Mafia 65: Dreamland II [Hidden]

[jasnah]

There is nothing to 'buy', either you understand basic facts or you don't, and a lot of what you're saying is giving the impression that you don't or don't want to.

Also, I have been contacted privately regarding my call GM, and it's being sorted by GMs, not gonna say any more because I don't want to risk breaking rules.

[damo666]

So, D1 was either:
a) a TvTvT waste. In this case it's maybe worth looking at wagons that didn't materialize (all the high schoolers, strangely, and Vecna, who acts like one), but mostly it just sucks.
b) a jasnah save. This one's my favorite, at least pre-writing. First votes on jas were Chaqa/damo/bona/Fox, which put her tied for first, with only a Fox vote on Vecna in between (Jamie was in the lead here, so this could point to a Jamie/Fox team). This put her into a tie with Chaqa and Jamie. lfischl put Chaqa back ahead, emc tied it. Celaph put her in the lead, bona moved to tie it as he does. Brain put Chaqa in the lead. Bona moved back to tie it. Bunny and celaph moved to Jamie (putting him back in the running) and Chaqa (putting him in the lead) respectively. I moved to jasnah to tie it. Then thamrick jumps on Chaqa, Riot jumps on Jamie, and bona moves to tie again, making it 7-7-5. I, emc, and damo then pile on Chaqa in that order. In this scenario, I think damo, Fox, emc, and I look good (I always look good), emc and bona could go either way, and lfischl, brain, Bunny, thamrick, and Riot look bad. The fact that that many people would look bad makes me think there was a save involving a couple of scum and a couple of unwitting town.
c) a Jamie save, here I look pretty bad because I broke the tie. All those early voters on jasnah look not great, especially Fox because he also briefly tried to make Vecna competitive. Fischy still looks bad, brain too, maybe celaph, thamrick. Riot looks good, Bunny looks good. Bona's still hard to read based on the VCA, but probably a little better because he ended up killing the jasnah wagon to force a tie between Chaqa and Jamie.
d) a double save. lfischl, brain, thamrick, maybe me look bad here. Fox, emc, damo, Bunny, HR all look pretty good. Probably Bona too, as he only voted Chaqa early in the day.

We would be quite unlucky for it to be TvTvT. I propose we dk Jasnah tomorrow.

Why would TvTvT be unlucky? It happens all the time on here on D1. I think it's an error in thinking that there was meaning to the outcome of the Day when so often scum are sitting back and letting town trip over itself (which is just going to be the way Day 1 usually goes, so that's not a criticism of town).

it would be unlikely to have all 3 wagons as town so I would deem that unlucky

[jasnah]

Ghug, I am going to repeat this because it seems we're still not on the same page. Your disagreement with my read didn't piss me off. Not even you scum read me pissed me off seriously, not more than a usual base line "merde!" level of pissed off anyway. It was when you seemed to intentionally misconstrue what I wrote on a very basic level, that made me see red. It's the same reason I was so pissed off at Bona yesterday when he wrote "sCuMsLiP???@??@?!"

[BunnyGo]

I don't have the time to read 22 pages now, but I saw that we were endvoting, this is a good idea I would love to go hang out in QT with my buddies.

##end

Townslip here from jasnah?

She didn't know there was a daychat?

Between this and her pronoun "scumslip" I don't assign much weight to either.

[jasnah]

OK. I hope I counted the scum correctly this time.

If there just 1 Item Thief, which can used 3 times, instead of 3 item thiefs. Then we would have started D1 with 6 evils: 5 scum and 1 alien. And also we had 14 meaningful town, since this is the 15 we started with minus kgray, and bozo was not in the game.

I'm not a mathematician, but it seems to me intuitively that if you pick randomly 3 people, of the 14, you have 27% chance you get 3 town. So it's unlikely, but it's not impossible, even though human brain likes to interpret any % <50% as impossible, because we're all a bunch of monkeys. Consider this a minimum bound because scum are likely to run at least some interference to prevent a strong wagon on one of theirs where feasible. So let's say around 30% chance of 3 town wagon D1, for a conservative estimate. But Chaqa died and obviously we know he's town. So let's update our priors. Given that already 1 town is removed. The chance of two more randomly drawn, both being town, is 41%. Hardly impossible.

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

[jasnah]

@ Bunny go Where did I say anything about pronouns? You're the only person I can recall who wrote about me writing some pronoun which was incorrect. I literally don't know what you're talking about

[brainbomb]

.

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

LMFAO

[BunnyGo]

Nobody seems interested in my theory about BunnyGo.

Hmm.

What theory? That you are just alien hunting and suggesting town nerf themselves against the bigger scum team to do so? And that this is massively anti-town? And that you opened D1 with it and closed D1 with it again? Cool story. <cough> SCUM <cough> If I'm the alien for calling out how bad this is for town, then I'm the alien every game somebody suggests anti-town mech plays.

The thing is, you usually don't mess up the mechs and balance this much. So I don't get why you're tripling down on it.

[BunnyGo]

@ Bunny go Where did I say anything about pronouns? You're the only person I can recall who wrote about me writing some pronoun which was incorrect. I literally don't know what you're talking about

"we"

[BunnyGo]

I'm going to claim that there's at most 1 scum in my voters from earlier, since they all went to different wagons and haven't joined back up.

We'd have to be mega smooth brained to stack multiple scum on a low probability wagon near the start of D1, but given that the substantive claim here is that Bob and bunny go aren't scum team, I can tolerate it

For Jasnah. Pronoun trouble.

[Foxcastle]

We would be quite unlucky for it to be TvTvT. I propose we dk Jasnah tomorrow.

Why would TvTvT be unlucky? It happens all the time on here on D1. I think it's an error in thinking that there was meaning to the outcome of the Day when so often scum are sitting back and letting town trip over itself (which is just going to be the way Day 1 usually goes, so that's not a criticism of town).

it would be unlikely to have all 3 wagons as town so I would deem that unlucky

Why would it be unlikely? The wagons are not the process of a random draw. They are the result of scum actively avoiding being a wagon, scum actively trying to generate town wagons, and the complex interplay of town trying to find scum and being more likely to get it wrong than right.

Who do you think are the scum who voted for Chaqa?

[brainbomb]

Seren is amazing

[BunnyGo]

jasnah's EFFORTPOST

Greetings earthlings and alien.

I am announcing myself as the public representative of Satellite Phone QT. I think we need such a person to bring town the juiciest gossip of the night and I've elected myself to do it for several reasons, one being that of Satellite Phoners I believe I'm the most likely to die or have my phone stolen soon.

I'm positive that there are at least 3 and likely 4 satellite phones in play; understanding 4 to be the maximum and trusting GMs to minimal level of competence I would estimate the number of phones in play at exactly 4. I think the sat phone QT is town majority and I'm almost certain it's at least two town, but at this time I don't think it's 4 town. I've confirmed the identity of one other member and I'm almost certain of a second identity.

Certain interactions lead me to believe based on very circumstantial evidence that Jamiet is somewhat more likely to be scum than I had previously anticipated, but only on a scum team that either is playing some 4D chess or invalidates a lot of what I wrote on D1.

Now time for everyone's favourite housekeeping. I would like to request that I'm scanned tonight. I believe I am an optimal scan for several reasons:

• There is a decent chance that I will be flipped tomorrow, so, give the deputy info on his sanity.

• If not flipped and later become town clear, I have rare quality of being able to lead town to victory, so one less scan available is no problem, just need to elect me your leader.

• As a main wagon yesterday and the leading wagon around 1 hour before EOD, there was significant vote activity around me, and so fertile ground for all of you tryhards to farm pet theories regarding who I may be connected to.

• I have night QT communication with likely 3 others who are passing on what I consider an acceptable amount of info.

I'll continue to update as circumstances develop, any questions, I know pew pew pew is fun, but please shout before you pull out the M16. I'm itching for a 1v1.

Town needs to hear from Vecna. Hopefully he has a new read for D2 that we'll be guaranteed to kill scum if we sheep. Where is he?

Love this effortpost.

[BunnyGo]

jasnah's EFFORTPOST
/sniiiiiip

this is a hella strange post from jasnah
i instinctively hate it for being way out of line with meta
but at the same time it seems very town motivated

Say more about why you hate this awesome post?

[brainbomb]

The amount of saying fuck you to the establishment coming from jasnah is so goddamn refreshing because it feels exactly how ive felt for years being treated like complete shit by the know it all pretentious douchery

[Vecna]

From just throwing a general glance at this page, im gonna have a fun time catching up, aint I?

(scum/alien, plz kill me so I dont have to try-hard tomorrow).

[damo666]

@ brain bomb No, because as far as I can tell they don't, I have a slight read which is based on town reading one or more of QT members, and not considering them a team with Jamie.

@ ghug I agree, but I think it's unlikely that you (or I tbh) would start pushing Bona as scum for writing something like this. It's far from his worst.

Town don't know who their team mates are so how does this work?

[BunnyGo]

It's a good thing nobody came here to do statistics. Who cares if it's 41% chance that me and Jamie are two town? You care whether we actually are town or not. So all of you losers talking about 'unlucky' and 'unlikely to 3 town wagon' can suck a dick, because that's pretty much beside the point unless you want to turn Mafia into an Every Day Policy Kill game.

I am a mathematician, and I agree with this so much.

[damo666]

There is nothing to 'buy', either you understand basic facts or you don't, and a lot of what you're saying is giving the impression that you don't or don't want to.

Also, I have been contacted privately regarding my call GM, and it's being sorted by GMs, not gonna say any more because I don't want to risk breaking rules.

Imo you have already broken rule 10.

[ghug]

Ghug, I am going to repeat this because it seems we're still not on the same page. Your disagreement with my read didn't piss me off. Not even you scum read me pissed me off seriously, not more than a usual base line "merde!" level of pissed off anyway. It was when you seemed to intentionally misconstrue what I wrote on a very basic level, that made me see red. It's the same reason I was so pissed off at Bona yesterday when he wrote "sCuMsLiP???@??@?!"

I still don't know what it is you think I was misconstruing. Spell it out to me as if I'm as stupid as you think I am.