Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[Jamiet99uk]

Suggested line:
The next 3 kills are all directed towards hitting the alien and one of the next two being me. Mafia hold their kill both of the next two nights.

Worst case scenario we're sitting at 4 infected 12 alive right now. Killing two, one of which is infected and giving alien 2 nights to infect puts us at 5 infected 10 alive giving us one last shot to take them out.

Mafia can go ahead and kill, but they lose too if alien wins and we've already lost our deputy so they aren't giving TI more time to find them. Their only loss is if we kill maf while searching for alien. For them to kill they would have to risk that they are either killing an infected person or that an infected person is already dead.

This gives town 2 shots at alien which is just as many as in my ideal line where town just trusts that I'm not alien and doesn't kill me. It also gives Jamie one more scan than in that line. It only fails if mafia throw or if Jamie is alien and we just got fucked by having our AR vaporized D1.

Alien can kill to make it look like mafia killed, but if there is enough town buy-in to this plan then we can assume that it was the alien's kill. If everyone publicly assumes this then the mafia is throwing even more so by not holding kills. And from the alien perspective, killing is strictly worse than infecting at reaching their wincon.

Thoughts?

I'm fine with this.
Seems a reasonable plan to me.

[worcej]

I would say that as alien I have to kill Jamie last night as getting revealed as alien basically guarantees that I'll be killed at some point. But if alien can win while dead then that argument fails.

Should we be asking if anyone healed Jamie last night?

So, your analysis is highly flawed. The Alien knows infecting is more important than killing Jamie because that gets him/her/it closer to their wincon and there are numerous people Jamie can scan that are not themselves.

Assuming all people infected and the alien are alive still, we're currently at 4 'infected' (counting the alien themselves, reminder) and 8 'humans'. Coincidentally, that's the same count as 'scum' and town.

If we do not treat or DK an infected player right now, we're looking at possibly being at 5-5 on D4, which could result in mylo/lylo for us. This is complicated by a scum NK, because if they hit infected targets then yay for us, but if they don't then we're in a bad spot.

So, if at 5-5 on D4 (plausible outcome), we must eliminate the Alien with the DK or we most likely lose. This gets complicated, so here is a long list:

1. If the Alien goes into N4 and we hit an infected person on D4's DK, then it's 4-5
   1. Scenario 1 - Scum NK an infected target, Alien infects another. Result becomes 4-4 again and we don't advance.
   2. Scenario 2 - Scum NK a non-infected target, Alien infects another. Result becomes 5-3, Alien wins.
   3. Scenario 3 - Scum NK the alien (no kill), Alien infects another. Result becomes 5-4, Alien wins.
2. If the Alien goes into N4 and we hit a non-infected person on D4's DK, then it's 5-4. Alien wins.

We have to deal with celaph's infection or risk losing. We have items (hopefully) available to do this. I do not have one, or else I would've used it.

##vote celaph

[ghug]

Yes, I confess to being a lovely town member. I was asking because the alien is the only one that knows I'm town (or at least not alien, I guess I could be maf from their perspective) and is incentivized to keep me alive. I want to know his reasons for seeing me as such and at least force the alien to give a decent reason for not killing me.

You think Maniac is the Alien then?

It's possible, he's response wasn't particularly good. But I don't have a strong read on it.

I think my pick if it's not you right now is damo.

[ghug]

I would say that as alien I have to kill Jamie last night as getting revealed as alien basically guarantees that I'll be killed at some point. But if alien can win while dead then that argument fails.

Should we be asking if anyone healed Jamie last night?

So, your analysis is highly flawed. The Alien knows infecting is more important than killing Jamie because that gets him/her/it closer to their wincon and there are numerous people Jamie can scan that are not themselves.

Assuming all people infected and the alien are alive still, we're currently at 4 'infected' (counting the alien themselves, reminder) and 8 'humans'. Coincidentally, that's the same count as 'scum' and town.

If we do not treat or DK an infected player right now, we're looking at possibly being at 5-5 on D4, which could result in mylo/lylo for us. This is complicated by a scum NK, because if they hit infected targets then yay for us, but if they don't then we're in a bad spot.

So, if at 5-5 on D4 (plausible outcome), we must eliminate the Alien with the DK or we most likely lose. This gets complicated, so here is a long list:

1. If the Alien goes into N4 and we hit an infected person on D4's DK, then it's 4-5
   1. Scenario 1 - Scum NK an infected target, Alien infects another. Result becomes 4-4 again and we don't advance.
   2. Scenario 2 - Scum NK a non-infected target, Alien infects another. Result becomes 5-3, Alien wins.
   3. Scenario 3 - Scum NK the alien (no kill), Alien infects another. Result becomes 5-4, Alien wins.
2. If the Alien goes into N4 and we hit a non-infected person on D4's DK, then it's 5-4. Alien wins.

We have to deal with celaph's infection or risk losing. We have items (hopefully) available to do this. I do not have one, or else I would've used it.

##vote celaph

Right, once it's at even numbers, we either need to unalienize someone or every death has to be someone infected until we hit the alien.

[worcej]

Please anyone poke holes in my analysis if you see anything.

It is based on the assumption we fail to deal with an infected person today and mafia do NK an non-infected person during N4.

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 4.02
thamrick (5) damo666, Jamiet99uk, Foxcastle, Macca573, Maniac
Celaph (2) ghug, worecj
Foxcastle (1) BobMcBob

Unvote: Maniac

Damo is endvoting (for tham)

Thamrick has the most glares

Not Voted: celaph, rdr, tham

Not posted: tham

Approx 1 d, 1.5 hours left today

[Jamiet99uk]

We have to deal with celaph's infection or risk losing. We have items (hopefully) available to do this. I do not have one, or else I would've used it.

##vote celaph

I agree with the impetus for action, but not the vote. There are likely to be multiple such items available, and Celaph is the first infected person to be identified. Even if scum have stolen an anti-infection item, it is in their interests to use it to cure Celaph's DNA.

[Maniac]

Vote Count 4.02
thamrick (5) damo666, Jamiet99uk, Foxcastle, Macca573, Maniac
Celaph (2) ghug, worecj
Foxcastle (1) BobMcBob

Unvote: Maniac

Damo is endvoting (for tham)

Thamrick has the most glares

##Call GM

Am I under the control of the alien or have I been given two votes because you guys know I'm the only townie talking sense?

Not Voted: celaph, rdr, tham

Not posted: tham

Approx 1 d, 1.5 hours left today

[Maniac]

Killing celpah is dumb IMHO. If it wasn't for his DNA scan he'd probably be heavily town read.

We're better off trying to kill scum today we might hit alien or infected townie.

Scum might hit the alien tonight.

Tomorrow we can reassess and kill celaph if needs be

[damo666]

So to be clear:

Mafia:
Maniac and Damo and one of Ghug or Vecna

Alien:
Thamrick. If not Thamrick then possibly Celaph or Rdrivera.

Call me dumb, But it's impossible for Thamrick is alien. We have an insane deputy. Thamrick scanned Not Area 51, so his TRUE identity is Area 51. The alien scans as 'Not area 51' as a true identity even when he is framed. Therefore Thamrick has to be scum (not MiB) or a framed townie or possibly a framed MiB. Am I misreading something here?

You have got this the wrong way around:

I have been told that my scan result is incorrect. THAMRICK ACTUALLY SCANNED AS AREA-51.

Thamrick CANNOT be Mafia. But he CAN be Alien.

Unless MiB

[Maniac]

Just thinking out loud, at some point we might have to make the painful decision to kill Jamie. He is our most valuable player in fighting the alien, but also a great alien target as they know we won't want to kill him.

[dargorygel]

Vote Count 4.02b
thamrick (5) damo666, Jamiet99uk, Foxcastle, Macca573, Vecna
Celaph (2) ghug, worecj
Foxcastle (1) BobMcBob

Unvote: Maniac

Damo is endvoting (for tham)

Thamrick has the most glares

Not Voted: celaph, rdr, tham

Not posted: tham

Approx 1 d, 1.5 hours left today

[Jamiet99uk]

Thamrick CANNOT be Mafia. But he CAN be Alien.

Unless MiB

Wow you're the first person to point this out.

So insightful!

Thank you so much Damo.

[damo666]

I have camped.

I WILL CURE CELAPH TONIGHT

[Jamiet99uk]

Just thinking out loud, at some point we might have to make the painful decision to kill Jamie. He is our most valuable player in fighting the alien, but also a great alien target as they know we won't want to kill him.

I can scan myself tonight to determine if I am infected.

[Jamiet99uk]

I have camped.

I WILL CURE CELAPH TONIGHT

Interesting.

[Jamiet99uk]

So the RV Camper has used their ability. This increases the Alien risk even more. Very foolish of them.

[Maniac]

Just thinking out loud, at some point we might have to make the painful decision to kill Jamie. He is our most valuable player in fighting the alien, but also a great alien target as they know we won't want to kill him.

I can scan myself tonight to determine if I am infected.

and get infected later if you're clean? Don't what you're doing

[Jamiet99uk]

Just thinking out loud, at some point we might have to make the painful decision to kill Jamie. He is our most valuable player in fighting the alien, but also a great alien target as they know we won't want to kill him.

I can scan myself tonight to determine if I am infected.

and get infected later if you're clean? Don't what you're doing

Don't what that sentence

[Jamiet99uk]

Maniac just wants to kill me because I am scumreading him.