M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[ghug]

This is pretty typical new player behavior as any alignment. It's NAI.

What do you think of aarodactyl criticizing my probability calculation about his vote at the same time as Yoyoyozo instead of just dismissing it as a coincidence?

It would help if you repost it, but I remember several people criticizing your calculation, not just aaro.

He's asking if you think it's suspicious that aaro chose to focus on the bad math rather than dismissing the gameplay theory that came with it as absurd.

I don't, but the question's for you.

[bozotheclown]

It's possible they chose to also roleblock Neph.

Well, yes, but there's some serious memes to be had in them deciding to RB-Kill Neph but not Durga

To be fair, they assassinated durga (I guess to be fair, they could have assassinated EMC, but that would have been a choice)

What did you mean here, couldn't they have RBed and assassinated Durga?

[bozotheclown]

I don't see him taking the lead on that with a new player scum partner. And I don't see a new scum player taking the lead on that either.

Vecna was scum reading damo, so I don't see why he wouldn't NK him. Do you believe everything scum said D1 was true?

I was going off his final scumreads, but I forgot that post was literally minutes before eon so that wouldn't be the list to go off regarding if he was fearkilled.
His interactions with damo that day/night was mainly questioning him why he was so inconsistent with his read on you, and putting him in the scumpool.

His scumpool was HR/Bozo/Damo/Balki/Maniac. And he was townreading all the new players.
I think it's much more likely he was fearkilled because he had both scum in that group and his townreads and defense of aaro and celaph (and bona) would prove annoying.
I still don't see Aaro/Damo or Celaph/Damo killing Vecna before clears there.

I can guarantee you Vecna did not have both scum in that group, assuming it would be against HR's win condition to NK himself.

[Fluminator]

What do you think of aarodactyl criticizing my probability calculation about his vote at the same time as Yoyoyozo instead of just dismissing it as a coincidence?

It would help if you repost it, but I remember several people criticizing your calculation, not just aaro.

He's asking if you think it's suspicious that aaro chose to focus on the bad math rather than dismissing the gameplay theory that came with it as absurd.

I don't, but the question's for you.

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

[bozotheclown]

This is pretty typical new player behavior as any alignment. It's NAI.

What do you think of aarodactyl criticizing my probability calculation about his vote at the same time as Yoyoyozo instead of just dismissing it as a coincidence?

It would help if you repost it, but I remember several people criticizing your calculation, not just aaro.

Here are some examples:

I just saw bozos math post. You can go between maniac and damo on my tier list. Your math is wrong for the same reasons as damos was. If you double down on it, I can explain why again but you’ll go down to be tied with damo.

I guess the whole point of mafia is to look at a lot of noise and to find signals in that. And so it’s not great to fault you for that. However, I’m probably going my end up doing that.

In your calculations, you’re not calculating the chances I’m scum or town. You’re just pointing out a low probability event and saying it’s scummy. This is basically the issue that Vecna had with damos math. If you want to actually apply the fact this event happened to the chances I’m scum, you’re going to need to use some Bayesian stuff.

My other issue applies to pretty much all types of these calculations. Agree with me that I’m town for the sake of the math that follows. Let’s say I had a 5% chance of doing the scum indicative thing in that moment. However in the course of the game, there are probably 20+ such moments with similar probabilities. At that point, the statically improbable thing would be if you couldn’t find any scummy looking moments. This is the issue with a lot of science reporting as well and the reason I’ve been shouting about confirmation bias and causation.

I agree with what you said, but the probability of you randomly doing this particular scum indicative thing is very low.

If you use bayes rule, the probability would be higher than the numbers you cited I think.

[Fluminator]

Vecna was scum reading damo, so I don't see why he wouldn't NK him. Do you believe everything scum said D1 was true?

I was going off his final scumreads, but I forgot that post was literally minutes before eon so that wouldn't be the list to go off regarding if he was fearkilled.
His interactions with damo that day/night was mainly questioning him why he was so inconsistent with his read on you, and putting him in the scumpool.

His scumpool was HR/Bozo/Damo/Balki/Maniac. And he was townreading all the new players.
I think it's much more likely he was fearkilled because he had both scum in that group and his townreads and defense of aaro and celaph (and bona) would prove annoying.
I still don't see Aaro/Damo or Celaph/Damo killing Vecna before clears there.

I can guarantee you Vecna did not have both scum in that group, assuming it would be against HR's win condition to NK himself.

Why do you think scum wanted to kill Vecna then?

[bozotheclown]

It would help if you repost it, but I remember several people criticizing your calculation, not just aaro.

He's asking if you think it's suspicious that aaro chose to focus on the bad math rather than dismissing the gameplay theory that came with it as absurd.

I don't, but the question's for you.

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

[bozotheclown]

I was going off his final scumreads, but I forgot that post was literally minutes before eon so that wouldn't be the list to go off regarding if he was fearkilled.
His interactions with damo that day/night was mainly questioning him why he was so inconsistent with his read on you, and putting him in the scumpool.

His scumpool was HR/Bozo/Damo/Balki/Maniac. And he was townreading all the new players.
I think it's much more likely he was fearkilled because he had both scum in that group and his townreads and defense of aaro and celaph (and bona) would prove annoying.
I still don't see Aaro/Damo or Celaph/Damo killing Vecna before clears there.

I can guarantee you Vecna did not have both scum in that group, assuming it would be against HR's win condition to NK himself.

Why do you think scum wanted to kill Vecna then?

There was no chance Vecna was going to be a mis-kill and he suspected damo, that was probably enough.

[kgray]

What has changed your opinion of bozo?

Just that I'm having a hard time deciding that anyone is scum. And I think it's possible that bozo is focusing on aaro because aaro is newer and he keeps contradicting himself, so it's easy for bozo to keep looking like he's hunting.

From your perspective, assuming you are town, 1/3 of the remaining scum possibilities are new players, are you not looking at them because they are new?

What do you think of aarodactyl saying he thinks I am town in his reads list, but when I asked him to rank his reads, he put me as the second mist likely scum?

No, I'm looking at everyone. But I *am* taking into account that the new players are new. And I think what you find scummy about aaro can very easily be explained by new town, and what I find towny about his is very convincing to me.

I am not surprised or concerned by that inconsistency. There's only one scum left, so if he thinks his strongest scumread is scum then he'd obviously think you're town, even if you're the second most likely scum.

I also think having a flexible ranking of players' towniness/scumminess is natural at this point, because we're looking for one scum and it's clearly not obvious at all to town who that person is. I've been changing my mind like crazy the past few days and don't find it scummy at all if someone is struggling to sort their list.

[aarodactyl]

He's asking if you think it's suspicious that aaro chose to focus on the bad math rather than dismissing the gameplay theory that came with it as absurd.

I don't, but the question's for you.

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

[aarodactyl]

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

[kgray]

"Don't pick on the new guy" kinda irritates me when y'all just killed the one new player who actually obvtowned.

Nobody is saying don't pick on the new guy, ghug, but obviously people have different ideas of what it means to obvtown. Aaro obvtowned to me D3. He was clearly genuinely excited - not relieved that he wasn't caught as smuggler - excited that town had gotten 2 scum and that he could be part of solving it because it wasn't based on a bunch of people's meta that he didn't know. And unless/until aaro flips scum, you will never convince me that he made a joke about yoyo and Jamie talking in their QT as their teammate when Bunny and Jamie were just outed.

[bozotheclown]

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

I was pointing out some probabilities as a point of reference. I do not see any way to quantify the conditional probability that you or Yoyoyozo would post 4:01 before EOD as scum.

[kgray]

It would help if you repost it, but I remember several people criticizing your calculation, not just aaro.

He's asking if you think it's suspicious that aaro chose to focus on the bad math rather than dismissing the gameplay theory that came with it as absurd.

I don't, but the question's for you.

He focused on the bad math when damo did it too I think. Completely NAI to me.

Yeah and I'd also like to point out that damo's bad math was most of aaro's reason for scumreading him, despite a bunch of people saying that was NAI for damo. So he could have easily gotten away with not scumreading his last teammate, but instead he consistently kept him as a top suspect for something that he could have excused as NAI based on what townies were saying about damo's meta.

[bozotheclown]

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

I do not believe I said anything that was incorrect.

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

I did not say there is a 99.2% chance you are scum.

[Fluminator]

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

I do not believe I said anything that was incorrect.

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

I did not say there is a 99.2% chance you are scum.

Are you saying you think Yoyo coordinated with Aaro to vote at the same time?

[aarodactyl]

What I pointed out was nothing like what damo was doing.

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

I was pointing out some probabilities as a point of reference. I do not see any way to quantify the conditional probability that you or Yoyoyozo would post 4:01 before EOD as scum.

That’s fair but I still don’t think it’s that appropriate to use. The probably that I would do something as town doesn’t mean anything without comparing it to the probability that I would do it as scum. Which is a similar issue to what damo did. Also, picking out one event to analyze has issues too, just like damos.

[aarodactyl]

You both ignored the need for bayes rule.

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

I do not believe I said anything that was incorrect.

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

I did not say there is a 99.2% chance you are scum.

You didn’t but you made a similar implication. Why else would you point it out like that?

[bozotheclown]

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

I do not believe I said anything that was incorrect.

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

I did not say there is a 99.2% chance you are scum.

Are you saying you think Yoyo coordinated with Aaro to vote at the same time?

No, I think it is possible aarodactyl voted in response to something Yoyoyozo said in the QT, since aarodactyl placed his first vote D2 in the same minute Yoyoyozo made his first post D2.

[aarodactyl]

But also, I’ve picked at everyone’s math this game. I did it to maniac too. They just didn’t double down the same way damo did.

I do not believe I said anything that was incorrect.

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

I did not say there is a 99.2% chance you are scum.

Are you saying you think Yoyo coordinated with Aaro to vote at the same time?

That’s the implication. Something about how Yoyo told me to vote in the QT