MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Fluminator]

##Vote EMC

Yeah ok

[Chaqa]

Once EMC flips, the next scum I catch may surprise you

[bozotheclown]

One thought,
I don't think scum bozo outs his teammate hb with that post. Although he could be looking for towncred, it does not seem like it. So my conclusion based off that is bozo and hb are not on the scum team together. Though that is just my first reaction to it.

Sorry to have cross posted this with speculation that you may be scum, but considering that, I could not help but wonder if you could be pocketing me.

Why are you apologizing bozo, that is just weird.
I have a question for you to consider Bozo.
I know you think I got caught on wagons, but do you think scum Donny let ghug or any of his scummates die just that easily? I think I proved scum me in m60 was perfectly willing to protect his scummates including summit even if it meant taking on pressure. Bozo if you recall I believe you recruited me then because I had avoided voting for you guys at all and only hopped on summit when I had to.

Yes, that is true, but you were the traitor, so voting for one of us D1 would not have been a good way to let us know you were on our team. Also, you never voted for ghug D2, my thought was that you may have been leaving yourself the option to help save ghug if an opportunity presented itself, but that you would not want to make it too obvious you were voting to save him.

Why did you choose not to vote for ghug or Bonatogether? Were you online until EOD, or did you leave after your last post 15 minutes before EOD?

[bozotheclown]

Hmmm, there is definitely less town substance to EMC's posting than I'm used to. Maybe Chaqa is right.

I’m 2/2 so far this game

You were 2/2 to start M62 as well.

[Donny Dude]

Sorry to have cross posted this with speculation that you may be scum, but considering that, I could not help but wonder if you could be pocketing me.

Why are you apologizing bozo, that is just weird.
I have a question for you to consider Bozo.
I know you think I got caught on wagons, but do you think scum Donny let ghug or any of his scummates die just that easily? I think I proved scum me in m60 was perfectly willing to protect his scummates including summit even if it meant taking on pressure. Bozo if you recall I believe you recruited me then because I had avoided voting for you guys at all and only hopped on summit when I had to.

Yes, that is true, but you were the traitor, so voting for one of us D1 would not have been a good way to let us know you were on our team. Also, you never voted for ghug D2, my thought was that you may have been leaving yourself the option to help save ghug if an opportunity presented itself, but that you would not want to make it too obvious you were voting to save him.

Why did you choose not to vote for ghug or Bonatogether? Were you online until EOD, or did you leave after your last post 15 minutes before EOD?

Good point.
I honestly had ghug as a null and the only thing from Ghug's posts that had tipped me off was his reaction to jamiet. For Bona, it was the wagon that felt off to me. I was on the whole time through eod, so there. Honestly Bozo I am not trying to pocket you at all. But you have been a difficult read for me in that you seem to stick to your ideas, but they disagree with the gamestate I am seeing. I think that your posts look townier but I don't know if it is because we are seeing more similar on it or if you are trying to pocket me. I think if forced to answer have you in the one category below Chaqa and maniac which is different but is prob town with you being a null.

[celaph]

##vote hb

if hb is scum then worcej is scum

Why?

wait I screwed up I mean hr.

Can you explain your reasoning for HR being scum in that case?

[celaph]

Here's an interesting question. There are three cases:

1) He's the cop.
2) He's a non-cop town.
3) He's a goon.

Construct motivations and mental states for each case for his total reactions (eod2 vote/demurral about being cop/lack of scan results at eon). When doing the third one, remember there's a scumchat thread to help him.

1)
He kneejerk reacted to a hard claim that he knew was fake. He didn't realize he tied the wagons with under 60 seconds to play or just didn't care because he knew he was voting mafia 100%.
He doesn't realize or doesn't want to acknowledge that doing so completely blew his cover and is playing coy with an open secret; or else he doesn't like us bossing him around.

2)
He's a madman who called bullshit on a hard claim Cop with no special info to tip his hand, and either didn't realize he tied the wagons or didn't care.
He isn't the Cop so he doesn't want to lie about being the Cop. He likely didn't mean to imply that he is Cop.
He didn't appreciate the importance of playing ball with fake scans, or didn't want to be bossed around into doing it.

3)
<snipped>

1 > 3 >>>>>>> 2 in order of likelihood just from his own reactions IMO.

But the game state really doesn't make sense for him to be Cop.

I disagree with both your characterization of (2) and your likelihood ratings.

Starting with the former, I don't think it's unreasonable for town to call BS on claims like that. There was reasonable suspicion on BB before his claim (why did he send a preemptive defense?) and the timing of the claim was weird as there were two wagons ahead of him. The claim was weird and my immediate reaction was that it was fake. If you want a more concrete example, think back to when I called out HR last game D5. My concern here is that the play doesn't feel thought through. He hasn't attempted to bait the NK and he tied the D2 vote up.

I find cop almost impossible unless he literally has no useful information. To be effectively outed while having mechanical clears on one or multiple people and not share them. That's just way bolder than I would play.

Ultimately, I would probably say that the likelihood is 3>2>>>1. .

[damo666]

@celaph as cop with no useful info why not just say so?

[celaph]

I think the greatest argument against me being scum is that there doesn't exist a world where I'd agree to Vecna NK, especially when he's townreading me lol

I hate that this is your greatest argument for why you're not scum. You can't find a single post, vote, or interaction that is more easily explained by town emc than scum emc.

[celaph]

@celaph as cop with no useful info why not just say so?

You can probably build an argument around scum seeing no reads and voting to kill someone else. It's a weak argument, but if I concede this point that cop without info still claims, then I've furthered my overall point that HB is not cop. Think of it like a conservative estimation.

[celaph]

Scenario A only needs two mafia online to do it. emc and Donny insta-reacted to rivera dying. Makes you think.

I was actually trying to get some emails out towards eod for college tuition to get paid. Eden you think scum saw that and flipped to rivera in less than a minute in their qt.

Correction More than one minute and less than two since HB's post is at :58. I don't have seconds enabled if that is a thing.
Sorry emc wanted to get that out quick. I will format it better if you want.

Looking at settings I don't think there is a way to automatically display seconds, but you can get that info. Quote the post in question. At the top there should be a line in brackets that says something like:

quote="Hamilton Brian" post_id=208100 time=1610067520 user_id=293

The number given as time is a unix time and can be easily converted into more comprehensible formats online. In this case, we see that HB posted that at :58:40 giving scum a full ~80 seconds to respond. I don't actually think the precise number of seconds matters that much, but if it ever does in the future, now you have it.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ahoy. I see from the Bot that Rdrivera was killed.

RIP, Rdrivera.

I also see people voting Hamilton Brian so I assume someone else has claimed Cop?

I'll go and catch up (I haven't read any of today).

[Jamiet99uk]

Is this stage 4 or are you just tying again?

Sr as he 4 is dolce the game.

Solve

What the fuck is this cryptic bs?

[Jamiet99uk]

I am so shook that HB is not the Cop. My worldview just exploded.

Tad surprised at that NK.

Speak HamB, why the brain vote?

Anybody yet spot the differences between HBs list and previous reads. On phone and find it too difficult.

@Bunny anything to say?

I have yet to even find another list to compare. Maybe from like Day 1. But you'd never be able to sort out hidden cop scans from that without rereading his whole ISO. And why put us through all that rigamarole if he's really the Cop? If he were, it wasn't exactly a secret.

He never claimed to be the cop.

[Jamiet99uk]

I only really see two plausible scenarios here:

A) The scum were online at the deadline, saw HB's post where he didn't provide any fake reports and rapidly switched their kill to rdrivera (possibly because his fake reports *could* have been legit, which looks good for Jamie & Damo)

B) The scum never intended to kill HB, which really makes no sense unless they knew he wasn't the cop. Which, well, has a very different conclusion.

What about:
C) They expected the Doc to save HB?

[Jamiet99uk]

To add on, my brain is telling me that this could have been an attempt to out the cop by a scum hb.

I'm starting to think that Vecna's gut react that HB was trying to tie the wagons is right, and that we just read something else into it because of course we did, mafia would never be so blatant.

##vote hb

if hb is scum then worcej is scum

Huh? Why does HB's alignment prove Worcej's alignment?

[Jamiet99uk]

I think the greatest argument against me being scum is that there doesn't exist a world where I'd agree to Vecna NK, especially when he's townreading me lol

Do you expect us to believe that you're such a forceful voice in the Scum QT that you'd over-rule your scum team-mates and veto the kill on Vecna even if they strongly wanted to cut him down? And that they'd listen to you?

I can't buy that.

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE EMC based on what I've seen up to that. Bear with me as I've still got about four pages...

[Jamiet99uk]

I only really see two plausible scenarios here:

A) The scum were online at the deadline, saw HB's post where he didn't provide any fake reports and rapidly switched their kill to rdrivera (possibly because his fake reports *could* have been legit, which looks good for Jamie & Damo)

B) The scum never intended to kill HB, which really makes no sense unless they knew he wasn't the cop. Which, well, has a very different conclusion.

Scenario A only needs two mafia online to do it. emc and Donny insta-reacted to rivera dying. Makes you think.

Incorrect.

Scenario (A) only needs one Mafia online to do it, not two.

I've been in scumteams where there was a general consensus discussion but only a single member of the Mafia team actually placed the "Mafia Vote" in bold, to lock in the kill. That would then allow that person, alone, to change the kill if required due to any last-minute shenanigans.

[Jamiet99uk]

I need to go to bed.

I continue to scumread BunnyGo and I don't know how he claims to be "obvtown", he's not playing like his usual self at all. I scumread EMC.
I also have an increasing scumlean on Flubinator.

I continue to townread Hamilton Riot and Hellenic Brian and Aarodiddle.

I townlean President Eden though I am questioning if my initial strong townread on him was too strong. He's still in my town pool. I am now town-leaning on Bozo as I mentioned earlier, my read on him has definitely softened. Townleaning Celaph. I guess I have to mark Bonatogether as likely town also, because otherwise that EoD2 was ScumGhug v ScumBrain v Scum!Bonato and that just seems inplausible. Likewise Damo seems more likely town than not due to his voting.

I'm puzzled about Worcej. All through this long night he has made a lot of short one-sentence posts that don't seem to contribute much at all. The connection with Bozo I'm less sure of as I'm no longer scumreading Bozo.

Rdrivera and Chaqa are also people that exist.

Good luck and hopefully see you tomorrow.

I find it slightly odd that Jamie was not intrigued enough to stay up a few more minutes.

Part of me being calmer is about having more self-discipline. I knew that if I stayed up "a few more minutes" I would then have to stay online to wait for Tom's EoN message which would probably not appear for 7-10 minutes after the deadline because Tom is writing a novel, and then I'd stay awake either discussing the outcome of the flip, or shitposting in the God QT, and I'd still be awake after 2am and suffering the consequences this morning.

Instead, I shut down my computer the second after posting that message, was in bed 10 minutes later, and asleep not long after that. I slept quite well and was up fresh for a video call with my lovely best friend over coffee at 9am. I think I made the right choice.