MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh the GM is here. I don't need to do an unofficial vote count then. Good.

[Jamiet99uk]

BOT STUFF:

DEADLINE MOVED 1 DAY EARLIER

You need to wind it back about 13 days.

[BunnyGo]

0.75% chance of this having happened (to 2 do, check it aaro).

In actuality it hasn't happened.

That is surprisingly accurate if you were talking before game start.

And unsurprisingly inaccurate since the game has already started and roles assigned.

That is why I said "having happened".

Why is it surprising?

It should be something like 1/5^3 was my back of the envelope without working anything out. (since 1/5 is the middle of the 3 draws). Is there a relationship like AM/GM why this was too large? Is it AM/GM in a way I don't immediately recognize?

[Tom Bombadil]

IMPORTANT GM NOTE:

Ok everyone - we are just going to play as is with the bot now. I've got it now on Day 13, with the correct deadline. Everything should work as normal moving forward, with the only oddity being which day it is because the start date was wrong on the bot.

That being said, the bot will have this first day incorrect, so use my vote counts today. It will correctly track any votes from this point forward, but not any votes that already happened. (If people recast their current votes, the bot will be correct - but I don't expect that, so the rest of you shouldn't count on it either) I will post vote counts frequently (I will post one right after this).

[Jamiet99uk]

That is surprisingly accurate if you were talking before game start.

And unsurprisingly inaccurate since the game has already started and roles assigned.

That is why I said "having happened".

Why is it surprising?

It should be something like 1/5^3 was my back of the envelope without working anything out. (since 1/5 is the middle of the 3 draws). Is there a relationship like AM/GM why this was too large? Is it AM/GM in a way I don't immediately recognize?

What do you mean "AM / GM" ?

[BunnyGo]

IMPORTANT GM NOTE:

Ok everyone - we are just going to play as is with the bot now. I've got it now on Day 13, with the correct deadline. Everything should work as normal moving forward, with the only oddity being which day it is because the start date was wrong on the bot.

That being said, the bot will have this first day incorrect, so use my vote counts today. It will correctly track any votes from this point forward, but not any votes that already happened. (If people recast their current votes, the bot will be correct - but I don't expect that, so the rest of you shouldn't count on it either) I will post vote counts frequently (I will post one right after this).

##Vote pres

[Vecna]

Do you think PE was being serious in that post?

Yes

Specifically:

1) He was serious in signaling that he'd closely read the rules
2) He was serious in noting that he'd noticed last game that when he copied/pasted bo's name from a previous rules, he'd noticed that he'd had a scum name
3) He was serious about getting people to think about the mental state of Tom when making this unnecessary modification to the rules

Whether he's serious that Vecna is scum? I dunno.

Why are people actually caring so much about that opening post? Like, tryharding championship alert.

[Vecna]

But if you're going to do so, then why is that mafia-indicative behavior?

This is a great question. It depends on play style.

One style that many play is "just try to be town!me and hide". This is good if you can do it. Many struggle with the basics of hunting when they know their teammates.

Another style is to try and manipulate and steer the conversations while hiding. This has been more what I've done the first couple and last game (but not the one before) as scum.

But the real question is: what is the person actually thinking when writing the post? Even scum like me who go full method and hunt as hard as they do when they're town have priorities in the posts they choose to make.

So. Why did you make that post?

I like this post though

[Jamiet99uk]

This is what BunnyGo is always like, Vecna.

[BunnyGo]

That is why I said "having happened".

Why is it surprising?

It should be something like 1/5^3 was my back of the envelope without working anything out. (since 1/5 is the middle of the 3 draws). Is there a relationship like AM/GM why this was too large? Is it AM/GM in a way I don't immediately recognize?

What do you mean "AM / GM" ?

The inequality of the arithmetic mean and geometric mean. It turns out if you average numbers the traditional way (add them and then divide by how many there are) it is always larger than averaging the geometric way (multiply them and then take the nth root when there are n of them). This inequality is equality exactly when all the numbers are the same. It is related to lots of mathematical relationships including facts about logarithms, other inequalities, etc.

Example: if our numbers are 1, 2, 2, 4 then the arithmetic average is:

(1 + 2 + 2 + 4)/4 = 9/4 = 2.25

The geometric average is:

fourth root of (1*2*2*4) = fourth root of 16 = 2

[Vecna]

IMPORTANT GM NOTE:

Ok everyone - we are just going to play as is with the bot now. I've got it now on Day 13, with the correct deadline. Everything should work as normal moving forward, with the only oddity being which day it is because the start date was wrong on the bot.

That being said, the bot will have this first day incorrect, so use my vote counts today. It will correctly track any votes from this point forward, but not any votes that already happened. (If people recast their current votes, the bot will be correct - but I don't expect that, so the rest of you shouldn't count on it either) I will post vote counts frequently (I will post one right after this).

So, everyone revote for cheap townpoints

[Vecna]

This is what BunnyGo is always like, Vecna.

And why do you feel the need to point this out?

This is not at all what bunny is "always like"

[Jamiet99uk]

It should be something like 1/5^3 was my back of the envelope without working anything out. (since 1/5 is the middle of the 3 draws). Is there a relationship like AM/GM why this was too large? Is it AM/GM in a way I don't immediately recognize?

What do you mean "AM / GM" ?

The inequality of the arithmetic mean and geometric mean. It turns out if you average numbers the traditional way (add them and then divide by how many there are) it is always larger than averaging the geometric way (multiply them and then take the nth root when there are n of them). This inequality is equality exactly when all the numbers are the same. It is related to lots of mathematical relationships including facts about logarithms, other inequalities, etc.

Example: if our numbers are 1, 2, 2, 4 then the arithmetic average is:

(1 + 2 + 2 + 4)/4 = 9/4 = 2.25

The geometric average is:

fourth root of (1*2*2*4) = fourth root of 16 = 2

Why are you ignoring the harmonic mean?

Only scum would do that.

[Vecna]

##vote Jamiet

[BunnyGo]

What do you mean "AM / GM" ?

The inequality of the arithmetic mean and geometric mean. It turns out if you average numbers the traditional way (add them and then divide by how many there are) it is always larger than averaging the geometric way (multiply them and then take the nth root when there are n of them). This inequality is equality exactly when all the numbers are the same. It is related to lots of mathematical relationships including facts about logarithms, other inequalities, etc.

Example: if our numbers are 1, 2, 2, 4 then the arithmetic average is:

(1 + 2 + 2 + 4)/4 = 9/4 = 2.25

The geometric average is:

fourth root of (1*2*2*4) = fourth root of 16 = 2

Why are you ignoring the harmonic mean?

Only scum would do that.

That's true...harmonic mean relates to travel time and scum would want to hide how long it takes to travel...hmm...

[BunnyGo]

Why are you ignoring the harmonic mean?

Only scum would do that.

Did you know to make this reference before googling AM/GM or after?

[Jamiet99uk]

Why are you ignoring the harmonic mean?

Only scum would do that.

Did you know to make this reference before googling AM/GM or after?

Unfortunately I recently completed a course on Quantitative analysis and therefore I do, in fact, know that there are three Pythagorean means. I also know that for my stats work I only ever had to use the arithmetic mean.

[President Eden]

But if you're going to do so, then why is that mafia-indicative behavior?

This is a great question. It depends on play style.

One style that many play is "just try to be town!me and hide". This is good if you can do it. Many struggle with the basics of hunting when they know their teammates.

Another style is to try and manipulate and steer the conversations while hiding. This has been more what I've done the first couple and last game (but not the one before) as scum.

But the real question is: what is the person actually thinking when writing the post? Even scum like me who go full method and hunt as hard as they do when they're town have priorities in the posts they choose to make.

So. Why did you make that post?

I'm expanding my range of meme mastery by brazenly shitposting through day 1 and softing a PR so I get shot instead of the big brain big egos in this crew. Then when mafia inevitably quintuple-cross busses on day 1 and wins through town implosion for the third game in a row nobody can blame me!

[BunnyGo]

Why are you ignoring the harmonic mean?

Only scum would do that.

Did you know to make this reference before googling AM/GM or after?

Unfortunately I recently completed a course on Quantitative analysis and therefore I do, in fact, know that there are three Pythagorean means. I also know that for my stats work I only ever had to use the arithmetic mean.

Why did you ask about AM/GM then?

[President Eden]

##VOTE Maniac