MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[sheepsaysmeep]

hi i forgot this exists

[RagingIke297]

Just something I put together from looking at end of day vote counts:

Ended on D1 Wagon:
Worecj
DrCJG
Phil_a_s

Ended on D2 Wagon:
Sheepsaysmeep
Yav (Marneus_Calgar)

Ended on both wagons:
Teacher2
Me (XY4)

Hasn't ended on a wagon:
BancroftS
Damo666

Damo is a duh he was the lead wagon, but Bancroft isn't so much open and closed.

In a newbie game I would expect that the scum would want to stay away from being on the same wagons and having the same ideas. Teacher is claiming a save and I'm town so I'm further inclined to think that there is one scum in each of the top two categories initially.

Another thing, I'm a little concerned that the game has tapered off in activity. D1 was Pg. 1-14
N1 was Pg. 14-17
D2 was Pg. 18-24 even though it had an extra day
N2 has been basically half a page and there is like 5ish hours left

I think we need to look who was driving conversations and discussions D/N1 and why they've stopped doing so in D/N2.

[worcej]

@Ike - Not sure why it died down so much honestly, other than Bancroft disappearing, xy4 being banned, and sheep once again forgetting this game existed. The main drivers for conversation have really been teacher and phil, with DrCJG, Yav, and myself responding and poking back but not instigating much.

[sheepsaysmeep]

yavu dies next zzz

[sheepsaysmeep]

i dont even remember my reads anymore outside of yavu wolf cjg villager

[sheepsaysmeep]

note

if there's a cop they can claim so we know there's no doc which means the teacher clear is fake

but there's almost always a doc with teacher as an inno here so we should be fine and there's no need to leave cover

[teacher2]

Im silent because I horribly misled town in a way that allowed scum to sit back and let it happen rather than themselves actively misdirect.

I think I die in 3.5 hours, so I may as well share my final thoughts. Take them with the knowledge that my two strongest expressed reads all game have benen wrong.

First I think all town should vote no lynch and end immediately after phase turn. Dont get scum any additional info to process when deciding whom to kill N3. And dont lynch at mylo.

Second, I am still fairly to very confident in my my Phil is town read. Thanks for everything, including how active youve been. I dont think scum!phil gets rid of the chance of pushing a mislynch on me tomorrow by ointing out how my docsave claim is falsifiable and worth it to counter. His other theory points have been sound, and the reads dont feel forced.

Third, I lean Worcej as scum. To be honest, with the Bancroft flip, his efforts to save Bancroft feel worse. I normally assume someone hard defending a town that is likely to be lynched is scum, becuase they want the cred. This fits here, as it does with a newb staying on a possible doctor wagon the day before. This is my least confident scumlean though.

Fourth, DrCJG. I said yesterday something has been pinging me, and something certainly has. I cant say exactly why, He has been getting far less solvey and less active. Almost along the lines of sheep, but doesnt have the roleblock claim (that makes sense). At least one of the two of them is scum. I fell stronger about this shared read than Worcej alone. On balance, Id put the scum on sheep for the multiple "forgettings" including EoDs and posting.

Fifth, if there is a roleblock claim following my death, be super suspicious, because scum know I cant be saved.

Ill be around to answer questions, and please save the town from my mistakes. If sheep makes it to Lylo, theyd probably be my preferred lynch.

[DrCJG]

I think it is unlikely I will die as I expect the mafia to finish off Teacher but I will not be around at EoD so incase I am wrong:

DrCJG's Reads and Questions 2.5
Most Town to Most Scum:

RIP

• Damo666
• Bancroft

Town

• DrCJG – I feel like I have lost my faith in all of you

Assumed Town

• Teacher – With Teacher essentially towncleared and assumed to be the docotor’s previous save… I expect him to be killed tonight… if not, I am sure the PR will let us know if we need to turn on him.

Null

• Yav – I don’t understand Yav’s personality… I tunneled him in my previous game because his style jumped out to me as scummy and I thought others would think the same… again he seems somewhat scummy, but there really isn’t enough information on him… he could practically be a scum buddy with anyone, could be a VT, or the PR.
• Sheep – Has begun to remind me of Ezio or Snowy from my previous game (in a bad way) due to his lack of interest, which makes me think he may still be town. But, his lack of involvement makes him almost as deadly as if he were scum…
  • IF Ike is town – then I think Sheep is scum. D1 would have been TvTvT and Sheep could have just dropped a vote on Bancroft and avoided the attention of moving around at the EoD. He could have a scummate in Yav or Worcej… in D2 Worcej’s wagon never really took off but he remained off wagon and could have pushed Bancroft over the top if he had drawn any real heat.
  • His decline in activity could just be a way of avoiding attention and letting the town destroy itself… though I would expect him to rejoin the conversation a little more just to avoid the added attention he is gaining from being completely absent.
• Phil - I hope you are town, otherwise I will feel pretty dumb. We are seeing eye to eye on so much… particularly Worcej’s latest posts… if it is actually fabricated by you, then well played. I appreciated your pressure on Worcej… though as I look back it does feel a little over the top at times and most of his faulty logic/decision making could be caused by him being a new player.
  • Originally I thought your D1 voting just meshed with mine but I did question your refusal to leave Damo and IF Ike is scum it makes your short time on Xy4 look like you were bussing. Ike is about the only person I could see you being scum buddy with… but he is my top target… so for now you will stay null.

Scumlean

• Worcej – You responded so well to question D1 that I really felt like you were town, but your posts have gone from bad to worse since. I originally voted you to see what reactions we would get especially if we could get a Phil v Worcej race going… but it never took off with only Phil joining me in my vote on you. Something I found particularly odd since it felt to me like you were really digging a hole and I though surely others were growing suspicious of you…
  • If teacher had joined my wagon on you… I would be confident that you are scum and that your scumbuddy Sheep, Ike, or Yav was working on Bancroft to prevent you from taking off…
  • Since he didn’t and was part of the Bancroft push… I question if Phil took advantage of my vote on you and your “new player” tendencies were made to seem scummy
• Ike – Xy4’s decision to claim that you scanned Phil N1 was pretty suspect to me, because I felt like Phil was a very likely NK target given he was being widely town read. It felt like you were trying to buddy Phil and avoid being limited in who you could vote for at the end of the day… I was pretty confident that either you or Bancroft was scum… Bancroft turned out town so your at the top of my list. You being scum with one of Worcej, Phil, or Yav is a very likely scenario.
  • IF you are town… that makes D1 TvTvT, statistically unlikely… though as I said before… I feel like we have been drawn to new player mistakes… so still pretty possible.

I think Ike & Worcej is the most likely scum team. IF Ike is town then D1 was TvTvT so I would look to Sheep who happily lurked with Worcej or Yav as a likely scum team.

[teacher2]

^^^^
Ive been missing that. Thanks Dr.

2 scum in (Worcej-Ike-Sheep-Yavu).

Adios, amigos.

[teacher2]

(for others, that means Dr's post seems sound to me, but it is also a good way to salt the earth for lylo by allowing a push in any direction)

[DrCJG]

Sorry, Teacher... I think I did drop the ball a bit on D2. With father's day I just kept checking hoping for someone to have discovered something and didn't get involved enough...

I wasn't thinking about a no-lynch vote, so help me make sure i understand... Assuming we have a doctor and that you will be NK'd... D3 will start with us at 4-2

A mislynch would make it 3-2 and if the doctor fails to save then mafia would win... your suggestion is to vote no lynch such that it goes into the night 4-2... the doctor has a chance to save someone but if they don't then it becomes 3-2 giving us better odds of guessing the mafia and with potentially more information.

[yavuzovic]

I really want to see scum teacher. He is very obvious town for two games.

How can we be sure that teacher was targeted yesterday? Maybe, uh.. Miracles happen only once.

That's very bad to see Jamiet is here to give us the bad new.

If there is someone who feels towny as much as teacher, he is DrCJG.

[teacher2]

Exactly on the no lynch theory. Perhaps you add a known town. At least you lose one mislynch candidate and could do better associations analysis. It’s almost always best to no lynch at mylo, and that is what tomorrow is.

[teacher2]

And scum teacher is just like this. But at least then my terrible reads are a strength and not a weakness :)

[yavuzovic]

Exactly on the no lynch theory. Perhaps you add a known town. At least you lose one mislynch candidate and could do better associations analysis. It’s almost always best to no lynch at mylo, and that is what tomorrow is.

Can I say:
Unless there's a obvious mafia.

[yavuzovic]

Oh wait I thought EoN must have happened 5 minutes ago.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

Night will end in one hour and 40 minutes.

[RagingIke297]

worcej and sheep seem like they're hunting PR. worcej's huge chunk of posting was trying to discern the PR and made some interesting assumptions and conclusions. sheep has pretty openly said he's not too interested in the game, but given his prior experience I think its more of a play to get away with not posting.

[sheepsaysmeep]

worcej and sheep seem like they're hunting PR. worcej's huge chunk of posting was trying to discern the PR and made some interesting assumptions and conclusions. sheep has pretty openly said he's not too interested in the game, but given his prior experience I think its more of a play to get away with not posting.

-what part of what ive posted makes you think im trying to search for prs?
-why do you think me being more experienced means im more likely to be interested in the game?

[teacher2]

Also, fwiw, worcej was online EoN1 which - since he is clearly not the doctor - makes me think he wanted to see how his kill fared. But maybe I’m just reading way too much into that (I as VT was there too, but I’m an addict....)