MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

Where did this random worcej wagon come from?

Why is the worcej wagon more random than the other wagons?

because it feels like its very prescribed. Its like we just do things out of repetition rather than intellect

[aarodactyl]

I understand the ghug and Bozo voters.

Worcej voters... why?

All D1 subs are scum (according to bozo)

This is some surprisingly bad math from you. If you read what I said, I did not imply the probability of a player asking for a sub D1 was 1.0.

I know that. I was just being reductive because I don't really like the argument. I'm pretty sure this case of ND subbing out is pretty NAI.

[brainbomb]

ghug is frozen at this point. Like he may as well post tiktoks asking if we wanna build a snowman

[bozotheclown]

Oh seriously Bozo not this shit again. Scumleaning Worcej because ND subbed out is silly, but making him your top "scumread" and listing this as one of your main reasons is downright ridiculous.

So you dont think the pattern that Bozo listed is at least some reason for suspicion?

ND has a clear pattern of flaking as scum D1 and making excuses, only to pick up later on. He displayed that here. As town he is nearly always hyper involved.

Why does this not at least entice you slightly?

I have a general hatred of any argument that goes "Oh, XX subbed out, they must have been scum".

Also, I remember games where ND has played very well as scum, and put in a lot of effort. He did so in my Toyshop game where he survived until the end, and there was a game a while before that where he spent multiple phases setting up a mis-kill on me in a way that was absolutely infuriating to be on the receiving end of, but he certainly invested in his work.

That was M39, and you are using it to contrast ND as scum with this game, but here are all of ND's D1 posts from M39:

Just got out of work. Will catch up tonight. Tom's only reason for voting me is because he doesn't like my politics. That's scummy and personally I think he is a garbage person. Anyway catch you later! I leave you with this little anchor.

I'm sure you do brain but you are a idiot. Anyway talk to you all ltrs.

Honestly, I haven't had much time for this, but I am really trying to get into it today. If all the 1st week of school paperwork i have cooperates. Anyway, Tom is pretty scummy has been from the start. My wager is on him. ##VOTE TOM

[celaph]

I'll be back in an hour or so and I'll do my best to make it back again by EoD, but I'm not sure that I can.

Overall, I'm surprised how little interest there is in a Vecna wagon. I'm glad his posts are starting to pick up, but I think there are worse wagons out there gathering more attention.

For now I'll ##vote emc because I want to hear more from him.

[bozotheclown]

To add to this, I recall ND almost missing the deadline to confirm his sign up.

What does this matter in any of this? If he confirmed closer to gamestart he would have had a much clearer idea of his participation possibilities, no?

He seemed very disinterested in the game

I checked the sign up thread and here are ND's 2 posts there:

1. Bonatogether
2. President Eden
3. Durga
4. Chaqa
5. Aarodactyl
6. Celaph
7. Rdrivera2005
8. Vecna
9. Jamiet99uk
10. damo666
11. Hellenic Riot
12. ND

Yeah I confirm sorry

How are you inferring disinterest from these 2 posts? I do not see how signing up and confirming looks like disinterest.

[President Eden]

you were furious with ghug when durga was still around PE. Was that just to argue wth durga or was there substance to the idea that ghug is stifling your little vote everyone imaginable masquerade?

I'm not voting people for its own sake, so I don't really understand the question. I was legitimately mad at ghug if he were town because it was unbelievable to me that he would openly call the wagon he was sitting on a bad wagon while not trying to find another one.

I'm not going to take credit for what happened since, but he's been looking around for wagons he actually thinks are mafia ever since then. It's enough that I don't want to kill him today.

I can't speak for what Durga was thinking then, but I didn't have any issue with her.

How did you go from describing me as "hungry to sink my teeth into a wolf" to suspecting me (while still being too scared to vote me)?

[celaph]

If you were following we have a pretty long interaction that make feel that is possible he reacted that way as town. I also liked his analysis on Bona and want to see if he would vote for him or was just throwing shade and not following (something I think is a scumtell from him).
All in all, he is still on my scum list, with Bona and Celaph and Brain as a distant forth.
I have few solid townreads (Jamiet, Damo, Eden and Aaro) and this is worrying me.

Am I reading this right?

You're top 4 scum list from most to least scummy would be:
HR
Bona
Me (Celaph)
Brain

Care to explain what why I'm the third scummiest person this game?

Mostly because of your explanation for your vote moves on EOD1. I also don't get the same town feeling I had on you last game even playing only one day and one night.

Obviously not enough to be voting you, but why are you so upset with my read?

Actually just saw this so I'll respond before dipping.

I wouldn't say that I'm particularly upset -- though my tone has been misinterpreted that way in the past so it's understandable -- but more so curious about what I'm doing that is giving me the wrong impression.

[ghug]

I think it is time for Ireland to decimate these fuckers living in Kent and Alba

Erin go bragh!

[ghug]

I probably can't be around much more before EoD. Someone make a good wagon happen please.

##VOTE brain

[aarodactyl]

Hmmm. It's fairly strong evidence, but the holidays happened, and ND didn't just low post, he never posted following his disappearance, so I think it's fair to say it's different?

Look at his profile:

https://webdiplomacy.net/userprofile.php?userID=68782

Last online Friday 5 PM (EST).

I think he just ghosted.

To add to this, I recall ND almost missing the deadline to confirm his sign up.

I do not see why this is relevant since ND posted at 2 different times D1. His last post, 16 hours after his first 3, clearly indicates he was aware his absence would look suspicious.

I’m saying it’s pretty clear to me that ND signed up and then decided he wasn’t super interested. And that happened before the game started

[bozotheclown]

##vote ND

I guess bozo is town this game?

This is the problem right here when people do bad meta analysis so far apart - people put a bunch of value in it.

M39 was started on October 6 2018 - OVER 2 YEARS AGO.

I don't see why that matters much, I think ND would be more likely to change his scum meta if he had been scum more recently.

[bozotheclown]

Not to burst your bubble, but your theory is wrong. I was contacted before EOD and asked to enter at EOD because I was busy.

If this is true, it supports my theory that ND was deliberately subbed because it implies he requested a sub during D1, just like bo_sox in M62 and Durga in M61. The basis for this theory is that scum are more likely than town to request a sub D1 if they are not able to keep up because their low participation would have a more significant adverse effect on their team as scum than as town.

Do you realize that ND would enjoy the opportunity to play scum?

You're putting all your eggs in the basket that ND would sub out as scum, where ND would actually just lurk and stick around because he enjoys being scum.

In his last scum game, M49, he subbed out N1 as scum. In that game he was also a significant wagon D1 and just avoided the DK.

[bozotheclown]

bozo EOD is bizarre

Are you directing this comment to me or are you question my D1 EOD? If you are questioning my D1 EOD, can you be more specific?

[Hamilton Brian]

Care to elaborate on the "But..." here? What in my posts feels scummy?

Just an overall sense of "contributing but are they really?" I think the more you post probably the better you seem to me. I felt the posts up until the last few have been "vacant." Hence the Tier 3 Ambivalent pile.

[Hamilton Brian]

I don’t want to give away too much, but I firmly believe in shopping your vote around in a manner that’s outwardly erratic and unpredictable throughout the day.

I like this. Not in a way that makes you seem more town to me, because you're already in Tier 1, but I like the style. A strategy I should learn to use in future games?

[President Eden]

brainbomb, can you explain the evolution of your suspects this game? You seem not to like my scattershot style, but your reads are similarly all over the place.

[Vecna]

I'll be back in an hour or so and I'll do my best to make it back again by EoD, but I'm not sure that I can.

Overall, I'm surprised how little interest there is in a Vecna wagon. I'm glad his posts are starting to pick up, but I think there are worse wagons out there gathering more attention.

For now I'll ##vote emc because I want to hear more from him.

Maybe you should try telling people why im a good wagon

[bozotheclown]

I need to get back to work, but I have a quick question for everyone (except ghug). What's your opinion on Donny? I think ghug has been town reading them, and I think a few people have been scumreading him, but I don't remember who (and I'm already playing too much during work).

I regard Donny as a mild townlean. Today, I like some of the questions he is asking people, and I like him pressing Bozo for reads on the basis of his observation that scum!Bozo's reads don't evolve much.

I don't know why Donny would expect my reads to change much from D1 to today, especially since I did not have any significant reads D1, unless it is because I thought ND was the best DK option D1 and I think worcej is the best DK option today.

[Hamilton Brian]

Overall, I'm surprised how little interest there is in a Vecna wagon. I'm glad his posts are starting to pick up, but I think there are worse wagons out there gathering more attention.

That's where they've begun to shift in my opinion. We can all have "lost weekends" and bounce back. Interested in who you think the worse wagons are.

For now I'll ##vote emc because I want to hear more from him.

So this is interesting. EMC has come up a few times. I had them as null/Tier 3 but I also seem to recall that they play a sharper game. So why not this one? What specifically would you like to know from them? If not EMC, who's your second choice and why?