MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Fluminator]

Even if it was best for the cop to claim today, it would be best to wait until EOD if it's to protect or kill someone, and if it's nothing urgent it would be best to wait until right before EON is done.

[Chaqa]

There's 13 players left.

Two PRs can claim. Leaves 11 unclears.

Even worst case, I assume cop can clear or guilt 2 players. Leaves 9.

We flip an unclear today, cop gets a guaranteed scan on another.

IDK, I think this game is pretty solvable with claims, but it can wait another day just fine. I'm just concerned the cop gets ganked tonight without posting scans.

If cop has a guilty on someone who is not clear top wagon they will surely reveal before EOD.

If cop has an inno on someone who is in danger of DK they will surely reveal before EOD.

In neither case they will surely reveal at EON (unless they have had a remarkably unlucky run of scans of course).

I think we should relax regarding cop reveal.

My concern is the cop or one of his clears getting shot tonight.

What if the cop claims, but the doctor doesn't, and the cop tells us who to DK based on his scans without revealing them, and the doctor can protect him and stay hidden?

[Fluminator]

Chaqa, PE, stop it. lol
You're making no sense Chaqa. If the cop claims, then it's 100% chance that he or one of his clears get shot tonight.

Our best case scenario (outside of two guilty scans which obviously hasn't happened) is 4 townclears still alive. Unless the cop has been specifically picking players unlikely to die for this instance this is very unlikely but even in the best case scenario, him clearing 4 people puts us at 5 clears, maybe 6 if the doc is one of them. It's great but it's still not auto in a group of 13. The doc could then save the cop and if cop then gets another town it becomes auto, but this hinges on the doc not being one of the scanned and cop picking town.
Like it's a really good position for town, but even the best case scenario allows potential wiggle room for scum.
And it's much more likely we get 2/3 clears instead of 4 in which case there's plenty wiggle room for scum.

It's really not impossible one of the remaining scum is a huge deep threat playing very well, so if we have the opportunity to get an auto we 100% take it instead of a short term adrenaline rush at getting info now no matter how fun it seems. I'm again getting paranoid at Eden desperately trying to get the cop to out because one of the best parts of this is scum don't know if one of them is a dead man walking or if the person they're trying to miskill is an untouchable. The suspense of not knowing has got to be totally draining to mafia.

[damo666]

There's 13 players left.

Two PRs can claim. Leaves 11 unclears.

Even worst case, I assume cop can clear or guilt 2 players. Leaves 9.

We flip an unclear today, cop gets a guaranteed scan on another.

IDK, I think this game is pretty solvable with claims, but it can wait another day just fine. I'm just concerned the cop gets ganked tonight without posting scans.

If cop has a guilty on someone who is not clear top wagon they will surely reveal before EOD.

If cop has an inno on someone who is in danger of DK they will surely reveal before EOD.

In neither case they will surely reveal at EON (unless they have had a remarkably unlucky run of scans of course).

I think we should relax regarding cop reveal.

My concern is the cop or one of his clears getting shot tonight.

What if the cop claims, but the doctor doesn't, and the cop tells us who to DK based on his scans without revealing them, and the doctor can protect him and stay hidden?

I trust the cop to reveal when necessary. I don't see the point of claim and not doing a complete reveal. I do not think the doc should claim unless under DK pressure.

Also, a cop inno may be on the doc which makes your maths not so favourable.

[Chaqa]

Revised plan:

Cop claims today. Directs us on who to kill today.

Overnight, doctor protects cop. Likely mafia shoot the cop. Cop posts his scans at EoN just in case doctor doesn't or can't protect him. Tomorrow, cop directs us again on who to kill.

This process should net us several clears, get two or three really solid daykills to find scum, and leaves the Doctor hidden to try to make saves post-Cop death.

[damo666]

@Flum

consider the cost of cop dying having revealed zilch

[Chaqa]

If we DO plan on letting cop stay hidden, we should decide and solidify our primary wagon early so the cop has time to steer us clear if we're on the wrong trial.

[aarodactyl]

Some math:
Notation is #Town(#TownClear) - #Scum

Currently we sit at 11(0) - 2

PRs claim. Then we're at 11(2) - 2
Cop gives us info. Let's assume no guilty scans, but 2 inno scans (seems reasonable to me), puts us at 11(4) - 2

So we have 4 clears and a small list of 9 to DK going forward. We choose one (the scummiest of the non-ghug voters, likely) and flip them today, then cop scans someone.

We lose the Doc as he's protecting the Cop, but we gain another clear. Then we're either at 9(4) - 2 if we got it wrong today. Flip an unclear, lose the cop overnight.

That puts us to 7(3) - 2. Flip an unclear, next day we're at 5(2) - 2.

Same deal. 3(1) - 2. KYLO.

So... maybe holding is better, but I really think this gives us an opportunity to blow this wide open.

I would caution the cop from following this logic. This is another big problem with this. Even if you do the calculations and it seems legit, make sure you take into account that it's possible that one of your innos is the doctor.

[Fluminator]

@Flum

consider the cost of cop dying having revealed zilch

You're basically saying "consider the cop being incompetent"
I think we're safe.

[Chaqa]

@Flum

consider the cost of cop dying having revealed zilch

This seems REALLY unlikely.

[Fluminator]

Also we shouldn't kill Bona today.

[damo666]

Also we shouldn't kill Bona today.

Thank you cop.

[Fluminator]

Meta shift lets go

[damo666]

If we DO plan on letting cop stay hidden, we should decide and solidify our primary wagon early so the cop has time to steer us clear if we're on the wrong trial.

it's in the cop's own gift

[damo666]

Meta shift lets go

or not

[President Eden]

##VOTE bozotheclown

[President Eden]

the bot is just straight up not havin a good time.

bozotheclown (4): Chaqa, Fluminator, aarodactyl, Eden
Bonatogether (3): Hellenic Riot, e.m.c^42, worcej
celaph (3): damo666, bozotheclown, Bonatogether
Not Voting or Withdrawn Vote (3): Donny Dude, Jamiet99uk, celaph

[Chaqa]

I say we try to consolidate on a wagon by 4 hours from EoD.

Cop has to claim and steer us away by 2 hours from EoD.

Any claims coming in the last hour are fake and will be summarily executed.

[aarodactyl]

I say we try to consolidate on a wagon by 4 hours from EoD.

Cop has to claim and steer us away by 2 hours from EoD.

Any claims coming in the last hour are fake and will be summarily executed.

Is this just a ploy to make it so people can't damo?

[Chaqa]

I say we try to consolidate on a wagon by 4 hours from EoD.

Cop has to claim and steer us away by 2 hours from EoD.

Any claims coming in the last hour are fake and will be summarily executed.

Is this just a ploy to make it so people can't damo?

No, just trying to give some structure to things so that we don't accidentally mis-kill a PR or an inno scan.