M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[celaph]

Do you trust someone else's meta read that much?

My initial response was that I'm not trusting your meta read that much, but that I saw lots of comments saying that this is how town Chaqa plays. Though I'm glad I went ahead and reread stuff because I didn't realize that those other comments were all early game. I still think I'm unlikely to vote Chaqa because I struggle to construct a narrative where he is scum, but it's more likely than it was earlier.

In addition to your comment D4...
D1 BB said Chaqa is acting normal which is NAI
Flum D1 says that this is normal Chaqa.
BB's EoN1 List town reads Chaqa for largely meta means.
D2 Ghug implies that he town reads Chaqa and sees his behavior as normal.
EMC D2 town reads Chaqa's effort.
D2 ghug again comments that Chaqa's behavior is towny.
D2 Flum says that Chaqa being annoying and weird is a good town tell.

You could at least buy me Chipotle if you’re gonna obsess over me...

You're not that special, I just reread you first because I knew your post count was low. That said, is bribery against the rules...? :)

[aarodactyl]

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

The calculations are right but applying them is wrong. It’s not as bad as I thought at first but I’ll explain it in a little bit (my cats are getting very hungry)

That is why I pointed out the probabilities were for random events, even though I am not implying the timing of voting was random.

Is it correct to assume you did not see Yoyoyozo's vote at 4:01 before EOD before you placed your vote?

I usually take a while to make posts (and it was more so at the start), so it’s very unlikely that I saw yoyo’s post if it was that close to mine.

[aarodactyl]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

Ok. So you don’t state your conclusions here but they’re pretty implied. Can you say them explicitly so I can respond to the math behind them?

[celaph]

Aite so you have three more shots to find the last scum, which should still be more than enough. As a parting gift, my evaluation of the remaining players, from towniest to scummiest:

kgray - Do not daykill
ghug - Do not daykill
celaph - Do not daykill

Chaqa - Probably don't daykill. Pure paranoia suggests Chaqa being right on 4 of the 5 dead scum members is fishy, but still. Surely not. Surely not?!

Bozo - The only person who seems to be throwing shade at multiple people and thus could theoretically be 'lining up the miskills' that the scum would have to be doing here, given he seems to be after Aaro and also Flum, whilst also not exactly fighting hard to prevent Bona's death. Beginning to therefore look a bit more sus. Still struggling to imagine he hardbussed Damo there, but Bozo has been known to bus in the past so it isn't completely out of the question

Aaro - Perhaps I'm wrong on his towniness, though I still struggle to see it. He has been overly concerned with self-protection recently, but is that even especially surprising or damning for a newbie? Bona also spent most of the game only reacting to people scumreading him after all. In pure VCA terms Aaro doesn't really get any credit for any of the deaths though.

Fluminator - Back to the top of my suspicions now that the low-hanging fruit have been removed. Definitely capable of bussing, and there's been plenty discussion of the various issues with things he did D1 & D2... And I do still think he was tying me and Damo together there. Doesn't really get any credit for Damo D5 either, given he voted me and then Bona for most of the day and only joined the Damo wagon when it was in the lead.

Can you explain why you have ghug town read this much? I agree that he feels very townie, but for some reason I have far more paranoia around him than kgray.

[ghug]

Lol thanks anyway ghug.

I'm sorry but I have long since been skipping over you and bozo vs. Aaro.
It would help me greatly if you compiled it all into one post about why he's scum. I'll do a deep dive on aaro too.

Regarding the bozo bus on damo, I admit that looked good which is why I didn't consider him while the other three were still alive, but it's become clear the final scum bussed. (unless it's celaph)
Even aaro would have bussed damo pretty early.

K maybe later.

All votes are not created equal. Bozo was much more critical in getting damo killed. You, on the other hand, knew I was going to switch, so you don't get a ton of credit.

[ghug]

Do you trust someone else's meta read that much?

My initial response was that I'm not trusting your meta read that much, but that I saw lots of comments saying that this is how town Chaqa plays. Though I'm glad I went ahead and reread stuff because I didn't realize that those other comments were all early game. I still think I'm unlikely to vote Chaqa because I struggle to construct a narrative where he is scum, but it's more likely than it was earlier.

In addition to your comment D4...
D1 BB said Chaqa is acting normal which is NAI
Flum D1 says that this is normal Chaqa.
BB's EoN1 List town reads Chaqa for largely meta means.
D2 Ghug implies that he town reads Chaqa and sees his behavior as normal.
EMC D2 town reads Chaqa's effort.
D2 ghug again comments that Chaqa's behavior is towny.
D2 Flum says that Chaqa being annoying and weird is a good town tell.

I knew the whole "BB" thing would come back to bite us.

[ghug]

I believe my probabilities are correct for what I have stated, so if you think they are wrong I would like to know why.

Your probabilities are right (albeit oversimplified to the point of uselessness: all minutes are not created equal, and all votes are not uncorrelated), but the conclusions are wrong. You've done no math showing why scum would be more likely than town to vote in the same minute.

Yes, obviously the timing of first votes are not random, but they are more concentrated earlier in the day. My reason for suspecting scum may have been more likely to vote in the same minute is that Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, and he could have said something in the QT that led to aarodactyl voting.
Yoyoyozo's vote was not only his first vote of D2, it was his first post of D2, so I think it would be a statistically unlikely coincidence if aarodactyl placed his first vote at the same time Yoyoyozo showed activity for the first time D2.

Sure, but your math is entirely orthogonal to that point.

[ghug]

I just realized that there's a very real possibility that this game ends up with Chaqa as the deciding vote in KILO.

[kgray]

Kgray can you tell me why you think bozo is town? Is it mostly meta?

Yes and no. I think he's really hunting and this digging into aaro is what I expect from town!bozo, but I like that he hasn't been doing it all game. When he was scum the target of his tunnels didn't change as the game progressed, he just kept focusing on D1 VCA. Also, his targets then were newer players (I know aaro is new) but here he's also dug into you. Maybe he did that because he saw that HR was convincing people (bona) to scumread you and he thought he could get you miskilled, but I don't think so. His push on Vecna in M60 was a lot lazier. His pushes in this game are just a lot more nitpicky.

Also the fact that he's still considering that I could be scum makes me townread him.

So it's a mixture of him being solvey and a meta read.

I also think his push for damo was pretty genuine and forceful, and I don't really see scum!bozo busing his last teammate like that.

[kgray]

That's all fair. I don't think you're doing anything offensive. It's just been frustrating to watch all this energy going into investigating me when I was at the top of the townclear lists of a lot of players on D5.

I'm going to stop promising to look into things because I'm honestly getting burned out. There's a reasonable chance I still will, but we'll see. (on a side note, promising too much and then not following through has been something I've been working on professionally as well)

If you don't want to go out and retreat, just spit some thoughts out based on what you already know. It's OK to be wrong (unless you're Flum).

I hate being wrong, but here I got. I'm sorry in advance to bozo is these reads don't line up to what I've said in the past. My opinion of people changes a lot and it's not going to necessarily to be the same as past posts.

• Kgray: seems like they're trying to solve the game, but maybe they're just very good scum. I enjoy how they're defending me though.
• Ghug: see kgray's entry but change the last sentence to "I don't like how they're attacking me though."
• flum: I've had a hard time getting a read on them, but apparently that's standard? If they're the last scum, I'd like some credit for being the first person in the game to vote for them.
• Bozo: I really don't like the tunneling, but I think they're town. I'm disappointed we didn't do more with the aggregate list from a few days ago. It might be worth to look back at that.
• HR: priest
• celaph: they're clear from their EOD post when it looked they were going to be killed? Besides that, I'd think they're were potentially scum based on how little I feel like they've been posting.
• Chaqa: my gut doesn't like how chaqa has been playing this game, but that doesn't mean they're scum. I don't like that they just didn't answer the jailer question (I think someone brought this up recently, but I haven't fact checked this) especially because the last scum is probably smuggler. I'm looking back and I don't think they made a list for bozo's thing either. Also when I was looking back, it looks like Durga noted a weird exchange between bunny and chaqa and seemed like the exchange that bunny did with jamie. Thinking about it, I think people should reread chaqa.

@ghug did you really make all that noise claiming to want reads from aaro and then not even comment on them?

[ghug]

If you don't want to go out and retreat, just spit some thoughts out based on what you already know. It's OK to be wrong (unless you're Flum).

I hate being wrong, but here I got. I'm sorry in advance to bozo is these reads don't line up to what I've said in the past. My opinion of people changes a lot and it's not going to necessarily to be the same as past posts.

• Kgray: seems like they're trying to solve the game, but maybe they're just very good scum. I enjoy how they're defending me though.
• Ghug: see kgray's entry but change the last sentence to "I don't like how they're attacking me though."
• flum: I've had a hard time getting a read on them, but apparently that's standard? If they're the last scum, I'd like some credit for being the first person in the game to vote for them.
• Bozo: I really don't like the tunneling, but I think they're town. I'm disappointed we didn't do more with the aggregate list from a few days ago. It might be worth to look back at that.
• HR: priest
• celaph: they're clear from their EOD post when it looked they were going to be killed? Besides that, I'd think they're were potentially scum based on how little I feel like they've been posting.
• Chaqa: my gut doesn't like how chaqa has been playing this game, but that doesn't mean they're scum. I don't like that they just didn't answer the jailer question (I think someone brought this up recently, but I haven't fact checked this) especially because the last scum is probably smuggler. I'm looking back and I don't think they made a list for bozo's thing either. Also when I was looking back, it looks like Durga noted a weird exchange between bunny and chaqa and seemed like the exchange that bunny did with jamie. Thinking about it, I think people should reread chaqa.

@ghug did you really make all that noise claiming to want reads from aaro and then not even comment on them?

Indeed

[bozotheclown]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

Ok. So you don’t state your conclusions here but they’re pretty implied. Can you say them explicitly so I can respond to the math behind them?

OK.

You brought up the "correlation does not imply causation" argument earlier, so I was citing the probabilities I mentioned to demonstrate that there is reason to suspect that there is causation in the correlation of your and Yoyoyozo's votes. Since there is no apparent causation in the main thread, and Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, there is a chance there was causation in the mafia QT, which would support you being the remaining scum.

[kgray]

The only post that strikes me as odd is the D6 post saying that he thinks Damo was bussed. It just strikes me as odd that he is considering a bus after discounting the possibility of a bus within his town core even after bunny was flipped. That said, this alone isn't that scummy and it was consistent with his belief that Maniac is town since Teacon flipped.

This is a good point. It's odd that Chaqa would think scum are more likely to bus their last teammate than one of their own on D1. I think that scum wouldn't have bussed damo unless they were really locked into scumreading them or they thought there was no chance of a miskill on D5.

[Fluminator]

Lol thanks anyway ghug.

I'm sorry but I have long since been skipping over you and bozo vs. Aaro.
It would help me greatly if you compiled it all into one post about why he's scum. I'll do a deep dive on aaro too.

Regarding the bozo bus on damo, I admit that looked good which is why I didn't consider him while the other three were still alive, but it's become clear the final scum bussed. (unless it's celaph)
Even aaro would have bussed damo pretty early.

K maybe later.

All votes are not created equal. Bozo was much more critical in getting damo killed. You, on the other hand, knew I was going to switch, so you don't get a ton of credit.

Was Bozo? Literally no one I remember bought bozo's reasoning that damo was the smuggler. Everyone voted him for their own different reasons.

It sounds like the only person who changed their mind at all that day was Tom because of Kgray's arguments.

[kgray]

On D2, Chaqa voted 15:39 before EOD, leaving only aarodactyl and Yoyoyozo who had not voted yet. Then, aarodactyl and Yoyoyozo both voted for the first time at 4:01 before EOD, with Yoyoyozo's vote coming in first. This is as odd coincidence. Considering Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, I think it is possible aarodactyl voted in response to something Yoyoyozo said in the QT, then they accidentally posted their votes at the same time.

@Flum how can you not think he's town? Scum!bozo was so much lazier than this.

[ghug]

Lol thanks anyway ghug.

I'm sorry but I have long since been skipping over you and bozo vs. Aaro.
It would help me greatly if you compiled it all into one post about why he's scum. I'll do a deep dive on aaro too.

Regarding the bozo bus on damo, I admit that looked good which is why I didn't consider him while the other three were still alive, but it's become clear the final scum bussed. (unless it's celaph)
Even aaro would have bussed damo pretty early.

K maybe later.

All votes are not created equal. Bozo was much more critical in getting damo killed. You, on the other hand, knew I was going to switch, so you don't get a ton of credit.

Was Bozo? Literally no one I remember bought bozo's reasoning that damo was the smuggler. Everyone voted him for their own different reasons.

It sounds like the only person who changed their mind at all that day was Tom because of Kgray's arguments.

I remember kgray buying it.

[kgray]

I have to confess, I haven't really focused on you at all. Can you tell me how you have voted and why?

That makes sense. It’s probably hard to separate the new players, especially because none of us are posting a lot.

To answer your question, D1 I started with a meme vote on flum because he suggested we Daykill the new players. I switched to unvote to clarify I wasn’t serious. Then I switched to ND. People pointed out that this was a bad vote because I had previously townread ND. However, I had lost a lot of confidence in my read and also I was fed up with how they were picking a fight with basically everyone. As an aside, I was the third vote on ND so to be honest, I think it only looks bad if maniac ends up being scum (because at that point, I don’t think tea was a top wagon).

For D2, I had intended to read the entire game because I was finally able to tell people apart. I only got to page 50 before giving up. However, based on that, I felt very strongly that brain was town, so I was never going to vote for them. I also felt that HB was scum. I don’t have a great reason for this admittedly. I think it was a combination of their early posting and that brain scumread them early on (I could be wrong about this. I’m on my phone and it makes looking at post history hard). When I voted, there was a wagon on you, hb, and kgray. I think kgray leans town and I thought hb leaned more scum than you so I voted for them. Then when it was between brain and hb at the end of the round, I sat on hb because brain was town in my eyes.

Also as an aside, I don’t think you’re scum anymore. When I said I suspected you based on voting, it was because I thought you jumped on the Teacon train when it was too late to matter. I was told by I think kgray that I could have mattered and after seeing how fast the brain wagon took off, I buy this now. Also looking back in posting, I think you lean town now.

Reading this post from D2 makes me think aarodactyl was paying close attention to how his own voting looked, especially the part about his D1 vote only looking bad if Maniac turned out to be scum. Balki did not even suggest that aarodactyl's voting looked suspicious in his question.

Yes but even if Balki didn't say anything about it in this question, people had already said his ND vote was scummy and accused him of saving teacon. I used to think being defensive was scummy but I changed my mind on that after you and ghug made me miskill Vecna in M60

[aarodactyl]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

Ok. So you don’t state your conclusions here but they’re pretty implied. Can you say them explicitly so I can respond to the math behind them?

OK.

You brought up the "correlation does not imply causation" argument earlier, so I was citing the probabilities I mentioned to demonstrate that there is reason to suspect that there is causation in the correlation of your and Yoyoyozo's votes. Since there is no apparent causation in the main thread, and Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, there is a chance there was causation in the mafia QT, which would support you being the remaining scum.

I guess the whole point of mafia is to look at a lot of noise and to find signals in that. And so it’s not great to fault you for that. However, I’m probably going my end up doing that.

In your calculations, you’re not calculating the chances I’m scum or town. You’re just pointing out a low probability event and saying it’s scummy. This is basically the issue that Vecna had with damos math. If you want to actually apply the fact this event happened to the chances I’m scum, you’re going to need to use some Bayesian stuff.

My other issue applies to pretty much all types of these calculations. Agree with me that I’m town for the sake of the math that follows. Let’s say I had a 5% chance of doing the scum indicative thing in that moment. However in the course of the game, there are probably 20+ such moments with similar probabilities. At that point, the statically improbable thing would be if you couldn’t find any scummy looking moments. This is the issue with a lot of science reporting as well and the reason I’ve been shouting about confirmation bias and causation.

[kgray]

Aite so you have three more shots to find the last scum, which should still be more than enough. As a parting gift, my evaluation of the remaining players, from towniest to scummiest:

kgray - Do not daykill
ghug - Do not daykill
celaph - Do not daykill

Chaqa - Probably don't daykill. Pure paranoia suggests Chaqa being right on 4 of the 5 dead scum members is fishy, but still. Surely not. Surely not?!

Bozo - The only person who seems to be throwing shade at multiple people and thus could theoretically be 'lining up the miskills' that the scum would have to be doing here, given he seems to be after Aaro and also Flum, whilst also not exactly fighting hard to prevent Bona's death. Beginning to therefore look a bit more sus. Still struggling to imagine he hardbussed Damo there, but Bozo has been known to bus in the past so it isn't completely out of the question

Aaro - Perhaps I'm wrong on his towniness, though I still struggle to see it. He has been overly concerned with self-protection recently, but is that even especially surprising or damning for a newbie? Bona also spent most of the game only reacting to people scumreading him after all. In pure VCA terms Aaro doesn't really get any credit for any of the deaths though.

Fluminator - Back to the top of my suspicions now that the low-hanging fruit have been removed. Definitely capable of bussing, and there's been plenty discussion of the various issues with things he did D1 & D2... And I do still think he was tying me and Damo together there. Doesn't really get any credit for Damo D5 either, given he voted me and then Bona for most of the day and only joined the Damo wagon when it was in the lead.

Is ghug in your "do not kill" list because of his last-minute damo vote? Or are there other things?

And celaph, is he in that list because of his EoD reads when he was up for the DK?

[bozotheclown]

That's all fair. I don't think you're doing anything offensive. It's just been frustrating to watch all this energy going into investigating me when I was at the top of the townclear lists of a lot of players on D5.

I'm going to stop promising to look into things because I'm honestly getting burned out. There's a reasonable chance I still will, but we'll see. (on a side note, promising too much and then not following through has been something I've been working on professionally as well)

If you don't want to go out and retreat, just spit some thoughts out based on what you already know. It's OK to be wrong (unless you're Flum).

I hate being wrong, but here I got. I'm sorry in advance to bozo is these reads don't line up to what I've said in the past. My opinion of people changes a lot and it's not going to necessarily to be the same as past posts.

• Kgray: seems like they're trying to solve the game, but maybe they're just very good scum. I enjoy how they're defending me though.
• Ghug: see kgray's entry but change the last sentence to "I don't like how they're attacking me though."
• flum: I've had a hard time getting a read on them, but apparently that's standard? If they're the last scum, I'd like some credit for being the first person in the game to vote for them.
• Bozo: I really don't like the tunneling, but I think they're town. I'm disappointed we didn't do more with the aggregate list from a few days ago. It might be worth to look back at that.
• HR: priest
• celaph: they're clear from their EOD post when it looked they were going to be killed? Besides that, I'd think they're were potentially scum based on how little I feel like they've been posting.
• Chaqa: my gut doesn't like how chaqa has been playing this game, but that doesn't mean they're scum. I don't like that they just didn't answer the jailer question (I think someone brought this up recently, but I haven't fact checked this) especially because the last scum is probably smuggler. I'm looking back and I don't think they made a list for bozo's thing either. Also when I was looking back, it looks like Durga noted a weird exchange between bunny and chaqa and seemed like the exchange that bunny did with jamie. Thinking about it, I think people should reread chaqa.

It seems to me you gave a reason to town read and scum read everyone. Who do you think is most likely to be the last scum?