MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Hellenic Riot]

*Nothing like Donny's scumgame

[damo666]

Would you be interested in hearing me repeat the excuses/reasons as to why ive only been fluffposting and have not caught up? Its pretty clear to me that unless I proceed to quote the entire thread and actually catch-up youre just going to have that opinion (which is fine for now).

You want me to interrogate you what exactly you mean with scummy participation? I think ive already figured out your alignment, so im not that interested atm.

I remove one asterisk for this response.

Achievement unlocked: bully damo into backing down

[President Eden]

Because it's D2? Because HR made some decent posts today that made me feel that I might be wrong about him?
I don't think tunneling just to prove I can yell louder then him is the way to play as town.

I quite plainly did not ask you to do that. Your filter for day 2 sounds very convinced that HR is mafia up until this post of mine. I hardly think it unreasonable to expect you to push a clear mafia suspect.

What of his posts changed your mind?

If you were following we have a pretty long interaction that make feel that is possible he reacted that way as town. I also liked his analysis on Bona and want to see if he would vote for him or was just throwing shade and not following (something I think is a scumtell from him).
All in all, he is still on my scum list, with Bona and Celaph and Brain as a distant forth.
I have few solid townreads (Jamiet, Damo, Eden and Aaro) and this is worrying me.

Can you go into detail as to which posts made you think he might be town and why? I see that you interacted with him day 2 but I don't see where you clearly come to the conclusion that you're saying.

[Chaqa]

Oh, and I tend to believe Vecna was roleblocked.

I don't think there's much reason to put the roleblock on your kill target in this setup.

Basically:

Kill shuts down Doctor and Cop unless Doctor self-saves.
Roleblock shuts down Doctor or Cop.

So if you use them separately you're doubling chance of minimizing town information. Any competent scumteam would spread them out for the first night or two.

How likely do you think it is for the Doctor to self-save night 1 here?

Hmmmm.

Depends on who the Doctor is, really.

If it were someone under suspicion (say worcej, ghug, HR, etc.) I would say unlikely.

If it's someone who is not under suspicion (say brain, myself, damo, etc.) I would say likely.

It's probably a bit WIFOM-y overall.

[Fluminator]

*Nothing like Donny's scumgame

Do you still think this ghug?

[Vecna]

Oh, and I tend to believe Vecna was roleblocked.

I don't think there's much reason to put the roleblock on your kill target in this setup.

Basically:

Kill shuts down Doctor and Cop unless Doctor self-saves.
Roleblock shuts down Doctor or Cop.

So if you use them separately you're doubling chance of minimizing town information. Any competent scumteam would spread them out for the first night or two.

How likely do you think it is for the Doctor to self-save night 1 here?

They targetted RHK. If their kill failed, it would be pret-ty obvious what happened.

Ill agree with Chaqa that doubling your chance to interrupt the cop is worth having a failed kill and discovering the doctor.

Assuming the scumteam would use that sort of reasoning though....

[Hamilton Brian]

I think today should flip either ghug or bona, really.

I am trying to understand your reading of either one of these. Besides just calling them scum, or at least that is how you presented ghug, why are you thinking either of them?

[rdrivera2005]

1. Anyone who wants to talk to me about ego should look at this guy.
2. Like this post.

Agree with Ghug on both points.

But want to see if HR would go all the way.

##vote Bona

I mean, sure. Bona has posted since that post and yet again completely avoided interacting with people scumreading him.

##vote Bona

I'm interested that you think I'd ever refuse a direct challenge to vote someone I'm scumreading though

Maybe you don't want to buss Bona?

[President Eden]

Basically:

Kill shuts down Doctor and Cop unless Doctor self-saves.
Roleblock shuts down Doctor or Cop.

So if you use them separately you're doubling chance of minimizing town information. Any competent scumteam would spread them out for the first night or two.

How likely do you think it is for the Doctor to self-save night 1 here?

Hmmmm.

Depends on who the Doctor is, really.

If it were someone under suspicion (say worcej, ghug, HR, etc.) I would say unlikely.

If it's someone who is not under suspicion (say brain, myself, damo, etc.) I would say likely.

It's probably a bit WIFOM-y overall.

Sure. The point I was going to make was that it's a significantly worse outcome if the Doctor self-saves and is shot than if the roleblock is wasted by not hitting the Cop and letting the Cop get a scan. And the odds of randomly picking the Cop out to roleblock are really low, and it strikes me that on night 1, the Doctor would be appreciably likely to self-save, so you'd need to be several times more confident than random that you have the Cop figured out to use the roleblock in the way you describe and chance the Doctor self-save.

Putting exact numbers to this is difficult, but without putting exact numbers to it, I think as mafia I would be more concerned about Doctor self-saving than about missing a chance to roleblock Cop.

It's enough, combined with the shaky start, that I actually think I want to shoot Vecna here. But I'm open to being talked down from it.

[Vecna]

I suppose there is some validity in flipping worcej for more info on Day 1, but i'm not sure I'm there yet.

I have a lingering suspicion EMC is scum, also.

talk to me about this

[President Eden]

Basically:

Kill shuts down Doctor and Cop unless Doctor self-saves.
Roleblock shuts down Doctor or Cop.

So if you use them separately you're doubling chance of minimizing town information. Any competent scumteam would spread them out for the first night or two.

How likely do you think it is for the Doctor to self-save night 1 here?

They targetted RHK. If their kill failed, it would be pret-ty obvious what happened.

Ill agree with Chaqa that doubling your chance to interrupt the cop is worth having a failed kill and discovering the doctor.

Assuming the scumteam would use that sort of reasoning though....

"Doubling your chance" from what, 7% to 14%? The baseline return on that is still quite low. Again you'd have to be pretty confident you had the Cop or that the Doc wouldn't self-save.

Obviously you can start leveling here too and add in the value of throwing shade on you after you were already not your usual self day 1.

[Chaqa]

I think today should flip either ghug or bona, really.

I am trying to understand your reading of either one of these. Besides just calling them scum, or at least that is how you presented ghug, why are you thinking either of them?

Ghug due to the potential scumslip and his general demeanor seeming scummy to me, such as sitting on the low-info ND wagon all of Day 1.

Bona due to what someone (PE?) had said about him playing a bit different from last game, and not interacting with his scumreads. It could be nothing, though. I'm unsure at this point and likely won't have a chance to reread him before EoD.

[Vecna]

I agree with Durga

##Vote Donny
This is his scum game. I don't know his town game tbf, but I think he's the best shot.

When have you ever even played with scum donny? When has Durga?

That was the one I was a losing third party and Donny buddied me successfully and thus I threw the game for him because I liked him.

Oh yeah, now I remember. He totally buddied me as well that game. (but then again, the entire scumteam did I guess, minus Bozo)

[Hellenic Riot]

Agree with Ghug on both points.

But want to see if HR would go all the way.

##vote Bona

I mean, sure. Bona has posted since that post and yet again completely avoided interacting with people scumreading him.

##vote Bona

I'm interested that you think I'd ever refuse a direct challenge to vote someone I'm scumreading though

Maybe you don't want to buss Bona?

Then why would I scumread him at all?

[Fluminator]

Actually nm, I read his iso ##Unvote

I think we should kill HB or HR tbh

[damo666]

Actually nm, I read his iso ##Unvote

I think we should kill HB or HR tbh

What about Hworcej?

[Hellenic Riot]

I don't get the impression you've read anything I've posted, Flum, so getting me feels all too much like you're just concerned I scumread Durga rather than that you have any belief whatsoever that I'm actually scum.

[Chaqa]

How likely do you think it is for the Doctor to self-save night 1 here?

Hmmmm.

Depends on who the Doctor is, really.

If it were someone under suspicion (say worcej, ghug, HR, etc.) I would say unlikely.

If it's someone who is not under suspicion (say brain, myself, damo, etc.) I would say likely.

It's probably a bit WIFOM-y overall.

Sure. The point I was going to make was that it's a significantly worse outcome if the Doctor self-saves and is shot than if the roleblock is wasted by not hitting the Cop and letting the Cop get a scan. And the odds of randomly picking the Cop out to roleblock are really low, and it strikes me that on night 1, the Doctor would be appreciably likely to self-save, so you'd need to be several times more confident than random that you have the Cop figured out to use the roleblock in the way you describe and chance the Doctor self-save.

Putting exact numbers to this is difficult, but without putting exact numbers to it, I think as mafia I would be more concerned about Doctor self-saving than about missing a chance to roleblock Cop.

It's enough, combined with the shaky start, that I actually think I want to shoot Vecna here. But I'm open to being talked down from it.

As evidenced by last game (and other games), the Doctor is not really a big threat. If I were scum, I wouldn't care if my N1 kill got saved, because 75%+ of the time it's the doctor self-saving.

I'd be much more concerned, as scum, of the cop. Scum essentially doubles their chance to find/interfere with the cop by spreadng out the kill and RB.

[President Eden]

I don't want to shoot this list today.

aarodactyl
Bonatogether
celaph
Chaqa
Donny Dude
Fluminator
ghug
Jamiet99uk

Some of these people are stronger than just "today," some are not.

I don't want to join the worcej wagon yet because I don't have a strong position on him either way, and I'd like to see if something else can happen. If it's ghug vs worcej then I think worcej is the better flip, but I honestly only have worcej at null here.

[Hellenic Riot]

Why do you not want to get Bonatogether, PE?