MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

I think BunnyGo has been too busy posting in his Mafia QuickTopic to post in here.

Guys I think I actually caught him. Real quick, give me any games you can remember where BG was mafia. I have M61 and M62 that I'm compiling my data for right now.

I went back a few months and I only found useful data on BunnyGo from the last two games he’s played—M61 and M62—in both of which he was mafia.

TL;DR: Bunny stops posting in game threads at night when he's mafia. Just like he is doing now.

As mafia, the difference between BunnyGo’s posting at day and posting at night is dramatic. When BunnyGo is mafia, his posting drops off a cliff at night, at least early in the game. The obvious logical explanation for why this happens is that he’s busy communicating with his partners in the Mafia QuickTopic, and that there’s not a lot at stake for the mafia in the main thread at night in most games, since no one can vote. As the game progresses, BunnyGo’s nighttime posting activity reaches average player levels; it makes sense that it would rise here, since there are more happenings during the nights of later games, and there’s less communication in the QT due to fewer mafia players being alive. Here are some samples of post counts from recently completed games.

M62
Day 1: 166 posts, 7.6% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 3.8%)
Day 2: 48 posts, 2.9% (EPPV: 4.2%)
Day 3: 149 posts, 8.7% (EPPV: 4.8%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.4% (EPPV: 4%)
Night 2: 1 post, 0.2% (EPPV: 4.3%)

M61
Day 1: 102 posts, 9.1% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 5.6%)
Day 2: 41 posts, 4.6% (EPPV: 5.9%)
Day 3: 57 posts, 9.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Day 4: 79 posts, 7.7% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Day 5: 107 posts, 19.3% (EPPV: 10%)
Day 6: 95 posts, 18.5% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Day 7: 23 posts, 15.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.5% (EPPV: 5.6%)
Night 2: 9 posts, 5.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Night 3: 0 posts, 0% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Night 4: 23 posts, 16.4% (EPPV: 10%)
Night 5: 4 posts, 11.1% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Night 6: 13 posts, 18.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

[In the interest of full disclosure, I only found one town game, M60, and there are some anomalies I don’t understand. In it, BunnyGo was town, and was nightkilled at the end of Night 3. BunnyGo only posted on Night 1, where he was the lead poster. He did not post on Nights 2 or 3, which suggests that this might not be alignment-indicative behavior. However, half the players did not post on either night, which I found to be very strange as posting was not banned. I felt this game was too anomalous to include, but I would welcome someone who played M60 to explain. But because this was the only town game from within the past few months in which BunnyGo was able to post at night (he died day 1 in M58), I must acknowledge that I have no recent town games against which I can compare.]

With that said, there’s an obvious apparent explanation for why this behavior is alignment-indicative. We know from the M62 and M61 Mafia QTs that Bunny doesn’t stop playing at night on principle—he’s just busy in the mafia thread, not the game thread. I believe that’s where he is right now.

I like this theory.

[Hellenic Riot]

##vote rdrivera

Quite content to sit here

Shocked at the scum read from HR tbh, and I don't want to be his next tunnel victim I don't have the energy for that

Why are you shocked? I openly told you I thought you were scum yesterday. And given I made it quite clear that I scumread rdrivera more, I don't really see why you think I'd be tunnelling you here either.

I can't understand why you think I'm scum. Town!HR hasnt scum read town!me and you seem quite sure of it so I'm really confused

I stated why I think you're scum in my read. I'm not sure how to respond to the second sentence here - Have I really never incorrectly scumread you before? Guess that means I should increase my belief in that read . I'd hardly go so far as to say I'm "sure" of it, given it's only D2, but I'm not seeing anything to make me townread you at present.

What do you think of Durga's rd vote out of the gate?

Given she showed no inclination whatsoever to join me on him yesterday it's rather surprising

I said it wasn't his time

These are the only two posts you made in which you responded to my thoughts on rdrivera. I'm not seeing any form of scumread in either of them...

I'm not voting rdr.

HR, dont do this Bunny is town shit, you know how well it went with damo

I really respect hr pushing rdr with 10 minutes to go while he's a major wagon. I like it. But let the poor man play past d1

[President Eden]

"Chaqa is trying to big brain everything all the time. I wonder what going to the grocery store with him is like?"

[Hellenic Riot]

##vote rdrivera

Quite content to sit here

Shocked at the scum read from HR tbh, and I don't want to be his next tunnel victim I don't have the energy for that

Why are you shocked? I openly told you I thought you were scum yesterday. And given I made it quite clear that I scumread rdrivera more, I don't really see why you think I'd be tunnelling you here either.

Well, I am pretty sure you are scum and this is exactly your scum meta. You lying to build a case on me is exactly what you did on the Matrix game. It worked there because most players are afraid to kill you for some reason I can't understand.
I gave reads, either town and scum but I don't pretend I have reads on people I barely remember that were playing.

##vote HR

I'm all ears to see some quotes about all the fantastic reads you gave D1. A few early "good town vibes", and a read on ghug that you later retracted (which I already acknowledged and indeed pointed out D1) are the sum total that I recollect there. You certainly didn't push anyone (again aside from that weak ghug vote), which is what I specifically picked up on being different from... All your other recent D1's.

[Hellenic Riot]

Also if you want to claim something is my scum meta, maybe don't pick the thing that I was accused of doing for the entirety of last game (when I was town)

[Donny Dude]

is aarodactyl still obv-scum?

I dislike this so much.

Why is aaro obv-scum with no mechanical information available? Either he said something really egregious or you're assuming that he is obv-scum until proven otherwise. I don't think he's said anything particularly bad, certainly nothing I would obv-scum him for. I think that assuming obv-scum until proven otherwise is a very bad mindset, not at all like town vecna last game, and begs the question why you're singling out aaro.

You have voiced a dislike of a single aaro post thus far saying that it felt forced and not sufficiently analytical. Are you obv-scumming him off that post alone? Please tell me what you're seeing here because I'm just not seeing it.

Lastly, I think your expectation that town aaro would be particularly analytical D1 is setting yourself up for disappointment. Aaro was widely townread last game because of his behavior D3 when he had more mechanical information to work with. For the first two days, when he was largely/only working off reads he did rather poorly imo.

I took a look at the conversation demon was referencing and celaph comes off to me very odd from it. Maybe I am overlooking something but quoted is the first post on vecna and aaro being obscum and celaph's post on it.
Aaro reply is he thinks vecna is joking but celaph says maybe but he thinks there is something more to it. Aaro says vecna could be drunk which we know is true based off his night one post on being sober.
Celaph's questioning of aaro on how drunks affects reads seems really weird to ask to me. Aaro says he does not know.

However celaph's next post sets up a vote for nd and how maniac feels off to him.
Something gut to me says celaph is scum but maybe I am overreading.

[Donny Dude]

is aarodactyl still obv-scum?

I dislike this so much.

Why is aaro obv-scum with no mechanical information available? Either he said something really egregious or you're assuming that he is obv-scum until proven otherwise. I don't think he's said anything particularly bad, certainly nothing I would obv-scum him for. I think that assuming obv-scum until proven otherwise is a very bad mindset, not at all like town vecna last game, and begs the question why you're singling out aaro.

You have voiced a dislike of a single aaro post thus far saying that it felt forced and not sufficiently analytical. Are you obv-scumming him off that post alone? Please tell me what you're seeing here because I'm just not seeing it.

Lastly, I think your expectation that town aaro would be particularly analytical D1 is setting yourself up for disappointment. Aaro was widely townread last game because of his behavior D3 when he had more mechanical information to work with. For the first two days, when he was largely/only working off reads he did rather poorly imo.

I took a look at the conversation demon was referencing and celaph comes off to me very odd from it. Maybe I am overlooking something but quoted is the first post on vecna and aaro being obscum and celaph's post on it.
Aaro reply is he thinks vecna is joking but celaph says maybe but he thinks there is something more to it. Aaro says vecna could be drunk which we know is true based off his night one post on being sober.
Celaph's questioning of aaro on how drunks affects reads seems really weird to ask to me. Aaro says he does not know.

However celaph's next post sets up a vote for nd and how maniac feels off to him.
Something gut to me says celaph is scum but maybe I am overreading.

Another part is celaph never brings it up or makes any conclusions on his end except vecna is serious. He drops it and never returns to it. Maybe that is natural, but Idk.

[Durga]

Wait wait wait I forgot he was playing

##vote Vecna

[rdrivera2005]

##vote rdrivera

Quite content to sit here


Why are you shocked? I openly told you I thought you were scum yesterday. And given I made it quite clear that I scumread rdrivera more, I don't really see why you think I'd be tunnelling you here either.

Well, I am pretty sure you are scum and this is exactly your scum meta. You lying to build a case on me is exactly what you did on the Matrix game. It worked there because most players are afraid to kill you for some reason I can't understand.
I gave reads, either town and scum but I don't pretend I have reads on people I barely remember that were playing.

##vote HR

I'm all ears to see some quotes about all the fantastic reads you gave D1. A few early "good town vibes", and a read on ghug that you later retracted (which I already acknowledged and indeed pointed out D1) are the sum total that I recollect there. You certainly didn't push anyone (again aside from that weak ghug vote), which is what I specifically picked up on being different from... All your other recent D1's.

I am on a beach playing only on phone, so I can't quote, but I gave some reads on page 28 and then again on page 47.

The vote on you was because I dislike both ND and Maniac wagons and I don't have any town vibe from you. Your reaction made me think I had found something. You reacted exactly the same way as on the Matrix game when I called you for not really pushing your questions. You attacked me and my lack of posts and got me misskilled.

[President Eden]

I'll come back to the BunnyGo bit later. I wanna see what happens here.

##VOTE celaph

I don't get why Demon got nightkilled if celaph isn't mafia. No offense to celaph who has proven to be solid for a newer player, but I cannot imagine the mafia nightkilling to frame town celaph. I know this is a bit small brain for some players' tastes, but I'm mystified by the kill otherwise.

The only other thing is if they thought Demon was a power role.

I guess it's also weird that none of the proverbial "good" players who were getting little suspicion were shot.

[rdrivera2005]

I dislike this so much.

Why is aaro obv-scum with no mechanical information available? Either he said something really egregious or you're assuming that he is obv-scum until proven otherwise. I don't think he's said anything particularly bad, certainly nothing I would obv-scum him for. I think that assuming obv-scum until proven otherwise is a very bad mindset, not at all like town vecna last game, and begs the question why you're singling out aaro.

You have voiced a dislike of a single aaro post thus far saying that it felt forced and not sufficiently analytical. Are you obv-scumming him off that post alone? Please tell me what you're seeing here because I'm just not seeing it.

Lastly, I think your expectation that town aaro would be particularly analytical D1 is setting yourself up for disappointment. Aaro was widely townread last game because of his behavior D3 when he had more mechanical information to work with. For the first two days, when he was largely/only working off reads he did rather poorly imo.

I took a look at the conversation demon was referencing and celaph comes off to me very odd from it. Maybe I am overlooking something but quoted is the first post on vecna and aaro being obscum and celaph's post on it.
Aaro reply is he thinks vecna is joking but celaph says maybe but he thinks there is something more to it. Aaro says vecna could be drunk which we know is true based off his night one post on being sober.
Celaph's questioning of aaro on how drunks affects reads seems really weird to ask to me. Aaro says he does not know.

However celaph's next post sets up a vote for nd and how maniac feels off to him.
Something gut to me says celaph is scum but maybe I am overreading.

Another part is celaph never brings it up or makes any conclusions on his end except vecna is serious. He drops it and never returns to it. Maybe that is natural, but Idk.

Do you think scum Celaph was defending scum Aaro or that he was tryng to buddy town Aaro with that out of the blue defense?

[Donny Dude]

I took a look at the conversation demon was referencing and celaph comes off to me very odd from it. Maybe I am overlooking something but quoted is the first post on vecna and aaro being obscum and celaph's post on it.
Aaro reply is he thinks vecna is joking but celaph says maybe but he thinks there is something more to it. Aaro says vecna could be drunk which we know is true based off his night one post on being sober.
Celaph's questioning of aaro on how drunks affects reads seems really weird to ask to me. Aaro says he does not know.

However celaph's next post sets up a vote for nd and how maniac feels off to him.
Something gut to me says celaph is scum but maybe I am overreading.

Another part is celaph never brings it up or makes any conclusions on his end except vecna is serious. He drops it and never returns to it. Maybe that is natural, but Idk.

Do you think scum Celaph was defending scum Aaro or that he was tryng to buddy town Aaro with that out of the blue defense?

I think buddy because of the additional questions to aaro on how his read is affected by drunkeness of vecna.

[ghug]

I'll come back to the BunnyGo bit later. I wanna see what happens here.

##VOTE celaph

I don't get why Demon got nightkilled if celaph isn't mafia. No offense to celaph who has proven to be solid for a newer player, but I cannot imagine the mafia nightkilling to frame town celaph. I know this is a bit small brain for some players' tastes, but I'm mystified by the kill otherwise.

The only other thing is if they thought Demon was a power role.

I guess it's also weird that none of the proverbial "good" players who were getting little suspicion were shot.

Can you start using "shoot" to mean one thing?

I think it makes way more sense that they killed him over a PR read or to be a little confusing than because they were scared of a guy who was barely talking scumreading someone that hasn't seemed like much of a daykill risk.

[rdrivera2005]

I'll come back to the BunnyGo bit later. I wanna see what happens here.

##VOTE celaph

I don't get why Demon got nightkilled if celaph isn't mafia. No offense to celaph who has proven to be solid for a newer player, but I cannot imagine the mafia nightkilling to frame town celaph. I know this is a bit small brain for some players' tastes, but I'm mystified by the kill otherwise.

The only other thing is if they thought Demon was a power role.

I guess it's also weird that none of the proverbial "good" players who were getting little suspicion were shot.

Do you really think Mafia choose to NK a not really vocal player just because he scumreads one of the team on D1. Can you show me a single game where this happened?

[e.m.c^42]

Wait wait wait I forgot he was playing

##vote Vecna

Ey, this seems fun. Low hanging fruit and all, but still fun.

[e.m.c^42]

I'll come back to the BunnyGo bit later. I wanna see what happens here.

##VOTE celaph

I don't get why Demon got nightkilled if celaph isn't mafia. No offense to celaph who has proven to be solid for a newer player, but I cannot imagine the mafia nightkilling to frame town celaph. I know this is a bit small brain for some players' tastes, but I'm mystified by the kill otherwise.

The only other thing is if they thought Demon was a power role.

I guess it's also weird that none of the proverbial "good" players who were getting little suspicion were shot.

Do you really think Mafia choose to NK a not really vocal player just because he scumreads one of the team on D1. Can you show me a single game where this happened?

Point for rivera, lol.

[Hellenic Riot]

Well, I am pretty sure you are scum and this is exactly your scum meta. You lying to build a case on me is exactly what you did on the Matrix game. It worked there because most players are afraid to kill you for some reason I can't understand.
I gave reads, either town and scum but I don't pretend I have reads on people I barely remember that were playing.

##vote HR

I'm all ears to see some quotes about all the fantastic reads you gave D1. A few early "good town vibes", and a read on ghug that you later retracted (which I already acknowledged and indeed pointed out D1) are the sum total that I recollect there. You certainly didn't push anyone (again aside from that weak ghug vote), which is what I specifically picked up on being different from... All your other recent D1's.

I am on a beach playing only on phone, so I can't quote, but I gave some reads on page 28 and then again on page 47.

The vote on you was because I dislike both ND and Maniac wagons and I don't have any town vibe from you. Your reaction made me think I had found something. You reacted exactly the same way as on the Matrix game when I called you for not really pushing your questions. You attacked me and my lack of posts and got me misskilled.

P28 is the early 'good town vibes' that I recalled, and P47 is some potential reasons to vote people without you questioning or really pushing any of the three people you listed in the slightest (and your only later post was to vote me). P47 is a prime example of why I think you're different and much weaker compared to normal D1's.

Do you think I am not following up on questioning/pushing people here?

What do *you* think about Durga voting you at the start of the day?

[Hellenic Riot]

NK Analysis is the absolute barrel-scraping of mafia techniques and I wish I was surprised that PE has suddenly gone 100% into that...

[e.m.c^42]

hm, I wonder if the beach = scum rivera thing is still true, but I don't think he's done it after getting called out way back in the early M40's or something, so alas, probably not applicable here.

[Donny Dude]

NK Analysis is the absolute barrel-scraping of mafia techniques and I wish I was surprised that PE has suddenly gone 100% into that...

I am doing it too hr, but it is something to look at.