Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[brainbomb]

aaaaand he gone

[Jamiet99uk]

Im not familiar with that reference foxxy

You don't know the Monty Hall problem?

It's the one with the goats and the doors.

[worcej]

Worcej, can you walk me through your daily routine?

Wake up at 6.
Work from 7 to 5ish - I spend a lot of my time on my work computer, thus this is my most active times in mafia.
Home at 5 - with a 18 month old and a new puppy this week, I don’t get much time to check mafia.
Asleep by 10:00 usually.

[brainbomb]

Never heard of eet.

I have a job interview at 330 which wont take long. Wife is sick, I will probably not be on much this evening. If anyone gets infected I got you covered fam.

[jasnah]

@worcej Bona's reasons for town reading me or anyone else are pretty much just like his reasons for scum reading me or anyone else: spurious, fallacious and dense.

@Ghug

And just a moment ago you liked my townpool...

I thought the above was either a general expression of disappointment, like the equivalent of taking a sigh, or a pointed dig at my inconsistency of liking and then not liking the previous reads.

I'm not sure why I read it as the latter. I became really mad for not that much reason. I apologize for my language which was excessive and I'll tone it down.

@all Please do hold me to it. Periodic personal insults are shitty and I don't want to create a meta where unhinged flaming becomes a norm.

@Ghug I actually like you all things considered so it was especially out of order me to write like that, not because people would deserve it more if I don't like them, but because it shows I have a lot of work to do re rage management if I can just go off like that for no particular reason.

[brainbomb]

Suddenly, a nondescript man started running across the street. Just as he got close a convoy of Camaros ran him over. After the Camaros passed it was revealed that Chaqa was dead.

Was chaqa murdered by a bunch of nascar fans?

[jasnah]

And no, it's not Monty Hall, Monty Hall relies on crucial assumption of the omniscient and infallible host knowing all information and intentionally picking door with goat, you change that assumption and the counterintuitive result goes away, obviously town is about as far from omniscient and infallible as you can get. So there is no guarantee that Chaqa would have been a goat = town.

[Jamiet99uk]

Never heard of eet.

It goes something like this:

Monty Hall is a game show host. He has a car containing two goats. You want to win the car but not the goats. You pick one of the car doors. He opens one of the other doors (not the one you picked). A goat comes out through the door. Now he gives you the option of changing to one of the car's remaining doors, or sticking with the one you started with. You want the other goat to leave the car. Should you switch?

[Foxcastle]

why are you never around to talk to me?

We are just two ships, passing in the night.

Or two ducks, passing in the night.

Or two Boeing 757s, passing in the night. Or in the daytime, since Boeing 757s don't have any real conception of day or night.

[Bonatogether]

@worcej Bona's reasons for town reading me or anyone else are pretty much just like his reasons for scum reading me or anyone else: spurious, fallacious and dense.

o_O

[Jamiet99uk]

why are you never around to talk to me?

We are just two ships, passing in the night.

Or two ducks, passing in the night.

Or two Boeing 757s, passing in the night. Or in the daytime, since Boeing 757s don't have any real conception of day or night.

Monty Hall presents you with three doors. Behind one of the doors is a wonderful ship. Behind each of the other two doors is a horrible duck. Which Boeing 757 should you board?

[jasnah]

And no, it's not Monty Hall, Monty Hall relies on crucial assumption of the omniscient and infallible host knowing all information and intentionally picking door with goat, you change that assumption and the counterintuitive result goes away, obviously town is about as far from omniscient and infallible as you can get. So there is no guarantee that Chaqa would have been a goat = town.

Apparently I am not so good at explaining things. The above that I wrote is correct. But if there are doubts, or people would like a more eloquent explanation than I can provide:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Read section "the paradox", then go down to section 5 "Variants" part 1 "other host behaviours". The scenario in question with D1 DK most closely is modelled by "Monty Fall" or "Ignorant Monty". Switching your reads won't make any difference.

[BunnyGo]

OK. I hope I counted the scum correctly this time.

If there just 1 Item Thief, which can used 3 times, instead of 3 item thiefs. Then we would have started D1 with 6 evils: 5 scum and 1 alien. And also we had 14 meaningful town, since this is the 15 we started with minus kgray, and bozo was not in the game.

I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me intuitively that if you pick randomly 3 people, of the 14, you have 27% chance you get 3 town. So it's unlikely, but it's not impossible, even though human brain likes to interpret any % <50% as impossible, because we're all a bunch of monkeys. Consider this a minimum bound because scum are likely to run at least some interference to prevent a strong wagon on one of theirs where feasible. So let's say around 30% chance of 3 town wagon D1, for a conservative estimate. But Chaqa died and obviously we know he's town. So let's update our priors. Given that already 1 town is removed. The chance of two more randomly drawn, both being town, is 41%. Hardly impossible.

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

Damo can tell you the actual percentage you’re talking about.

Hey BunnyGo, isn't this actually a version of the Monty Hall problem? (Where you assume that Jamie or Jasnah is definitely scum, anyway...)

No, because we weren't guaranteed to see a town. Monty Hall works because Monty doesn't have freedom about which door he shows.

[Foxcastle]

Damo can tell you the actual percentage you’re talking about.

Hey BunnyGo, isn't this actually a version of the Monty Hall problem? (Where you assume that Jamie or Jasnah is definitely scum, anyway...)

No, because we weren't guaranteed to see a town. Monty Hall works because Monty doesn't have freedom about which door he shows.

What about when you assume that scum know the outcome and are guiding the DK?

[brainbomb]

self importance is not a scum trait among the big talkers. self importance manifests itself as lurking traditionally. All other forms of big talking scum are people who just cant shut up because they love the freedom that being town provides. The way the big talky scum get caught is in setups that screw them. or in player pools full of really good players who repeatedly escape death.

[brainbomb]

As we have seen recently, it is good to be town. Scum is the much more barbary coasts way of trekk.

[brainbomb]

I feel that the self important scum memtality would be the secretary who the maf team loses the most utility with upon death. therefore the most self important lurkers are macca, thamrick, celaph, HR, and rdrivera

[brainbomb]

If I had the M16 I would be shooting in that group.

[Jamiet99uk]

I feel that the self important scum memtality would be the secretary who the maf team loses the most utility with upon death. therefore the most self important lurkers are macca, thamrick, celaph, HR, and rdrivera

Thamrick and Celaph could be in jail or attending a seance.

[brainbomb]

a few reminders: If you got jailed you are not cleared but its likely youre town or alien.

If you had your item stolen the same is true.

that is all