MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

##Vote Bozo

I'll let everyone ignore me for a day or two, but pretty sure both remaining scum are within Bozo, Flum, HR, celaph. MAYBE Eden or Donny

[Hellenic Riot]

Addressing your points:

Paragraphs 1 and 2: This establishes that any bussing that may have happened was extremely poorly done, if there was any. This doesn't implicate me.

Paragraph 3: Any bus of brain wouldn't get anyone any credit because, like you said, brain gave up. This doesn't show anything.

Paragraph 4: So I messed it up a couple times. Sue me. Can you show any flaws in the actual theory?

Paragraphs 5 and 6: Again, I don't see how this shows that I'm scum. All actions that day line up with my stated beliefs in competitive wagons.

Summation Paragraph:
A lot of this is the same points, but the last accusation, that I've been willing to vote people who aren't him or worcej, I don't view as majorly scum indicative, since I'm not going to only do what my theory indicates. I have other thoughs.

It was a case dismantling PE's reasons for townreading you, not a case explaining scum motivations (of which I've made multiple already - Including the VCA, and even going back to D2).

However, to respond in turn here

1/2) As above, it's a reason why you get no towncred, not a reason why you're scum

3) See above, except this was the only real 'bus' you would have done.

4) What do you mean, flaws in the theory? The theory is utter garbage.

Automatically assuming that because something happened one day it would happen again the next despite the fact that the people involved were entirely different is ridiculous in itself, but yours doesn't even stack up beyond that. The people who joined my wagon D1 were EMC (town by your theory), brainbomb (scum), Jamie (town by your theory), rdrivera (town), BunnyGo (town), and finally Chaqa (town by your theory). So the only scum on it was brain in your world.

D2, we have the people on the brain wagon: President Eden (town by your theory), ghug (scum who was forced to bus), damo666 (town by your theory), and BunnyGo (town confirmed). The only scum being ghug in your world.

There is literally *ZERO* crossover between the two wagons - Except for BunnyGo, who we know full well was town. So any idea at all that the scum were co-ordinating starting a third wagon to save a scum member not only makes no sense because in your world why are they not just co-ordinating to kill you D2 seeing as you know you're town - And frankly, this is a great question in general... But there was also a total failure to have any actual scum doing said imaginary co-ordination. Your theory therefore makes no sense... At all.

----

As for 5 & 6) Showing you defending Hamilton is quite self-explanatory for why there's a potential scum motivation for it. And you forgetting/have no interest in pursuing your own theory also has plenty scum motivation... Not least because I've just shown that your 'grand theory' stands up with all the resilience of a chocolate teapot.

[Hellenic Riot]

Oh I forgot to mention the other gigantic chasm in your theory: Why on earth are the scum co-ordinating to save a teammate by starting a wagon on another teammate, instead of on a townie?

I've seen plastic bags with stronger foundations than that theory.

[Donny Dude]

Hr ripping into bona's theory makes me believe they are not on the same scumteam, and I think hr has brought up some good points on bona's theory.

[President Eden]

Hr ripping into bona's theory makes me believe they are not on the same scumteam, and I think hr has brought up some good points on bona's theory.

HR wouldn’t bulldoze his own team the last two days to try to win at final 3. He knows he would be copscanned if he didn’t die by then and he can’t be The Godfather.

##VOTE Bonatogether

Sort of placeholder but I also want to give HR his due

[Donny Dude]

I am only willing to vote for the following today:

celaph HR Flum Bozo Donny [that order]

I don't think I'm a big fan of any of the first 3 people on this list. I'm conf town (to myself).

I think HR is likely town. I liked his handling of the HB cop situation N2. I also think his pushes on HB yesterday and how HB initially wanted to push HR look good for him. And I think his push on Bona, while I'm not sure if it's correct, comes from a really towny place.

I haven't seen a particularly compelling argument for scum flum besides the ghug defense. Besides that, I think Durga's D1 and Flum's D2 looked pretty towny. Flum's activity has fallen off as of late so maybe the pressure would be well placed there, but I'm not convinced he is a good kill.

Celaph, who do you believe are the two remaining scum?

[bozotheclown]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

As I pointed out earlier, Bonatogether theory is a combination of things suggested by Donny, BunnyGo, and aarodactyl.

My theory about worcej and HR or the case against me?

I was talking about your theories involving worcej and HR and worcej and Hamilton:

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

Worcej? You just lost me...

Think about it a bit more.

Actually, I'm not you, so I'll be explicit.

It seems like you're presenting an argument that HB is scum. Part of this argument seems to be based on HB trying to pull votes off ghug near EOD2. You quoted a piece showing HB doing the same thing to pull people off of ND EOD1. That would suggest worcej is scum.

[Bonatogether]

As I pointed out earlier, Bonatogether theory is a combination of things suggested by Donny, BunnyGo, and aarodactyl.

My theory about worcej and HR or the case against me?

I was talking about your theories involving worcej and HR and worcej and Hamilton:

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

Think about it a bit more.

Actually, I'm not you, so I'll be explicit.

It seems like you're presenting an argument that HB is scum. Part of this argument seems to be based on HB trying to pull votes off ghug near EOD2. You quoted a piece showing HB doing the same thing to pull people off of ND EOD1. That would suggest worcej is scum.

Those were all after/same day I came up with my theory

[worcej]

I'm very interested in the worcej take about Bona "not being scum thanks to VCA", because I really don't see how that's the case.

If one looks at EoD2, when there were two confirmed scum wagons (ghug & brainbomb), it's notable that Hamilton Brian was present and yet after initially trying to start a Bunny wagon he then tried to start a worcej wagon, then voted ghug to put him into the lead ahead of Bona (6-5) when the brain wagon was ratchetting up, and then finally voted brain after he'd claimed. At no point did HB vote Bonatogether there.

Likewise ghug had also been pushing for a worcej wagon and only voted Bona when it was a straight fight between them (before leaving for brainbomb and then returning after the claim). Brainbomb also initially put Bona in the lead about an hour prior to EoD before immediately switching back to ghug, and then only rejoined Bona when ghug had overtaken him (thus putting Bona back into the lead). And Bona himself only voted ghug and not brainbomb when he turned up at the end, when bb was the stronger scum PR. And of course, when you look at yesterday Bona was one of the people who "let off" HB after his question dodging and joined the emc wagon and then also joined the attempt to start a wagon on me.

Like, sure, there's a very reasonable argument that Bona probably isn't scum because the chances of 3 mafia being up for the daykill are very small. But the VCA doesn't make Bona look town - The VCA is downright atrocious for him.

I didn't go as deep as the exact timing of votes when I looked at the total picture, but I would find it odd that they would choose to have 3/5 scum players in the line of fire. Looking much closer, this is the bussing moves I see:

1. 43:08, brain, Hel➙ghu. 4 ghu, 2 wor, 1 Hel, 1 ce - Nothing really major, first known scum on scum vote with plenty of time to move.
2. 30:02, ghug, wor➙bra. 3 ghu, 3 Vec, 1 Hel, 1 bra - Ghug reciprocates, still ghug is relatively threatened but plenty of time to move.
3. 24:07, ghug, bra➙aar. 4 ghu, 3 Hel, 2 aar, 1 cel - Now ghug is most likely trying to get more 'umph' behind a different wagon, now that he is threatened.
4. 07:27, brain, rdr➙ghu. 5 ghu, 4 wor, 3 boz, 2 Bon - This one is weird, Brain pushes ghug up to 5 when he could've optioned to me instead. HB was on me at this point and enough dialogue was happening to make a flip of me plausible, but he options to ghug for now...
5. 04:16, ghug, Cha➙bra. 4 ghu, 3 e.m, 3 wor, 2 boz - again, back to brain after going to Chaqa in an attempt to get his wagon going. Still plenty of town off-wagons available, but pushes to try to get a BB wagon started.
6. 03:50, brain, ghu➙Ham. 3 ghu, 3 e.m, 2 Ham, 2 wor - Hamilton is at two only because he is self voting and then BB jumps on this. Calls him over-dramatic and that he doesn't need to act how people are telling him to (probably coaching in open because he can)
7. 00:48, brain, Bon➙ghu. 4 Bon, 4 e.m, 3 ghu, 2 Jam - Interesting that brain is again bussing ghug a little bit here. He detracts away from bona taking off, but why make ghug a still viable option...
8. 00:18, ghug, wor➙Bon. 5 ghu, 5 Bon, 3 e.m, 2 Jam - This move right here makes me think bona is town more than anything else. ghug could've optioned to EMC, but didn't and Bona at this point has no confirmed scum on him yet. I don't see ghug wanting to bus his own teammate this early.
9. 00:14, ghug, Bon➙bra. 5 ghu, 4 Bon, 3 e.m, 2 bra - This strikes me as a frustration bus more than anything. Brain is currently on ghug and not moved yet.
10. 00:09, brain, ghu➙Bon. 5 Bon, 4 ghu, 3 bra, 2 Jam - Now pressure is off ghug, very close to EOD, but it doesn't last.
11. 00:08, Bon, Unv➙ghu. 5 Bon, 5 ghu, 4 bra, 2 Jam - So, assuming bona is scum and trying to protect the best PR they have, this vote is absolutely terrible. I struggle to see a goon!Bona making the move, putting ghug back up when he is the team's RB'er, which is way more important than himself.
12. 00:06, Hamilton, wor➙ghu. 6 ghu, 5 Bon, 4 bra, 2 Jam - Poor hamilton... this was just bad and once again put ghug in the line of fire...
13. 00:06, ghug, bra➙Bon. 6 Bon, 6 ghu, 3 bra, 2 Jam - Ties, ghug trying to save himself here which makes sense. Bona is the closest option, but if he was scum too then this would be the worst option unless the 5th scum is here already.
14. 00:03, Hamilton, ghu➙bra. 7 Bon, 7 ghu, 2 Jam, 1 e.m - This is right @ EOD and was probably an attempt at a tie, which would be a hail-mary type play, which Vecna correctly then prevented and we got ghug in the end.

I do see the possibility that they honestly initially attempted to bus Bona, which I would believe scum!brain would do, but then to have a majority of town players jump at the ghug and brain wagons as they formed was the nasty shock they didn't expect, which led to HB's panic movement at the end. This whole theory sounds kinda wishy-washy but there is one logical route I see here...

If we are to believe Bona is scum, then the 5th scum member was most likely also on Bona near EOD2. This would give the scum team no other real option for pushing a wagon or consolidating without too much movement onto a town, which would leave that person to being either HR, Flurga, or bozo.

So, I am not caught up on any claims as of posting this, or really aware of the VC at this posting, but if Bona flips as scum, then we've got the most likely 5th scum in the three I named above. This is worth making the flip of Bona happen.

##vote Bona

[celaph]

11. 00:08, Bon, Unv➙ghu. 5 Bon, 5 ghu, 4 bra, 2 Jam - So, assuming bona is scum and trying to protect the best PR they have, this vote is absolutely terrible. I struggle to see a goon!Bona making the move, putting ghug back up when he is the team's RB'er, which is way more important than himself.

Processing the rest of your message, but had a question here. Are you saying that you think goon Bona chooses to not vote instead of voting for Brain/ghug? I feel like the lack of self pres voting would look awful for them.

[worcej]

And to be clear - I am leaning towards Bona is town. I think the VCA shows him to be the scapecoat for the scum and if I am wrong, which is normally the case, and bona is scum, then the last scum must be one of bozo, HR, and Flurga.

[celaph]

If we are to believe Bona is scum, then the 5th scum member was most likely also on Bona near EOD2. This would give the scum team no other real option for pushing a wagon or consolidating without too much movement onto a town, which would leave that person to being either HR, Flurga, or bozo.

I think in all fairness I should be on that final list too. I was open about the fact that I wouldn't be active and so wouldn't have been able to contribute in the further pushing of the Bona wagon.

[worcej]

11. 00:08, Bon, Unv➙ghu. 5 Bon, 5 ghu, 4 bra, 2 Jam - So, assuming bona is scum and trying to protect the best PR they have, this vote is absolutely terrible. I struggle to see a goon!Bona making the move, putting ghug back up when he is the team's RB'er, which is way more important than himself.

Processing the rest of your message, but had a question here. Are you saying that you think goon Bona chooses to not vote instead of voting for Brain/ghug? I feel like the lack of self pres voting would look awful for them.

No, he went from Unvote to ghug.

I think if Bona is scum, which means he's a goon, then him voting for either of these two wagons was foolish. I would've tried to move to a non-scum like Jamie (assumed not scum in this case) instead of piling onto my RB'er.

Sure, it might've failed, but my own death is much better than forcing the RB or GF from being axed in that case.

[celaph]

I'm keeping a list of tierlists and the day posted and putting in scum/town when revealed.

@bona any conclusions that you've drawn from this? Feel free to post what you have already and then do further analysis in the thread if necessary.

[worcej]

If we are to believe Bona is scum, then the 5th scum member was most likely also on Bona near EOD2. This would give the scum team no other real option for pushing a wagon or consolidating without too much movement onto a town, which would leave that person to being either HR, Flurga, or bozo.

I think in all fairness I should be on that final list too. I was open about the fact that I wouldn't be active and so wouldn't have been able to contribute in the further pushing of the Bona wagon.

Saying you won't be active isn't always totally true, so sure you can try to include yourself, but I looked at it from the perspective of assuming that the 5th scum was already stuck on Bona, which would justify brain and ghug putting their votes there to try and stop ghug from being flipped.

[celaph]

Celaph, who do you believe are the two remaining scum?

Ignoring Bona, I think I would be looking at Bozo, EMC, and you (Donny) with outside looks at Damo and Chaqa. I've got classes for the next 4 hours so I'll probably get around to posting reasons later tonight.

Regarding Bona, my gut reaction is town, but I'm having a hard time justifying that read to myself in a solid way. I certainly don't hate the wagon and I like the way that it's being led.

[Hellenic Riot]

The biggest issue I see with your post there worcej is that your post "which makes you think Bona is town more than anything else"... Is a vote that was instantly followed by Hamilton Brian, a member of the scum. Oh, and also that you think the RB'er is more important than the GF, which is... Not true.

You seem to be making assertions about what the scum would do that do not fit with the confirmed reality that we have thanks to who we already flipped. Essentially it boils down to you thinking Bona wouldn't do anything at all as scum when the only two other wagons are also scum, which seems pretty unlikely - But I've already pointed out that he made the absolute bare minimum of effort to actually save himself.

As for your final conclusion: You overlook the fact that HB *could* have tied the vote at the end by voting Bona. He did not. He let ghug die. Which if the brain vote was already an attempt to tie seems really bizarre. If not, it suggests that the scum had realised one of them would die and that letting ghug die might be the best way to make Bona/Brain look good (backfired hugely in Brain's case, but it did get pressure off Bona for quite a while).

As for the final conclusion... I don't really see that either. Maybe you're right and the last scum was voting Bona, but even if you are I don't see how you can rule PE out from that. And as neither celaph nor emc (nor Donny, but I have other reasons to townread him) were on relevant wagons, I don't see how they can be either. But when we know that there was bussing going on (reluctant or not, HB/Brain/ghug repeatedly voted each other at various times) then I'm not sure how we can rule out that more bussing went on at the end.

[Hellenic Riot]

@worcej

Do you not think that it's weird that it took the scum that we know of so long to actually vote Bona, that none of them made an active case to try and get him killed, and that the other scum member not only refused to vote him but refused the chance to tie it between ghug and Bona despite having apparently tried to tie it once already? And if Bona is town, why was HB trying to tie instead of just voting Bona?

[Jamiet99uk]

@worcej

Do you not think that it's weird that it took the scum that we know of so long to actually vote Bona, that none of them made an active case to try and get him killed, and that the other scum member not only refused to vote him but refused the chance to tie it between ghug and Bona despite having apparently tried to tie it once already? And if Bona is town, why was HB trying to tie instead of just voting Bona?

Worcej is voting for Bona, though, right?
So surely if you are right, we flip scum, and if Worcej is right, we learn something. No?

[Hellenic Riot]

@worcej

Do you not think that it's weird that it took the scum that we know of so long to actually vote Bona, that none of them made an active case to try and get him killed, and that the other scum member not only refused to vote him but refused the chance to tie it between ghug and Bona despite having apparently tried to tie it once already? And if Bona is town, why was HB trying to tie instead of just voting Bona?

Worcej is voting for Bona, though, right?
So surely if you are right, we flip scum, and if Worcej is right, we learn something. No?

Wut?

Am I unreasonably questioning him here or something?