereabouts to go until EoD.

Lol at thamrick sheeping his teammate.

My takeaway here is that it's Vecna and Fox.

[ghug]

I know Macca and I are town.

I assume Jamie is AR.

It is highly likely Bob is town.

Celaph could be alien though his death appeal implies infected town is more likely.

This leaves Fox ghug Maniac rdr Vecna and worcej.

I town read Vecna and as explained I am assuming Fox is not Mafia (he could be alien).

So, we have:

alienFox plus scum 2 from ghug Maniac rdr worcej

or
alien plus 2 scum from ghug Maniac rdr worcej

My best guess is....

alien worcej
scum ghug + Maniac (or rdr)

Maybe instead of concluding Fox is town, you should be willing to question your reads on me and Vecna.

[ghug]

One thing to note is that I highly doubt brain voted for all of those people without dropping a single vote on a teammate.

[Foxcastle]

One thing to note is that I highly doubt brain voted for all of those people without dropping a single vote on a teammate.

That's reasonable, but it's not the whole story. Brain has occasionally talked in the past about how he's proud of games where he doesn't ever bus.

[ghug]

One thing to note is that I highly doubt brain voted for all of those people without dropping a single vote on a teammate.

That's reasonable, but it's not the whole story. Brain has occasionally talked in the past about how he's proud of games where he doesn't ever bus.

Is the threshold there "never voting for a teammate" or "never helping kill a teammate"? When I was scum with him a few games ago, he took every opportunity to vote for me until it looked like I might die (at which point he panicked, claimed cop, and got three of us killed).

[Foxcastle]

One thing to note is that I highly doubt brain voted for all of those people without dropping a single vote on a teammate.

That's reasonable, but it's not the whole story. Brain has occasionally talked in the past about how he's proud of games where he doesn't ever bus.

Is the threshold there "never voting for a teammate" or "never helping kill a teammate"? When I was scum with him a few games ago, he took every opportunity to vote for me until it looked like I might die (at which point he panicked, claimed cop, and got three of us killed).

Dunno, but I recall him talking about winning while "never bussing." Obviously Brain occasionally seems to revel in frequent and widespread bussing. I think if he bussed anyone here, it was Damo, but I think we should keep in mind that "no bussing" is not out of the question.

[Jamiet99uk]

That's reasonable, but it's not the whole story. Brain has occasionally talked in the past about how he's proud of games where he doesn't ever bus.

Is the threshold there "never voting for a teammate" or "never helping kill a teammate"? When I was scum with him a few games ago, he took every opportunity to vote for me until it looked like I might die (at which point he panicked, claimed cop, and got three of us killed).

Dunno, but I recall him talking about winning while "never bussing." Obviously Brain occasionally seems to revel in frequent and widespread bussing. I think if he bussed anyone here, it was Damo, but I think we should keep in mind that "no bussing" is not out of the question.

Brainbomb voted for Thamrick during D1, so this theory is already invalid.

[Jamiet99uk]

Brainbomb also voted for BunnyGo in the first half of D3.

So this idea that Brainbomb may have been pursuing a "never vote a team-mate" strategy is simply incorrect.