MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Donny Dude]

I misread the bot so the last ten minutes and you got yelled at by the gm to vote according to you.

[Bonatogether]

But yes, the more I look at that VCA, the more damning it looks. How on earth has worcej taken the total opposite conclusion? You could barely come up with a VCA that looks *worse* than Bona's even if you were deliberately trying to...

Three confirmed scum all either reticent or outright avoiding voting for him, guy stays off both counterwagons for as long as possible and then only votes the weaker scum PR right at the end, and the guy joined both of the only two remotely plausible counterwagons to scum on D4 to boot.

I wasn't there for most of EoD 2 because I was playing eu4

You were there for the last 20 minutes or so based off bot.

Where does it show this? I was messaging at 6 hours before EoD talking with Donny about voting for ties, and then nothing until 8 minutes before EoD.

[Bonatogether]

I misread the bot so the last ten minutes and you got yelled at by the gm to vote according to you.

Yeah. I stop playing eu4, tom messages me on discord to have a valid vote, and so I pop over to see what's going on.

[Donny Dude]

I wasn't there for most of EoD 2 because I was playing eu4

You were there for the last 20 minutes or so based off bot.

Where does it show this? I was messaging at 6 hours before EoD talking with Donny about voting for ties, and then nothing until 8 minutes before EoD.

Dude you just crossposted what I realized.

[Bonatogether]

You were there for the last 20 minutes or so based off bot.

Where does it show this? I was messaging at 6 hours before EoD talking with Donny about voting for ties, and then nothing until 8 minutes before EoD.

Dude you just crossposted what I realized.

Yeah, I see that now

[Donny Dude]

I misread the bot so the last ten minutes and you got yelled at by the gm to vote according to you.

Yeah. I stop playing eu4, tom messages me on discord to have a valid vote, and so I pop over to see what's going on.

K, I believe you there and how was that game going for you at the time?

[Bonatogether]

I misread the bot so the last ten minutes and you got yelled at by the gm to vote according to you.

Yeah. I stop playing eu4, tom messages me on discord to have a valid vote, and so I pop over to see what's going on.

K, I believe you there and how was that game going for you at the time?

pretty solid. I'm still figuring stuff out but a friend was helping me out.

[Donny Dude]

Yeah. I stop playing eu4, tom messages me on discord to have a valid vote, and so I pop over to see what's going on.

K, I believe you there and how was that game going for you at the time?

pretty solid. I'm still figuring stuff out but a friend was helping me out.

bona
Why on d4 did you break a tie on hb and emc on d4 when your philosophy has been that tied wagons are good?

[Bonatogether]

K, I believe you there and how was that game going for you at the time?

pretty solid. I'm still figuring stuff out but a friend was helping me out.

bona
Why on d4 did you break a tie on hb and emc on d4 when your philosophy has been that tied wagons are good?

My philosophy is that seeing who breaks tied wagons is good.

[Donny Dude]

pretty solid. I'm still figuring stuff out but a friend was helping me out.

bona
Why on d4 did you break a tie on hb and emc on d4 when your philosophy has been that tied wagons are good?

My philosophy is that seeing who breaks tied wagons is good.

Well, yes but my point was at the time you wanted emc in the lead.
What about hb did you believe was less scummier than emc?
And how do you currently read bunny?

[President Eden]

You know, there's no real reason we couldn't have had 3 mafia on the block at EOD2.

[BunnyGo]

You know, there's no real reason we couldn't have had 3 mafia on the block at EOD2.

Yes. I made a big case explaining Ghugs behavior that way.

[President Eden]

I'm not saying we did, but consider our three wagons.

- A large part of the push on ghug was tenacious logically. No offense to Jamie et al but it's pretty obvious that ghug didn't slip about flavor names that none of us got. We kinda got lucky on that one. There were other good reasons to vote for him (namely his stilted push on ND/worcej), but a lot of town voted correctly for logically flawed reasons.

- The brainbomb catch was basically a mafia own goal after some pressure. I maintain I would never be involved in that push as mafia, but most of that was mafia error.

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

It's definitely rare for town to have 3 mafia on the block, but when one push is based on shaky reasoning and a second push is mostly the mafia's own fault, is it really that unreasonable that we had 3 up? Once you grant that we got lucky to get 2 of them up, correctly having a 3rd up isn't that crazy.

[Bonatogether]

bona
Why on d4 did you break a tie on hb and emc on d4 when your philosophy has been that tied wagons are good?

My philosophy is that seeing who breaks tied wagons is good.

Well, yes but my point was at the time you wanted emc in the lead.
What about hb did you believe was less scummier than emc?
And how do you currently read bunny?

It was a joke vote.

He really wants to scumread me but then turned around and claimed something was a townslip when it is not (the whole tell me this in the qt thing), so I'm scumleaning on him.

[Bonatogether]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

[BunnyGo]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

2) chaqa, Damo, bunny

[celaph]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

1) I don't think that people expect identical play. How would that even happen with different variables? That said, I think it's not unreasonable to expect similar lines of thought and justification for your actions. The premise is that you should be thinking about the game in similar ways.

2) PE's argument for having 3 scum wagons on D2 is not that town was particularly skilled, but mostly through a combination of bad luck and bad play on the part of the scum. BB obviously didn't have to die and Jamie's case on ghug had a number of errors.

3) Why not?

4) I think this is one of the better points in favor of town Bona. The other imo is your behavior N2 in acting like you caught BB.

[Hellenic Riot]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

1) I don't think that people expect identical play. How would that even happen with different variables? That said, I think it's not unreasonable to expect similar lines of thought and justification for your actions. The premise is that you should be thinking about the game in similar ways.

2) PE's argument for having 3 scum wagons on D2 is not that town was particularly skilled, but mostly through a combination of bad luck and bad play on the part of the scum. BB obviously didn't have to die and Jamie's case on ghug had a number of errors.

3) Why not?

4) I think this is one of the better points in favor of town Bona. The other imo is your behavior N2 in acting like you caught BB.

I will point out in the case of four that when I initially made the post that that EoD had made no sense whatsoever unless there were multiple scum wagons, Bona came in very quickly to disagree. It was only after I then said that brainbomb made much more sense that Bona suddenly seemed latched onto that and went after brain.

[President Eden]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

1) It doesn't require the exact same behavior. Mafia is a game of heuristics and probability, even if we speak about it in a very qualitative way. If you had a clear tendency to behave a certain way as town in a game that recently finished, and you're departing from that tendency in the very next game, it's reasonable to think you might be mafia because of it.
I was willing to vote you day 2 because of it, in the end. I did want something better, though, which is why I went shopping around for other wagons throughout EOD2, and why I haven't bothered revisiting it until now, and why I probably wouldn't have revisited it at all but for HR's comments about VCA. It wasn't ironclad and it wouldn't even be the main reason to vote you out now, but it didn't demand that you behave the exact same way every game to be relevant, either.

2) Well, that town didn't have me.
Oh c'mon, put the tomatoes away, I'm kidding.
It is a different town with different circumstances. Town had teacon run up on day 1 and only narrowly missed that, and town caught damo, so it's not like that town was incompetent. It just struggled to deal with a very good closer on the mafia side. Catching a mafia by day 2 isn't that remarkable a feat. Catching three would be, but if we're honest with ourselves we got fairly lucky to get to that point.

3) Sure we can. In fact, at this stage, that's often how you catch the rest of them. It's why people can't get my name out of their suspects list no matter how many hours I sink into trying to solve this thing. I missed on ghug day 2 and was openly defending him near the end of it.
Your best bet would be to apply the same VCA techniques and find a better answer.

4) I tend to agree. So answer me this - why do you apply this argument here but still find reasons to suspect me elsewhere? If anything you should be simping for me the hardest of everybody, because the only way my actions make sense at EOD2 as mafia is if we're the last two and I was hoping to shake things up and somehow tie the vote or end up on a random other wagon (damo maybe, since I was shilling that before brainbomb?). But if I'm mafia you basically have to be the other one, EOD2 makes no sense otherwise.

[BunnyGo]

I’m gonna Damo tonight