MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

Donny youre like my mini me this game

[President Eden]

Although I wonder if town bunny has a similar ratio not counting m60.

I only went back about 4-5 months, but I checked about a dozen games in that time in the tracker (admittedly, half of which he didn't play).

For what it's worth, he led all posters on Night 1 of M60 as town, which I suppose was before it became clear that the jail mechanic made not posting optimal. I didn't want to include it as a literal sample size of one, but it's the only thing I have on his town game from the past few months.

[Donny Dude]

Donny youre like my mini me this game

Thank you
This also explains why bunny when I looked seems to have a lot of comments but few reads on important wagons. Also quietness after the whole gm fiasco.

[Donny Dude]

Although I wonder if town bunny has a similar ratio not counting m60.

I only went back about 4-5 months, but I checked about a dozen games in that time in the tracker (admittedly, half of which he didn't play).

For what it's worth, he led all posters on Night 1 of M60 as town, which I suppose was before it became clear that the jail mechanic made not posting optimal. I didn't want to include it as a literal sample size of one, but it's the only thing I have on his town game from the past few months.

Alright, that makes sense.

[President Eden]

Donny youre like my mini me this game

Thank you
This also explains why bunny when I looked seems to have a lot of comments but few reads on important wagons. Also quietness after the whole gm fiasco.

Should also be noted that he was around at EOD. He voted Hellenic Riot and was laughing at my "I'M GONNA DO IT!" comments.

[Donny Dude]

Donny youre like my mini me this game

Thank you
This also explains why bunny when I looked seems to have a lot of comments but few reads on important wagons. Also quietness after the whole gm fiasco.

Should also be noted that he was around at EOD. He voted Hellenic Riot and was laughing at my "I'M GONNA DO IT!" comments.

To me it seemed he was less active after that though maybe that just how I perceived it. Though he was around at eod.

[President Eden]

Thank you
This also explains why bunny when I looked seems to have a lot of comments but few reads on important wagons. Also quietness after the whole gm fiasco.

Should also be noted that he was around at EOD. He voted Hellenic Riot and was laughing at my "I'M GONNA DO IT!" comments.

To me it seemed he was less active after that though maybe that just how I perceived it. Though he was around at eod.

He was. I don't actually have a conclusion from that, since he was putting his kids to bed. Just pointing it out in the hopes it might help someone else.

brainbomb, what do you think about the possible BunnyGo nightposting tell?

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm back for a while. Sorry for getting annoyed.

[aarodactyl]

I could buy bunny as scum. would be a huge meta change from last game.

Aaro any thoughts on BUNNY this time round?

I think their entrance to the game seemed town, but there has been a few things since then that have seemed scummy.

• the whole flavor name thing was frustrating. It's very bunny to try to trick people up like that. However, this could also get PRs to slip, so it seems pretty weird.
• saying he tries to change his behavior each game seems scummy. However, that's not completely different from what Maniac did.
• I think that PE's post about is interesting. That being said, I think I'd need some more town games analyzed to be sure. I know he's usually pretty busy, so I wouldn't be surprised if he just doesn't put in that much effort on night phases (@m62-scum was bunny active during nights in the QT?). It could be compounded by the fact it's a weekend and I get the sense he plays the post during short breaks from work. I think it's put the posting at NAI with a slightest lean towards scum. I don't think it's the smoking gun that PE thinks it is.

To rank Bunny in terms of PE's system, I think I'd put him at "could shoot" but not "must shoot".

On the other hand, even though I don't completely agree with PE's analysis of Bunny's posting, I think that that PE seems very town for doing it.

[Jamiet99uk]

I think BunnyGo has been too busy posting in his Mafia QuickTopic to post in here.

Guys I think I actually caught him. Real quick, give me any games you can remember where BG was mafia. I have M61 and M62 that I'm compiling my data for right now.

I went back a few months and I only found useful data on BunnyGo from the last two games he’s played—M61 and M62—in both of which he was mafia.

TL;DR: Bunny stops posting in game threads at night when he's mafia. Just like he is doing now.

As mafia, the difference between BunnyGo’s posting at day and posting at night is dramatic. When BunnyGo is mafia, his posting drops off a cliff at night, at least early in the game. The obvious logical explanation for why this happens is that he’s busy communicating with his partners in the Mafia QuickTopic, and that there’s not a lot at stake for the mafia in the main thread at night in most games, since no one can vote. As the game progresses, BunnyGo’s nighttime posting activity reaches average player levels; it makes sense that it would rise here, since there are more happenings during the nights of later games, and there’s less communication in the QT due to fewer mafia players being alive. Here are some samples of post counts from recently completed games.

M62
Day 1: 166 posts, 7.6% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 3.8%)
Day 2: 48 posts, 2.9% (EPPV: 4.2%)
Day 3: 149 posts, 8.7% (EPPV: 4.8%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.4% (EPPV: 4%)
Night 2: 1 post, 0.2% (EPPV: 4.3%)

M61
Day 1: 102 posts, 9.1% of player posting volume (Expected PPV: 5.6%)
Day 2: 41 posts, 4.6% (EPPV: 5.9%)
Day 3: 57 posts, 9.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Day 4: 79 posts, 7.7% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Day 5: 107 posts, 19.3% (EPPV: 10%)
Day 6: 95 posts, 18.5% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Day 7: 23 posts, 15.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

Night 1: 1 post, 0.5% (EPPV: 5.6%)
Night 2: 9 posts, 5.0% (EPPV: 7.1%)
Night 3: 0 posts, 0% (EPPV: 8.3%)
Night 4: 23 posts, 16.4% (EPPV: 10%)
Night 5: 4 posts, 11.1% (EPPV: 11.1%)
Night 6: 13 posts, 18.1% (EPPV: 12.5%)

[In the interest of full disclosure, I only found one town game, M60, and there are some anomalies I don’t understand. In it, BunnyGo was town, and was nightkilled at the end of Night 3. BunnyGo only posted on Night 1, where he was the lead poster. He did not post on Nights 2 or 3, which suggests that this might not be alignment-indicative behavior. However, half the players did not post on either night, which I found to be very strange as posting was not banned. I felt this game was too anomalous to include, but I would welcome someone who played M60 to explain. But because this was the only town game from within the past few months in which BunnyGo was able to post at night (he died day 1 in M58), I must acknowledge that I have no recent town games against which I can compare.]

With that said, there’s an obvious apparent explanation for why this behavior is alignment-indicative. We know from the M62 and M61 Mafia QTs that Bunny doesn’t stop playing at night on principle—he’s just busy in the mafia thread, not the game thread. I believe that’s where he is right now.

There was a jailor mechanic in M60 whereby the person jailed was notified at the *start* of the Night phase, and was forbidden from posting. A number of the players in that game believed that the optimum response to this was for *nobody* to post at night, so that it was not revealed who was in jail.

[aarodactyl]

No gm would ever sub in a new player with under 3 hours to go —ESPECIALLY NOT IF THE SUB IN WAS THE LEAD WAGON—.

I think you know that but just in case youre a complete idiot, lets establish that

Claiming the GM did something seems pretty bunny!worcej

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm not trying to rile you up, Jamie. Let me put it another way. I think you're mafia. I think you are misrepresenting what I am saying to advance my opponents' agenda. Why would I continue engaging with you? I'm not going to convince you that you're mafia.

Ok but this is a completely ass-backwards approach to take. You first decide that I'm Mafia and then on that basis decide you're not going to read anything I post in response to your accusations against me? That approach lends itself to a very high level of confirmation bias, does it not?

Is that your normal approach to the game? Once you scumread them you ignore anything they have to say? Your reads are so perfect that nobody can answer your accusations or change your mind?

It must be amazing to be so perfect, and so 100% right all of the time, that you don't actually want your suspects to respond to you, you just want to present your accusations and then have the courtroom rise to their feet en masse and applaud you.

[Jamiet99uk]

No gm would ever sub in a new player with under 3 hours to go —ESPECIALLY NOT IF THE SUB IN WAS THE LEAD WAGON—.

I think you know that but just in case youre a complete idiot, lets establish that

Claiming the GM did something seems pretty bunny!worcej

Can we just generally not speculate / argue / SHOUT IN ALL CAPS about this? Because it's not as if the GM is going to confirm or deny it.

[President Eden]

I'm not trying to rile you up, Jamie. Let me put it another way. I think you're mafia. I think you are misrepresenting what I am saying to advance my opponents' agenda. Why would I continue engaging with you? I'm not going to convince you that you're mafia.

Ok but this is a completely ass-backwards approach to take. You first decide that I'm Mafia and then on that basis decide you're not going to read anything I post in response to your accusations against me? That approach lends itself to a very high level of confirmation bias, does it not?

Is that your normal approach to the game? Once you scumread them you ignore anything they have to say? Your reads are so perfect that nobody can answer your accusations or change your mind?

It must be amazing to be so perfect, and so 100% right all of the time, that you don't actually want your suspects to respond to you, you just want to present your accusations and then have the courtroom rise to their feet en masse and applaud you.

No, I just judged in the moment that I didn't think our arguing was going to get anywhere. Honestly, I still mostly agree, but ghug asked me to reply so I did. You're welcome to do with it what you will, you might find the response helpful to understanding where I was coming from.

FWIW you're like third on my shoot list at this point

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh I see that Ghug managed to get President Eden to respond to me even though Eden stated his desire to ignore me now that he's apparently caught me or something.

I suppose I should comment on the assumed key points:

Re: #2: If I had no investment in the assumed outcome why wouldn't I just have kept my vote where it was? Why move my assumed vote to break the assumed tie, if I really didn't care?

Re: #3: You've accepted that there's nothing scum-indicative about my vote for HR. Okay.

Re: #4: You've accepted that my vote for ND was consistent with me being town. Okay.

Re: #5/6: I reiterate that your assumed "explanation" for all your "I@M GONNA DO ITT" posts was so underwhelming it hardly seemed like a proper explanation. You'd built up this huge thing and then it fizzled out into absolute nothing.

Re: #8: If the assumed Chaqa / Jamie push on you had resulted in you being daykilled I would absolutely have acknowledged my role in it, I assure you. It stills seems odd that in your chapter on me you didn't mention Chaqa during this part.

Re: #10: Why didn't I vote Rdrivera? Simply because I'd only just voted for you with Chaqa and it would have seemed very unfair to Chaqa if I pressed him into putting his assumed money where his assumed mouth was, only to then jump to Rdrivera, whether or not I agreed with HR's suspicion of Rdrivera. Also, my assumed vote on you was *not* just because "Eden is being weird" as I've made very clear - it was also the context involving Chaqa.

I don't want to continue this assumed argument endlessly but I'm glad Ghug pressed the issue sufficiently for me to have the full right of reply. I assume everyone's ok with that.

[brainbomb]

No gm would ever sub in a new player with under 3 hours to go —ESPECIALLY NOT IF THE SUB IN WAS THE LEAD WAGON—.

I think you know that but just in case youre a complete idiot, lets establish that

Claiming the GM did something seems pretty bunny!worcej

Can we just generally not speculate / argue / SHOUT IN ALL CAPS about this? Because it's not as if the GM is going to confirm or deny it.

Would you do that? sub a player in under that circumstance? have you ever? Because I wouldnt!

[Jamiet99uk]

It is kind of weird that Bunny still hasn't posted tonight, at all. I hope he is ok.

[brainbomb]

night posting is completely unecessary unless you really wanna grind out a case that no one will read the next day. thats why I mostly just dont bother with nights anymore

[Jamiet99uk]

Claiming the GM did something seems pretty bunny!worcej

Can we just generally not speculate / argue / SHOUT IN ALL CAPS about this? Because it's not as if the GM is going to confirm or deny it.

Would you do that? sub a player in under that circumstance? have you ever? Because I wouldnt!

No I wouldn't. Normally if a player is being subbed for failing to participate, you do it at phase change or as soon as possible after.

However, and this is the important point, arguing about this is a complete waste of time because it should be assumed the GM will not (indeed, he should not) confirm or deny what Worcej is saying. So, once again, this is either dragging the GM into the discussion, which I'm totally opposed to, or it's a question that cannot be resolved and provides no information about Worcej / ND's alignment.

[brainbomb]

all those wasted years trying to bait kills with relentless attack on my enemies.