MAFIA 64 - The Z Files - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[e.m.c^42]

Can I just say I'm really glad emc is around? He's got a lot of interesting thoughts which seem townie to me.

Huh. Which ones?

[ghug]

I don't understand why people are all fussed about the "WHO IS ONLINE" feature. It literally gives no useful information and has always been around, and breaks about as much privacy as seeing someone's post pop up in a thread.

Knowing who's PMing the GM at night is a pretty big deal

[BobMcBob]

Hm, might be worth noting, townread of HB on my part is due to his misread of one of my posts at one point.

Hamilton is the towniest townie that ever townied. Look at the way he handled CCing Ezio and how excited he was to have info. Scum!Hamilton could not have pulled that off.

I agree with this. HB is very likely town. It would be a very impressive play as scum that I wouldn't expect from him.

[brainbomb]

21 players 14% chance of a player drawing two bad guy roles is a minimum of 3 bad guys in sum. The setup cannot proceed without minimum 3.

Alternatively a GM would cap max scum in a 21 player setup as well.

Accounting for adventurers and people who wanna try their luck, id say theres exactly 6 bad guys in the setup.

any combo possible beyond 6 is a higher than 30% scum to town ratio which is a radical imbalance

[e.m.c^42]

Time for no regrets, making a bet for post-game: if total top five posters have don't have at least three alignments in them, 50 Shades of webDip will be coming to full life with audience participation.

This is a bet we want to try and lose, right? I don't wanna be cast in this...

I'd rather lose it.

Good taste. If bet is indeed lost and there are only two or one alignments in top five posters, then you can have first choice in picking your cast.

[brainbomb]

if bunny saw ppl PMing Jamie he needs to sub out. nobody should know specific TMI about who sent orders

[BobMcBob]

Can I just say I'm really glad emc is around? He's got a lot of interesting thoughts which seem townie to me.

Huh. Which ones?

Well back on the low 260's there was a lot of tonality and motivation stuff that just seemed like it had thought behind it. Nothing solid, no motivation analysis, just vibes y'know?

[BobMcBob]

Can I just say I'm really glad emc is around? He's got a lot of interesting thoughts which seem townie to me.

Huh. Which ones?

Well back on the low 260's there was a lot of tonality and motivation stuff that just seemed like it had thought behind it. I have nothing solid, no motivation analysis, just getting vibes y'know?

Correction

[e.m.c^42]

I don't understand why people are all fussed about the "WHO IS ONLINE" feature. It literally gives no useful information and has always been around, and breaks about as much privacy as seeing someone's post pop up in a thread.

Knowing who's PMing the GM at night is a pretty big deal

It's always been open info, no? And it says nothing about private messaging specifics, could be anything game or non-game related, so dunno why people would bother over it when it is this imprecise. It's on the same level of assuming things based off of Discord friend statuses.

[e.m.c^42]

So in all, I think it's a bunch of irrelevant shit people have been using as artificial activity and content booster. Bleh. Would scumread for it except that expectations of people here are of the level that they would indeed take it in all seriousness lol

[brainbomb]

Come on people, where are these imaginary scum motivations? Why is rdrivera completely skipping out on answering why the *fuck* he would claim he was obviously softing a PR at night for no reason whatsoever and yet at the same time claim he understood why he was wagon?

Ah the ole appeal to audience.

Vivaldi really

[BunnyGo]

21 players 14% chance of a player drawing two bad guy roles is a minimum of 3 bad guys in sum. The setup cannot proceed without minimum 3.

Alternatively a GM would cap max scum in a 21 player setup as well.

Accounting for adventurers and people who wanna try their luck, id say theres exactly 6 bad guys in the setup.

any combo possible beyond 6 is a higher than 30% scum to town ratio which is a radical imbalance

Ok, further math while we wait and I can't sleep:

16 mafia cards. Of the 42/68 cards, you'd expect about 10-11 offered. Odds of any one person getting offered at least 1 is about 42%. Odds of any one person being offered 2 is about 5%.

So on average you expect 1 person to have been offered 2 mafia cards, but this has a bit of variance to it and 0 is not unlikely (over 40%).

9 people already claimed they discarded a mafia role.

If 10 cards were offered, and 1 person offered a double...that's the only mafia.

If the discards are true, the odds of at least 2 people having been offered only mafia cards is somewhat low (about 20%).

Maybe more than 11 cards were offered?

But I wouldn't be surprised with anywhere from 0-3 mafia.(This includes lies about discards, and excess offerings or people forced to take a mafia role).

[BunnyGo]

if bunny saw ppl PMing Jamie he needs to sub out. nobody should know specific TMI about who sent orders

I PMd him many times last night about lots of things. You can too. It's not info at all. The only info I'm pondering is ghug's response.

[e.m.c^42]

##vote brain as placeholder for the moment, poor Jamie and Dargo have had enough conniptions over sending me daily voting nudges. Will relieve 'em of it for today.

HR's likelihood of scum is not low, for not pushing his "EMC's been shite so far" thing more than the off-comment. Don't think he was that scared off of having opinions of me. At same time this does seem like a setup, I just can't tell in which direction by who.

[BunnyGo]

So in all, I think it's a bunch of irrelevant shit people have been using as artificial activity and content booster. Bleh. Would scumread for it except that expectations of people here are of the level that they would indeed take it in all seriousness lol

Clearly said.

[kgray]

So in all, I think it's a bunch of irrelevant shit people have been using as artificial activity and content booster. Bleh. Would scumread for it except that expectations of people here are of the level that they would indeed take it in all seriousness lol

This level of dismissiveness and superiority is really not something I associate with emc.

[Bonatogether]

Bona's thoughts on likely dynamics and strategies, part 1

Aliens cannot win on nks unless the game has gone absolutely flawlessly for them. Therefore, they must win by misdirecting dks into giving them supermajority (cause mafia + sk can knock them down faster than they can dk everyone else). HOWEVER, they can't lead town, since each dead alien from nks results in days more of miskills for them to get majority. They're probably trying to follow the herd and blend in as mildly scummy or mildly townie people, making plays that aren't out of line for their town meta.

Mafia is trying to get majority, but they have an edge on aliens: they can nk (almost) every night. They can try to either lead town (since there's little chance of them being wiped out on nks, since they're the main source of them) or to do a similar strategy to the alien best strategy of just playing to their meta and waiting it out.

Serial killer loses if mafia or alien gain majority while not alerting town to their presence. Therefore, they need to try to dk mafia and aliens up until those teams are basically wiped out (~2 members between each, preferably mafia gone). Then they can start nking town willy-nilly, since no PR can catch them. Their incentives line up town right up until late game, so we don't need to worry about them for ages.

Town loses if anyone else gains majority. They have majority now, but will lose it in the next few days. They need to daykill mafia first, since mafia can nk every night and have no reason not to. Aliens are second priority, since they can't nk as often, but they can screw with the town's PRs, making old fashioned solving necessary. Sk is absolutely not a priority and has the same incentives until very late game and so should not be actively hunted for over other scumteams.

[kgray]

So in all, I think it's a bunch of irrelevant shit people have been using as artificial activity and content booster. Bleh. Would scumread for it except that expectations of people here are of the level that they would indeed take it in all seriousness lol

Clearly said.

It is something I'd expect from Bunny, though, so this makes sense

[e.m.c^42]

Come regale me with your words, RHK. Your tongue is something tremendously talented and a personal demonstration would be a delight.

[kgray]

if bunny saw ppl PMing Jamie he needs to sub out. nobody should know specific TMI about who sent orders

I PMd him many times last night about lots of things. You can too. It's not info at all. The only info I'm pondering is ghug's response.

Why aren't you interested in my response? It was basically the same as ghug's.