MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

I don't want to shoot this list today.

aarodactyl
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
Donny Dude
Fluminator
ghug
Jamiet99uk

Some of these people are stronger than just "today," some are not.

I don't want to join the worcej wagon yet because I don't have a strong position on him either way, and I'd like to see if something else can happen. If it's ghug vs worcej then I think worcej is the better flip, but I honestly only have worcej at null here.

This is super hedgey

I don't know what I think about you yet. Of course it's hedgey. I'm gonna stand by whatever final vote I make.

[celaph]

Overall, I'm surprised how little interest there is in a Vecna wagon. I'm glad his posts are starting to pick up, but I think there are worse wagons out there gathering more attention.

That's where they've begun to shift in my opinion. We can all have "lost weekends" and bounce back. Interested in who you think the worse wagons are.

For now I'll ##vote emc because I want to hear more from him.

So this is interesting. EMC has come up a few times. I had them as null/Tier 3 but I also seem to recall that they play a sharper game. So why not this one? What specifically would you like to know from them? If not EMC, who's your second choice and why?

My general sense on EMC is that they've made a bunch of smaller comments yet I have a very poor sense of where they actually stand on many issues besides ghug who they're voting for. It feels like they've managed to talk a lot without saying much. Specifically, I would like to see the tier list they promised yesterday. Also, perhaps EMC's dump style is rather atypical, but I don't see anything like he promised near EoD1.

[worcej]

##unvote

What changed for you Bona to unvoting from Worcej?

I prefer there to be a tie heading into EoD.

Why do you want it to be tied going into EoD?

[celaph]

I'll be back in an hour or so and I'll do my best to make it back again by EoD, but I'm not sure that I can.

Overall, I'm surprised how little interest there is in a Vecna wagon. I'm glad his posts are starting to pick up, but I think there are worse wagons out there gathering more attention.

For now I'll ##vote emc because I want to hear more from him.

Maybe you should try telling people why im a good wagon

I'm not confident enough in my ability to be around at EoD to try and wrangle support at the moment. I'm also hoping that your recent activity is indicative of what is to come.

[worcej]

##unvote

worcej townlike in recent posts

I've been town the entire time!

[bozotheclown]

If you were following we have a pretty long interaction that make feel that is possible he reacted that way as town. I also liked his analysis on Bona and want to see if he would vote for him or was just throwing shade and not following (something I think is a scumtell from him).
All in all, he is still on my scum list, with Bona and Celaph and Brain as a distant forth.
I have few solid townreads (Jamiet, Damo, Eden and Aaro) and this is worrying me.

Am I reading this right?

You're top 4 scum list from most to least scummy would be:
HR
Bona
Me (Celaph)
Brain

Care to explain what why I'm the third scummiest person this game?

Mostly because of your explanation for your vote moves on EOD1. I also don't get the same town feeling I had on you last game even playing only one day and one night.

Obviously not enough to be voting you, but why are you so upset with my read?

I don't see any potential scum motivation for celaph to move his vote from ND to Maniac when he did regardless of ND's alignment. If ND was scum, there was no reason to look like he was saving ND after bussing him. If ND was town, there was no reason to jump to a wagon that was about to flip town.

[Fluminator]

Celaph plays in a way that's simultaneously useful for town and easily replicatable as scum. Maybe I should adopt that strategy.

[worcej]

worcej wagon getting too big for your liking?

The notorious naked voter calls out someone for a naked vote... lol

I have never knowingly voted naked. Probably.

Nice key word addition.

[bozotheclown]

Where did this random worcej wagon come from?

Why is the worcej wagon more random than the other wagons?

because it feels like its very prescribed. Its like we just do things out of repetition rather than intellect

I do not follow this explanation.

[Fluminator]

I'm going to sheep HR
##Vote Bona

[Hamilton Brian]

Celaph plays in a way that's simultaneously useful for town and easily replicatable as scum. Maybe I should adopt that strategy.

Because you’re scum?

[brainbomb]

Why is the worcej wagon more random than the other wagons?

because it feels like its very prescribed. Its like we just do things out of repetition rather than intellect

I do not follow this explanation.

That might be your fualt.

It means that trying to eliminate ND, Worcej is habitual and more just a trend than it is about anything resembling solving.

[bozotheclown]

All D1 subs are scum (according to bozo)

This is some surprisingly bad math from you. If you read what I said, I did not imply the probability of a player asking for a sub D1 was 1.0.

I know that. I was just being reductive because I don't really like the argument. I'm pretty sure this case of ND subbing out is pretty NAI.

The last 3 D1 subs were scum, and the last time ND was scum he asked for a sub after almost getting DKed D1. Based on these facts, I think the probability ND was scum is significantly higher than 0.25, and therefore not NAI.

[brainbomb]

donnys posts on P113 come from a town inquisitive mindset

[President Eden]

I'm still working through the Bona/HR/rivera thing. Haven't done a full reread of what HR asked, and I'm kinda sleepy so it's going slow.
I'm seeing what HR is talking about re: Bona not addressing others scumreading him this time, though. There is a marked difference.
I haven't finished and I haven't worked through how these conclusions should change my reads, except that I feel worse about Bona and better about HR. I guess the logical continuation is to feel better about rivera too.

I'll post what I have.

Tier 1 Don't Shoot: aarodactyl, celaph, Jamiet99uk
Tier 2 Don't Shoot Yet: bozotheclown, Chaqa, Donny Dude, Fluminator, ghug
Tier 3 Could Shoot: BunnyGo, damo666, Hamilton Brian, Vecna, worcej
Tier 4 FIRE FIRE FIRE!: brainbomb, e.m.c^42
Intentionally Left Off: Bonatogether, Hellenic Riot, rdrivera2005

aarodactyl -- Earnest, solving. Loved the comment about not being as worried about getting it right this time around.

bozotheclown -- I'm not sure how to read him well, but my impression of his solving efforts today is that he's town, like in M62. I see the same emphasis on certain meta trends. I struggle to follow some of his reasoning, but I struggled with that as a GM in M62 as well.

brainbomb -- Starting to think this guy is mafia. I don't get how his view of the game is evolving. He just kind of throws shade all over the place without committing himself with a vote.

BunnyGo -- Where the hell did this guy go? I didn't perceive his return last night to be impactful. Real life is what it is, but he just doesn't seem overly concerned about figuring this out.

celaph -- Several posts are showing very detailed consideration of the thinking behind other players' posts. Examination of ghug was very insightful and nuanced.

Chaqa -- Still think he's town, but I think all the people in Tier 1 have earned their spot more. Love the pressure on emc. Don't love the apparent belief that ghug slipped.

damo666 -- Not really sure how to read this guy, he's been in the background for me.

Donny Dude -- I see in the bot that he's back even as I type this, I was about to say that he seemed to have dropped off. I like the push on bozo even if I'm tentatively putting bozo in tier 2; I like that he has an idea of how bozo is supposed to be playing as either alignment and that he's applying that idea to what he's seeing.

e.m.c^42 -- Like brainbomb, I don't really get how emc's views have been evolving. He's been on the periphery following onto fairly random wagons, and I'm not seeing those efforts coalesce into reads on people.

Fluminator -- I thought Durga was very townie. Fluminator's been not all that involved since replacing in. I'm giving the slot a pass for today based on my townread of Durga and the unexpected nature of Fluminator subbing in, but I expect more from tomorrow.

ghug -- Hated the worcej vote, but ever since we fought I've liked where he's been reads wise. I think both aaro and celaph made insightful observations about similarities between ghug's play in this game and in M62 that have sold me that he's town.

Hamilton Brian -- Another player who's mostly just been kinda here that I've had trouble getting a good bead on.

Jamiet99uk -- Probably my strongest townread at this point. I disagree with the ghug slip theory, but I think Jamie's insistence on it makes him very town.

Vecna -- Posting today seems to match his previous town games much more. I buy the idea that RL distractions kept him away. I'm told that his town and mafia games are meaningfully divergent in tone and demeanor, and he seems similar to what I saw in M62, so I suppose that means he should be townread. Still, I'm leaving him in my nulls group until I see something that I like or I start seeing townreads on him from people I trust.

worcej -- Null, but seems earnest. Not as punchy as last game, but I certainly accept his explanation for why.

[Fluminator]

Seriously Eden if you're going to be that much of a self-righteous prick then I don't know what else to say. I spent over half an hour engaging with your stupid essay in considerable detail and now I think you're just trying to upset me on purpose.

Go fuck yourself.

Hmmm, normally I townread Jamiet for showing emotion, but this doesn't scream the town vibes enough for me to rule him as town. He is playing eerily similar to last game I feel.

[bozotheclown]

To add to this, I recall ND almost missing the deadline to confirm his sign up.

I do not see why this is relevant since ND posted at 2 different times D1. His last post, 16 hours after his first 3, clearly indicates he was aware his absence would look suspicious.

I’m saying it’s pretty clear to me that ND signed up and then decided he wasn’t super interested. And that happened before the game started

I still do not get the part about him not being interested based on his posts. I believe I only posted twice in the signup thread, and my posts are probably nearly identical.

[aarodactyl]

I do not see why this is relevant since ND posted at 2 different times D1. His last post, 16 hours after his first 3, clearly indicates he was aware his absence would look suspicious.

I’m saying it’s pretty clear to me that ND signed up and then decided he wasn’t super interested. And that happened before the game started

I still do not get the part about him not being interested based on his posts. I believe I only posted twice in the signup thread, and my posts are probably nearly identical.

ND was by far the last person to confirm, to the point where Tom actually asked if anyone had a way to contact them.

[brainbomb]

My town is:
Fluminator (Full moon)
Aaro (Half moon)
chaqa (Harvest moon)
Jamie (Fingernail moon)
Eden (shocking Eclipse!!!)
rivera (fading new moon)
damo (tinfoiling he blew up the moon)
worcej (Blood moon)

Null
Vecna
HR
Bozo
Donny
Celaph
emc

Scum
HB
ghug

[Jamiet99uk]

Seriously Eden if you're going to be that much of a self-righteous prick then I don't know what else to say. I spent over half an hour engaging with your stupid essay in considerable detail and now I think you're just trying to upset me on purpose.

Go [redacted] yourself.

Hmmm, normally I townread Jamiet for showing emotion, but this doesn't scream the town vibes enough for me to rule him as town. He is playing eerily similar to last game I feel.

Why did you suddenly pick out this post?