Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[BunnyGo]

Hey BunnyGo, isn't this actually a version of the Monty Hall problem? (Where you assume that Jamie or Jasnah is definitely scum, anyway...)

No, because we weren't guaranteed to see a town. Monty Hall works because Monty doesn't have freedom about which door he shows.

What about when you assume that scum know the outcome and are guiding the DK?

Hmm...it won't be as strong then. You have to apply an assumption like:

1) Scum *will* make sure a non-scum dies if they can
2) They can make sure a non-scum dies
3) Ignore alien as the rest of the scum won't help them
4) There must be a scum that was in danger of dying yesterday

In any case, something then applies. But it's not immediately clear to me what it is. Also isn't clear that any of those assumptions applies.

In any case, not particularly useful outside a gedankenexperiment

[brainbomb]

I feel that the self important scum memtality would be the secretary who the maf team loses the most utility with upon death. therefore the most self important lurkers are macca, thamrick, celaph, HR, and rdrivera

Thamrick and Celaph could be in jail or attending a seance.

posting at night is not required. they could be at a Tool concert for all we know

[brainbomb]

if you are a top wagon by a large margin with an hour or so left. fully claim so the containment field can be used to protect you from the dk and nk that phase

[BunnyGo]

self importance is not a scum trait among the big talkers. self importance manifests itself as lurking traditionally. All other forms of big talking scum are people who just cant shut up because they love the freedom that being town provides. The way the big talky scum get caught is in setups that screw them. or in player pools full of really good players who repeatedly escape death.

What? Can you say that more clearly?

[jasnah]

No, because we weren't guaranteed to see a town. Monty Hall works because Monty doesn't have freedom about which door he shows.

What about when you assume that scum know the outcome and are guiding the DK?

Hmm...it won't be as strong then. You have to apply an assumption like:

1) Scum *will* make sure a non-scum dies if they can
2) They can make sure a non-scum dies
3) Ignore alien as the rest of the scum won't help them
4) There must be a scum that was in danger of dying yesterday

In any case, something then applies. But it's not immediately clear to me what it is. Also isn't clear that any of those assumptions applies.

In any case, not particularly useful outside a gedankenexperiment

It falls apart at the assumption that scum will 'open' one of the other two. Assume town behaves as one agent. In Monty Hall have to assume that the host will always open a door that is not picked by the contestant (+ will open a goat + will offer to switch, those are the three assumptions). Mafia has no reason to do that, if town begins by picking a goat, mafia will just let that door be opened, that's the key step missing

[brainbomb]

assuming a PR is under hefty durress just claim anyway dont die needlessly.


and before one of you lackwit bungholes tries to claim that PRs should never claim and blah blah bullshit, I watched a EOD go down once where vash, uclabb, and chaqa all PR claimed and the elim swung onto me and I was mafia. scum lost despite outing three PR at once

[jasnah]

assuming a PR is under hefty durress just claim anyway dont die needlessly.


and before one of you lackwit bungholes tries to claim that PRs should never claim and blah blah bullshit, I watched a EOD go down once where vash, uclabb, and chaqa all PR claimed and the elim swung onto me and I was mafia. scum lost despite outing three PR at once

There's a reason mass claim strategies and role lists allowing mass claim strategies are so hated. It's because they work.

[Jamiet99uk]

assuming a PR is under hefty durress just claim anyway dont die needlessly.


and before one of you lackwit bungholes tries to claim that PRs should never claim and blah blah bullshit, I watched a EOD go down once where vash, uclabb, and chaqa all PR claimed and the elim swung onto me and I was mafia. scum lost despite outing three PR at once

Why do you mention Uclabb constantly despite the fact he's been dead for 17 years?

[brainbomb]

assuming a PR is under hefty durress just claim anyway dont die needlessly.


and before one of you lackwit bungholes tries to claim that PRs should never claim and blah blah bullshit, I watched a EOD go down once where vash, uclabb, and chaqa all PR claimed and the elim swung onto me and I was mafia. scum lost despite outing three PR at once

Why do you mention Uclabb constantly despite the fact he's been dead for 17 years?

Krellin reborn

[Jamiet99uk]

here's my reads sofar

Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb
Uclabb

[brainbomb]

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g=30&user=uclabb

[Vecna]

brainbomb is very likely scum btw

He's doing the self-agrandizing rants again

[brainbomb]

I just made battered dipped cod in the air fryer. with malt vinegar and crinkle cut fries.

[brainbomb]

brainbomb is very likely scum btw

He's doing the self-agrandizing rants again

If I were scum my team would be absolutely cruising to the finish line

[Hellenic Riot]

I'm getting strongly inclined to endhammer ghug tomorrow

Why?

Because every time you justify the Chaqa vote it feels worse and worse, and I strongly disagree with just about everything else you're saying too.

[brainbomb]

the vecna and HR pop ins are starting to feel alot like Scar from the Lion King

[brainbomb]

and I do love socialism and what he did for the jobless Hyenas but... I dunno

[damo666]

Im not familiar with that reference foxxy

You don't know the Monty Hall problem?

It's the one with the goats and the doors.

And it doesn't apply since we are ignorant of how many goats there are.

[brainbomb]

I forget damo is british and cultured and shit

[Foxcastle]

Im not familiar with that reference foxxy

You don't know the Monty Hall problem?

It's the one with the goats and the doors.

And it doesn't apply since we are ignorant of how many goats there are.

THERE ARE FOUR GOATS.