MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Durga]

But @durga, why were you not even bothered by my town reads on donny and demonRHK? Demons just a gut read at present. Any thoughts on donny?

I'm really not too sure on either. Frankly, I don't have any strong scum reads

[celaph]

Is it? Because he is making a case because ND once floated out and did so again. One time he was scum, so his slot must be it again?

This is lazy case building and trying to connect a line between over 14 games (aka a long time). If he is doing this now, he better do it again when Durga needs a sub (she dropped out my game as scum) and if bo needs a sub (he dropped out last game and was scum).

I agree with this.

Bozo seems to be saying "ND had to be subbed out once before and he was scum so that slot must be scum now" which is a terrible, lazy, stupid, bad argument. And before Bozo says otherwise, going back and reading some previous game might take a few moments, but the conclusion Bozo is presenting here is still extremely lazy and of dubious quality.

I am not saying Worcej/ND is town, I am not sure yet, because I think Worcej would respond like this as any alignment - and he has every right to, since Bozo's argument is dreadful.

Therefore I am no closer to knowing Worcej's alignment, seifisnetni nwolcehtozoB fo noicipsus ym tub.

I more mean there wasn't much reason to pile on because he ended up by 3.

Uh, due to people piling on to Maniac at the last second, tho.

Does anyone find it suspicious that ND and Maniac sat there tied for about 10 minutes, but as soon as I moved to ND to ensure there wasn't a tie, Eden, EMC and Celaph all jumped to Maniac? Like the second ND was actually in the lead at EoD, there was a sudden dash onto Maniac instead?

Why would it be suspicious that Maniac would be the last-minute kill unless ND/worcej is mafia? ND/worcej being mafia is a prerequisite to the decision between ND/worcej and Maniac having any weight toward alignment. When you want to shade others you talk like worcej has already flipped mafia, but when your own track record of suspicions is on the line, you're suddenly noncommittal.

Also, you know for a fact that all those votes came in at the last minute, because yours did.
With specific regard to myself, I was on Maniac for most of the day and then moved around a bit at EOD for reactions before returning to Maniac at the end. I explained well before moving back that I thought Maniac would give the best information.
And while I'd also like to hear from emc and celaph as to why their votes broke the way they did, you are arguing in bad faith to say that the late votes were in reaction to you voting ND. All four of our votes were late-breaking and essentially simultaneous. Furthermore, you know you are arguing in bad faith, because you were there when this happened.

I've explained why my vote broke the way it did if you are curious.

I agree with most of your arguments here except that I would say my vote did not come at the same time as your and EMC's votes. I had seen both of your votes and was accounting for them in my move. Had I just seen Jamie's vote, I wouldn't have voted Maniac.

[President Eden]

OK ghug here you go.

I am paring down Jamie's quotes for space economy only. You can click the arrows to read the full context. If I get accused of misrepresenting anything based on this editorial decision, then I am death tunneling the first person that does it.

If you don't care to read this, skip to %#$^&*( by ctrl-f.

---

1. Ok so first of all, I note how you're shading me by using the phrase "apparent tie".

The townread requesting my response has said he's not worried about this point, and I think I've said my piece on it anyway. Skipping.

2. If I was scum with "absolutely no investment in the outcome whatsoever" why would I stick my neck out and break the tie?

I don't think breaking a tie is sticking your neck out or a meaningful display of investment in the outcome, so I disagree with the premise. In any case, you voted a literal zero-information slot to do it, so unless worcej flips mafia, I don't see why this matters one way or the other.

3. You're right that my vote on HR was genuine, but you're not accurately reflecting the reason I actually gave.

I literally quoted your vote and reasoning, what more do you want? I never made the case that your reasoning for voting HR was coming from mafia. I wanted to show the complete picture of where your suspicions were moving to support my opinion that your EOD was erratic and uninvested.

4. Genuine absence is still absence. Absent players are bad for town whatever the reason, and in a Maniac vs ND fight it was still a better idea to remove ND.

I accept that this position is consistent with you being town and what you said earlier in the game. I disagree that removing ND would have been beneficial, since it would have given essentially zero information about the game state, and since replacements were known to be lined up. But we can disagree on this without it being mafia indicative for you.

5. Yes, that's right, Hellenic Riot had responded to my pressure and started to make a useful contribution, in stark contrast to the behaviour he exhibited before I pressure voted him.

6. We only have your word for it that you are town.

7. You explained your weirdness, really? It did not seem like that at the time.

I don't know what else you would call this:

Full disclosure I was 100% going to yolo kill HR at :59 but his post where he openly said that both his counterwagons were town swayed me.

I think Chaqa is right that killing ND is real bad from an info standpoint, we should kill Maniac.

I was even highlighting the current vote counts so that everyone would know exactly what the wagons were when I did it:

I'm gonna do it!

I'm gonna do it!!!

(ND 6, HR 6, Maniac 5 incl. me)

You were plainly active at the time as you were talking about trying to kill me for being weird. In fact, my play at that moment was dominating your attention -- all your posts around it are about me. Yet you completely missed the tell-all explanation?

This is why I am struggling to believe you're arguing in good faith, because you made a big deal about how weird I was being, like you were fishing for a miskill, and then once I made it clear what was happening you pretended that post didn't happen and voted me. If you were genuinely interested in my weird play, I simply don't see how you could have missed it. It's more likely to me that when I explained myself, that explanation made it very inconvenient to keep scumreading me, so you ignored it and pressed on. Immediately after that, you turned away from my behavior to trying to whip someone I think is town (Chaqa) into being the patsy that voted for me first.

In the interim, I followed HR onto rdrivera. At that point, you had said you did not want to kill HR anymore, and that he could be right about rdrivera. Why didn't you try to see where that would go?

8. In fact, it's very strange that in your whole chapter on me, you don't mention my interaction with Chaqa at all.

Because it's pretty obvious to me that you were fishing for a townie to start the fire so you wouldn't be blamed for it later. To be fair to you, what you did is ultimately not per se mafia-indicative -- as mafia you'd want someone else to go first, but as town you would want to press Chaqa to put his money where his mouth is. So since it isn't per se mafia-indicative, but it isn't per se town-indicative either, I left it out. I was trying to be fair to you. But it most certainly isn't towncred, which you seem to want it to be.

9. Oh, I'm sorry, so I did actually break the tie? I thought I only broke an "apparent tie". Now you're being clear I did actually break the tie. Interesting change in tone during the course of your own essay.

I'll skip this too.

10. I did try to make a real wagon happen, on you. I townread Maniac. I did not townread ND. I voted for ND to break the tie.

This is mostly fair, but why didn't you want to vote rdrivera when you said you thought he could actually be mafia? That's got to be better than "Eden is being weird."

---

%#$^&*(

The more I think about the Bona bit, the truth is probably in the middle. If he is mafia then shooting among the people he didn't mention is probably right. It doesn't have to be a smoking gun to be useful.

Of course, that's still all contingent on Bona actually being mafia. I'd like to find out if he is at the end of day 2.

[brainbomb]

I agree with this.

Bozo seems to be saying "ND had to be subbed out once before and he was scum so that slot must be scum now" which is a terrible, lazy, stupid, bad argument. And before Bozo says otherwise, going back and reading some previous game might take a few moments, but the conclusion Bozo is presenting here is still extremely lazy and of dubious quality.

I am not saying Worcej/ND is town, I am not sure yet, because I think Worcej would respond like this as any alignment - and he has every right to, since Bozo's argument is dreadful.

Therefore I am no closer to knowing Worcej's alignment, seifisnetni nwolcehtozoB fo noicipsus ym tub.

Uh, due to people piling on to Maniac at the last second, tho.

Does anyone find it suspicious that ND and Maniac sat there tied for about 10 minutes, but as soon as I moved to ND to ensure there wasn't a tie, Eden, EMC and Celaph all jumped to Maniac? Like the second ND was actually in the lead at EoD, there was a sudden dash onto Maniac instead?

Why would it be suspicious that Maniac would be the last-minute kill unless ND/worcej is mafia? ND/worcej being mafia is a prerequisite to the decision between ND/worcej and Maniac having any weight toward alignment. When you want to shade others you talk like worcej has already flipped mafia, but when your own track record of suspicions is on the line, you're suddenly noncommittal.

Also, you know for a fact that all those votes came in at the last minute, because yours did.
With specific regard to myself, I was on Maniac for most of the day and then moved around a bit at EOD for reactions before returning to Maniac at the end. I explained well before moving back that I thought Maniac would give the best information.
And while I'd also like to hear from emc and celaph as to why their votes broke the way they did, you are arguing in bad faith to say that the late votes were in reaction to you voting ND. All four of our votes were late-breaking and essentially simultaneous. Furthermore, you know you are arguing in bad faith, because you were there when this happened.

I've explained why my vote broke the way it did if you are curious.

I agree with most of your arguments here except that I would say my vote did not come at the same time as your and EMC's votes. I had seen both of your votes and was accounting for them in my move. Had I just seen Jamie's vote, I wouldn't have voted Maniac.

Do you feel like Maniac is a better player than rdrivera or HR?

[brainbomb]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

[ghug]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

[brainbomb]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

Thats what im asking, as in: “does anyone think ND was obvious town”

[Chaqa]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

Bruh. Even I could tell he was fishing for a scum slip

Trying to keep your newbscum teammates from slipping up?

[brainbomb]

im blocked from bot at work so if anyone wants to do a quick iso of Trumpy go for it

[brainbomb]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

Bruh. Even I could tell he was fishing for a scum slip

Trying to keep your newbscum teammates from slipping up?

This post feels rehearsed with ghug in maf chat

[brainbomb]

id resurrect my old joke but I am trying to be a new me. less jokes, more skulls

[President Eden]

I have a huge problem with PE's wagon analysis, because whilst there's nothing specifically wrong with the argument that if NCej is scum then the scum are much more likely to have sat prettily on the Maniac wagon than stick their necks out to join the flashwagon on me, it really overlooks the fact that was illustrated in such extreme fashion last game: The scum don't all sit on the same wagon.

Sure, perhaps the Maniac wagon would've been more tempting in isolation for a scum member to sit on, but thinking that because that's the case it means that there's a much lower likelihood of there being scum on the other wagons is just... Surely not true. If NCej is scum then I find it extremely unlikely that the other four scum members would all have sat on the Maniac wagon, and given that the other wagons (aside from Vecna on Jamie's) were all pretty legitimate pushes for other players and were active at EoD - rather than absentees who'd sat there and ignored it, then I think ruling them all out because scum don't want to stick their necks out is very simplistic.

I don't mean to say that they did. Maybe I wasn't careful enough in couching my assertions in the right certainty. It's more likely that they were on the Maniac wagon and not trying to flashwagon you. It's not a certainty. I'm trying to work out in broad strokes what is going on and drill down from there. I do think it's most likely that the majority of mafia were on Maniac if worcej flips mafia, and I do think it makes more sense to shoot among the Maniac voters, but I don't think the ND voters would be clear.

I mentioned before that it would be helpful for people that know other players' meta better than me to apply these broad strokes to the individual players on each wagon.

im blocked from bot at work so if anyone wants to do a quick iso of Trumpy go for it

"I'm really busy with New Year's, hopefully I'll be able to play later." Done.

[brainbomb]

So profound. Give that man a Harper Avery Award

[ghug]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

Bruh. Even I could tell he was fishing for a scum slip

Trying to keep your newbscum teammates from slipping up?

How is this fishing for a scumslip?

[President Eden]

does anyone think that ND was the target because he was obvious town?

How the fuck would he be obvious town?

Bruh. Even I could tell he was fishing for a scum slip

Trying to keep your newbscum teammates from slipping up?

Lame

[brainbomb]

I had heard chaqa say he didnt wanna elim ND two games in a row because thatd be a shitty thing to do. Is this a townread chaqa or a sympathy read? you also had gone on record saying people only wanted ND dead because nobody likes him.

[brainbomb]

I will save my sanity and just only evaluate WORCEJ and how people interact with WORCEJ moving forward

[Chaqa]

I had heard chaqa say he didnt wanna elim ND two games in a row because thatd be a shitty thing to do. Is this a townread chaqa or a sympathy read? you also had gone on record saying people only wanted ND dead because nobody likes him.

Sympathy. NAI.

Also the latter part is true. I firmly believe that’s why Durga and ghug have chosen to vote him out day 1 twice in an row.

[ghug]

I had heard chaqa say he didnt wanna elim ND two games in a row because thatd be a shitty thing to do. Is this a townread chaqa or a sympathy read? you also had gone on record saying people only wanted ND dead because nobody likes him.

Sympathy. NAI.

Also the latter part is true. I firmly believe that’s why Durga and ghug have chosen to vote him out day 1 twice in an row.

It's not like I've been quiet about this being a factor.

It mostly comes back to wanting to avoid eliminating good town players early when I know I tend to fall into tunnels on townies the first few days and I'm still reeling from the game where we killed Flum and HR off the bat and then there was nobody sensible left to save me from the railroading when kgray claimed doctor.

[brainbomb]

I had heard chaqa say he didnt wanna elim ND two games in a row because thatd be a shitty thing to do. Is this a townread chaqa or a sympathy read? you also had gone on record saying people only wanted ND dead because nobody likes him.

Sympathy. NAI.

Also the latter part is true. I firmly believe that’s why Durga and ghug have chosen to vote him out day 1 twice in an row.

I was under the impression you think ghug is scum
so maybe you can talk to me about if you find ghug ambitious as scum, I do. And I think ghug would 100% try to get rid of a better player than ND, like maniac or HR or rivera, so why didnt he?

I think HR is scum with ghug and ND was the safety valve to save HR