Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[rdrivera2005]

So do you all think I was actually jailed or just claim jailed? I understand the alien thinking. But unless I'm secretary, why would scum jail me and prevent my night action? (Hint: I can't be secretary based on my scan) If I wasn't jailed, who did BB jail that night and have you ever known BB to not use an action he's got? (Hint: no)

yeah okay this post smells more than a little fishy
i dont understand where any of this logic is coming from
dont particularly like it

Hint: His logic is pretty solid and exactly what I have been saying. Anyone voting Tham because they think he is scum and not the Alien is doing a shitty job at scum hunting.

[rdrivera2005]

So to be clear:

Mafia:
Maniac and Damo and one of Ghug or Vecna

Alien:
Thamrick. If not Thamrick then possibly Celaph or Rdrivera.

Call me dumb, But it's impossible for Thamrick is alien. We have an insane deputy. Thamrick scanned Not Area 51, so his TRUE identity is Area 51. The alien scans as 'Not area 51' as a true identity even when he is framed. Therefore Thamrick has to be scum (not MiB) or a framed townie or possibly a framed MiB. Am I misreading something here?

You have got this the wrong way around:

I have been told that my scan result is incorrect. THAMRICK ACTUALLY SCANNED AS AREA-51.

Thamrick CANNOT be Mafia. But he CAN be Alien.

False. He can be MIB. Why people can't get mechanics right after 4 days.

[celaph]

I disagree. Your basing things of a worst case scenario whereas a player infected N1 will only have a 50/50 chance of still being alive when we reach the halfway point. Add to that that Jamie can keep getting scans off and we may be able to detect infected people later with VCA if alien takes control and alien isn’t the primary threat right now. We might also hit them by accident whilst scum hunting. Killing a likely town because he is infected right now isn’t good play imho.

I’m happy with Fox or Tham kills.

Why do you say I'm likely town?

Do you have something to confess?

Yes, I confess to being a lovely town member. I was asking because the alien is the only one that knows I'm town (or at least not alien, I guess I could be maf from their perspective) and is incentivized to keep me alive. I want to know his reasons for seeing me as such and at least force the alien to give a decent reason for not killing me.

[rdrivera2005]

Yeah, there are twelve of us left. There's a very plausible worst case scenario here where we come into tomorrow with 5 infected and 5 clean, and then we have to kill the alien, or we have to kill infected and then scum have to kill infected, or we lose. If someone's been camping, we could lose even sooner, but I'm going to assume that hasn't happened, since it was highlighted pretty early that camping shouldn't happen.

There are up to three reverse alien DNA kits, two if brain was telling the truth, but there's no indication that we learn if those are successful (##CALLGM Does the user of a reverse DNA kit learn anything about whether the item did anything?) so while we could heal celaph, that wouldn't do anything to delay an alien win if he is in fact the alien, and we have no way of knowing if he is.

Now, it's likely we're not in the worst case scenario, but it isn't particularly likely, since nobody that unexpected has died, and we're also going to have to kill celaph at some point regardless, either because he's a likely alien candidate and we need to catch the alien or because the alien appears to be able to win even if they're dead (##CALLGM is this accurate?), so we can't really let him get to a small endgame if that's where we're headed.

If there were no alien in the game, we'd have two miskills before MILO with the mafia, so the alien is the primary threat right now.

##VOTE celaph

I disagree. Your basing things of a worst case scenario whereas a player infected N1 will only have a 50/50 chance of still being alive when we reach the halfway point. Add to that that Jamie can keep getting scans off and we may be able to detect infected people later with VCA if alien takes control and alien isn’t the primary threat right now. We might also hit them by accident whilst scum hunting. Killing a likely town because he is infected right now isn’t good play imho.

I’m happy with Fox or Tham kills.

Your 50/50 analysis is rather off. There are several people, like myself, who typically do not get NK'ed early based off meta.

A smart alien player familiar with the players here could make choices on infections that are more likely to be around then not.

As you have been dedicating time to consider this, how likely do you think is Tham choosing Celaph for N1 infection?

[celaph]

GM ANSWERS
(If I missed one, let me know…)

a) The player removing DNA from a target IS notified that DNA was successfully removed.
b) The alien is counted in the total number of DNA-infected players.
c) We have said all we plan to say about “all night action notifications’ timeliness.” (unofficial side note: I urge players not to use GM error as a game factor. We erred, and I am sorry for our errorS. But please don't make it worse. Thanks)

My earlier question
##Call GM: does infection status reveal on flip?

[celaph]

Point B makes me much more confident that celaph needs to be flipped or a DNA item used on him ASAP.

There should be 3 DNA items, right? The question is how to make sure one of them actually gets used without duplicative waste of other kits.

The hard thing is that if the alien has one, it's pretty easy for them to pretend to use it, and then we're at the must-kill scenario and not realizing it.

To add to this, assuming that none of the dead are infected and we kill neither alien nor infected today then we can't kill me tomorrow else we alien wins.

I doubt that Tham would be infected and I'm not sure if alien Tham infects me so this line doesn't seem that unlikely. That said, if infection status doesn't reveal on flip then we may have some dead infected people and just don't know about it.

[celaph]

I disagree. Your basing things of a worst case scenario whereas a player infected N1 will only have a 50/50 chance of still being alive when we reach the halfway point. Add to that that Jamie can keep getting scans off and we may be able to detect infected people later with VCA if alien takes control and alien isn’t the primary threat right now. We might also hit them by accident whilst scum hunting. Killing a likely town because he is infected right now isn’t good play imho.

I’m happy with Fox or Tham kills.

Your 50/50 analysis is rather off. There are several people, like myself, who typically do not get NK'ed early based off meta.

A smart alien player familiar with the players here could make choices on infections that are more likely to be around then not.

As you have been dedicating time to consider this, how likely do you think is Tham choosing Celaph for N1 infection?

The one part of this that makes me hesitant is that Tham seems to be paying more attention than his activity suggests and I was getting townread by a few D1 so I'm not a bad pick even for him.

[dargorygel]

##call GM:

If the alien himself is targetted with the reverse alien DNA, what result will the user of that item receive?

From ND:
Alien and infected targeted by reverse DNA gives the same result. Basically the target has alien dna. No difference

[celaph]

##call GM - this should be obvious, but just checking "The Alien wins when a majority of players are infected." So I read 'infected' as being as soon as they are infected not waiting until they scan Alien DNA. And I read it as being the game stops as soon as the majority is reached, so if it's 5 infected and 4 not infected the game stops, we can't DK/NK infected players to overturn that win condition and finally can you confirm the alien can be dead and still win?

a) Infected means infected, not detectable.
b) A dead alien can still win, if the majority of players are infected.

Cure me pls.

[celaph]

##call GM:

If the alien himself is targetted with the reverse alien DNA, what result will the user of that item receive?

From ND:
Alien and infected targeted by reverse DNA gives the same result. Basically the target has alien dna. No difference

Oh, fuck.

[ghug]

##call GM:

If the alien himself is targetted with the reverse alien DNA, what result will the user of that item receive?

From ND:
Alien and infected targeted by reverse DNA gives the same result. Basically the target has alien dna. No difference

Oh, fuck.

I'm sad cause you're behaving in a way that makes me think you're not the alien, but I still think we need to kill you.

[celaph]

I would say that as alien I have to kill Jamie last night as getting revealed as alien basically guarantees that I'll be killed at some point. But if alien can win while dead then that argument fails.

Should we be asking if anyone healed Jamie last night?

[dargorygel]

GM ANSWERS
(If I missed one, let me know…)

a) The player removing DNA from a target IS notified that DNA was successfully removed.
b) The alien is counted in the total number of DNA-infected players.
c) We have said all we plan to say about “all night action notifications’ timeliness.” (unofficial side note: I urge players not to use GM error as a game factor. We erred, and I am sorry for our errorS. But please don't make it worse. Thanks)

My earlier question
##Call GM: does infection status reveal on flip?

No

[worcej]

I disagree. Your basing things of a worst case scenario whereas a player infected N1 will only have a 50/50 chance of still being alive when we reach the halfway point. Add to that that Jamie can keep getting scans off and we may be able to detect infected people later with VCA if alien takes control and alien isn’t the primary threat right now. We might also hit them by accident whilst scum hunting. Killing a likely town because he is infected right now isn’t good play imho.

I’m happy with Fox or Tham kills.

Your 50/50 analysis is rather off. There are several people, like myself, who typically do not get NK'ed early based off meta.

A smart alien player familiar with the players here could make choices on infections that are more likely to be around then not.

As you have been dedicating time to consider this, how likely do you think is Tham choosing Celaph for N1 infection?

I think it's possible, but unlikely because I would assume tham has not meta experience/knowledge on who celaph is.

If Tham was Alien, I'd assume he'd infect someone who has played for awhile like yourself, Jamie, Vecna, ghug, Foxcastle, etc.

[ghug]

I would say that as alien I have to kill Jamie last night as getting revealed as alien basically guarantees that I'll be killed at some point. But if alien can win while dead then that argument fails.

Should we be asking if anyone healed Jamie last night?

We should be asking Jamie if he was saved, but I don't think we should be asking who tried to save him.

I do agree that you'd likely want to kill Jamie, seeing as you did know he'd scanned you before he announced the result, and my first instinct was to read you as not alien for it, but given that the alien can win posthumously and Jamie was a pretty obvious protection target, I think it's also possible you'd just infect again and bank on either us killing thamrick today or your pool of infecteds surviving long enough to get you a win after dying.

[celaph]

Suggested line:
The next 3 kills are all directed towards hitting the alien and one of the next two being me. Mafia hold their kill both of the next two nights.

Worst case scenario we're sitting at 4 infected 12 alive right now. Killing two, one of which is infected and giving alien 2 nights to infect puts us at 5 infected 10 alive giving us one last shot to take them out.

Mafia can go ahead and kill, but they lose too if alien wins and we've already lost our deputy so they aren't giving TI more time to find them. Their only loss is if we kill maf while searching for alien. For them to kill they would have to risk that they are either killing an infected person or that an infected person is already dead.

This gives town 2 shots at alien which is just as many as in my ideal line where town just trusts that I'm not alien and doesn't kill me. It also gives Jamie one more scan than in that line. It only fails if mafia throw or if Jamie is alien and we just got fucked by having our AR vaporized D1.

Alien can kill to make it look like mafia killed, but if there is enough town buy-in to this plan then we can assume that it was the alien's kill. If everyone publicly assumes this then the mafia is throwing even more so by not holding kills. And from the alien perspective, killing is strictly worse than infecting at reaching their wincon.

Thoughts?

[Jamiet99uk]

Why do you say I'm likely town?

Do you have something to confess?

Yes, I confess to being a lovely town member. I was asking because the alien is the only one that knows I'm town (or at least not alien, I guess I could be maf from their perspective) and is incentivized to keep me alive. I want to know his reasons for seeing me as such and at least force the alien to give a decent reason for not killing me.

You think Maniac is the Alien then?

[ghug]

Suggested line:
The next 3 kills are all directed towards hitting the alien and one of the next two being me. Mafia hold their kill both of the next two nights.

Worst case scenario we're sitting at 4 infected 12 alive right now. Killing two, one of which is infected and giving alien 2 nights to infect puts us at 5 infected 10 alive giving us one last shot to take them out.

Mafia can go ahead and kill, but they lose too if alien wins and we've already lost our deputy so they aren't giving TI more time to find them. Their only loss is if we kill maf while searching for alien. For them to kill they would have to risk that they are either killing an infected person or that an infected person is already dead.

This gives town 2 shots at alien which is just as many as in my ideal line where town just trusts that I'm not alien and doesn't kill me. It also gives Jamie one more scan than in that line. It only fails if mafia throw or if Jamie is alien and we just got fucked by having our AR vaporized D1.

Alien can kill to make it look like mafia killed, but if there is enough town buy-in to this plan then we can assume that it was the alien's kill. If everyone publicly assumes this then the mafia is throwing even more so by not holding kills. And from the alien perspective, killing is strictly worse than infecting at reaching their wincon.

Thoughts?

I worry that mafia is in a bad enough position that they'll raise the threat level of the alien to keep us from focusing on them for longer, so I don't want to bank on it, but this does sound good for everyone.

[celaph]

Do you have something to confess?

Yes, I confess to being a lovely town member. I was asking because the alien is the only one that knows I'm town (or at least not alien, I guess I could be maf from their perspective) and is incentivized to keep me alive. I want to know his reasons for seeing me as such and at least force the alien to give a decent reason for not killing me.

You think Maniac is the Alien then?

It's possible, he's response wasn't particularly good. But I don't have a strong read on it.

[Jamiet99uk]

I would say that as alien I have to kill Jamie last night as getting revealed as alien basically guarantees that I'll be killed at some point. But if alien can win while dead then that argument fails.

Should we be asking if anyone healed Jamie last night?

We should be asking Jamie if he was saved, but I don't think we should be asking who tried to save him.

I do agree that you'd likely want to kill Jamie, seeing as you did know he'd scanned you before he announced the result, and my first instinct was to read you as not alien for it, but given that the alien can win posthumously and Jamie was a pretty obvious protection target, I think it's also possible you'd just infect again and bank on either us killing thamrick today or your pool of infecteds surviving long enough to get you a win after dying.

As far as I know, I was not saved last night.

Tonight I will put on my item.