MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Donny Dude]

You're suggesting in your theory that scum purposefully played badly so that we wouldn't be forced to play well and catch them. Look, this group is not going to do well with Hamilton claiming cop.

N3: they kill rdr. Bunny and Pres say: "damn, scum decided to outguess the doctor and not go for the cop"
N4: they hold the kill. Hamilton claims he was saved. Bunny and Pres say: "damn...nice job doctor!"
N5: they kill
N6: they kill

by now they've gone deep. Yes, Hamilton won't make it to the end, but the scum will get reaction tests to suss out the doctor, the cop, and keep us from getting lots of intel from scum flips.


But your theory is: nah man, it's too straightforward. You gotta go next level! Cut him loose, because town will always get that right. So scum are going to make some weaker psychological bussing plays for less definitive gains.

I think the moment we all collectively decided that a mafia was actually the Cop, we accidentally put that mafia on a timer. How much time varies, but probably 2-3 days, depending on what level we think the Doc & mafia played on, and how deep the mafia was willing to go on propping Brian up as a Cop. Regardless, a timer, and D4 is a realistic window where time would run out--the lower end of that window, but within that window.

Right as the second day rolled over where the mafia made it obvious that they didn't think Brian was the Cop, Brian starts inexplicably flubbing his fake Cop play and flubbing it real bad, to the point where we all realized pretty early in D4 that this guy couldn't be the real Cop, and we had to decide whether we believed that he got himself roped into this thing as VT.

If the mafia know Brian is on a timer and aren't sure exactly when town is going to decide that time is up, it might behoove them to take the initiative and decide what day Brian goes down. That makes the game situation more static and predictable, so it's easier for them to set the narrative they want.


The only other thing that makes sense to me is that they left it in our hands to decide when Brian dies, maybe voted him maybe didn't, but made sure not to tie themselves to him in any way.

I realize those two theories are contradicting, but I'm not sure which one makes more sense yet. I think the first one is what I would have done, out of those two, but I don't know that the mafia would agree.

So, I'd just like to suggest: you're ascribing VERY high level analysis by the mafia team. They'd need to be able to predict this out days, and anticipate the play.

I'm suggestion that most quality mafia teams just sit back and don't screw up and force town to get things right.

I think you should be wary ascribing high level play to the scum team here as opposed to the more obvious choice: The team is AWOL and/or inexperienced. This will lead to a very different hunt than your hypothesis.

And for high level play, then what happened to this team on d2 that rb was on a lead wagon and the godfather had to step in for a save outing himself and ham outs himself also looking back.

[President Eden]

You're suggesting in your theory that scum purposefully played badly so that we wouldn't be forced to play well and catch them. Look, this group is not going to do well with Hamilton claiming cop.

N3: they kill rdr. Bunny and Pres say: "damn, scum decided to outguess the doctor and not go for the cop"
N4: they hold the kill. Hamilton claims he was saved. Bunny and Pres say: "damn...nice job doctor!"
N5: they kill
N6: they kill

by now they've gone deep. Yes, Hamilton won't make it to the end, but the scum will get reaction tests to suss out the doctor, the cop, and keep us from getting lots of intel from scum flips.


But your theory is: nah man, it's too straightforward. You gotta go next level! Cut him loose, because town will always get that right. So scum are going to make some weaker psychological bussing plays for less definitive gains.

I think the moment we all collectively decided that a mafia was actually the Cop, we accidentally put that mafia on a timer. How much time varies, but probably 2-3 days, depending on what level we think the Doc & mafia played on, and how deep the mafia was willing to go on propping Brian up as a Cop. Regardless, a timer, and D4 is a realistic window where time would run out--the lower end of that window, but within that window.

Right as the second day rolled over where the mafia made it obvious that they didn't think Brian was the Cop, Brian starts inexplicably flubbing his fake Cop play and flubbing it real bad, to the point where we all realized pretty early in D4 that this guy couldn't be the real Cop, and we had to decide whether we believed that he got himself roped into this thing as VT.

If the mafia know Brian is on a timer and aren't sure exactly when town is going to decide that time is up, it might behoove them to take the initiative and decide what day Brian goes down. That makes the game situation more static and predictable, so it's easier for them to set the narrative they want.


The only other thing that makes sense to me is that they left it in our hands to decide when Brian dies, maybe voted him maybe didn't, but made sure not to tie themselves to him in any way.

I realize those two theories are contradicting, but I'm not sure which one makes more sense yet. I think the first one is what I would have done, out of those two, but I don't know that the mafia would agree.

So, I'd just like to suggest: you're ascribing VERY high level analysis by the mafia team. They'd need to be able to predict this out days, and anticipate the play.

I'm suggestion that most quality mafia teams just sit back and don't screw up and force town to get things right.

I think you should be wary ascribing high level play to the scum team here as opposed to the more obvious choice: The team is AWOL and/or inexperienced. This will lead to a very different hunt than your hypothesis.

I gotta be honest, I don't think this is particularly high level play. It's pretty obvious from the loss of the Roleblocker that Brian had a grace period of two day/night cycles before the jig was up. Unless they wanted to go real deep like you said with holding a kill etc., they had to know he was on a timer.

That said, I think you're still probably right that they let him twist in the wind instead and just didn't make a big deal out of it. Sucks that he got caught and all, but as long as he doesn't drag anyone down with him via obvious association tells, the last two mafia can figure something out. I think that happens regardless of experience level: an inexperienced mafia doesn't see the lines well enough and passively allows this to happen, an experienced mafia understands they just have to make town get it right and not give anything away.

Plus, the only person who really stands out to me as fitting the profile of my "deliberate bus" theory is Hellenic Riot, and I don't think HR would actually do this. So that probably doesn't work.

[Donny Dude]

It is not something we should ignore though and it is a possibility.

[aarodactyl]

Damn, that wasn't clear.

Hamilton should ALWAYS make his hypoclaims. He should hard claim cop! Why not with your theory?! The scum team get a CC out of it, and can claim "kill/save levels" all day.

Hell, they can even hold their kill one night for sh*ts and giggles. Maybe even get the doctor to accidentally reveal himself.

Compare Hamilton's capture to mine last game. I was caught mechanically with no scum chat to guide me, and town NOT telling me exactly how to get in their graces. And I got a CC out of it at least.

Hamilton got nothing, and wasn't even dead to rights yet.

Eh. You only got a CC because of the fighting but I see your point. I think it’s pretty bad play on HBs part

[President Eden]

My town is:
Fluminator (Full moon)
Aaro (Half moon)
chaqa (Harvest moon)
Jamie (Fingernail moon)
Eden (shocking Eclipse!!!)
rivera (fading new moon)
damo (tinfoiling he blew up the moon)
worcej (Blood moon)

Null
Vecna
HR
Bozo
Donny
Celaph
emc

Scum
HB
ghug

fucking lol. This probably won't help y'all much, but I know for a fact that he named two townies (myself and rivera) as town, and I currently feel anywhere from moderately to extremely positive about the rest of his town reads. Unless someone's doing a great job slipping under the radar, I'm pretty sure brainbomb listed all townies as town and that the other two mafia are either Bona (who is absent) and one null, or two nulls. He didn't even bother pretending to suspect a townie.

[aarodactyl]

Hi everyone; ya'll are busy through the evening hours. Aaro...pretty strong post. In my notes I am writing, I've got you almost jumping from tier 2 to tier 1.

Allow me the privilege of catching up while also presuming to do some work (back to it after the holidays).

Here's the one time Hamilton mentions notes.

K, thanks.
Do you think it is odd then about flum's quote in relation to the notes?

HBs notes cleared him last game. So it’s not weird to me

[President Eden]

My town is:
Fluminator (Full moon)
Aaro (Half moon)
chaqa (Harvest moon)
Jamie (Fingernail moon)
Eden (shocking Eclipse!!!)
rivera (fading new moon)
damo (tinfoiling he blew up the moon)
worcej (Blood moon)

Null
Vecna
HR
Bozo
Donny
Celaph
emc

Scum
HB
ghug

fucking lol. This probably won't help y'all much, but I know for a fact that he named two townies (myself and rivera) as town, and I currently feel anywhere from moderately to extremely positive about the rest of his town reads. Unless someone's doing a great job slipping under the radar, I'm pretty sure brainbomb listed all townies as town and that the other two mafia are either Bona (who is absent) and one null, or two nulls. He didn't even bother pretending to suspect a townie.

Or Bunny I guess, who is also missing.

[President Eden]

Actually I doubt brainbomb would forget to list his partners. So probably neither Bona nor Bunny. Two of the nulls.

[aarodactyl]

Actually I doubt brainbomb would forget to list his partners. So probably neither Bona nor Bunny. Two of the nulls.

I agree but it's also getting into WIFOM

[celaph]

I voted for EMC early because I scumleaned them and townread flum. Then I stayed on because I liked who was on it. However, HB kept looking scummier and scummier and EMC started looking better.

I mentioned to HR with like 45 minutes in the day that I'd be willing to swap, but I wanted to wait until the announcement. Near the end of the day, I decided to swap because HB didn't look anything like how he did last game when he was getting DKed (not even an attempt to post notes). Also HB was in the lead and ties are anti-town.

I mainly wanted to call you out on it because of your slightly earlier post which seemed to suggest that what changed your mind was EMC's shitpost.

Digging into bozos post wasn’t a shitpost. They also engaged with us a lot more than HB at eod and it felt townier. I still think they’re a bit scummy, just not as much as HB

Can someone do a bozo on bozo?

No, but I can pull up the bozo shitpost draft from D1 and clean it a little if you want, especially since he thought you were closest to figuring it out for some reason.

[aarodactyl]

I mainly wanted to call you out on it because of your slightly earlier post which seemed to suggest that what changed your mind was EMC's shitpost.

Digging into bozos post wasn’t a shitpost. They also engaged with us a lot more than HB at eod and it felt townier. I still think they’re a bit scummy, just not as much as HB

Can someone do a bozo on bozo?

No, but I can pull up the bozo shitpost draft from D1 and clean it a little if you want, especially since he thought you were closest to figuring it out for some reason.

Yeah, I remember that but also I don't agree it was really a shitpost tbh (even if emc called it that)

[celaph]

I've had a bit of a rethink about Brian.

I think Brian and his teammates understood what was going on from the moment that we all started yelling SHHHHHHHHHH at EOD2. That put Brian on a clock, since he couldn't be nightkilled. There wasn't any real point to playing like a VT because if he doesn't bait the nightkill, it's pretty clear that he's not Cop OR VT.

More precisely, D4 was the day where we would have started to reconsider Brian, because it's the day in which he "should" have died if the Doctor and the mafia make the level 1 optimal plays (mafia shoots N2 into a Doc save then shoots N3 for the actual kill). It's debatable as to whether D4 or D5 was the day, because the Doc might have tried to level the mafia by not saving Brian N2. But by D4 at least, and certainly by D5, Brian would be outed as mafia.

I think the mafia had to have known that, and the optimal thing to do is to bus Brian hard starting on D4, and to have Brian flub it at EON3 or beginning of D4 and get himself killed D4. If the day can be dominated by Brian being put on the outs, then we don't do a lot of other solving until he flips, so D4 gets "wasted" relative to its potential (if we had all collectively realized this, killed Brian, and talked about other things). If Brian's teammates are gunning for Brian all day on D4, they look good for busing him.

The only other thing that makes sense is that the mafia realizes the above, but doesn't value the town credit from busing Brian: maybe it's unnecessary because they're already town, or maybe they're worried about the risk of being caught if we figure out the above logic, and would prefer no association whatsoever.

I don't think emc's alignment actually matters for figuring out D4. If emc is the other mafia, then the mafia were already trying to make today about Brian, as it's better to sacrifice Brian (who is already on a timer) than emc (who isn't). If emc is town, then maybe they would hope for emc to be killed narrowly and then drive the bus right over Brian's poor face on D5, loudly castigating people who were preferring emc along the way.

I haven't worked out who this implicates yet, I've been multitasking on this for the past hour or so. I'll figure out who is implicated later on. But I wanted to share this theory first and get it out there for people.

If you're going in with the desire to hard bus someone, why also have Brian flub his defense. If everyone thinks Brian is scum, then you get way less town credit than if you bus someone who people were actively defending.

[damo666]

Nice one guys!

EMC, you're not clear.

Damo, what the fuck was that?

Sorry, Jamie didn't mean to give you a heart attack.

I don't want to discuss it further at this stage though. Laters. Thanks in anticipation.

Why are you still up? Aren’t you old? And from Londinium?

Old? Older than you, yes. But old?

[damo666]

@PE I reckon you are overthinking scum strategy. Not that I have any insights particularly but you're giving them way too much credit. I suspect they are simply in chaos. Very much points to them not having Chaqa to rely on!

[damo666]

I think I've narrowed it down to 6 possible scumpairs.

[BunnyGo]

@PE I reckon you are overthinking scum strategy. Not that I have any insights particularly but you're giving them way too much credit. I suspect they are simply in chaos. Very much points to them not having Chaqa to rely on!

To be fair, chaqa was MIA last game in scum chat. And distracted this game. He’s still in my possibilities

[BunnyGo]

Sorry, Jamie didn't mean to give you a heart attack.

I don't want to discuss it further at this stage though. Laters. Thanks in anticipation.

Why are you still up? Aren’t you old? And from Londinium?

Old? Older than you, yes. But old?

Old enough to have voted in both the referendum to join the EU and in the referendum to leave?

[BunnyGo]

I think I've narrowed it down to 6 possible scumpairs.

Sharing before EON would provide a chance to scan most informative player.

There’s also something to be said for scanning players who could surprise us.

One other thing I just thought of: the European players may be scum and disadvantage at EOD/EON. Yes I posted my hyposcan at 2 hours to go. But that was 11 PM and they may not have been here to help HB

[damo666]

Why are you still up? Aren’t you old? And from Londinium?

Old? Older than you, yes. But old?

Old enough to have voted in both the referendum to join the EU and in the referendum to leave?

There was never a referendum to join the EU or any of its prior incarnations. UK joined the EC on 01.01.1973.

There was a referendum in 1975 on whether to remain in the EC or 'Common Market' as it was commonly known (although technically the common market or EEC was only a subset of the EC). I was not old enough to vote in said referendum although ancient enough to remember it.

I did vote in the recent referendum (to remain).

[damo666]

I think I've narrowed it down to 6 possible scumpairs.

Sharing before EON would provide a chance to scan most informative player.

There’s also something to be said for scanning players who could surprise us.

One other thing I just thought of: the European players may be scum and disadvantage at EOD/EON. Yes I posted my hyposcan at 2 hours to go. But that was 11 PM and they may not have been here to help HB

Jamie, HR and I were all on at EOD. Are there other players in a similar timezone?

The scumpairs are 2 from celaph, Flum, HR and EMC.