MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

And, as a matter of a starting point in letting you all know where I stand, there is this:
Reads as of D2. Definitely fluid and not ossified.
Tier 1 (would definitely not kill): President Eden, Jamie, myself
Tier 2 (would need a very convincing case to kill): aaro, worcej/durga, RDR
Tier 3 (ambivalent, could kill, could keep alive): bona, bozo, brain, celaph, damo, flum, emc, ghug, HR,
Tier 4 (remove them already): bunny, chaqa, donny, vecna

Donny, you're a motherfu**ing genius.

OK, here were my thoughts:

"Well, I know for a fact that vecna and I in tier 4 are town"
"I know that President Eden in Tier 1 is town"
"Let's see the middle tiers...hmm aaro, worcej/durga ...wait, what?!

WHY DID HE hyphen worcej and durga?! He also has Flum listed in Tier 3.

I think this townclears worcej. It possibly clears Flum too.

I remember this faintly coming up at the time. Great job by you two bringing it back into focus.
I agree that this basically clears worcej, because if worcej and Fluminator were both mafia with Brian, then he wouldn't have confused worcej as Durga's replacement -- he'd have seen those two interacting with each other, and been hyper-aware of them as his teammates.
I don't think this clears Fluminator, though, because there was never a point in time where Fluminator was in the game with someone who subsequently subbed.

I don't particularly suspect Fluminator right now, so I'm not saying this to shade him, just to ensure that we don't hand out a slip-based clear incorrectly.

[President Eden]

That all said, aside from the slip, I don't think there's a lot to be divined from his reads. I kinda think Brian was just making shit up as he went along. There were glaring inconsistencies.

That said, I'm not going to discourage you from digging!

[Donny Dude]

Reads that seemed to stay the same for the most part were Donny, eden, Jamie, and aaro.
The change from day to night 3 scum is Bunny Chaqa and vecna to Worcej emc flum.
The eon 3 also moves chaqa from scum to town while Worcej does the opposite. This seems like a big movement.
Damo Bunny bona and hr barely move on the lists either going from could be convinced to null.
Celaph does move to a townread.

[BunnyGo]

I've had a bit of a rethink about Brian.

I think Brian and his teammates understood what was going on from the moment that we all started yelling SHHHHHHHHHH at EOD2. That put Brian on a clock, since he couldn't be nightkilled. There wasn't any real point to playing like a VT because if he doesn't bait the nightkill, it's pretty clear that he's not Cop OR VT.

More precisely, D4 was the day where we would have started to reconsider Brian, because it's the day in which he "should" have died if the Doctor and the mafia make the level 1 optimal plays (mafia shoots N2 into a Doc save then shoots N3 for the actual kill). It's debatable as to whether D4 or D5 was the day, because the Doc might have tried to level the mafia by not saving Brian N2. But by D4 at least, and certainly by D5, Brian would be outed as mafia.

I think the mafia had to have known that, and the optimal thing to do is to bus Brian hard starting on D4, and to have Brian flub it at EON3 or beginning of D4 and get himself killed D4. If the day can be dominated by Brian being put on the outs, then we don't do a lot of other solving until he flips, so D4 gets "wasted" relative to its potential (if we had all collectively realized this, killed Brian, and talked about other things). If Brian's teammates are gunning for Brian all day on D4, they look good for busing him.

The only other thing that makes sense is that the mafia realizes the above, but doesn't value the town credit from busing Brian: maybe it's unnecessary because they're already town, or maybe they're worried about the risk of being caught if we figure out the above logic, and would prefer no association whatsoever.

I don't think emc's alignment actually matters for figuring out D4. If emc is the other mafia, then the mafia were already trying to make today about Brian, as it's better to sacrifice Brian (who is already on a timer) than emc (who isn't). If emc is town, then maybe they would hope for emc to be killed narrowly and then drive the bus right over Brian's poor face on D5, loudly castigating people who were preferring emc along the way.

I haven't worked out who this implicates yet, I've been multitasking on this for the past hour or so. I'll figure out who is implicated later on. But I wanted to share this theory first and get it out there for people.

So this theory:

1) Clears people saying SHHHHHHHH
2) implicates people bussing Hamilton hard (my dyslexia is hard with the brain/brian)
3 (AND MOST IMPORTANT)) I don't understand why Brain doesn't squirm harder with hyposcans at EON3. This is terrible scumplay:

A) He claims them, and then we can talk about the "kill/save levels"
B) We'll never kill him if he hard claims Cop without a counter-claim. And scum the get a bead on the cop and we enter "kill/save levels" again.

[Donny Dude]

And, as a matter of a starting point in letting you all know where I stand, there is this:
Reads as of D2. Definitely fluid and not ossified.
Tier 1 (would definitely not kill): President Eden, Jamie, myself
Tier 2 (would need a very convincing case to kill): aaro, worcej/durga, RDR
Tier 3 (ambivalent, could kill, could keep alive): bona, bozo, brain, celaph, damo, flum, emc, ghug, HR,
Tier 4 (remove them already): bunny, chaqa, donny, vecna

Donny, you're a motherfu**ing genius.

OK, here were my thoughts:

"Well, I know for a fact that vecna and I in tier 4 are town"
"I know that President Eden in Tier 1 is town"
"Let's see the middle tiers...hmm aaro, worcej/durga ...wait, what?!

WHY DID HE hyphen worcej and durga?! He also has Flum listed in Tier 3.

I think this townclears worcej. It possibly clears Flum too.

K, that is interesting.

[BunnyGo]

Damn, that wasn't clear.

Hamilton should ALWAYS make his hypoclaims. He should hard claim cop! Why not with your theory?! The scum team get a CC out of it, and can claim "kill/save levels" all day.

Hell, they can even hold their kill one night for sh*ts and giggles. Maybe even get the doctor to accidentally reveal himself.

[BunnyGo]

Damn, that wasn't clear.

Hamilton should ALWAYS make his hypoclaims. He should hard claim cop! Why not with your theory?! The scum team get a CC out of it, and can claim "kill/save levels" all day.

Hell, they can even hold their kill one night for sh*ts and giggles. Maybe even get the doctor to accidentally reveal himself.

Compare Hamilton's capture to mine last game. I was caught mechanically with no scum chat to guide me, and town NOT telling me exactly how to get in their graces. And I got a CC out of it at least.

Hamilton got nothing, and wasn't even dead to rights yet.

[Donny Dude]

Damn, that wasn't clear.

Hamilton should ALWAYS make his hypoclaims. He should hard claim cop! Why not with your theory?! The scum team get a CC out of it, and can claim "kill/save levels" all day.

Hell, they can even hold their kill one night for sh*ts and giggles. Maybe even get the doctor to accidentally reveal himself.

I am starting to wonder if Brainbomb and ghug were the experienced scum and the rest of the team is not as experienced. Because it seems that after d2 Hamilton's play is nowhere near as good as it was before like the hyposcans. Easy to fake and curate a reads list around.

[BunnyGo]

Worcej: I think I was town-reading Durga; no, I definitely was. Her bailing out isn’t scum-indicative. She cut ties with our Webdip World team. However, Worcej gets the benefit of the doubt to at least get through another day or two. Sorry to hear about the Covid. That sucks. Rest up, heal up.

Why does your read on Durga form the basis for your read on Worcej?

Yup, Jaime caught it at the time.

[BunnyGo]

worcej is my top suspect for these reasons:

1. ND getting subbed D1 is a scum red flag for me.

Oh seriously Bozo not this shit again. Scumleaning Worcej because ND subbed out is silly, but making him your top "scumread" and listing this as one of your main reasons is downright ridiculous.

So you dont think the pattern that Bozo listed is at least some reason for suspicion?

ND has a clear pattern of flaking as scum D1 and making excuses, only to pick up later on. He displayed that here. As town he is nearly always hyper involved.

Why does this not at least entice you slightly?

Does this clear bozo too?

[BunnyGo]

Since bozo knew, they'd have mentioned correctly in chat...

[President Eden]

I've had a bit of a rethink about Brian.

I think Brian and his teammates understood what was going on from the moment that we all started yelling SHHHHHHHHHH at EOD2. That put Brian on a clock, since he couldn't be nightkilled. There wasn't any real point to playing like a VT because if he doesn't bait the nightkill, it's pretty clear that he's not Cop OR VT.

More precisely, D4 was the day where we would have started to reconsider Brian, because it's the day in which he "should" have died if the Doctor and the mafia make the level 1 optimal plays (mafia shoots N2 into a Doc save then shoots N3 for the actual kill). It's debatable as to whether D4 or D5 was the day, because the Doc might have tried to level the mafia by not saving Brian N2. But by D4 at least, and certainly by D5, Brian would be outed as mafia.

I think the mafia had to have known that, and the optimal thing to do is to bus Brian hard starting on D4, and to have Brian flub it at EON3 or beginning of D4 and get himself killed D4. If the day can be dominated by Brian being put on the outs, then we don't do a lot of other solving until he flips, so D4 gets "wasted" relative to its potential (if we had all collectively realized this, killed Brian, and talked about other things). If Brian's teammates are gunning for Brian all day on D4, they look good for busing him.

The only other thing that makes sense is that the mafia realizes the above, but doesn't value the town credit from busing Brian: maybe it's unnecessary because they're already town, or maybe they're worried about the risk of being caught if we figure out the above logic, and would prefer no association whatsoever.

I don't think emc's alignment actually matters for figuring out D4. If emc is the other mafia, then the mafia were already trying to make today about Brian, as it's better to sacrifice Brian (who is already on a timer) than emc (who isn't). If emc is town, then maybe they would hope for emc to be killed narrowly and then drive the bus right over Brian's poor face on D5, loudly castigating people who were preferring emc along the way.

I haven't worked out who this implicates yet, I've been multitasking on this for the past hour or so. I'll figure out who is implicated later on. But I wanted to share this theory first and get it out there for people.

So this theory:

1) Clears people saying SHHHHHHHH
2) implicates people bussing Hamilton hard (my dyslexia is hard with the brain/brian)
3 (AND MOST IMPORTANT)) I don't understand why Brain doesn't squirm harder with hyposcans at EON3. This is terrible scumplay:

A) He claims them, and then we can talk about the "kill/save levels"
B) We'll never kill him if he hard claims Cop without a counter-claim. And scum the get a bead on the cop and we enter "kill/save levels" again.

In order:

1) I don't think so. It was kind of an obvious thing to point out that the logical implication of Brian's vote was that he was Cop. I think everyone who called it out at the time would have done so as either alignment.

2) Yes. Still working out who. HR is going to hate my gut reaction lol, but I am making myself do a full reread and think through it.

3) "Terrible" is a bit strong. I somewhat see your point, but...
I don't think they had a realistic chance of getting a Cop counterclaim. The Cop has no reason to counterclaim Brian because it'll eventually become clear he can't be Cop, and then we'll just kill Brian. Only if Brian made it to final N would the Cop need to counterclaim, but at that point it's way too late.
And he doesn't need to claim scans and keep up the charade if the plan is for him to go down D4. In fact, it's better to botch it just to look obviously mafia.

[BunnyGo]

Worcej: I think I was town-reading Durga; no, I definitely was. Her bailing out isn’t scum-indicative. She cut ties with our Webdip World team. However, Worcej gets the benefit of the doubt to at least get through another day or two. Sorry to hear about the Covid. That sucks. Rest up, heal up.

Why does your read on Durga form the basis for your read on Worcej?

It's my confusion and being easily-swayed by the "scum get subbed out D1" business. I read her as town; I should offer that same courtesy to Worcej.

He didn't even get it after it was pointed out.

[President Eden]

Why does your read on Durga form the basis for your read on Worcej?

It's my confusion and being easily-swayed by the "scum get subbed out D1" business. I read her as town; I should offer that same courtesy to Worcej.

He didn't even get it after it was pointed out.

Yup, down with this.

[BunnyGo]

@PresEden I think you're going too many "levels" deep in your analysis.

[President Eden]

The one thing I'm pretty sure about is that trying to save Brian there was not happening. But I didn't think anybody was trying all that hard to do it. Even scrubs like me that were getting cold feet about which wagon to kill still were of the mindset that both wagons were good.

[Donny Dude]

Why does your read on Durga form the basis for your read on Worcej?

It's my confusion and being easily-swayed by the "scum get subbed out D1" business. I read her as town; I should offer that same courtesy to Worcej.

He didn't even get it after it was pointed out.

You know on further thought, hamilton was such a mess it may have been decided to just cut him loose although it means one less member. I noticed he lurked a lot more and I wonder, Bunny past d2 or in all of Hamilton's iso particularly on d4 is there anyone he is angry at tonally?

[President Eden]

@PresEden I think you're going too many "levels" deep in your analysis.

Can you clarify what you mean here?

[worcej]

Damn, that wasn't clear.

Hamilton should ALWAYS make his hypoclaims. He should hard claim cop! Why not with your theory?! The scum team get a CC out of it, and can claim "kill/save levels" all day.

Hell, they can even hold their kill one night for sh*ts and giggles. Maybe even get the doctor to accidentally reveal himself.

This right here is my thoughts too - HB played his situation out so poorly and I struggle to think it was team planning to try to make distance.

I think HB just made bad plays on his own, which he has shown is his normal.

[BunnyGo]

Not to start a dumb thread, but who would you scan instead?

celaph

Really? Because of their "I'm the person that fits that description the best." response?

Here's something tonal from N2