MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[aarodactyl]

My survey is hereby abandoned.

The list of non-voters was

• Celaph
• E.m.c.^42
• Hamilton Brian
• ND/Worcej

This is probably pretty unhelpful because I don't think EMC or Worcej are active and HB can't really respond to it without commenting on his role which he seems incapable of.

I have noticed Celaph appearing online all morning and I'm not sure why they aren't posting anything.

[Fluminator]

EMC is a really schmexy wagon right now

[aarodactyl]

@PE: I'm asking you this because you seem to really want to vote out HB. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but here's a clarifying question.

At most, how many scum do you think there are off the HB wagon? Can you go wagon by wagon (including no vote)?

Anyone else can answer this question as well. I have follow ups I want to ask

[President Eden]

@PE: I'm asking you this because you seem to really want to vote out HB. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but here's a clarifying question.

At most, how many scum do you think there are off the HB wagon? Can you go wagon by wagon (including no vote)?

At most there are three mafia off the HB wagon

I think emc is probably also mafia. In fact, I would probably even say that if we're wrong about either one of them, we're more likely to be wrong about Brian. We have good behavioral analysis behind why emc is mafia, whereas a lot of the reason why we think Brian is mafia is based on unexplained role-based decision-making which could conceivably be the result of town messing up.

I would expect that if Brian were town, mafia would be taking the easy out to kill him and keep emc alive another day. worcej is probably the only player who can be mafia in that situation and not have voted; the shot here would be pretty clear.

If Brian is mafia, then the mafia is probably deciding how to vote based on considerations I can't predict without knowing who they are already--things like which vote is more consistent with their prior reasoning, which flips shade which people, etc. Maybe if I spent a lot of time today rereading everything then I could guess at it, but I think you wouldn't be able to answer this definitively without knowing what the mafia knows.

[President Eden]

I am going to make this post to lampshade that I have reasons for my voting pattern today, about which I cannot be forthright lest the voting no longer be effective. If I need to explain later then I'll come back and quote this post to do it.

It's not because I am a power role to be clear.

[Hellenic Riot]

@PE: I'm asking you this because you seem to really want to vote out HB. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but here's a clarifying question.

At most, how many scum do you think there are off the HB wagon? Can you go wagon by wagon (including no vote)?

At most there are three mafia off the HB wagon

I think emc is probably also mafia. In fact, I would probably even say that if we're wrong about either one of them, we're more likely to be wrong about Brian. We have good behavioral analysis behind why emc is mafia, whereas a lot of the reason why we think Brian is mafia is based on unexplained role-based decision-making which could conceivably be the result of town messing up.

I would expect that if Brian were town, mafia would be taking the easy out to kill him and keep emc alive another day. worcej is probably the only player who can be mafia in that situation and not have voted; the shot here would be pretty clear.

If Brian is mafia, then the mafia is probably deciding how to vote based on considerations I can't predict without knowing who they are already--things like which vote is more consistent with their prior reasoning, which flips shade which people, etc. Maybe if I spent a lot of time today rereading everything then I could guess at it, but I think you wouldn't be able to answer this definitively without knowing what the mafia knows.

I'm not entirely convinced by that first paragraph. Prior to EoD2, HB *was* drawing attention for his lack of presence in this game. It's not like he's performed some stellar townie game that was totally undone by that single event. Even if you ignore EoD2 entirely, I don't see a single reason to think HB is town. Does anyone else?

[Fluminator]

I think HB might be mafia and he was one of the first people I sussed.

But I think EMC is more likely mafia, and I'll get more town cred if he flips scum than HB flipping scum allowing me to get away with not tryharding longer.

[aarodactyl]

@PE: I'm asking you this because you seem to really want to vote out HB. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but here's a clarifying question.

At most, how many scum do you think there are off the HB wagon? Can you go wagon by wagon (including no vote)?

At most there are three mafia off the HB wagon

I think emc is probably also mafia. In fact, I would probably even say that if we're wrong about either one of them, we're more likely to be wrong about Brian. We have good behavioral analysis behind why emc is mafia, whereas a lot of the reason why we think Brian is mafia is based on unexplained role-based decision-making which could conceivably be the result of town messing up.

I would expect that if Brian were town, mafia would be taking the easy out to kill him and keep emc alive another day. worcej is probably the only player who can be mafia in that situation and not have voted; the shot here would be pretty clear.

If Brian is mafia, then the mafia is probably deciding how to vote based on considerations I can't predict without knowing who they are already--things like which vote is more consistent with their prior reasoning, which flips shade which people, etc. Maybe if I spent a lot of time today rereading everything then I could guess at it, but I think you wouldn't be able to answer this definitively without knowing what the mafia knows.

Ok. That didn't really answer my question, but it's fine. The point I wanted to make is that I think all of EMC's wagon atm is town. That makes me think we likely have 1 or 2 scum on HB's wagon (regardless of what EMC is).

[BunnyGo]

I know brainbomb used to fake claim a lot as town, but I think he usually had a reason when he was scum.

He was the godfather...fake claim, retract. Get Bona deaded (either goon or town), and when scanned by cop who wonders what's up, gets a clean. We all think "oh brainbomb...you did it again!"

Maybe he thought he could draw the cop scan, but if he thought he could get town credit when a scum was DKed, he was wrong, because a scum was DKed. I do think the cop claim would be a better play if Bonatogether is scum, with the idea that the third scum would be assumed to be town no matter which of the other 2 were revealed first, but I doubt brainbomb was thinking that far ahead.

Welcome to Bunny’s spacious tunnel.

[Hellenic Riot]

@PE: I'm asking you this because you seem to really want to vote out HB. I don't necessarily disagree with that, but here's a clarifying question.

At most, how many scum do you think there are off the HB wagon? Can you go wagon by wagon (including no vote)?

At most there are three mafia off the HB wagon

I think emc is probably also mafia. In fact, I would probably even say that if we're wrong about either one of them, we're more likely to be wrong about Brian. We have good behavioral analysis behind why emc is mafia, whereas a lot of the reason why we think Brian is mafia is based on unexplained role-based decision-making which could conceivably be the result of town messing up.

I would expect that if Brian were town, mafia would be taking the easy out to kill him and keep emc alive another day. worcej is probably the only player who can be mafia in that situation and not have voted; the shot here would be pretty clear.

If Brian is mafia, then the mafia is probably deciding how to vote based on considerations I can't predict without knowing who they are already--things like which vote is more consistent with their prior reasoning, which flips shade which people, etc. Maybe if I spent a lot of time today rereading everything then I could guess at it, but I think you wouldn't be able to answer this definitively without knowing what the mafia knows.

Ok. That didn't really answer my question, but it's fine. The point I wanted to make is that I think all of EMC's wagon atm is town. That makes me think we likely have 1 or 2 scum on HB's wagon (regardless of what EMC is).

I thought this was quite an interesting take until I realised that it's just you townreading a whole three people.

[President Eden]

Ok. That didn't really answer my question, but it's fine. The point I wanted to make is that I think all of EMC's wagon atm is town. That makes me think we likely have 1 or 2 scum on HB's wagon (regardless of what EMC is).

Give me a few minutes to swallow my pride on Fluminator, it's a really big chunk today.

[celaph]

Can you explain your reasoning for HR being scum in that case?

If there was a similar occurance (SvT, then mafia add a S to split the vote and get the town out), then worcej and Hellenic would both be scum. I think we should vote one out the day after we vote brain so that we can determine if that's what happened. There's already some sus on worcej, so he's a viable target for this even without this.

How does it reveal HR’s?

cause scum may have pulled the stuff they did on d2 on d1 as well. It worked the first time so they thought they could do it again.

Oh, I was assuming that your vote was right and you meant to write HR instead of Worcej.

I dislike this argument as a whole though. You identify splitting the vote in SvT scenarios as something mafia may do and then are trying to justify a kill based on fitting that narrative to the situation. For one, the vote for HR was notably earlier in the day. Secondly, only one person ever moved from ND to HR, it was Jamie who later moved back to ND. Thirdly, if you would really want to confirm your suspicion, you would flip Worcej. You seem to be discounting the likelihood of other situations where one is scum and the other town to fit your story.

[bozotheclown]

I do think cop should reveal just before EON4 though.

(Unless ofc it's HB who should disclose immediately).

If you think there is any chance Hamilton is the cop, forcing him to claim it is not optimal. There are reasons why it is not necessary to narrow down the cop today, or at least not in the first half of the day.

[aarodactyl]

At most there are three mafia off the HB wagon

I think emc is probably also mafia. In fact, I would probably even say that if we're wrong about either one of them, we're more likely to be wrong about Brian. We have good behavioral analysis behind why emc is mafia, whereas a lot of the reason why we think Brian is mafia is based on unexplained role-based decision-making which could conceivably be the result of town messing up.

I would expect that if Brian were town, mafia would be taking the easy out to kill him and keep emc alive another day. worcej is probably the only player who can be mafia in that situation and not have voted; the shot here would be pretty clear.

If Brian is mafia, then the mafia is probably deciding how to vote based on considerations I can't predict without knowing who they are already--things like which vote is more consistent with their prior reasoning, which flips shade which people, etc. Maybe if I spent a lot of time today rereading everything then I could guess at it, but I think you wouldn't be able to answer this definitively without knowing what the mafia knows.

Ok. That didn't really answer my question, but it's fine. The point I wanted to make is that I think all of EMC's wagon atm is town. That makes me think we likely have 1 or 2 scum on HB's wagon (regardless of what EMC is).

I thought this was quite an interesting take until I realised that it's just you townreading a whole three people.

Have a 4 person wagon with no scum on it seems pretty strange to me. I'm not sure what to make of it though

[Bonatogether]

Can you explain your reasoning for HR being scum in that case?

If there was a similar occurance (SvT, then mafia add a S to split the vote and get the town out), then worcej and Hellenic would both be scum. I think we should vote one out the day after we vote brain so that we can determine if that's what happened. There's already some sus on worcej, so he's a viable target for this even without this.

cause scum may have pulled the stuff they did on d2 on d1 as well. It worked the first time so they thought they could do it again.

Oh, I was assuming that your vote was right and you meant to write HR instead of Worcej.

I dislike this argument as a whole though. You identify splitting the vote in SvT scenarios as something mafia may do and then are trying to justify a kill based on fitting that narrative to the situation. For one, the vote for HR was notably earlier in the day. Secondly, only one person ever moved from ND to HR, it was Jamie who later moved back to ND. Thirdly, if you would really want to confirm your suspicion, you would flip Worcej. You seem to be discounting the likelihood of other situations where one is scum and the other town to fit your story.

I did want to flip worcej but then that didnt seem to be a wagon today, and this is the other half of that link, so eh.

[aarodactyl]

Oh, I was assuming that your vote was right and you meant to write HR instead of Worcej.

I dislike this argument as a whole though. You identify splitting the vote in SvT scenarios as something mafia may do and then are trying to justify a kill based on fitting that narrative to the situation. For one, the vote for HR was notably earlier in the day. Secondly, only one person ever moved from ND to HR, it was Jamie who later moved back to ND. Thirdly, if you would really want to confirm your suspicion, you would flip Worcej. You seem to be discounting the likelihood of other situations where one is scum and the other town to fit your story.

I did want to flip worcej but then that didnt seem to be a wagon today, and this is the other half of that link, so eh.

To be honest, I'm not really this that carefully. However, we have 30 hours left in the day, why can't worcej be a valid wagon?

[celaph]

My survey is hereby abandoned.

The list of non-voters was

• Celaph
• E.m.c.^42
• Hamilton Brian
• ND/Worcej

This is probably pretty unhelpful because I don't think EMC or Worcej are active and HB can't really respond to it without commenting on his role which he seems incapable of.

I have noticed Celaph appearing online all morning and I'm not sure why they aren't posting anything.

I don't know if it is clear from previous games, but I don't usually respond as I'm catching up. Rather save the posts that I may want to respond to and then decide later. That with being otherwise slow moving through the thread.

[Hellenic Riot]

Ok. That didn't really answer my question, but it's fine. The point I wanted to make is that I think all of EMC's wagon atm is town. That makes me think we likely have 1 or 2 scum on HB's wagon (regardless of what EMC is).

I thought this was quite an interesting take until I realised that it's just you townreading a whole three people.

Have a 4 person wagon with no scum on it seems pretty strange to me. I'm not sure what to make of it though

We're 30 hours out from EoD. Wagon Analysis is pretty garbage at this point in time. It's very easy for scum to pressure a teammate early in a phase but then be nowhere near voting them come the end of it.

For an example of this, I provide uno brainbombo.

[aarodactyl]

My survey is hereby abandoned.

The list of non-voters was

• Celaph
• E.m.c.^42
• Hamilton Brian
• ND/Worcej

This is probably pretty unhelpful because I don't think EMC or Worcej are active and HB can't really respond to it without commenting on his role which he seems incapable of.

I have noticed Celaph appearing online all morning and I'm not sure why they aren't posting anything.

I don't know if it is clear from previous games, but I don't usually respond as I'm catching up. Rather save the posts that I may want to respond to and then decide later. That with being otherwise slow moving through the thread.

That's fair. That bugged me last game as well. However, I do it too

[aarodactyl]

I thought this was quite an interesting take until I realised that it's just you townreading a whole three people.

Have a 4 person wagon with no scum on it seems pretty strange to me. I'm not sure what to make of it though

We're 30 hours out from EoD. Wagon Analysis is pretty garbage at this point in time. It's very easy for scum to pressure a teammate early in a phase but then be nowhere near voting them come the end of it.

For an example of this, I provide uno brainbombo.

I think that's actually classic for scum. I'm not leaving the EMC wagon, but the fact there are no scum on it, makes me think HB is scummy. However, I get this is completely WIFOM