MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

Bona being less active isn't a reason to look at him. Bona's 3/4 people reads list where he townread almost everyone on it, and then after I called him out on that he did the other quarter and scumread everyone on there (when he said he was dividing them by post count, not read strength) felt extremely disingenuous though. The fact that after I later called him out on this he dodged a response entirely and asked why he wasn't being hammered hasn't improved my feelings there.

Last game Bona intensely questioned everyone who ever scumread him. This game he's utterly ignored it. That's not something I'm content to just brush away as "less activity due to homework". That's a different thought process.

1. Anyone who wants to talk to me about ego should look at this guy.
2. Like this post.

Agree with Ghug on both points.

But want to see if HR would go all the way.

##vote Bona

[rdrivera2005]

It stresses me out, but it also helps me read people to the point that I've actively sought it out. Funny thing is I haven't been able to get scumread since I came back, and this is the first game where it hasn't been a goal at all.

I definitely remembered the helping me read more than the stress

Ok. Cuz apparently you are the lead wagon right now. I didn't actually remember that happening. You don't seem that stressed, but at the same time it doesn't feel like you're actually the lead wagon to me, so that's probably a wash.

I think I'll hold you to the helping-read part a bit though. Why should we shoot brainbomb today? I have trouble reading his alignment because I tend to baseline enjoy him as a player.

I used to be able to read brainbomb really well, cause he'd play super emotionally and I'm good at getting to the intentions behind emotions, but he's mellowed out considerably, and it made me get him wrong last game. The thing I'm seeing hehe is that he's not really trying to make anything happen himself. He jumped on HR yesterday after others started the wagon. He voted me today late, only after I'd called him out for fanning the flames and having previously scumread me but not voting for me. He voted Vecna once Vecna had a few votes. He voted HR once HR had a few votes. He voted rd, who only has one vote (from his top scumread, HR, no less, but he didn't really do it with the conviction of someone wanting to make something happen. I think town brain would care more about his ideas and scum brain would care more about knocking off good players where he sees opportunities.

I am starting to be worried in how much I agree with Ghug.

[rdrivera2005]

@PE how much of a madman is brainbomb? I'd love if this was brain calling out the entire scum team.

I'm not saying he did that, but I'm saying he would do that. It does kinda make me want to shoot one of them to find out...

I think I want to resolve this Hellenic Riot/rdrivera subplot today.

Hellenic Riot & rdrivera2005: How come y'all aren't whipping us to kill each other?

Because it's D2? Because HR made some decent posts today that made me feel that I might be wrong about him?
I don't think tunneling just to prove I can yell louder then him is the way to play as town.

[bozotheclown]

Here are ND's D1 post counts in his most recent games (I went back to include his 2 most recent known scum games):

M63 (?): 4
M62 (town): 77
M52 (town): 71
M51 (town): 20
M49 (scum): 12
M46 (3P): 35
M1007 (town): 123
M43 (town): 16
M42 (town): 59
M41 (town): 14
M1006 (town): 18
M40 (town): 57
M39 (scum): 3

I know D1 was over a holiday, but compare ND's last post to his last D1 post in his 2 most recent scum games:

M63:

I hope to be able to play some tomorrow I got alot going on tonight sry

M49:

Havent had much time this game. Hopefully will have more time later on

M39:

Honestly, I haven't had much time for this, but I am really trying to get into it today. If all the 1st week of school paperwork i have cooperates. Anyway, Tom is pretty scummy has been from the start. My wager is on him. ##VOTE TOM

[Vecna]

##vote ND

I guess bozo is town this game?

[Vecna]

##vote Worcej

[bozotheclown]

I think BunnyGo has been too busy posting in his Mafia QuickTopic to post in here.

Guys I think I actually caught him. Real quick, give me any games you can remember where BG was mafia. I have M61 and M62 that I'm compiling my data for right now.

I went back a few months and I only found useful data on BunnyGo from the last two games he’s played—M61 and M62—in both of which he was mafia.

TL;DR: Bunny stops posting in game threads at night when he's mafia. Just like he is doing now.

As mafia, the difference between BunnyGo’s posting at day and posting at night is dramatic. When BunnyGo is mafia, his posting drops off a cliff at night, at least early in the game. The obvious logical explanation for why this happens is that he’s busy communicating with his partners in the Mafia QuickTopic, and that there’s not a lot at stake for the mafia in the main thread at night in most games, since no one can vote. As the game progresses, BunnyGo’s nighttime posting activity reaches average player levels; it makes sense that it would rise here, since there are more happenings during the nights of later games, and there’s less communication in the QT due to fewer mafia players being alive. Here are some samples of post counts from recently completed games.

M62
Day 1: 166 posts, 7.6% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 3.8%)
Day 2: 48 posts, 2.9% (EPPV: 4.2%)
Day 3: 149 posts, 8.7% (EPPV: 4.8%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.4% (EPPV: 4%)
Night 2: 1 post, 0.2% (EPPV: 4.3%)

M61
Day 1: 102 posts, 9.1% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 5.6%)
Day 2: 41 posts, 4.6% (EPPV: 5.9%)
Day 3: 57 posts, 9.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Day 4: 79 posts, 7.7% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Day 5: 107 posts, 19.3% (EPPV: 10%)
Day 6: 95 posts, 18.5% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Day 7: 23 posts, 15.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.5% (EPPV: 5.6%)
Night 2: 9 posts, 5.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Night 3: 0 posts, 0% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Night 4: 23 posts, 16.4% (EPPV: 10%)
Night 5: 4 posts, 11.1% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Night 6: 13 posts, 18.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

[In the interest of full disclosure, I only found one town game, M60, and there are some anomalies I don’t understand. In it, BunnyGo was town, and was nightkilled at the end of Night 3. BunnyGo only posted on Night 1, where he was the lead poster. He did not post on Nights 2 or 3, which suggests that this might not be alignment-indicative behavior. However, half the players did not post on either night, which I found to be very strange as posting was not banned. I felt this game was too anomalous to include, but I would welcome someone who played M60 to explain. But because this was the only town game from within the past few months in which BunnyGo was able to post at night (he died day 1 in M58), I must acknowledge that I have no recent town games against which I can compare.]

With that said, there’s an obvious apparent explanation for why this behavior is alignment-indicative. We know from the M62 and M61 Mafia QTs that Bunny doesn’t stop playing at night on principle—he’s just busy in the mafia thread, not the game thread. I believe that’s where he is right now.

Besides M60 (and M59, which was terminated), I think BunnyGo's most recent town game where he was not a sub and survived past D1 was M53.

[Jamiet99uk]

Good morning, friends.

I have slept well but now I am back at work so I'll only be able to catch up here when I take a break for lunch, in about 90 minutes' time.

I am pleased to see that Ghug is the lead wagon, and that BunnyGo has turned up alive.

Proper catchup posts later, hopefully around 12:30 GMT.

[bozotheclown]

I feel that mafia would prefer a maniac death over killing nd/worcej. Bozo is scum, donny is town. there was a point where bozo wanted to kill ND so there wouldnt be a sub out, then someone else said ND was gonna be modkilled which had zero factual basis in reality.

there was a narrative to kill ND by some people who seemed scummy, and yet if ND / worcej is town then maybe scum is just ultra inexperienced and did nothing there.

ill reread aaaro, celaph and bozo tonight.

Why do you say the mafia would prefer a Maniac DK then conclude I am scum?

I did not want to DK ND to prevent a sub, I thought he would be a reasonable DK because he was allowing himself to be subbed by not meeting the voting requirement.

Not to burst your bubble, but your theory is wrong. I was contacted before EOD and asked to enter at EOD because I was busy.

If this is true, it supports my theory that ND was deliberately subbed because it implies he requested a sub during D1, just like bo_sox in M62 and Durga in M61. The basis for this theory is that scum are more likely than town to request a sub D1 if they are not able to keep up because their low participation would have a more significant adverse effect on their team as scum than as town.

[damo666]

##vote worcej

[Vecna]

I actually a theory on what happened

Durga and ND started out as scum together. Obviously that was not going to work out and result in unfun times, so ND just dipped out. Then when Worcej was the replacement Durga just went "fuck that shit".

[Vecna]

Like, this is probably the most simple way of connecting 2 very simple dots that could or could not be connected whatsoever. Im sort of proud that this is not a big conspiracy brain 2000 type of nonsense ive thought up for once.

Does it fit with how the stuff happened? Was drama actually brewing bigly in thread?

[Vecna]

Oh btw, I was roleblocked

[Vecna]

meh, reading the posts in the unhide topic, I probably oughta rethink my theory

[Jamiet99uk]

I don’t think Tom gave flavor names to the non-VT roles, so I don’t think there was anything for ghug to confuse. We’ve seen on Maniac’s flip that apparently VTs have flavor names, but weren’t informed of them—Maniac clearly had one, but I didn’t get one and I’m sure that Maniac didn’t either. It would be really strange for Tom to assign flavor names to all players but only tell them to the
non-VTs...

I knew ghug was claiming “Father Ghug, the Priest” from very early as an obvious
joke, and Godfather is the obvious punny continuation from that. I was vaguely hoping ghug was mafia and would fuck up his explanation, but since he didn’t, I think this is NAI.

However I think this makes Jamie one of my top town reads.
I also belatedly realized that BG would be an absolute madman to run this gambit as mafia, so BG is town as well.

Hercules, my friend, if you re-read the quote from Ghug that I included in my post, does it not seem to you that Ghug was very annoyed with BunnyGo, and not in fact in a calm or joking mood at all? His tone struck me as angry and tetchy. A strange time for jokes.

You got annoyed at him too. You don't believe there's a good reason for me to be annoyed?

Of course I think you were annoyed.
That's what I said.
That you were annoyed is the whole point of my comment to President Eden that you just quoted.
I think you were annoyed.
I think you were angry.
I think you were tetchy.
That is why I said that I thought that.

The fact that you were legitimately angry with BunnyGo is the reason I am not convinced that you were joking when you referred to your flavour name.

[brainbomb]

Where did this random worcej wagon come from?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie — ghug first coined the “Father Ghug The Godfather” bit almost a day before the post you quoted as being angry with BG. I don’t think there’s an inconsistency here. I hate to be a wet blanket, and I think ghug isn’t a bad shot, but I don’t think this is the silver bullet we were hoping for.

Why did he carry on saying he knew his flavour name when he was getting legitimately angry with Bunny's method of questioning?

[Jamiet99uk]

In terms of Jamie's poll I would say b, but highly dependent on other factors like if you scum/town read them independently of this info. Also, while I agree that PE's 70% number is correct in some sense, I think PRs tend to be worth >1 scum member so we should weigh the odds a bit.

It's clear from this element of Celaph's catch-up post, that said catch-up was done in somewhat of a vacuum, but without knowing more of Celaph's meta I'd be inclined to assign town points to that - because it implies Celaph is not overly worried about public perceptions (a nervous scum might keep checking back for new posts while catching up, to avoid making a mistake).

[Jamiet99uk]

##VOTE aaro cause I promised to tunnel him

I voted for Bunny at 10 hours into the day. That's within your 12 hours.

Didn't leave an impression sorry

You set Aaro a task and said you'd vote for him if he did not complete this task.

Then you slapped a vote on Aaro ostensibly on the basis of this previous challenge without bothering to check if Aaro had met the terms of your chalenge just because you wanted to sheep President Eden's vote?

That's another scum-notch for you, Ghug.

[Jamiet99uk]

scum ghug tends to fear me for some reason. Occasionally he hides from me and admits im scary. So far ghug hasnt really felt imposing on me. I dont feel as threatened as I usually do. I still think hes doing his routine where he treats the game like its his painting and nobody else gets to hold the brush.

HR feels lazier than usual. even in futility HR pushes usually feel informed by something and they dont die out. Theres been so little content in the rivera vs HR stuff im beginning to wonder if its w/w

Nobody fears you. That's like being afraid of skimmed milk.