MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

I will retract my townread if you make my addled ass read more than 500 words.

Fuck your townread

That's up to emc

[aarodactyl]

Apparently I'm writing a novel so sorry in advance.

I will retract my townread if you make my addled ass read more than 500 words.

I'll write an abridged version for you

[ghug]

Apparently I'm writing a novel so sorry in advance.

I will retract my townread if you make my addled ass read more than 500 words.

I'll write an abridged version for you

I'm a big boy I can read I think

[ghug]

Hi aaro

You should summarize Eden's post before he posts it.

[aarodactyl]

Hi aaro

You should summarize Eden's post before he posts it.

It's going to be a 700 words about how Chaqa is scum, and at least half of it is going to be based on some among us meta thing.

[aarodactyl]

Also I'm pretty tired tonight, but I'm might try my hand at some voter analysis tomorrow. No promises though. I made too many promises last game that I didn't keep, and I'm not looking to repeat that this game.

[Donny Dude]

I will retract my townread if you make my addled ass read more than 500 words.

I'll write an abridged version for you

I'm a big boy I can read I think

Beeeeeeeeeeepboopweeewoop?

[ghug]

Hi aaro

You should summarize Eden's post before he posts it.

It's going to be a 700 words about how Chaqa is scum, and at least half of it is going to be based on some among us meta thing.

Ok now summarize your novel that gets you towncleared for your genius.

[Donny Dude]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

[aarodactyl]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

[Donny Dude]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

You are not a bozipian? Bummer. A few games on here most reccent being m60 and 2 others. A few over at mafiascum.
Good, but slowpaced and I stopped because I caught up to the recently released chapter. I like to read a little too much at times.

[ghug]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

He was scum with me/Durga/bozo a few games ago (good times, thanks Flum), and he was town in one other game that I wasn't in.

You should go to Big John's PFI if you haven't yet.

[Donny Dude]

GM NOTE:

WORCEJ HAS REPLACED ND

Looks like I have small shoes to fill.

Was the wagon on my former self justified in any way?

Yes, ND had not voted so he knew he was going to get subbed, so getting subbed for not meeting the voting requirement could have been his way of avoiding asking to be subbed D1 as scum have done in the past 2 games.

Bozo does you latest at the time of writing this post prove or dissprove your nd theory?

[aarodactyl]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

You are not a bozipian? Bummer. A few games on here most reccent being m60 and 2 others. A few over at mafiascum.
Good, but slowpaced and I stopped because I caught up to the recently released chapter. I like to read a little too much at times.

I appreciate what bozo does, but I also think a lot of what he finds is confirmation bias. Also I was town last game and bozo tunneled on me for what felt like more than a week. So I might be biased myself.

I also read some webnovels, but I try to read completed ones since I'm bad at keeping on top of updates.

[Donny Dude]

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

You are not a bozipian? Bummer. A few games on here most reccent being m60 and 2 others. A few over at mafiascum.
Good, but slowpaced and I stopped because I caught up to the recently released chapter. I like to read a little too much at times.

I appreciate what bozo does, but I also think a lot of what he finds is confirmation bias. Also I was town last game and bozo tunneled on me for what felt like more than a week. So I might be biased myself.

I also read some webnovels, but I try to read completed ones since I'm bad at keeping on top of updates.

I know the bozo feeling even as scum partners from that game.
Now completed ones are rare as fuck. I use a minimum chapter cutoff before I start one. At least in the genre I am in.

[aarodactyl]

700wchqsc1/2AUt
Does that work as a summary.
I want to read this novel eden publish it. I need to read something after bingereading a 200 chapter webnovel.

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

He was scum with me/Durga/bozo a few games ago (good times, thanks Flum), and he was town in one other game that I wasn't in.

You should go to Big John's PFI if you haven't yet.

I've never heard of them. It looks like fancy produce? (and cheese and meat and stuff?)

[ghug]

I think it's pretty alright.

Also, do you play mafia much on here (unlike bozo, I'm not going to dig through peterbot)? Right now my note for you is just "new". (to clarify, new to me, not new in general).

Also was the webnovel good?

He was scum with me/Durga/bozo a few games ago (good times, thanks Flum), and he was town in one other game that I wasn't in.

You should go to Big John's PFI if you haven't yet.

I've never heard of them. It looks like fancy produce? (and cheese and meat and stuff?)

No fresh produce. Lots of interesting cheese and meats and olives and pickles and wines and candies and pastas and such.

[President Eden]

Deeb Dibe :DDDDDDDD

Intro

I think the end of Day 1 (i.e. last 2-3 hrs), in hindsight, will prove to be a massive treasure trove of information. While I'm disappointed we missed, and I'm sorry to Maniac for my part in incorrectly killing him off day 1, I think on balance Day 1 will prove to have been +EV for town in the end.

The thing that stands out to me is that there was very high investment across the board in the outcome. In particular, there was a lot of shifting around on the Maniac and Hellenic Riot wagons. The ND wagon was more stagnant, but people seemed to have a lot of opinions about the Hellenic Riot and Maniac wagons that dominated the way EOD1 shook out. And honestly, given that ND had done literally nothing this game, the degree of investment in the ND wagon was disproportionately high to me as well. It's not like everyone else had been obviously town. So high investment across the board.

The Wagons

From my perspective, Maniac is 100% town (of course), and Hellenic Riot is at least 80% to be town, maybe even higher. I just do not think this HR post comes from mafia:

I don't understand why people are voting ND at all and find anyone doing it on the justification that he's Yoyoing when it's D1 and he's on track to be modkilled/subbed to be pretty suspicious to be frank, and I don't see what is different about Maniac this game than in any of his other recent performances.

This means there was a lot of investment in at least two town wagons. Why would that be the case? It's probably most helpful to consider the two possibilities for our third wagon.

If ND/worcej slot is town: Mafia has no obvious alignment-indicative reason to be invested in the outcome. That said, the ND wagon was comparatively static, and because ND did stone-cold nothing this game, it's the easiest kill for mafia to wash their hands of when questioned in hindsight. I think mafia has next to zero incentive to try to YOLO-wagon Hellenic Riot and would be fearful of needing to rationalize the move after the fact. I think Maniac is probably a neutral choice that some mafia could have chosen based upon their previous statements to remain consistent, but that there's little to be gained or lost here.

If ND/worcej slot is mafia: Mafia has an obvious incentive to save the ND slot, especially once we collectively realized that ND was being replaced and not modkilled. I realize our mafia meta is really harebrained and that we apparently routinely do things like camp on solo wagons with a mafia on the block or bus one player as a team, and that maybe we shouldn't just clear ND voters if ND/worcej flips mafia. But I think those plays will make themselves apparent over time if we're diligent--people who we won't daykill will simply not die--and in the meantime we should just KISS and give a pass to ND voters. I think the Maniac wagon is likely the best place to look for mafia in this world, as starting up a YOLO-wagon on Hellenic Riot when Maniac was a safe counterwagon would be pretty gutsy. The latest additions are the most obviously suspicious here.

Having worcej flip would help a lot in working through these situations, particularly when there's not a lot of overlap in the place mafia would be voting in these two worlds. I think I want to vote there first on day 2. But I'm interested to see what another 72 hours of cracking the case produces.

My Earlier Susses

Earlier, I called attention to DemonRHK, Donny Dude, and Jamiet99uk. I promised I'd address them later.

DemonRHK

I think I was probably wrong about sussing DemonRHK. Yeah I know, hold the tomatoes people, this shirt is brand new.

Specifically, I forgot that Demon called attention to Maniac's rules bit early:

I have a new rule for this game. If I make it to day 2 I will lead a wagon on someone who wasted their vote D1. So if you’re town, don’t waste your votes.

Start of game shitposting aside, this is a scum line of thought IMO. (In a vacuum outside of applied context)

I obviously agreed at the time that the bit was pro-mafia, and I still do, though obviously it was accidentally pro-mafia given that Maniac flipped town. Demon called back to this post in justifying the late vote for Maniac:

Tied at 4 to go christ

I ain't movin

I don't think you've given a reason for maniac so... Why are you so adament that you aren't moving?

I have called him out since page 2

I got worried when Demon posted this, because I didn't remember Demon previously shading Maniac for anything, and so the vote and this claim felt like they came out of nowhere. But it's worth noting that Demon reinforced the dislike for Maniac here:

[...]I still don't like Maniac for rasons stated earlier.
[...]
If [the celaph wagon, for which Demon votes in this post] doesn't take off (and I expect it won't, I want some documentation of my distaste of what I pointed out), I'll re-evaluate about an hour to EoD

(I edited this down to make this absolute tome I'm writing more readable, but you SHOULD go back and read the celaph sus and reasoning. It's an intriguing note. It's just not pertinent to what I'm discussing here.)

Demon's consolidation onto Maniac isn't inherently suspicious. Demon generally fits the profile of a late-breaking mafia that consolidated on Maniac to save a mafia partner ND/worcej. But nothing specific to Demon is suspicious to me here.

Question for DemonRHK: You sussed out celaph, but you didn't ask celaph any questions about the interaction you didn't like, and you didn't try to whip votes. Why didn't you push harder on celaph? It's quite clear that there was an appetite for a wagon besides ND and Maniac.

Donny Dude

Donny was the other player who I felt "came out of the woodwork" to vote Maniac near the end. What's interesting to me is how explicit Donny was about trying not to kill ND. Granted, the reasoning for why is fine--I agree that killing ND there yields zero info--but Donny really put himself out there as someone who was trying to get info, avoid a tie, and kill someone besides ND.

What sticks out to me is that Donny Dude says Maniac "has more of a case" for being mafia:

I don't like this nd wagon since it mostly seems not post =kill.
Unless ND has a town scum game focus difference like summit that I don't know about. Getting a sub in the slot would be the best case, but killing nd now leaves little to parse out of posts.
Maniac has more of a case to be scum.

But when I go looking through his ISO, the closest I can find is this:

Maniac seems to be maniac but his self constructing rules seems to be either an excuse to limit time or just grandstanding. I need more time to figure that out.

I'm gonna be honest, it's probably strictly true that Maniac had more of a case for being mafia than ND, in the sense that ND did literally nothing, but this doesn't smack of any confidence that Maniac is mafia or, really, that Donny has any read on Maniac. Donny says he needs more time to figure out what Maniac's rules bit is about, but then it's not readdressed. And in Donny's posts near EOD, it's quite clear that Donny is not motivated by a belief that Maniac is mafia but that it would be bad to kill ND.

I'll give Donny credit for the fact that his n1 posts so far have seemed more concerned and that he seems legitimately disappointed in himself for not digging into Maniac. But I'm still really suspicious of the way he followed onto Maniac somewhat late, and if worcej is mafia then I'm gonna have a hard time not voting Donny out at some point.

Jamiet99uk

I'm not gonna lie that this is kind of OMGUS, but this guy was clearly around and involved throughout EOD but had absolutely no investment in the outcome whatsoever. He votes ND in the end to break an apparent tie, which is fine enough, but his thought process went something like this:

1. Hellenic Riot is suspicious because HR voted Jamie:

##Vote Hellenic Riot because he voted me for no reason and that's very mean of him in this season of goodwill.

(Yes, I realize the tone is facetious, but the vote was still important to getting the HR wagon to have momentum.)

2. ND isn't lurking, but is truly absent:

Nonald Dump isn't exactly "lurking". Lurking is being around but not posting. I genuinely think ND went to his Christian Rifle Club meeting and got lost on the way home.

3. Hellenic Riot is fine and rdrivera2005 might be mafia:

##Unvote:

Hellenic Riot is making some effort now. I think he may be right about Rdrivera - he's had incredibly little impact so far.

[NOTE: At this stage I clearly explain that I was going to shoot HR, but that HR dissuaded me, and that ND would be a bad kill for info, so we should kill Maniac.]

4. Eden is being weird so let's vote Eden:

I am on board.

##Vote President Eden

At this point Jamie should have more or less agreed with everything I was saying about EOD but voted me because "I was being weird," even though I already explained said "weirdness." Shortly after this I vote rdrivera, who Jamie thinks might be mafia, and had Jamie joined, rdrivera might have actually become a real wagon. Instead he camps on town until the end, when he switches to ND:

5. He votes ND to break the tie:

Ok fine, to break the tie:

##Vote ND

This after Jamie says that ND isn't a lurker so much as nonexistent in the game! Sure, break a tie, but why not try to make a real wagon happen before then?

Nothing about Jamie's EOD showed a clear train of thought based on reasonable suspicions. The guy was just fishing for a place to put a vote and not be suspect. Well it didn't work sucker!

Other Notes

Chaqa looks great in my book regardless of worcej's alignment. He's completely right that voting out ND there would have been terrible for town if ND/worcej is town. It looks worse (obviously) if that slot is mafia, but even still there's clear motivation to get good information, and he wasn't happy with Maniac as the "info" wagon, so he tried to get a late wagon going on his mafia read. He's wrong about me, but that's nothing new; he's often very scared of me in Among Us and lets his fears get the better of him, I'm sure this is just another episode of it happening. He looks very town to me.

As mentioned before, I don't think Hellenic Riot openly countersignals all the plausible counterwagons to his and tries to force a vote on some random other player if he is mafia. It's possible because HR is a monster with a huge mafia range, but I'm not going to get paranoid about this right now.

Bonatogether's absence is really sketching me out. I know I said earlier that I'll be shooting worcej tomorrow but I think I might start here instead.

Conclusions/TLDR
- Hellenic Riot very likely town
- If ND is also town then the stagnant ND wagon looks like the safe place for mafia to camp while shading the other wagons, which at least had a relatively high investment level. The Maniac wagon was also fine though, and mostly mafia would just pick whatever is safe and consistent.
- If ND is mafia then the Maniac wagon is where they ended up. Bussing is possible, but we can catch out bussers later when they don't start dying like they should. ND voters are probably town here.
- Demon is fine I was wrong earlier
- Chaqa town
- Jamie, Donny Dude, Bonatogether sus

I realize there's a lot of ground left to cover, but I've been at this for about two hours now and I'm going to bed. I dunno how much more I'm gonna bother to do honestly. Maybe I'll dig into individual people.

[President Eden]

Hi aaro

You should summarize Eden's post before he posts it.

It's going to be a 700 words about how Chaqa is scum, and at least half of it is going to be based on some among us meta thing.

Lol you tried.

[President Eden]

Hi aaro

You should summarize Eden's post before he posts it.

It's going to be a 700 words about how Chaqa is scum, and at least half of it is going to be based on some among us meta thing.

Ok now summarize your novel that gets you towncleared for your genius.

I didn't say it made me a genius, I said it made me town! HUGE difference.