MAFIA 64 - The Z Files - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Hellenic Riot]

So given the argument seems to be that Bunny was the most likely to have been 'saved' there, I've decided to analyse this more closely as that really doesn't tally with what I saw.

Let's start at one hour prior to EoD, when Bob voted Lfisch and tied it at 6-6 in the lead, with Bozo on 3 and Bunny & celaph on 0. At this time we see:

LFischL (6): BobMcBob, BunnyGo, celaph, Donny Dude, ghug, Hamilton Brian
rdrivera2005 (6): bozotheclown, brainbomb, DemonRHK, jasnah, kgray, lfischl
bozotheclown (3): Bonatogether, damo666, Macca573

From here, we then see:
- brainbomb moves from rdrivera to BunnyGo (6-5-3-1), T-45 minutes remaining
- kgray moves from rdrivera to BunnyGo (6-4-3-2)
- Bonatogether moves from bozotheclown to BunnyGo (6-4-2-3)
- DemonRHK moves from rdrivera to BunnyGo (6-3-2-4)
- celaph moves from lfischl to BunnyGo (5-3-2-5)
- ghug moves from lfischl to BunnyGo (4-3-2-6), T-22

So we see six votes in a row move onto BunnyGo, coming from all three other potential wagons, with zero consolidation by anyone else onto any of the pre-existing wagons in this period - Which is the period when you would expect to see people moving to rescue BunnyGo. Instead, what we see is BunnyGo being forced to make his semi-claim at approximately T-20 minutes. So if there was a rescue mission going on, it's failed hard already.

From here we then see:

- ghug moves from BunnyGo back to lfischl (5-3-2-5), T-17 minutes
- HR votes rdrivera2005 (5-4-2-5)
- kgray moves from BunnyGo onto new wagon celaph (5-4-2-4-1)
- Donny Dude moves from lfischl onto celaph (4-4-2-4-2)
- ghug moves from lfischl to celaph (3-4-2-4-3)
- BunnyGo moves from lfischl to celaph (2-4-2-4-4) - Nadir of lfischl wagon
- Bonatogether moves from BunnyGo to rdrivera (2-5-2-3-4) - rdrivera takes lead, T-15 minutes
- DemonRHK moves from BunnyGo to celaph (2-5-2-2-5) - Tied between rdrivera & celaph
- damo666 now moves from bozotheclown to... BunnyGo (2-5-1-3-5) - End of bozo as plausible wagon.
- Bonatogether moves again, from rdrivera to celaph (2-4-1-3-6) - celaph takes the lead for the first time

- emc votes lfischl, reawakening that wagon (3-4-1-3-6)
- celaph moves from BunnyGo to lfischl, interestingly choosing the lesser wagon out of fisch & rdrivera to make his saving vote on (4-4-1-2-6) - End of BunnyGo as plausible wagon
- ghug moves back from celaph to lfischl (5-4-1-2-5) - Tied again
- damo666 now moves off of the dead BunnyGo wagon onto lfischl (6-4-1-2-5) - T-9 minutes remaining with lfischl retaking the lead
- ghug moves off of lfischl again, this time onto an Ezio vanity wagon (5-4-1-2-5)
- lfischl changes his protection vote from rdrivera to celaph (5-3-1-2-6) - celaph retakes the lead
- Ezio makes his first real vote by voting lfischl (6-3-1-2-6) - Vote retied
- Maniac changes from bb vanity wagon to rdrivera (6-4-1-2-6) - rdrivera wagon has new life at T-7 minutes

---

At this point it looks like an lfischl vs celaph wagon with rdrivera as an outside contender and all other wagons being irrelevant, so I'm going to stop tracking the Bozo/Bunny wagons and narrow it to these three.

- Maniac, seeing no more votes for rdrivera, changes onto celaph (6-3-7) - celaph takes the lead again at T-5 minutes
- jasnah moves from rdrivera to celaph (6-2-8) - End of rdrivera as a plausible wagon at T-4 minutes

From there the rest of the changes are Bona troll-tying it by going from celaph to lfischl and back again and ghug & I trying to untie it, which has already been discussed.

---

So, taking into account that we know lfischl was town and therefore it's pretty unlikely anyone was trying to save him - Was there anyone else being 'saved'?

Well, the first and most notable thing is that the BunnyGo wagon formed initially when it was a straight fight between lfischl and rdrivera (with an outside stagnant wagon on Bozo). This went from 0-100mph and took the lead without a single other wagon gaining votes. Not only does this look pretty good for Bunny, but given that we know lfischl was town it looks pretty bad for rdrivera, as there's now a plausible option that it was *him* that was being saved. But did it continue?

The next important point is that 3 people (brain, kgray, DemonRHK) moved from rdrivera to BunnyGo, while 2 people (ghug & celaph) moved from lfischl. Of those, both former lfisch voters went back to lfisch after Bunny's claim. Brain didn't ever leave Bunny so can be disregarded. But neither of the other two people who left rdrivera for Bunny went back to him, with both kgray & DemonRHK instead going to the new celaph wagon - And this is of course despite rdrivera being totally absent and thus certainly not changing anyone's minds on him.

Now celaph is the second late speedwagon we've seen in this EoD period, so let's also look at who joined both of them: A list that contains kgray, DemonRHK, Bonatogether (before his final shenanigans began), and twice briefly ghug in amongst all his rapid moving of votes. Could some of them have been trying to protect rdrivera? It's certainly plausible - Although Bona's voting of rdrivera when he left Bunny put rdrivera in the lead and so he looks less likely to be doing that, although he may have just expected more people to transition back to rdrivera.

What about people who consolidated on lfischl when rdrivera was the lead wagon? This group contains emc, celaph, ghug, Ezio, and damo - With the caveat of ghug moving off again to Ezio and then opposing the Bonadisaster. Given celaph had voted lfisch his vote doesn't look particularly suspicious, but damo had been on rdrivera prior to his late vote for the dead Bunny wagon and then transitioned onto lfisch instead (at a time when lfish and rdrivera were tied)... Making damo's vote look *EXTREMELY* bad, as he went from lead wagon rivera to dead wagon to alternate wagon to rivera.

---

So if rdrivera is scum, there's a very good chance that it was him that people were trying to save. damo looks the most likely candidate for a rdrivera-rescuer, with kgray and DemonRHK also both leaving rdrivera to start two different flashwagons and therefore also being solid candidates. Emc & Ezio coming from nowhere to vote lfischl also doesn't look particularly good. And ghug's flopping onto Everyone-But-Rdrivera looks pretty abysmal.


-----------

What about if celaph is scum?

In that case, everything from before Bunny's claim can be ignored and we can focus solely on the people who voted after celaph's wagon became a thing. Of those, only Bonatogether and Maniac voted rdrivera, and Maniac then switched to celaph so he looks pretty good. Bona does not, given the ensuing shitstorm. But the late lfischl voters look worst of all: emc, Ezio, and once again damo. ghug's switch to a vanity Ezio wagon after lfisch took the lead by one over celaph looks a lot less bad in this scenario though.

--------

So who looks worst over all?

damo unquestionably has the worst vote pattern at that EoD and could have feasibly protected one or even both of rdrivera & celaph. emc & Ezio's late lfisch votes look pretty poor in either scenario but given they came from void wagons they're harder to read into. ghug looks very bad if rdrivera is scum but decent if celaph is. Bona looks decent if rdrivera is scum but very bad if celaph is (excluding the tying shit). kgray and DemonRHK both look pretty bad if rdrivera is scum, too.

[Hellenic Riot]

@Bonatogether

For someone who was so keen to get good info for VCA all of D1, why did I have to do all of that myself?

[brainbomb]

hmmmmm

[Bonatogether]

@Bonatogether

For someone who was so keen to get good info for VCA all of D1, why did I have to do all of that myself?

Cause I figure my credibility is in the tank and that people will say that I'm just trying to cover for myself

[kgray]

You could argue that this is a case where having two games of experience is worse than none, but last game disagrees with you on that. The vote was tied with <1 left and ghug sat there doing nothing.

Right, but that's why I said his movement could be him mimicking his town game. He was caught and killed fairly quickly last game so I imagine he'd put more effort into replicating his town game if he's scum again.

Why do you think not caring who dies (obviously restricted to the people on the chopping block) is scummy? If I think that the two I'm choosing between have similar likelihoods of being scum then I much prefer the info from either dying than ending in a tie.

If the leading wagons aren't scum's teammates, why would scum really care who dies? Maybe they have a slight preference based on what those people's reads are, or how good they generally are at solving, but at the end of the day if it's not a teammate then that's all scum really care about.

Townies, on the other hand, generally have some sort of preference, even if it's just gut or if it isn't strong. So if the wagons are TvT (like they were from your perspective if you're town) then ambivalence is generally scummy. You don't find it scummy that ghug didn't care who died, hence my questioning of your towniness.

[Hellenic Riot]

@Bonatogether

For someone who was so keen to get good info for VCA all of D1, why did I have to do all of that myself?

Cause I figure my credibility is in the tank and that people will say that I'm just trying to cover for myself

So rather than use the thing you've vociferously desired all game to try and find scum you'd rather just wallow in self-pity in case you get autodaykilled? Alright then.

[kgray]

What's the spread on those of us that are PST or over in Australia? Seems like there are many people that we'd like to hear from. Mania. Vecna. Damo. Jasnah. Ezio. Celaph.

Will post again after the night's results if I survive. I've got nothing meaningful to offer if I don't.

I think town!damo usually cares more.

[Hamilton Brian]

Just checking this on the cool down from my run. HR, thank you so much for doing that. It’s what I’ve been looking to do but I wasn’t sure where exactly to start. I was looking at the one hour mark, the 15 minute mark. I’ll give it a Nother read to see what conclusion you were arriving at.

And if this is scum! HR doing this, then my hats off to you, because that is a hell of a lot of fake effort.

[Bonatogether]

@Bonatogether

For someone who was so keen to get good info for VCA all of D1, why did I have to do all of that myself?

Cause I figure my credibility is in the tank and that people will say that I'm just trying to cover for myself

So rather than use the thing you've vociferously desired all game to try and find scum you'd rather just wallow in self-pity in case you get autodaykilled? Alright then.

No, I don't think people will read it for what it is, but will rather take it as a defense of the whole tying thing

[Hellenic Riot]

Cause I figure my credibility is in the tank and that people will say that I'm just trying to cover for myself

So rather than use the thing you've vociferously desired all game to try and find scum you'd rather just wallow in self-pity in case you get autodaykilled? Alright then.

No, I don't think people will read it for what it is, but will rather take it as a defense of the whole tying thing

But unless you're going to scumread yourself for tying it, why are you not doing the VCA to work out who *YOU* think is scum? I don't care whether you think people would believe you. I care that you made a concerted push for there to be VCA so you could use it to find scum, but then you aren't using it to find scum.

[kgray]

@ kgray Have we played together? I know like two people in this game. Unless some of you are also involved with the fringe community of Diplomacy, I don't know what reputation I could have carried in.

No, I just recognize you from the forum here and on discord, and I know that you're very opinionated and not afraid to share those opinions.

[Bonatogether]

So rather than use the thing you've vociferously desired all game to try and find scum you'd rather just wallow in self-pity in case you get autodaykilled? Alright then.

No, I don't think people will read it for what it is, but will rather take it as a defense of the whole tying thing

But unless you're going to scumread yourself for tying it, why are you not doing the VCA to work out who *YOU* think is scum? I don't care whether you think people would believe you. I care that you made a concerted push for there to be VCA so you could use it to find scum, but then you aren't using it to find scum.

I know who I think is scum

[brainbomb]

Ive never seen HR pander harder for cred than this though. Usually hes take it or leave it, read my case or dont, just dont pretend I didnt do it.

HR doesnt typically need to be lauded for doing anything

[kgray]

<snip>

HR has failed to point out that when he finally voted for Rivera, after discouraging the wagon up to that point, it was after all those people moved to Bunny, so Rivera at the time was looking *extremely* unlikely to flip despite HR putting Rivera at 4 votes with Bunny and lfishl in the lead with 5. Joining a wagon after it lost its momentum but while the numbers are still relatively close seems like a pretty great way to distance yourself from your teammate.

[kgray]

No, I don't think people will read it for what it is, but will rather take it as a defense of the whole tying thing

But unless you're going to scumread yourself for tying it, why are you not doing the VCA to work out who *YOU* think is scum? I don't care whether you think people would believe you. I care that you made a concerted push for there to be VCA so you could use it to find scum, but then you aren't using it to find scum.

I know who I think is scum

Is it based on VCA? And how did EOD change your reads?

[Hellenic Riot]

<snip>

HR has failed to point out that when he finally voted for Rivera, after discouraging the wagon up to that point, it was after all those people moved to Bunny, so Rivera at the time was looking *extremely* unlikely to flip despite HR putting Rivera at 4 votes with Bunny and lfishl in the lead with 5. Joining a wagon after it lost its momentum but while the numbers are still relatively close seems like a pretty great way to distance yourself from your teammate.

Did you miss the part where Bona then voted rdrivera and actually put him in the lead after my vote? Or the part where Maniac joined it later too? Doesn't seem like a very dead wagon to me. In fact, the excuse that it was a dead-wagon that coincidentally took the lead looks like a great excuse for explaining why you didn't go back to your teammate when the votes really mattered.

[ghug]

You could argue that this is a case where having two games of experience is worse than none, but last game disagrees with you on that. The vote was tied with <1 left and ghug sat there doing nothing.

Right, but that's why I said his movement could be him mimicking his town game. He was caught and killed fairly quickly last game so I imagine he'd put more effort into replicating his town game if he's scum again.

Why do you think not caring who dies (obviously restricted to the people on the chopping block) is scummy? If I think that the two I'm choosing between have similar likelihoods of being scum then I much prefer the info from either dying than ending in a tie.

If the leading wagons aren't scum's teammates, why would scum really care who dies? Maybe they have a slight preference based on what those people's reads are, or how good they generally are at solving, but at the end of the day if it's not a teammate then that's all scum really care about.

Townies, on the other hand, generally have some sort of preference, even if it's just gut or if it isn't strong. So if the wagons are TvT (like they were from your perspective if you're town) then ambivalence is generally scummy. You don't find it scummy that ghug didn't care who died, hence my questioning of your towniness.

I think the post you're quoting is about celaph not claiming (referencing me not claiming when I was tied for the lead last game, which happened because my teammate had claimed the role I had planned to claim).

As for my not caring which of the two went down, you have to remember that I was instrumental in putting both on the block in the first place. I was excited to see either die, and wanted to see where others fell.

[kgray]

<snip>

HR has failed to point out that when he finally voted for Rivera, after discouraging the wagon up to that point, it was after all those people moved to Bunny, so Rivera at the time was looking *extremely* unlikely to flip despite HR putting Rivera at 4 votes with Bunny and lfishl in the lead with 5. Joining a wagon after it lost its momentum but while the numbers are still relatively close seems like a pretty great way to distance yourself from your teammate.

Did you miss the part where Bona then voted rdrivera and actually put him in the lead after my vote? Or the part where Maniac joined it later too? Doesn't seem like a very dead wagon to me. In fact, the excuse that it was a dead-wagon that coincidentally took the lead looks like a great excuse for explaining why you didn't go back to your teammate when the votes really mattered.

I'm not talking about what happened afterwards. I still don't understand how you discourage the Rivera wagon, tell me he's acting like he did as town and that you're not going to scumread him for that, and then jump on that wagon after a giant movement towards another wagon.

[Hellenic Riot]

HR has failed to point out that when he finally voted for Rivera, after discouraging the wagon up to that point, it was after all those people moved to Bunny, so Rivera at the time was looking *extremely* unlikely to flip despite HR putting Rivera at 4 votes with Bunny and lfishl in the lead with 5. Joining a wagon after it lost its momentum but while the numbers are still relatively close seems like a pretty great way to distance yourself from your teammate.

Did you miss the part where Bona then voted rdrivera and actually put him in the lead after my vote? Or the part where Maniac joined it later too? Doesn't seem like a very dead wagon to me. In fact, the excuse that it was a dead-wagon that coincidentally took the lead looks like a great excuse for explaining why you didn't go back to your teammate when the votes really mattered.

I'm not talking about what happened afterwards. I still don't understand how you discourage the Rivera wagon, tell me he's acting like he did as town and that you're not going to scumread him for that, and then jump on that wagon after a giant movement towards another wagon.

Because I decided I really didn't like the Bunny wagon, and didn't want to noob-kill fisch. You've literally just said how you think that town would have a preference about who they want to die rather than be totally ambivalent, only to then criticise me for... Having a preference. Some deeply circular logic going on there.

[kgray]

You could argue that this is a case where having two games of experience is worse than none, but last game disagrees with you on that. The vote was tied with <1 left and ghug sat there doing nothing.

Right, but that's why I said his movement could be him mimicking his town game. He was caught and killed fairly quickly last game so I imagine he'd put more effort into replicating his town game if he's scum again.

Why do you think not caring who dies (obviously restricted to the people on the chopping block) is scummy? If I think that the two I'm choosing between have similar likelihoods of being scum then I much prefer the info from either dying than ending in a tie.

If the leading wagons aren't scum's teammates, why would scum really care who dies? Maybe they have a slight preference based on what those people's reads are, or how good they generally are at solving, but at the end of the day if it's not a teammate then that's all scum really care about.

Townies, on the other hand, generally have some sort of preference, even if it's just gut or if it isn't strong. So if the wagons are TvT (like they were from your perspective if you're town) then ambivalence is generally scummy. You don't find it scummy that ghug didn't care who died, hence my questioning of your towniness.

I think the post you're quoting is about celaph not claiming (referencing me not claiming when I was tied for the lead last game, which happened because my teammate had claimed the role I had planned to claim).

As for my not caring which of the two went down, you have to remember that I was instrumental in putting both on the block in the first place. I was excited to see either die, and wanted to see where others fell.

Oh, I thought he was talking about you not moving your vote around near EOD in a TvT?

And you said that setting up the two wagons that you wanted on the block was part of your strategy as scum in M60. So that's not a very compelling reason for me to townread you :)