MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

If there isn't an innocent scan on EMC revealed tomorrow, I think he is the next wagon. Still pretty sure he's scum.

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

[celaph]

I think I've narrowed it down to 6 possible scumpairs.

Sharing before EON would provide a chance to scan most informative player.

There’s also something to be said for scanning players who could surprise us.

One other thing I just thought of: the European players may be scum and disadvantage at EOD/EON. Yes I posted my hyposcan at 2 hours to go. But that was 11 PM and they may not have been here to help HB

Jamie, HR and I were all on at EOD. Are there other players in a similar timezone?

The scumpairs are 2 from celaph, Flum, HR and EMC.

How confident are you that there are two scum between the four of us? I think EMC is likely the best kill tomorrow, but I'm not sold on Flum or HR.

[celaph]

The problem with this theory is that every living European player bar Jamie (who went to sleep 20 minutes before EoN and therefore it's pretty hard to argue *could not* have helped out), was around at the EoN and the first hour after it.

Ok then. I wasn’t around. And don’t know who the European players are.

As far as I am aware it's only me, Damo, and Jamie left. Flum is Canadian. I'm not sure about Bona and Celaph but their average posting hours suggest American timezones too. The other Europeans (Maniac & Vecna) are dead.

My given location is correct so yes, American time zones.

[damo666]

Sharing before EON would provide a chance to scan most informative player.

There’s also something to be said for scanning players who could surprise us.

One other thing I just thought of: the European players may be scum and disadvantage at EOD/EON. Yes I posted my hyposcan at 2 hours to go. But that was 11 PM and they may not have been here to help HB

Jamie, HR and I were all on at EOD. Are there other players in a similar timezone?

The scumpairs are 2 from celaph, Flum, HR and EMC.

How confident are you that there are two scum between the four of us? I think EMC is likely the best kill tomorrow, but I'm not sold on Flum or HR.

>50%
<100%

[BunnyGo]

Also my vote on Brian was literally deciding - it was the 8th vote out of 15.

There is no universe where I am mafia here

That's a silly statement.

agreed

I agree. He’s still town.

[BunnyGo]

If there isn't an innocent scan on EMC revealed tomorrow, I think he is the next wagon. Still pretty sure he's scum.

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

Seriously? You’re preemptively declaring an OMGUS vote against someone we’ve all but mechanically cleared?

[BunnyGo]

Hi ghug

[President Eden]

If there isn't an innocent scan on EMC revealed tomorrow, I think he is the next wagon. Still pretty sure he's scum.

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

Seriously? You’re preemptively declaring an OMGUS vote against someone we’ve all but mechanically cleared?

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

[Hellenic Riot]

I am really annoyed that I am getting shaded for what amounts to people apparently not liking my playstyle and not whether I am actually mafia. Especially when objectively I have put a ridiculous amount of time into trying to solve this game.

Pot, meet kettle

[BunnyGo]

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

Seriously? You’re preemptively declaring an OMGUS vote against someone we’ve all but mechanically cleared?

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

No offense but your voting record isn’t great. I scanned you for a reason.

[Jamiet99uk]

If there isn't an innocent scan on EMC revealed tomorrow, I think he is the next wagon. Still pretty sure he's scum.

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

Did Worcej scumslip?
What was this thing he said, I must have missed it?

[Jamiet99uk]

Not a bad choice. I am voting worcej straight out the gate until he explains how what he said doesn't amount to a slip. If his explanation is reasonable then I'll probably end up on emc with you.

Seriously? You’re preemptively declaring an OMGUS vote against someone we’ve all but mechanically cleared?

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

Oh I see it's this. Ok sorry, gotcha.

[Hellenic Riot]

I'm very interested in the worcej take about Bona "not being scum thanks to VCA", because I really don't see how that's the case.

If one looks at EoD2, when there were two confirmed scum wagons (ghug & brainbomb), it's notable that Hamilton Brian was present and yet after initially trying to start a Bunny wagon he then tried to start a worcej wagon, then voted ghug to put him into the lead ahead of Bona (6-5) when the brain wagon was ratchetting up, and then finally voted brain after he'd claimed. At no point did HB vote Bonatogether there.

Likewise ghug had also been pushing for a worcej wagon and only voted Bona when it was a straight fight between them (before leaving for brainbomb and then returning after the claim). Brainbomb also initially put Bona in the lead about an hour prior to EoD before immediately switching back to ghug, and then only rejoined Bona when ghug had overtaken him (thus putting Bona back into the lead). And Bona himself only voted ghug and not brainbomb when he turned up at the end, when bb was the stronger scum PR. And of course, when you look at yesterday Bona was one of the people who "let off" HB after his question dodging and joined the emc wagon and then also joined the attempt to start a wagon on me.

Like, sure, there's a very reasonable argument that Bona probably isn't scum because the chances of 3 mafia being up for the daykill are very small. But the VCA doesn't make Bona look town - The VCA is downright atrocious for him.

[President Eden]

Seriously? You’re preemptively declaring an OMGUS vote against someone we’ve all but mechanically cleared?

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

No offense but your voting record isn’t great. I scanned you for a reason.

I missed day 1 when we think everyone else did. Don't agree that this was bad.
I hit on days 3 and 4. Don't agree that this was bad.

I missed day 2 at a critical moment, it's true.
But now that we know brainbomb and Brian are mafia, I really struggle to see how anybody could interpret my EOD2 as mafia. If I were mafia, I would have known ghug was mafia, brainbomb was mafia, and Bona was town. If I'm going to end on Bona anyway, why would I press on brainbomb the way I did? Why spend all of EOD2 shopping around for new wagons, instead of whipping votes onto Bona? EOD2 resulted in two previously not heavily suspected mafia effectively outing themselves. There's no reason to do that when I can just consolidate on Bona with plenty of time to go.
It's quite obvious from the way EOD2 went that I don't have all the information.

[Bonatogether]

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

No offense but your voting record isn’t great. I scanned you for a reason.

I missed day 1 when we think everyone else did. Don't agree that this was bad.
I hit on days 3 and 4. Don't agree that this was bad.

I missed day 2 at a critical moment, it's true.
But now that we know brainbomb and Brian are mafia, I really struggle to see how anybody could interpret my EOD2 as mafia. If I were mafia, I would have known ghug was mafia, brainbomb was mafia, and Bona was town. If I'm going to end on Bona anyway, why would I press on brainbomb the way I did? Why spend all of EOD2 shopping around for new wagons, instead of whipping votes onto Bona? EOD2 resulted in two previously not heavily suspected mafia effectively outing themselves. There's no reason to do that when I can just consolidate on Bona with plenty of time to go.
It's quite obvious from the way EOD2 went that I don't have all the information.

or that you're mafia trying to look that way

[Hellenic Riot]

What other explanation exists for him shading my D1 voting record here? I thought we had all town on the block, in which case no one's D1 voting record means a lot in and of itself. (There are still things to read into it, but you wouldn't tell just from the vote record itself; you'd need to compare to prior suspects and the like. But worcej doesn't do this.)
worcej is sure that my voting record on D1 was pro-mafia, and it only could be if he is mafia, since I was steering people away from ND and toward other wagons (and eventually Maniac).
I think there's an appreciable chance he slipped and I at a minimum want him to explain himself.

No offense but your voting record isn’t great. I scanned you for a reason.

I missed day 1 when we think everyone else did. Don't agree that this was bad.
I hit on days 3 and 4. Don't agree that this was bad.

I missed day 2 at a critical moment, it's true.
But now that we know brainbomb and Brian are mafia, I really struggle to see how anybody could interpret my EOD2 as mafia. If I were mafia, I would have known ghug was mafia, brainbomb was mafia, and Bona was town. If I'm going to end on Bona anyway, why would I press on brainbomb the way I did? Why spend all of EOD2 shopping around for new wagons, instead of whipping votes onto Bona? EOD2 resulted in two previously not heavily suspected mafia effectively outing themselves. There's no reason to do that when I can just consolidate on Bona with plenty of time to go.
It's quite obvious from the way EOD2 went that I don't have all the information.

I could also point out that if Bona is indeed mafia your EoD2 ploy of spreading votes and therefore confusion as much as possible might have been a deliberate ploy to cause a tie as that was the only possible outcome that wouldn't have been terrible for scum

[Hellenic Riot]

But yes, the more I look at that VCA, the more damning it looks. How on earth has worcej taken the total opposite conclusion? You could barely come up with a VCA that looks *worse* than Bona's even if you were deliberately trying to...

Three confirmed scum all either reticent or outright avoiding voting for him, guy stays off both counterwagons for as long as possible and then only votes the weaker scum PR right at the end, and the guy joined both of the only two remotely plausible counterwagons to scum on D4 to boot.

[President Eden]

No offense but your voting record isn’t great. I scanned you for a reason.

I missed day 1 when we think everyone else did. Don't agree that this was bad.
I hit on days 3 and 4. Don't agree that this was bad.

I missed day 2 at a critical moment, it's true.
But now that we know brainbomb and Brian are mafia, I really struggle to see how anybody could interpret my EOD2 as mafia. If I were mafia, I would have known ghug was mafia, brainbomb was mafia, and Bona was town. If I'm going to end on Bona anyway, why would I press on brainbomb the way I did? Why spend all of EOD2 shopping around for new wagons, instead of whipping votes onto Bona? EOD2 resulted in two previously not heavily suspected mafia effectively outing themselves. There's no reason to do that when I can just consolidate on Bona with plenty of time to go.
It's quite obvious from the way EOD2 went that I don't have all the information.

I could also point out that if Bona is indeed mafia your EoD2 ploy of spreading votes and therefore confusion as much as possible might have been a deliberate ploy to cause a tie as that was the only possible outcome that wouldn't have been terrible for scum

That's fair, I hadn't considered that. I think the better play would have been to cut losses and vote off the Goon, but I could believe that ambitious mafia would have tried to somehow force a tie there. It did almost happen...

[Bonatogether]

But yes, the more I look at that VCA, the more damning it looks. How on earth has worcej taken the total opposite conclusion? You could barely come up with a VCA that looks *worse* than Bona's even if you were deliberately trying to...

Three confirmed scum all either reticent or outright avoiding voting for him, guy stays off both counterwagons for as long as possible and then only votes the weaker scum PR right at the end, and the guy joined both of the only two remotely plausible counterwagons to scum on D4 to boot.

I wasn't there for most of EoD 2 because I was playing eu4

[Donny Dude]

But yes, the more I look at that VCA, the more damning it looks. How on earth has worcej taken the total opposite conclusion? You could barely come up with a VCA that looks *worse* than Bona's even if you were deliberately trying to...

Three confirmed scum all either reticent or outright avoiding voting for him, guy stays off both counterwagons for as long as possible and then only votes the weaker scum PR right at the end, and the guy joined both of the only two remotely plausible counterwagons to scum on D4 to boot.

I wasn't there for most of EoD 2 because I was playing eu4

You were there for the last 20 minutes or so based off bot.