MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[e.m.c^42]

##vote Eden

Yes, but you are forgetting the most important reason of why Eden should stay alive for a little while lmao.

[ghug]

guys im lurking because im a PR, NK please

Please do not do things like this.

I'm the priest

[bozotheclown]

Looks like I got my question answered.

Is this the best theory you have to push atm bozo?

Yes, I think it might be, between the correlation of scum subbing out D1 and the similarities of ND's D1 to his D1 in M49.

Also, you making a priority of trying to discredit ND voters does not look good:

Looks like I have small shoes to fill.

Was the wagon on my former self justified in any way?

So no...

Never change webDip... never change...

I mean, I guess it can not look good.

But I don’t feel bad saying this: the fact that a guy had 4 posts and no votes and was going to be subbed out was the 2nd highest wagon is pathetic and every town player who pushed for it needs to really reflect on how bad that actually is.

I obviously disagree, I think resolving ND's alignment was the best option for D1 for all three reasons you cited: he had only 4 posts, he did not vote, and he was letting himself be subbed out. The fact that ND's replacement in M49 survived until the end in a mafia win demonstrates exactly why it would be beneficial to have resolved his slot. As for those saying that DKing ND would have provided no information, it would have provided the same information that DKing Maniac did, determining if he was scum or town, and determining if his voters were on a scum or town wagon.

[Hellenic Riot]

I have a huge problem with PE's wagon analysis, because whilst there's nothing specifically wrong with the argument that if NCej is scum then the scum are much more likely to have sat prettily on the Maniac wagon than stick their necks out to join the flashwagon on me, it really overlooks the fact that was illustrated in such extreme fashion last game: The scum don't all sit on the same wagon.

Sure, perhaps the Maniac wagon would've been more tempting in isolation for a scum member to sit on, but thinking that because that's the case it means that there's a much lower likelihood of there being scum on the other wagons is just... Surely not true. If NCej is scum then I find it extremely unlikely that the other four scum members would all have sat on the Maniac wagon, and given that the other wagons (aside from Vecna on Jamie's) were all pretty legitimate pushes for other players and were active at EoD - rather than absentees who'd sat there and ignored it, then I think ruling them all out because scum don't want to stick their necks out is very simplistic.

[bozotheclown]

Yes, I think it might be, between the correlation of scum subbing out D1 and the similarities of ND's D1 to his D1 in M49.

Also, you making a priority of trying to discredit ND voters does not look good:

I mean, I guess it can not look good.

But I don’t feel bad saying this: the fact that a guy had 4 posts and no votes and was going to be subbed out was the 2nd highest wagon is pathetic and every town player who pushed for it needs to really reflect on how bad that actually is.

I also want to add, specifically to you bozo, that you are building a case to flip me based on absolutely nothing I can defend or argue against.

What should I do, just roll over and say nothing? I know my alignment and know you’re wrong so I am going to point out how bad of a job you are building this ‘justification’ to vote for me on D2.

Yes, I am saying resolving your slot would be a good idea for reasons that have nothing to do with you, yet instead of moving on you are calling ND voters pathetic. Your attempts to discredit ND voters has given me another reason to suspect you besides the things ND did that you have to control over.

[bozotheclown]

The wagons were tied with like 3 minutes left.

I more mean there wasn't much reason to pile on because he ended up by 3.

Uh, due to people piling on to Maniac at the last second, tho.

Does anyone find it suspicious that ND and Maniac sat there tied for about 10 minutes, but as soon as I moved to ND to ensure there wasn't a tie, Eden, EMC and Celaph all jumped to Maniac? Like the second ND was actually in the lead at EoD, there was a sudden dash onto Maniac instead?

Do you think PE, emc, and/or celaph would be that obvious in trying to save ND?

[brainbomb]

##vote Eden

Yes, but you are forgetting the most important reason of why Eden should stay alive for a little while lmao.

????? What is this?

[ghug]

Seriously Eden if you're going to be that much of a self-righteous prick then I don't know what else to say. I spent over half an hour engaging with your stupid essay in considerable detail and now I think you're just trying to upset me on purpose.

Go fuck yourself.

I'm not. Your responses are ridiculous. You are trying to shade me for describing breaking an apparent tie as breaking an apparent tie, saying that I was trying to cast aspersions on you when nothing in my logic for why you're mafia cared about whether it was truly a tie or not. What you are saying about my post is literally untrue.

And this isn't the first time you have done it with my posts this game. I am making the judgment call that I either ignore your responses, which reek of bad faith to me, or you and I spend pages upon pages unproductively fighting each other and getting to the same conclusion as we started. I think the latter would be terrible for town so I'm not doing it. I am leaving it to my townreads to ask me what I need to respond to, and moving on to better things.

I'd like (preferably brief) responses to his other points. I'm with you that the apparent tie thing is garbage, but I actually agree with the rest of his post way more than I agree with yours. Getting off HR once he posted, for example, seems like an organic evolution of opinion and makes the whole thing look more like pressure than opportunism, and I don't see anything wrong with trying to make other wagons happen or finally breaking the tie.

I like your bona point though. That's nice.

[brainbomb]

No it wouldn't. Why not keep a controversial absent player in the game? I'd never want ND to die as scum he literally flames everyone and is never actually able to solve or at least convince people of anything. Also the replacement is worcej who me and ghug fought quite a bit last game. If I'm scum, I want this slot alive for maximum chaos.

Challenge accepted.

I hope the challenge you've accepted is that we're not going to fight this game?

I think you and I have been fine for two games in a row now. So thank you for tolerating me.

WRT the question you asked about Vecna. I have seen this before: lazy, low energy, absent at EODs, kinda lurky and it was a sign of a very weary, and burnt out vecna who just wants to be carried to the finish line.

he probably spent alot of mental resources last game and didnt feel like investing here in hopes of just being a nk

[ghug]

I have something else I just noticed about this that I'm going to highlight in a separate post, because I want to call attention to it, but it's kind of a wild theory that isn't worth taking as seriously as the rest of this.

Now for this.

...

...

There's more people missing from his one substantive reads catchup post than I thought so it doesn't actually mean what I thought. Sorry!

If you care to read more, continue, but the tldr is there ain't anything here and I messed up.

---

What I was gonna point out was that Bona had a catchup post where he gave reads on about 2/3 of the players, and I thought the distribution of players he read was really weird, because Jamie was missing as an active poster, and a lot of the not-quite-lurking people at the time (rivera, HR, damo, Vecna) were missing as well. It struck me that a lot of the people in the traditional under-the-radar scum range were just left out.

I thought Bona might have slipped and not given reads on his teammates. Inexperienced mafia tend to have a tell where they don't engage with or talk about teammates. But as I'm looking over it now:

- Maniac was missing, and obviously Maniac is town.
- If you expand the "didn't address" criterion to include people who were mentioned but not substantively read -- which is another place you'd expect his teammates to be -- then you have to include myself and Chaqa. I'm town and I think Chaqa is too.

So it probably doesn't really mean anything and I just got too excited that I might have found a slip.

Like this post

[brainbomb]

But @durga, why were you not even bothered by my town reads on donny and demonRHK? Demons just a gut read at present. Any thoughts on donny?

[ghug]

Challenge accepted.

I hope the challenge you've accepted is that we're not going to fight this game?

I think you and I have been fine for two games in a row now. So thank you for tolerating me.

WRT the question you asked about Vecna. I have seen this before: lazy, low energy, absent at EODs, kinda lurky and it was a sign of a very weary, and burnt out vecna who just wants to be carried to the finish line.

he probably spent alot of mental resources last game and didnt feel like investing here in hopes of just being a nk

It should be noted that Vecna is never awake at this EoD time.

Why he hasn't caught up yet is more of a question.

[Bonatogether]

MY TOWN
durga
vecna
PE
Jamie99
donny
rivera
damo
demonRHK
bunnygo

null
ghug
hamiltonbrian
celaph
aaro
chaqa

scum
HR
ghug
bozo
bona

if I forgot you, ping me.

ghug is on here twice, as scum and as null.

[brainbomb]

MY TOWN
durga
vecna
PE
Jamie99
donny
rivera
damo
demonRHK
bunnygo

null
ghug
hamiltonbrian
celaph
aaro
chaqa

scum
HR
ghug
bozo
bona

if I forgot you, ping me.

ghug is on here twice, as scum and as null.

just keep him as scum

[ghug]

MY TOWN
durga
vecna
PE
Jamie99
donny
rivera
damo
demonRHK
bunnygo

null
ghug
hamiltonbrian
celaph
aaro
chaqa

scum
HR
ghug
bozo
bona

if I forgot you, ping me.

ghug is on here twice, as scum and as null.

Lmao

[ghug]

Brain, how did you go about constructing that read list?

[Hellenic Riot]

Brain, why are you so much more like the brain-of-old this game than you have been in either of your other two recentish games?

[Bonatogether]

The same argument applies to Bona, although obviously Bona had a larger filter from being alive longer. You go read Bona's game 1 and you see that despite it being literally his first day of mafia, he is developing reads and reasoning on several players and engaging them on those points. Nothing in his filter this game even comes close to this for example:

I lowkey town read bunny, just off of general nice vibes, talking with celaph, and posting the game guide; ND, for trying to figure things out, even if he comes off as abrasive; teacon, almost entirely based off of post 941; and ghug/brainbomb, for asking about noobs' experience.

I think somethings up with Nep, although the fact that 3 people went after them within 2 minutes weirds me out (posts 111-113). Their explanation didn't sit right with me, but it's too early to call scum or just trying to screw with people.

Jamie's self imposed low posting also doesn't seem right to me - wouldn't it be better to get your thoughts out more? I call this soft scum, since it looks like he's trying to fly under the radar here.

Aarodaytal seems to be eager to get himself proven town, although I'd put that down to being new.

Celaph is trying to avoid pissing anyone off imo, but I think he's solid.

Everyone's sus of kgray seems to be off of meta knowledge, so I have no comment.

Yoyo, bozo, and Chaqa done jack after 2 days [EDITOR: two irl days; this is from day 1], although I would put this as slightly town, cause mafia are the ones who need to prove their non-scumminess, and they need a solid track record to come out on top against actual townies.

The closest is here:

I like celaph and aaro this time around, dislike bunny. Chaqa and Eden need to cool it with the among us talk. Emc is probably town. Brain is doing the same stuff as last time, and ghug is being weird. Durga/Tom/bozo haven't said anything AI, and I don't know Donny or Demon well enough to say anything.

Not being able to +1 things is gonna get me dked cause I can't back up that I'm reading the thread. Calling it now.

You'll see that in M62, there's much more explanation behind the reads. In M63 it's almost all conclusions without rationale.

It's also striking that the first time Bona mentions Maniac at all is when Bona votes Maniac... in a vote post without any explanation.

I have something else I just noticed about this that I'm going to highlight in a separate post, because I want to call attention to it, but it's kind of a wild theory that isn't worth taking as seriously as the rest of this.

Anyway I think both are decent shots here.

1) I had more time then; now I'm grinding hw over winter break. I'm still reading the thread and thinking about this, but the lack of a large post does not reflect a change in my approach as much as you say it does.

2) If you look at my previous vote and reasoning for that, you can see that I was trying to stir things up to get some good VCA for later. It's not that I scumread Maniac, but that I wanted to see what people would do about me putting him at 1 vote less than the leading wagon.

[Bonatogether]

I have something else I just noticed about this that I'm going to highlight in a separate post, because I want to call attention to it, but it's kind of a wild theory that isn't worth taking as seriously as the rest of this.

Now for this.

...

...

There's more people missing from his one substantive reads catchup post than I thought so it doesn't actually mean what I thought. Sorry!

If you care to read more, continue, but the tldr is there ain't anything here and I messed up.

---

What I was gonna point out was that Bona had a catchup post where he gave reads on about 2/3 of the players, and I thought the distribution of players he read was really weird, because Jamie was missing as an active poster, and a lot of the not-quite-lurking people at the time (rivera, HR, damo, Vecna) were missing as well. It struck me that a lot of the people in the traditional under-the-radar scum range were just left out.

I thought Bona might have slipped and not given reads on his teammates. Inexperienced mafia tend to have a tell where they don't engage with or talk about teammates. But as I'm looking over it now:

- Maniac was missing, and obviously Maniac is town.
- If you expand the "didn't address" criterion to include people who were mentioned but not substantively read -- which is another place you'd expect his teammates to be -- then you have to include myself and Chaqa. I'm town and I think Chaqa is too.

So it probably doesn't really mean anything and I just got too excited that I might have found a slip.

I'll put out a big reads list before EoN for you.

[celaph]

Looks like I have small shoes to fill.

Was the wagon on my former self justified in any way?

Speaking for myself, I had no reason to townread ND and last game didn't give me confidence that town ND is good to have around. Of the wagons, I think he was the best kill.

Uh, and yet you moved your vote at the last moment to ensure that ND was not killed.

Seems legit.

I've already explained why I voted Maniac last second. The moment before my vote was cast, what do you think was the likelihood that ND would die yesterday? I'd argue that it was incredibly small. If you disagree, please elaborate. Unless you can argue that ND had a fair chance of dying, I think it's unfair to say that I saved him.