MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[sheepsaysmeep]

See, I still think that Sheep is Mafia. There's something about the way that he speaks, and he hasn't done anything to counteract my previous arguments suggesting he is Mafia.

you fucking

havent read the part where i keep yelling about how having a townread doesnt mean im a mafia partner with someone

i could say the exact same about you and whoever you townread

[sheepsaysmeep]

I'd also like to know why anyone jumped onto the "Bancroft Bandwagon". No-one has given any points as to why they thought I was scum. Sheep, teacher? Teacher himself has admitted that he has no real points against me...

again if you really think this there's no way youve read anything recent

[sheepsaysmeep]

phil's read reasoning on me is also pretty shitty but ive been liking his other posting though

"vague"
"generally unhelpful"
"careless attitude"
"careless attitude is prolly scum"
"under no pressure"

like more than half the game scumreads btw none of those points are true

and those are all his points ftr

[teacher2]

So, I am going to try to post a pretty detailed analysis/wall post right before twilight, but Im actually going to be pulling a Bancroft and flying at EoN, so it may be a bit early. Before that, though, I wanted to share a couple thoughts now for the benefit of those analyzing the end-of-phase events, and for those with night activity.

I had thought that the end-of-phase events made me knowntown without abilities, because why would scum defend a VT, particularly with a concealed argument like that? But that is not necessarily correct, scum might well do something like that if all wagons were on VT, in order to gain that exact towncred (WIFOM).

So we need to apply Occam’s razor: What are the odds that all three wagons were town. From a purely neutral game theory perspective, it is 7/9*6/8*5/7=41%. From a non-target towny’s perspective, it is 6/8*5/7*4/6=36%. So for those playing at home, I am definitely not lock-town, but more likely than not.

One thing that is clear, if I am town, I don’t have powers. I think that makes me slightly less likely of a NK target, since I am not knowntown but am known not PR (pessimistic me still expects to die, however). Since our PR may well be a newb, I will provide my thoughts below for what they are worth. They should certainly be taken with the grain of salt that I could be scum, and that my read (Damo=PR or scum 100%) was dead wrong.

Doctor: Should (a) self-save if commonly townread almost 100% of the time (not 100% because Baylesian math); (b) save common townreads (me/DrCJC/Phil) or a potential fearkill (Sheep) some lower percentage of the time if you are potential mislynch target. Choosing between these are difficult, because as will be noted in my analysis post, Phil in particular and Dr/Sheep to a lesser extent look bad from the lynch.

Cop: Should scan (Phil/Worcej/XY/Yavuz). I think those are the most promising individuals who are also likely to survive the night and possibly past N2 as well. VITAL COP NOTE: If you get a guilty on anyone, don’t return it immediately. In fact, return an inno on someone else, so that we can see how the target plays for part of the phase unencumbered by the finger. Then, around 24 hours in, hard claim and state your guilty. At 5:2, a hard claim with a guilty basically locks town, even with a counterclaim for reasons. In short, I think all hypo results from everybody should be innos.

[phil_a_s]

Right, well, time for specific things about sheep I did not like

"y'all are so fancy with your readlists" - on its own, innocuous. Combined with a later post where sheep straight-up says he didn't read a post for being long? Discourages activity. Not scum-tell, but certainly pro-scum

Asking everyone to posts readlists with reasoning, proceeding to post, uh, two ordered lists with reasoning hidden throughout the post history - Doesn't even seem that mafia, mostly annoying really, but I wanted to mention it anyway.

Accuses damo666 early on of maintaining thread presence without doing scumhunting, entire register of scumhunting proceeds to be voting damo, apparently for voting DrCJG, picking out one comment from teacher2 that unfortunately led nowhere, and voting Bancroft, which I expand on below. Now, he scumreads yavu, right after yavu expresses suspicion of him.

coming back to a single vote on him (admittedly, a poorly justified vote) by Bancroft, and promptly voting Bancroft in a flurry of defensive messages. I'm not saying the vote is unjustified, but it still sure looks like a hell of an OMGUS.

To me, the most convincing defense of these actions (especially all the OMGUS) is that you are far too experienced to act this dumb as mafia. But then, why would you act like this as town?

[sheepsaysmeep]

scratch waht i said about me liking your other posting

your attempt to case me is trashh

[sheepsaysmeep]

dont leash power roles i'd even advise power role to ignore your advice because you have a high cahcne bof being mafia

[teacher2]

case me.

I recognize your playstyle and it is the hardest for me to read on other sites. I think you could easily be powerwolfing, but also town who wants to lower impendiments to get to lylo where you can shine.

I sincerely doubt a player like you forgets about EoD. Your absence caused me to suspect you, until I did the math in my last post, which makes the second option seem better.

FWIW, I dont know what to read into you and Yavuz. I hope Yavuz plays more than he said, because I could easily see that spat without follow up as scumteam distancing.

[phil_a_s]

Sorry about your shift key and all punctuation keys being broken, sheep. Enlighten me, why is my case 'trashh'. Specifically, how does it manage to retroactively change my earlier posts?

[worcej]

@everyone - work is tough today, so I will be spotty at best until EoN but will try to check in and respond to things. Overall though, my read of Damo was obviously wrong and I credit that to reading his 'newbness' as scum, which is also a noob mistake on my end. I'll get into that below.

@phil - To be honest, I have no defense/good response to your question because he could've been the PR and that would've been the worst. I went with the standard assumption that Damo was lurking D1, which seems to be a commonly flagged 'scum noob move' and followed a 'guide' to start this game. Guide is here: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... em_Lynched

To be fair, I am a noob and stuck with my initial read because it seemed like Damo was not properly responding to the questions asked of him (the deflecting comments I made) and he also seemed distant (the lurking comment above). This reveal of VT on Damo though resets a lot of my reads and once we hit D2, I'll have another massive readlist to comment on.

[teacher2]

Sheep - right now youre just spewing shade, @yavuz, @phil, @me (and you havent walked back Bancroft from yesterday either). As you've probably picked up, the meta here is a bit different than Ive seen at MU/MS/elsewhere. Casing and logic is more expected.

[phil_a_s]

worcej, thanks for the answer. Will you be posting a reads list?

Not a huge fan of teacher2 guiding the PR so specifically, but then again, newb game.

I would like people's reads on whether there was a scum in the D1 wagons (not based so much on what you already think of the wagonees, but on the wagons themselves). xy4 and Bancroft are, I suppose, exempt, though I would still like your perspective on the wagons.

[worcej]

@phil - I will, but will wait to D2 and make it based on how the NK (if it happens) ends up. I will also put some more serious thoughts into my reads based on these actions because the NK target will probably give us something to digest on scum intentions.

[phil_a_s]

I mean, I have to admit, you don't seem like the most probable of NKs, but even so, I think it's best to leave one just in case. It also provides an interesting snapshot of a person's views at a given point in time.

[teacher2]

For what its worth, last game and this one (other than today since I wont have connectivity) I drafted up a readslist and saved the draft, to click post at 557 so that it couldnt affect scum action but would be there if I died. Today Im posting early because of the flight.

Also, Phil, I think at least one scum was absolutely on the wagon, with the sole exception being a sheep-yavuz scumteam. This will be in my detailed post.

[xy4]

Time for a quick readlist. I won't go too in depth as we still have to see what happens with the scum kill and our hypo cop, but I'll attempt to show you how my opinions have changed since last time.

TOWN LEAN:

Sheep: I've moved him out of Town because of the current discussion going on with him, but I am still pretty sure he's Town. You are not as assertive or vitriolic as Sheep is currently if you've got something to lose, so to speak.

Teacher: Nothing to say here. He's talking well and discussing things solidly, and given me no reason to suspect him so far. I don't remember if I out more detail in my last readlist on him but you can check it out anyway.

Phil: I've certainly had a change of heart with Phil. He's come from being my vote to being a Town Lean in a day. He is asking pointed questions and has good reasoning for asking them, and good reasoning when responding too.

NULL:

Worcej: To me, he's sooner Town than Scum, but I fell like I haven't seen enough during this night to warrant a lean either way.

Yav: No idea really. We're going to have to see him action during D2 for me to really make a judgement. But what Teacher said about Yav I think I agree with. He could be attempting to hide by saying he's away. Don't know yet.

SCUM LEAN:

CJG: Sorry guys but I still do think he's a little scummy. You can check my previous posts for more info. He's less scummy to me than someone else though...

SCUM:

Bancroft: If it seemed like I was voting Damo over him to protect a fellow scum, you thought wrong. Bancroft in D1 seemed as though he just had no clue what was going on. Now, in N1, he's asking more questions (to Sheep specifically, in accordance with his D1 vote), but I see that happening possibly because of how close he was to a lynch in D1, or maybe after a coach advised him to do so.

[DrCJG]

@teacher2 -

@Dr - why did you jump to Damo instead of XY (just trying to piece together end of day)?

Several things went poorly there at EoD as he waited till the final minute to make a vote switch to tie things, at the end of a page such that in my refreshing I needed to switch between pages to try and figure out what had happened, and didn't make a claim. In retrospect I think his lack of a true claim should have made me think he was just VT cause scum would have certainly claimed there and a PR should have as well... but I acted instinctively...

I was on XY with the count:
Damo: 3
XY: 2
Bancroft: 2

I saw Damo switch from XY to Bancroft making it:
Damo: 3
Bancroft: 3
XY: 1

I assume you are asking why I jumped to Damo instead of "Bancroft" because jumping to Xy doesnt make sense.... and as I have said above, I think a switch to Bancroft may have made more sense... but I had Bancroft as less scummy than Damo going into the final minutes, I had even planned to switch to Damo prior to your theory reveal... I had a page with his vote up ready to submit and when I saw him tie it up without a claim I switched to him.

[xy4]

@CJG

This response sounds plausible. But I still have a quick question. If you had Damo down as scummier than Bancroft, why did you think it made more sense to have Bancroft lynched? If you had the power to decide the lynch in D1, which would you have chosen, knowing what you did just before the end of the phase?

[DrCJG]

I would like people's reads on whether there was a scum in the D1 wagons (not based so much on what you already think of the wagonees, but on the wagons themselves). xy4 and Bancroft are, I suppose, exempt, though I would still like your perspective on the wagons.

Are you defining the D1 wagons as Bancroft and Damo? In that case yes I think there was probably at least one scum between Worcej, xy4, phil, me, teacher, and sheep... it seems unlikely that two of Bancroft, Sheep, and Yav are the scum. And as i write it... I see why Teacher said only if Sheep and Yav are the scum team... so i think there was almost certainly at least one scum on the wagons.

I agree that Phil, Worcej, and DrCJG look far worse than the rest, but I think in actuality that may only really be true if Bancroft is scum. I found it a little scummy that Phil, Worcej, and Xy4 didn't move based on teacher's PR theory, but at least Phil and Worcej took pause.

I am going to spend some time this afternoon thinking through scum partner pairs.

Should be off and on for questions.

[DrCJG]

@CJG

This response sounds plausible. But I still have a quick question. If you had Damo down as scummier than Bancroft, why did you think it made more sense to have Bancroft lynched? If you had the power to decide the lynch in D1, which would you have chosen, knowing what you did just before the end of the phase?

As I had said earlier in D1, I found Bancrofts mistakes to seem more new player than scum as compared to Damo...

But in retrospect if I had time to consider Damo's final remarks... I think a scum player would ABSOLUTELY have claimed PR in that situation, so the fact that he said something else should have made me vote Bancroft over Damo, but perhaps I am WIFOMing a past decision.