MAFIA 64 - The Z Files - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[TheMadMonarch]

We've been talking mechanics and picking roles...and they were nothing but correct with regards to the more than half their posts about damo's error.

The rest of their posts were joking around with Bob about lion and poultry, congratulating ghug on a limmerick, and saying Hi.

Alright, both fair points.

@Macca, got any reads so far?

I remember having some feelings earlier today.

I didn't like the Bunny-Ghug go-between. I do not think these two are on the same team (including TT).

I remember having some scummy thoughts about Bona earlier, but they have lessened as he responded well to the criticism I was reading.

I like kgray and damo.

Bozo seems weird, he isn't doing anything. I also don't like Vecna doing two posts and leaving, especially when one of those posts was "1".

I stand corrected. Vecna had 3 posts, but the other one isn't enough to warrant a change of opinion

[TheMadMonarch]

I need to place a vote before I sleep, so for no I will

##VOTE BunnyGo

Not a popular choice, I'm aware, but I do this based on my earlier Bunny-Ghug comment, and this is just the way I'm leaning on that right now. It may change later tonight.

[damo666]

The most significant thing to have happened so far (and by a wide marģin) is Bozo claiming to have discarded Mafia GF.

If he is telling the truth he probably either has a valuable town role, a super valuable alien role or he fancied SK. Almost certainly not a weaker Mafia role.

He could be lying and gambling that GF wasn't dealt but with a probability of only 26/68 this is an unlikely Bozo type gambit.

I think the most likely reason for Bozo to claim to have discarded Mafia GF is that he actually RETAINED Mafia GF.

##vote Bozo

[Maniac]

Discard claims:

Options are stating a specific role, town/not town, town/mafia/alien, or choosing not to answer.

Bob: not town
Bonatogether: Mafia Goon
bozo: Mafia GF
brainbomb: Mafia Goon
BunnyGo: not town
​celaph: Mafia Goon
damo: VT
DemonRHK:
Donny:
emc: town
Ezio:
ghug: Mafia Goon
Hamilton:
HR:
jasnah: Mafia Lover
kgray: chooses not to answer
lfischl: Alien
Macca:
Mania​c: commuter (I think I messed up)
rdrivera: chooses not to answer
Vecna:

[TheMadMonarch]

The most significant thing to have happened so far (and by a wide marģin) is Bozo claiming to have discarded Mafia GF.

If he is telling the truth he probably either has a valuable town role, a super valuable alien role or he fancied SK. Almost certainly not a weaker Mafia role.

He could be lying and gambling that GF wasn't dealt but with a probability of only 26/68 this is an unlikely Bozo type gambit.

I think the most likely reason for Bozo to claim to have discarded Mafia GF is that he actually RETAINED Mafia GF.

##vote Bozo

This is actually quite interesting, and it goes with his rather strange (at least to me) opening. I think I'll join you

##VOTE bozo

[TheMadMonarch]

That's it for me tonight. Best of luck with EOD!

[BobMcBob]

So, I'm going to work my way down the list of players in activity order and give my thoughts before rereading.
Bunny - I townlean bunny. Bunny has seemed okay so far, nothing has really stood out to me. By sheer activity he seems pretty helpful off recall, and is definitely good to keep around at least.

Brain - possibly my strongest townread, everything about brain suggests an emotionally invested townie so far. His causticity and clashes do not negate that and if anything help it.

Ghug - I find ghug very amusing at least. Ghug has seemed pretty loose and silly a lot of the game, but has also got annoyed very quickly at some things. I put him at null to slight scum, and out of all the big posters he's the one I trust least. That said, I don't really like his wagon.

Kgray - as I have probably made pretty clear, I like kgray. She has consistently had a very reasonable and townie viewpoint and from memory has been making helpful contributions. There's some weird meta stuff that makes her look a bit worse plus the fact that she's a known strong scum player, but I still put her pretty comfortably in my town for now.

Bona - this guy's view on voting is absolutely out the window insane, but he stuck to it so hard that I agree he's unlikely to be scum. Solid town from me.
Donny - somehow, despite making over 100 posts, I can barely remember anything he's said. I will go back and do a reread but right now I seem to remember him being pretty reasoned and helpful, so townlean I guess.

Now into the lower posters
Macca - completely disappeared for nearly 24 hours, but has a legit excuse. Play so far also seems fairly in line with what I've come to expect from them. Has been parroting a bit but nothing beyond what I'd expect and a bold vote on bunny. Pretty null so far.

Damo - really hasn't done much, and even avoided doing some maths earlier. Seems like maybe a bit off, null leaning scum.

Demon - I also don't remember anything I can attribute to this guy specifically. Null until reread.

Hamb - I find it hard to believe he made 31 posts. I only remember a few. They seemed slightly odd to me but I remember him to be a bit of an odd player normally. Null leaning scum.

Celaph - I feel like celaph made some good posts from memory, I got townie vibes.
Bozo - completely useless so far, much more limp than usual on D1. May be trying to stay under the radar, may be earnestly trying to gather data from his massclaim. Slight scumlean but an awful D1 kill.

Jasnah - hilarious and bold. Also slightly foolish and with some misconceptions about how the game works. Also an absolutely brilliant troll. I'm leaning town out of the boldness mostly.

Rdr - can barely remember what he's said so far, but hope he's having a nice vacation. Null.

Lfischl - has made a highly questionable vote on ghug but could be explained by being confused and not reading the setup. Still leaning scum slightly.

HR - I can't remember much other than there was an early interaction with ghug or someone that seemed pretty townie at the time.

Emc - needs to show up more. He even missed the limerick session. Very disappointing. Odd behaviour but seems pretty standard for him. Null but I don't like his absence.

Maniac - idk what maniac's brand is, I wouldn't expect it to be this. Very low activity, half of the posts were jokes, idk what to think. Slight scumlean and needs to show up more.

Vecna - null. I don't like the inactivity but he has a reason.

Ezio - null. Obviously.

Btw, I am fully aware that this list favours the active players significantly, as well as people who look helpful at a glance. I plan to go back and reread some people to get a better grasp on them. I think it is very likely that at least one scum, if not two, is hidden inside the active posters, all of which I townleaned or better. I am also aware that I have been harsh on low posters, but I think that's somewhat more reasonable.

[BunnyGo]

Huh. That's not what I expected you to say at all, I didn't think he seemed carefree and silly. I think he seems annoyed and uptight.

Interesting, I think I understand our difference of opinion. Last game he was butting heads with me and Eden day one, and this game with you and brain. I can see why you had an annoyed and uptight read of him now.

You don't think you and ghug were also butting heads this game?

From my POV at the time it just felt like an intellectual exercise in strategy. On reread I see the head butting.

[Vecna]

Bob: I like ghug. I dont like his wagon.

Vecna: Wtf, im the only person on Ghug

[Maniac]

The most significant thing to have happened so far (and by a wide marģin) is Bozo claiming to have discarded Mafia GF.

If he is telling the truth he probably either has a valuable town role, a super valuable alien role or he fancied SK. Almost certainly not a weaker Mafia role.

He could be lying and gambling that GF wasn't dealt but with a probability of only 26/68 this is an unlikely Bozo type gambit.

I think the most likely reason for Bozo to claim to have discarded Mafia GF is that he actually RETAINED Mafia GF.

##vote Bozo

This is actually quite interesting, and it goes with his rather strange (at least to me) opening. I think I'll join you

##VOTE bozo

@Damo - maybe bozo doesn’t have to gamble on the Mafia GF not being dealt. If he has a mafia role and know someone else has picked Mafia GF.

I’m heavily town reading Damo for not realising mafia bozo would know who his scum mates are.

[Maniac]

I should say though that voting bozo of the back of him discarding mafia GF is poor town play. If he has drawn a super value non-mafia card he will be NK soon enough. If he is still alive D3/D4 then he might make a good DK but not now.

[Vecna]

The most significant thing to have happened so far (and by a wide marģin) is Bozo claiming to have discarded Mafia GF.

If he is telling the truth he probably either has a valuable town role, a super valuable alien role or he fancied SK. Almost certainly not a weaker Mafia role.

He could be lying and gambling that GF wasn't dealt but with a probability of only 26/68 this is an unlikely Bozo type gambit.

I think the most likely reason for Bozo to claim to have discarded Mafia GF is that he actually RETAINED Mafia GF.

##vote Bozo

This almost reads like too much information. Like, applying scum-rolecard knowledge on a broadened scale.

How could damo deduce, based solely on his own rolecard, that this is how the options work?

[Vecna]

Town damo: Oh, I had two PR options in my role. I BET THAT MEANS THE ENTIRE GAME THAT HAS 1 PR OPTION MUST HAVE 2 OPTIONS

^ unlikely scenario

Scum Damo: Oh, ive been debating in scumchat with my hoodlums. We all had multiple strong options to choose, but we wanted scum obviously.

^ would result in him knowing that scum all had interesting choices, and making that post.

##vote Damo

nice scum-logic-slip bro

[BunnyGo]

A look at iso is not a lot there.

Right, so I went back through all his recent games. The recent town games had a lot of slips. And then needed it spelled out how they were even slips.

The scum games had not a lot. And something weird about hammering jamie d1 while he slept? It was weird and jokey.

I remember him making that hammer joke (wasn't in the game though I believe). I've talked to them during basically all the games they've played and as town they seem very legitimately confused (although I remember less about their town games than about how they respond as scum), and in scum games they often get called out for something that they thought was townie or wasn't remotely scum motivated and get very confused about it. I can't remember basically any of their posts (except for saying hi like 5 times) so I'm not sure what this is yet.

*they/them

[Maniac]

@bob - my modus operandi seems to be get DK early because I always look scummy, get fear NK if I evade a daykill, figure out the puzzle just before I get killed if I reach the mid game but fail to convince anyone. I never reach the end game. My stats are pretty good, my play is terrible.

[bozotheclown]

Discard claims:

Options are stating a specific role, town/not town, town/mafia/alien, or choosing not to answer.

Bob: not town
Bonatogether: Mafia Goon
bozo: Mafia GF
brainbomb: Mafia Goon
BunnyGo: not town
​celaph: Mafia Goon
damo: VT
DemonRHK: town
Donny: town
emc: town
Ezio:
ghug: Mafia Goon
Hamilton: chooses not to answer
HR:
jasnah: Mafia Lover
kgray: chooses not to answer
lfischl: Alien
Macca:
Mania​c:
rdrivera: chooses not to answer
Vecna:

[BunnyGo]

Yes and no.

It is 14.3% to 1 dp but not the lhs.

It is 325/2278

Thank you for letting me know that bozo's answer was inaccurate by .034(ish) of a percent, I am sure this information will come in handy.

I think damo was pointing out I made a mistake in what I wrote, it should be (26/68)*(25/67) , which is what I calculated to get 14.3%.

Based on this, the most likely number of players who did not have a town choice is 3.

It’s not an independent calculation. The number of players with no choice is dependent on the other players with no choice. I have no coffee in me and little sleep. But I believe this may actually matter.

[Vecna]

Youre a good rider maniac, and we love to carry you

[BunnyGo]

Caught up reading.

For now I like Bob and Bona. I kind of like emc. He's barely written anything but I think that given the opportunity he would pick a town role, and at risk of doing too much mechs there's a pretty high chance of drawing at least one town card.

Would like to hear from Macca before EOD. I guess it's a somewhat better wagon than ghug but I'm not in love with it either.

And your thoughts on lfsxhfl?

[BunnyGo]

Because you like to hide behind mechs for the entirety of D1 whenever you play a game? Use your gut, basically no information is coming out of this massclaim. You're not even pushing it in this game.

I like the bozo posts; they're providing lots of information clearly aggregated in one place. Regardless of whether he's town or not. People have been making reads from them or interactions generated by them as well.

Do you think it suggests he’s town or scum to do this? Or not alignment indicative (NAI)