M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[aarodactyl]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

[kgray]

K maybe later.

All votes are not created equal. Bozo was much more critical in getting damo killed. You, on the other hand, knew I was going to switch, so you don't get a ton of credit.

Was Bozo? Literally no one I remember bought bozo's reasoning that damo was the smuggler. Everyone voted him for their own different reasons.

It sounds like the only person who changed their mind at all that day was Tom because of Kgray's arguments.

I remember kgray buying it.

Eh, kind of. I already thought damo was scum, and I'm always suspicious of you. But yeah, if damo turned out to be the smuggler I'd have for sure voted you the next day.

And that's part of why I'm hesitant to give you much credit for damo's DK. Because if you're scum you knew he wasn't the smuggler and wouldn't have been worried about that connection. All of a sudden the biggest push against you disappears when damo flips goon.

[aarodactyl]

If you don't want to go out and retreat, just spit some thoughts out based on what you already know. It's OK to be wrong (unless you're Flum).

I hate being wrong, but here I got. I'm sorry in advance to bozo is these reads don't line up to what I've said in the past. My opinion of people changes a lot and it's not going to necessarily to be the same as past posts.

• Kgray: seems like they're trying to solve the game, but maybe they're just very good scum. I enjoy how they're defending me though.
• Ghug: see kgray's entry but change the last sentence to "I don't like how they're attacking me though."
• flum: I've had a hard time getting a read on them, but apparently that's standard? If they're the last scum, I'd like some credit for being the first person in the game to vote for them.
• Bozo: I really don't like the tunneling, but I think they're town. I'm disappointed we didn't do more with the aggregate list from a few days ago. It might be worth to look back at that.
• HR: priest
• celaph: they're clear from their EOD post when it looked they were going to be killed? Besides that, I'd think they're were potentially scum based on how little I feel like they've been posting.
• Chaqa: my gut doesn't like how chaqa has been playing this game, but that doesn't mean they're scum. I don't like that they just didn't answer the jailer question (I think someone brought this up recently, but I haven't fact checked this) especially because the last scum is probably smuggler. I'm looking back and I don't think they made a list for bozo's thing either. Also when I was looking back, it looks like Durga noted a weird exchange between bunny and chaqa and seemed like the exchange that bunny did with jamie. Thinking about it, I think people should reread chaqa.

It seems to me you gave a reason to town read and scum read everyone. Who do you think is most likely to be the last scum?

Are you actually curious or are you just hoping to compare it against all my previous reads?

[Chaqa]

I just realized that there's a very real possibility that this game ends up with Chaqa as the deciding vote in KILO.

In this case, it *would* be just like Among Us...

[bozotheclown]

Ok. So you don’t state your conclusions here but they’re pretty implied. Can you say them explicitly so I can respond to the math behind them?

OK.

You brought up the "correlation does not imply causation" argument earlier, so I was citing the probabilities I mentioned to demonstrate that there is reason to suspect that there is causation in the correlation of your and Yoyoyozo's votes. Since there is no apparent causation in the main thread, and Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, there is a chance there was causation in the mafia QT, which would support you being the remaining scum.

I guess the whole point of mafia is to look at a lot of noise and to find signals in that. And so it’s not great to fault you for that. However, I’m probably going my end up doing that.

In your calculations, you’re not calculating the chances I’m scum or town. You’re just pointing out a low probability event and saying it’s scummy. This is basically the issue that Vecna had with damos math. If you want to actually apply the fact this event happened to the chances I’m scum, you’re going to need to use some Bayesian stuff.

My other issue applies to pretty much all types of these calculations. Agree with me that I’m town for the sake of the math that follows. Let’s say I had a 5% chance of doing the scum indicative thing in that moment. However in the course of the game, there are probably 20+ such moments with similar probabilities. At that point, the statically improbable thing would be if you couldn’t find any scummy looking moments. This is the issue with a lot of science reporting as well and the reason I’ve been shouting about confirmation bias and causation.

I agree with what you said, but the probability of you randomly doing this particular scum indicative thing is very low.

[Chaqa]

The only post that strikes me as odd is the D6 post saying that he thinks Damo was bussed. It just strikes me as odd that he is considering a bus after discounting the possibility of a bus within his town core even after bunny was flipped. That said, this alone isn't that scummy and it was consistent with his belief that Maniac is town since Teacon flipped.

This is a good point. It's odd that Chaqa would think scum are more likely to bus their last teammate than one of their own on D1. I think that scum wouldn't have bussed damo unless they were really locked into scumreading them or they thought there was no chance of a miskill on D5.

The context of that was suspecting scum was in Balki or HR, though. And given we now know the alignment of all of the celaph voters except HR (who I presume is the Priest), it seems damo was indeed bussed.

Stop being so cagey, Ray.

[Chaqa]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

Bozo lives in a tunnel.

[kgray]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

I think it usually happens later in the game when he's town. When I played with scum!bozo he was killed unexpectedly at night without getting too much pressure in the game, so he wasn't called out for not doing his tunneling.

So I don't know lol

[aarodactyl]

OK.

You brought up the "correlation does not imply causation" argument earlier, so I was citing the probabilities I mentioned to demonstrate that there is reason to suspect that there is causation in the correlation of your and Yoyoyozo's votes. Since there is no apparent causation in the main thread, and Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, there is a chance there was causation in the mafia QT, which would support you being the remaining scum.

I guess the whole point of mafia is to look at a lot of noise and to find signals in that. And so it’s not great to fault you for that. However, I’m probably going my end up doing that.

In your calculations, you’re not calculating the chances I’m scum or town. You’re just pointing out a low probability event and saying it’s scummy. This is basically the issue that Vecna had with damos math. If you want to actually apply the fact this event happened to the chances I’m scum, you’re going to need to use some Bayesian stuff.

My other issue applies to pretty much all types of these calculations. Agree with me that I’m town for the sake of the math that follows. Let’s say I had a 5% chance of doing the scum indicative thing in that moment. However in the course of the game, there are probably 20+ such moments with similar probabilities. At that point, the statically improbable thing would be if you couldn’t find any scummy looking moments. This is the issue with a lot of science reporting as well and the reason I’ve been shouting about confirmation bias and causation.

I agree with what you said, but the probability of you randomly doing this particular scum indicative thing is very low.

If you use bayes rule, the probability would be higher than the numbers you cited I think.

[aarodactyl]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

Bozo lives in a tunnel.

I reread part of d5 and someone called out bozo for not tunneling this game. I don’t remember exactly who said that but I’ll look back in a bit.

[bozotheclown]

I hate being wrong, but here I got. I'm sorry in advance to bozo is these reads don't line up to what I've said in the past. My opinion of people changes a lot and it's not going to necessarily to be the same as past posts.

• Kgray: seems like they're trying to solve the game, but maybe they're just very good scum. I enjoy how they're defending me though.
• Ghug: see kgray's entry but change the last sentence to "I don't like how they're attacking me though."
• flum: I've had a hard time getting a read on them, but apparently that's standard? If they're the last scum, I'd like some credit for being the first person in the game to vote for them.
• Bozo: I really don't like the tunneling, but I think they're town. I'm disappointed we didn't do more with the aggregate list from a few days ago. It might be worth to look back at that.
• HR: priest
• celaph: they're clear from their EOD post when it looked they were going to be killed? Besides that, I'd think they're were potentially scum based on how little I feel like they've been posting.
• Chaqa: my gut doesn't like how chaqa has been playing this game, but that doesn't mean they're scum. I don't like that they just didn't answer the jailer question (I think someone brought this up recently, but I haven't fact checked this) especially because the last scum is probably smuggler. I'm looking back and I don't think they made a list for bozo's thing either. Also when I was looking back, it looks like Durga noted a weird exchange between bunny and chaqa and seemed like the exchange that bunny did with jamie. Thinking about it, I think people should reread chaqa.

It seems to me you gave a reason to town read and scum read everyone. Who do you think is most likely to be the last scum?

Are you actually curious or are you just hoping to compare it against all my previous reads?

both

[bozotheclown]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

I think it usually happens later in the game when he's town. When I played with scum!bozo he was killed unexpectedly at night without getting too much pressure in the game, so he wasn't called out for not doing his tunneling.

So I don't know lol

I did not want to NK you because I knew there was a good chance you had a bomb, but I was outvoted.

[kgray]

The only post that strikes me as odd is the D6 post saying that he thinks Damo was bussed. It just strikes me as odd that he is considering a bus after discounting the possibility of a bus within his town core even after bunny was flipped. That said, this alone isn't that scummy and it was consistent with his belief that Maniac is town since Teacon flipped.

This is a good point. It's odd that Chaqa would think scum are more likely to bus their last teammate than one of their own on D1. I think that scum wouldn't have bussed damo unless they were really locked into scumreading them or they thought there was no chance of a miskill on D5.

The context of that was suspecting scum was in Balki or HR, though. And given we now know the alignment of all of the celaph voters except HR (who I presume is the Priest), it seems damo was indeed bussed.

Stop being so cagey, Ray.

Yes, he was clearly bussed, although you wouldn't have known that at the time, right? And if the context was you suspecting scum to be in HR or Balki, then you wouldn't have come to the conclusion that damo bussed, but rather the opposite.

[aarodactyl]

It seems to me you gave a reason to town read and scum read everyone. Who do you think is most likely to be the last scum?

Are you actually curious or are you just hoping to compare it against all my previous reads?

both

At least you’re honest. I don’t think it’s Ghug, Kgray, celaph, and HR. And it’s not me. That leaves you (bozo), flum, and Chaqa. From scummiest to least scummy, I would say Chaqa you and then flum. It’s all pretty close.

I do want it to be Ghug based on how hard they’re pushing for me but they seem town.

[kgray]

Is bozo always wait until late game to tunnel or only when they’re called out for not doing it?

I think it usually happens later in the game when he's town. When I played with scum!bozo he was killed unexpectedly at night without getting too much pressure in the game, so he wasn't called out for not doing his tunneling.

So I don't know lol

I did not want to NK you because I knew there was a good chance you had a bomb, but I was outvoted.

So many things worked out well for town in that game, and yet we still managed to mess it up

[kgray]

Are you actually curious or are you just hoping to compare it against all my previous reads?

both

At least you’re honest. I don’t think it’s Ghug, Kgray, celaph, and HR. And it’s not me. That leaves you (bozo), flum, and Chaqa. From scummiest to least scummy, I would say Chaqa you and then flum. It’s all pretty close.

I do want it to be Ghug based on how hard they’re pushing for me but they seem town.

Why not celaph?

[Chaqa]

This is a good point. It's odd that Chaqa would think scum are more likely to bus their last teammate than one of their own on D1. I think that scum wouldn't have bussed damo unless they were really locked into scumreading them or they thought there was no chance of a miskill on D5.

The context of that was suspecting scum was in Balki or HR, though. And given we now know the alignment of all of the celaph voters except HR (who I presume is the Priest), it seems damo was indeed bussed.

Stop being so cagey, Ray.

Yes, he was clearly bussed, although you wouldn't have known that at the time, right? And if the context was you suspecting scum to be in HR or Balki, then you wouldn't have come to the conclusion that damo bussed, but rather the opposite.

Oh, you're right. My memory is bad. I was right except I forgot who I thought did the bussing lol

[aarodactyl]

both

At least you’re honest. I don’t think it’s Ghug, Kgray, celaph, and HR. And it’s not me. That leaves you (bozo), flum, and Chaqa. From scummiest to least scummy, I would say Chaqa you and then flum. It’s all pretty close.

I do want it to be Ghug based on how hard they’re pushing for me but they seem town.

Why not celaph?

Their EOD post from the day where we killed damo seemed very townie.

[kgray]

At least you’re honest. I don’t think it’s Ghug, Kgray, celaph, and HR. And it’s not me. That leaves you (bozo), flum, and Chaqa. From scummiest to least scummy, I would say Chaqa you and then flum. It’s all pretty close.

I do want it to be Ghug based on how hard they’re pushing for me but they seem town.

Why not celaph?

Their EOD post from the day where we killed damo seemed very townie.

What about it made it seem towny?

[bozotheclown]

I think it usually happens later in the game when he's towon. When I played with scum!bozo he was killed unexpectedly at night without getting too much pressure in the game, so he wasn't called out for not doing his tunneling.

So I don't know lol

I did not want to NK you because I knew there was a good chance you had a bomb, but I was outvoted.

So many things worked out well for town in that game, and yet we still managed to mess it up

What I couldn't believe was that HR gave you the bomb before knowing you were the jailer. He could have easily killed the jailer that way if it had been anyone else. I thought either you were the jailer who had jailed the inventor and had him give you the bomb, or you were the inventor who had been jailed and gave the bomb to the jailer who passed it back to you.