Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[BunnyGo]

In non-game related question: I just got a very very spammy PM asking me for money. Whom do I report it to?

[worcej]

BRB, getting my COVID vaccine because apparently making pulp for a papermill means I'm essential.

congratulations essential worker man!

The vaccine completely destroyed me. I had a 102 F fever and have aches/chills too.

I had COVID a few months ago, so my body is like ‘HEY! That shit is back, BURN IT WITH FIRE!!!’

[worcej]

In non-game related question: I just got a very very spammy PM asking me for money. Whom do I report it to?

Can’t you just flag the PM?

[Bonatogether]

@Bunny go

OK, I understand now. I'm glad you find assertion that this is a scum slip as unconvincing as it ought to be immediately dismissed to be. For those of Bona's disposition I'll be reminded in future to write out in full "if I were mafia with Bunny go et al, which of course I'm not but this is a hypothetical, then I and my totally hypothetical mafia partners would have to be terrible at the game to make the play that has been suggested I and my totally hypothetical mafia partners might make." A bit of a mouthful but I'm told that CYA is the name of the game.

@Ghug I'll respond shortly

I'm waiting for the game where we're scum together lmao

[Bonatogether]

In non-game related question: I just got a very very spammy PM asking me for money. Whom do I report it to?

Yeah, I think I got that same PM

[BunnyGo]

In non-game related question: I just got a very very spammy PM asking me for money. Whom do I report it to?

Can’t you just flag the PM?

Thanks! I'd never noticed the ! option before.

[brainbomb]

If you think about mafia in hockey terms, scum always gets more shots on goal than town day 1. But as town you want to be on powerplays by day 3 or 4 and all shots on scum goal are devastating

What other ways can you compare mafia too?

Anal beads?

[Bonatogether]

If you think about mafia in hockey terms, scum always gets more shots on goal than town day 1. But as town you want to be on powerplays by day 3 or 4 and all shots on scum goal are devastating

What other ways can you compare mafia too?

Anal beads?

emc, no

[worcej]

Nobody seems interested in my theory about BunnyGo.

Hmm.

I read it and thought it rather weak. Also, Bunny is a good enough player to not be that bad to slip like that.

[brainbomb]

I feel like were being watched...

[worcej]

jasnah megatown

Why?

What do you mean "why"? This is someone literally offering to be scanned and flipped for the deputy.

That doesn’t automatically make her megatown

[brainbomb]

Worcej, can you walk me through your daily routine?

[Bonatogether]

Why?

What do you mean "why"? This is someone literally offering to be scanned and flipped for the deputy.

That doesn’t automatically make her megatown

That was

[Bonatogether]

What do you mean "why"? This is someone literally offering to be scanned and flipped for the deputy.

That doesn’t automatically make her megatown

That post was

[Jamiet99uk]

What do you mean "why"? This is someone literally offering to be scanned and flipped for the deputy.

That doesn’t automatically make her megatown

That was

Was what?

What are you attempting to say here?

[worcej]

OK. I hope I counted the scum correctly this time.

If there just 1 Item Thief, which can used 3 times, instead of 3 item thiefs. Then we would have started D1 with 6 evils: 5 scum and 1 alien. And also we had 14 meaningful town, since this is the 15 we started with minus kgray, and bozo was not in the game.

I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me intuitively that if you pick randomly 3 people, of the 14, you have 27% chance you get 3 town. So it's unlikely, but it's not impossible, even though human brain likes to interpret any % <50% as impossible, because we're all a bunch of monkeys. Consider this a minimum bound because scum are likely to run at least some interference to prevent a strong wagon on one of theirs where feasible. So let's say around 30% chance of 3 town wagon D1, for a conservative estimate. But Chaqa died and obviously we know he's town. So let's update our priors. Given that already 1 town is removed. The chance of two more randomly drawn, both being town, is 41%. Hardly impossible.

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

Damo can tell you the actual percentage you’re talking about.

[brainbomb]

how is it possible to be dodgy and present

[Foxcastle]

OK. I hope I counted the scum correctly this time.

If there just 1 Item Thief, which can used 3 times, instead of 3 item thiefs. Then we would have started D1 with 6 evils: 5 scum and 1 alien. And also we had 14 meaningful town, since this is the 15 we started with minus kgray, and bozo was not in the game.

I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me intuitively that if you pick randomly 3 people, of the 14, you have 27% chance you get 3 town. So it's unlikely, but it's not impossible, even though human brain likes to interpret any % <50% as impossible, because we're all a bunch of monkeys. Consider this a minimum bound because scum are likely to run at least some interference to prevent a strong wagon on one of theirs where feasible. So let's say around 30% chance of 3 town wagon D1, for a conservative estimate. But Chaqa died and obviously we know he's town. So let's update our priors. Given that already 1 town is removed. The chance of two more randomly drawn, both being town, is 41%. Hardly impossible.

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

Damo can tell you the actual percentage you’re talking about.

Hey BunnyGo, isn't this actually a version of the Monty Hall problem? (Where you assume that Jamie or Jasnah is definitely scum, anyway...)

[brainbomb]

Im not familiar with that reference foxxy

[brainbomb]

why are you never around to talk to me?