MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

I only really see two plausible scenarios here:

A) The scum were online at the deadline, saw HB's post where he didn't provide any fake reports and rapidly switched their kill to rdrivera (possibly because his fake reports *could* have been legit, which looks good for Jamie & Damo)

B) The scum never intended to kill HB, which really makes no sense unless they knew he wasn't the cop. Which, well, has a very different conclusion.

Scenario A only needs two mafia online to do it. emc and Donny insta-reacted to rivera dying. Makes you think.

I also instantly reacted. If I'm you're top scum read why didn't you list my name there?

They reacted inside a minute, you reacted inside of five.

If you really want though,

##VOTE Fluminator

is fine by me.

[Donny Dude]

I only really see two plausible scenarios here:

A) The scum were online at the deadline, saw HB's post where he didn't provide any fake reports and rapidly switched their kill to rdrivera (possibly because his fake reports *could* have been legit, which looks good for Jamie & Damo)

B) The scum never intended to kill HB, which really makes no sense unless they knew he wasn't the cop. Which, well, has a very different conclusion.

Scenario A only needs two mafia online to do it. emc and Donny insta-reacted to rivera dying. Makes you think.

I was actually trying to get some emails out towards eod for college tuition to get paid. Eden you think scum saw that and flipped to rivera in less than a minute in their qt.

Correction More than one minute and less than two since HB's post is at :58. I don't have seconds enabled if that is a thing.
Sorry emc wanted to get that out quick. I will format it better if you want.

[aarodactyl]

##vote EMC

(this one's for you bunny)

[damo666]

I only really see two plausible scenarios here:

A) The scum were online at the deadline, saw HB's post where he didn't provide any fake reports and rapidly switched their kill to rdrivera (possibly because his fake reports *could* have been legit, which looks good for Jamie & Damo)

B) The scum never intended to kill HB, which really makes no sense unless they knew he wasn't the cop. Which, well, has a very different conclusion.

C) scum expected doctor to protect HB. Decided to kill him tomorrow.

Agree with this. Or he's scum.

[President Eden]

Scenario A only needs two mafia online to do it. emc and Donny insta-reacted to rivera dying. Makes you think.

I was actually trying to get some emails out towards eod for college tuition to get paid. Eden you think scum saw that and flipped to rivera in less than a minute in their qt.

Correction More than one minute and less than two since HB's post is at :58. I don't have seconds enabled if that is a thing.
Sorry emc wanted to get that out quick. I will format it better if you want.

I'm just playing off the theory that was posited and thinking through situations.

Fluminator really wants the credit for being online to see rivera post, and I would hate not to oblige him for his hard work in switching the kill. You're probably fine.

[Hellenic Riot]

Like the argument that they were "waiting out the doc" really makes no sense whatsoever - How would they have any better idea if it would be sure to work tomorrow than today? HB being "cop" was made clear N2. If they thought he was the cop, they'd shoot him regardless and if it took them two attempts to get it through, so be it.

So either it was a last second flip or they knew full well HB wasn't the cop... And I can only see the second being true if HB is scum.

[e.m.c^42]

Sorry emc wanted to get that out quick. I will format it better if you want.

Ah it's alright. Just wanted to let you know in case :D

[damo666]

I need to go to bed.

I continue to scumread BunnyGo and I don't know how he claims to be "obvtown", he's not playing like his usual self at all. I scumread EMC.
I also have an increasing scumlean on Flubinator.

I continue to townread Hamilton Riot and Hellenic Brian and Aarodiddle.

I townlean President Eden though I am questioning if my initial strong townread on him was too strong. He's still in my town pool. I am now town-leaning on Bozo as I mentioned earlier, my read on him has definitely softened. Townleaning Celaph. I guess I have to mark Bonatogether as likely town also, because otherwise that EoD2 was ScumGhug v ScumBrain v Scum!Bonato and that just seems inplausible. Likewise Damo seems more likely town than not due to his voting.

I'm puzzled about Worcej. All through this long night he has made a lot of short one-sentence posts that don't seem to contribute much at all. The connection with Bozo I'm less sure of as I'm no longer scumreading Bozo.

Rdrivera and Chaqa are also people that exist.

Good luck and hopefully see you tomorrow.

I find it slightly odd that Jamie was not intrigued enough to stay up a few more minutes.

[aarodactyl]

Like the argument that they were "waiting out the doc" really makes no sense whatsoever - How would they have any better idea if it would be sure to work tomorrow than today? HB being "cop" was made clear N2. If they thought he was the cop, they'd shoot him regardless and if it took them two attempts to get it through, so be it.

So either it was a last second flip or they knew full well HB wasn't the cop... And I can only see the second being true if HB is scum.

I just don't get why HB doesn't give reads there

[Hellenic Riot]

The fact HB didn't give fake reports despite that being pointed out he should do it if he wasn't cop also strongly inclines me to go with Scenario B.

[Hellenic Riot]

##vote Hamilton Brian

[damo666]

To add on, my brain is telling me that this could have been an attempt to out the cop by a scum hb.

I'm starting to think that Vecna's gut react that HB was trying to tie the wagons is right, and that we just read something else into it because of course we did, mafia would never be so blatant.

##vote hb

if hb is scum then worcej is scum

Why?

[e.m.c^42]

##vote Hamilton Brian

Townread more solid due to rivera being town, so ##vote hamilton

[aarodactyl]

The fact HB didn't give fake reports despite that being pointed out he should do it if he wasn't cop also strongly inclines me to go with Scenario B.

How hard is it to give fake reports though? Something is super weird here though.

This is just me spitballing but maybe HB purposely didn't give scans so they wouldn't be NKed? Is that like scenario D?

[aarodactyl]

The fact HB didn't give fake reports despite that being pointed out he should do it if he wasn't cop also strongly inclines me to go with Scenario B.

How hard is it to give fake reports though? Something is super weird here though.

This is just me spitballing but maybe HB purposely didn't give scans so they wouldn't be NKed? Is that like scenario D?

To clarify, it's way more likely to me that it's A or B.

[Hellenic Riot]

The fact HB didn't give fake reports despite that being pointed out he should do it if he wasn't cop also strongly inclines me to go with Scenario B.

How hard is it to give fake reports though? Something is super weird here though.

This is just me spitballing but maybe HB purposely didn't give scans so they wouldn't be NKed? Is that like scenario D?

That's suicidal play. How would he know that the scum would be online to make a last second switch if he isn't scum?

[President Eden]

HR is right. I could see trying to level the obvious N2 save by only shooting on N3, getting leveled, and then only getting the kill on N4. I can't see how they shot elsewhere unless they knew HB wasn't Cop.

I know y'all hate nightkill analysis, but it's worth pointing out that by the time he died, Vecna was not softing a power role anymore, and while he was getting widely townread, there were several other people that looked very good from EOD2. Vec was the only one I remember calling into question HB's motive as actually being to tie the vote. (If other people did, then I'll happily take a reminder here.) I don't think they would single out Vec to shoot just because of that, but if HB is mafia then I would certainly expect that to be a tiebreaker between the various obvtowns from EOD2.

[Donny Dude]

What are the chances he forgot to include it?
I don't think there is a strong chance but just thinking.

[aarodactyl]

The fact HB didn't give fake reports despite that being pointed out he should do it if he wasn't cop also strongly inclines me to go with Scenario B.

How hard is it to give fake reports though? Something is super weird here though.

This is just me spitballing but maybe HB purposely didn't give scans so they wouldn't be NKed? Is that like scenario D?

That's suicidal play. How would he know that the scum would be online to make a last second switch if he isn't scum?

Fair point. I'm just really thrown by this.

[President Eden]

Take my axe until he answers for himself, at least.

##VOTE Hamilton Brian