M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[celaph]

Though it would be nice if celaph hadn't coasted so hard ever since he became massively townread

That's a very valid criticism. I haven't done much of note recently.

[ghug]

Oh no. I double posted.

Scum double post

[ghug]

Oh no. I double posted.

Scum double post

[ghug]

I think some very smart handsome person who was me said several days ago that the lack of late scum on the ND wagon suggests that either kgray is scum or there were already two there, which fits nicely into my current tunnel.

I'm pretty sure you said that said that as the start of the current tunnel but I could be wrong.

I don't think it really counted as a tunnel until the start of the day that just ended. I'm pretty sure I first made the argument before damo died.

[aarodactyl]

I think some very smart handsome person who was me said several days ago that the lack of late scum on the ND wagon suggests that either kgray is scum or there were already two there, which fits nicely into my current tunnel.

I'm pretty sure you said that said that as the start of the current tunnel but I could be wrong.

I don't think it really counted as a tunnel until the start of the day that just ended. I'm pretty sure I first made the argument before damo died.

Ok, maybe my mafia terminology is wrong. All I meant is that you've already used this to be suspicious of me. It's still fair to point out, I was just joking about it.

[celaph]

I lied and actually did some rereading

@Celaph

What happened to your suspicions of Chaqa that you had N5?

Hasn't totally gone away, that's why I asked about him earlier in the day.

I also started rereading him (read through about N2) and feel that he looks less sus in hindsight. There are a lot of things that I initially scum leaned for being weird, abnormal, or just stupid that on reread don't seem to fit particularly well within the scum narrative. There were also some details that I forgot about/missed initially that look good for him in hindsight.

The epitome of the former is his "town-core" on D2. I think his justification for why they were town was extremely poor, though on reread I struggle to justify the choice as malicious. His choice of core doesn't seem to fit any plans the scum may have been coordinating at that time and it doesn't even seem to give much credence to bunny as the justification for it is so poor. Another example of this is Chaqa's D1 vote. From my perspective, it was really poorly emphasized but I don't see how scum chaqa survives late game on just that bus.

The best details that I didn't remember were Bunny's message and Jamie's messages. To me, these don't strike me as people pushing for a bus, but rather a mis-kill.

That said, your message inspired me to continue rereading Chaqa and post more thoughts later. My only thought on D3 so far is that Chaqa buddied EMC hard. Meta-wise if that's normal for Chaqa I think he looks townier and if that's abnormal I think he looks worse.

[ghug]

I lied and actually did some rereading

@Celaph

What happened to your suspicions of Chaqa that you had N5?

Hasn't totally gone away, that's why I asked about him earlier in the day.

I also started rereading him (read through about N2) and feel that he looks less sus in hindsight. There are a lot of things that I initially scum leaned for being weird, abnormal, or just stupid that on reread don't seem to fit particularly well within the scum narrative. There were also some details that I forgot about/missed initially that look good for him in hindsight.

The epitome of the former is his "town-core" on D2. I think his justification for why they were town was extremely poor, though on reread I struggle to justify the choice as malicious. His choice of core doesn't seem to fit any plans the scum may have been coordinating at that time and it doesn't even seem to give much credence to bunny as the justification for it is so poor. Another example of this is Chaqa's D1 vote. From my perspective, it was really poorly emphasized but I don't see how scum chaqa survives late game on just that bus.

The best details that I didn't remember were Bunny's message and Jamie's messages. To me, these don't strike me as people pushing for a bus, but rather a mis-kill.

That said, your message inspired me to continue rereading Chaqa and post more thoughts later. My only thought on D3 so far is that Chaqa buddied EMC hard. Meta-wise if that's normal for Chaqa I think he looks townier and if that's abnormal I think he looks worse.

How would pushing a bus look different than pushing a miskill?

[celaph]

I lied and actually did some rereading

@Celaph

What happened to your suspicions of Chaqa that you had N5?

Hasn't totally gone away, that's why I asked about him earlier in the day.

I also started rereading him (read through about N2) and feel that he looks less sus in hindsight. There are a lot of things that I initially scum leaned for being weird, abnormal, or just stupid that on reread don't seem to fit particularly well within the scum narrative. There were also some details that I forgot about/missed initially that look good for him in hindsight.

The epitome of the former is his "town-core" on D2. I think his justification for why they were town was extremely poor, though on reread I struggle to justify the choice as malicious. His choice of core doesn't seem to fit any plans the scum may have been coordinating at that time and it doesn't even seem to give much credence to bunny as the justification for it is so poor. Another example of this is Chaqa's D1 vote. From my perspective, it was really poorly emphasized but I don't see how scum chaqa survives late game on just that bus.

The best details that I didn't remember were Bunny's message and Jamie's messages. To me, these don't strike me as people pushing for a bus, but rather a mis-kill.

That said, your message inspired me to continue rereading Chaqa and post more thoughts later. My only thought on D3 so far is that Chaqa buddied EMC hard. Meta-wise if that's normal for Chaqa I think he looks townier and if that's abnormal I think he looks worse.

How would pushing a bus look different than pushing a miskill?

Upon further consideration, I think I probably haven't given this distinction enough thought. If I'm being honest, thus far it's been mostly a gut judgement. Instinctively, I feel that Jamie/Bunny had little to gain if Chaqa flipped scum and that they cared a lot about how they looked if Chaqa flipped town. But I'm displeased how little of an answer I can give you. Probably worth more thought on my end.

[ghug]

Hasn't totally gone away, that's why I asked about him earlier in the day.

I also started rereading him (read through about N2) and feel that he looks less sus in hindsight. There are a lot of things that I initially scum leaned for being weird, abnormal, or just stupid that on reread don't seem to fit particularly well within the scum narrative. There were also some details that I forgot about/missed initially that look good for him in hindsight.

The epitome of the former is his "town-core" on D2. I think his justification for why they were town was extremely poor, though on reread I struggle to justify the choice as malicious. His choice of core doesn't seem to fit any plans the scum may have been coordinating at that time and it doesn't even seem to give much credence to bunny as the justification for it is so poor. Another example of this is Chaqa's D1 vote. From my perspective, it was really poorly emphasized but I don't see how scum chaqa survives late game on just that bus.

The best details that I didn't remember were Bunny's message and Jamie's messages. To me, these don't strike me as people pushing for a bus, but rather a mis-kill.

That said, your message inspired me to continue rereading Chaqa and post more thoughts later. My only thought on D3 so far is that Chaqa buddied EMC hard. Meta-wise if that's normal for Chaqa I think he looks townier and if that's abnormal I think he looks worse.

How would pushing a bus look different than pushing a miskill?

Upon further consideration, I think I probably haven't given this distinction enough thought. If I'm being honest, thus far it's been mostly a gut judgement. Instinctively, I feel that Jamie/Bunny had little to gain if Chaqa flipped scum and that they cared a lot about how they looked if Chaqa flipped town. But I'm displeased how little of an answer I can give you. Probably worth more thought on my end.

Like this post.

[celaph]

Following up on my earlier comment that I'd reread the rest of Chaqa. I feel day 3 and 4 went in one ear and right out the other with very little substance to note. Nothing since then makes me want to obvtown him, yet I have a very hard time constructing a narrative where he is scum.

The only post that strikes me as odd is the D6 post saying that he thinks Damo was bussed. It just strikes me as odd that he is considering a bus after discounting the possibility of a bus within his town core even after bunny was flipped. That said, this alone isn't that scummy and it was consistent with his belief that Maniac is town since Teacon flipped.

I don't see enough to create a case on my own and there seemed to be a number of people saying that Chaqa is playing like town Chaqa (the one I remember is Flum D5) that I'll have a hard time ever voting him out here.

[Fluminator]

Do you trust someone else's meta read that much?

[bozotheclown]

*new

##VOTE Fluminator

Well at least we know he's knew.

Aaro, what's your mafia experience?

I haven't played on this forum before, but I played a fair bit in college. Not with nearly this many roles though.

I'm going to feel so stupid if aaro does turn out to be scum, but literally everything he's doing that you're scumreading him for can be explained by him being a new player. He doesn't push hard to get wagons on his scumreads - fine. He asks experienced players about people's meta - fine. He isn't confident in his vote - fine.

I get that you can see a scum motivation for it but there's an equally plausible town explanation for it too.

aarodactyl didn't say he was new to mafia.

I’ve said I’ve only played in person and never on a forum or any online setting.

When I read the post from D1, it seems to imply you have played mafia on a forum before, just not "this" forum.

[bozotheclown]

On D2, Chaqa voted 15:39 before EOD, leaving only aarodactyl and Yoyoyozo who had not voted yet. Then, aarodactyl and Yoyoyozo both voted for the first time at 4:01 before EOD, with Yoyoyozo's vote coming in first. This is as odd coincidence. Considering Yoyoyozo was the coordinator, I think it is possible aarodactyl voted in response to something Yoyoyozo said in the QT, then they accidentally posted their votes at the same time.

[bozotheclown]

Me? I can’t sleep and so I’ve been checking in to see if there’s anything new. I don’t have much to contribute, just general confusion at why the brain train happened.

I have to confess, I haven't really focused on you at all. Can you tell me how you have voted and why?

That makes sense. It’s probably hard to separate the new players, especially because none of us are posting a lot.

To answer your question, D1 I started with a meme vote on flum because he suggested we Daykill the new players. I switched to unvote to clarify I wasn’t serious. Then I switched to ND. People pointed out that this was a bad vote because I had previously townread ND. However, I had lost a lot of confidence in my read and also I was fed up with how they were picking a fight with basically everyone. As an aside, I was the third vote on ND so to be honest, I think it only looks bad if maniac ends up being scum (because at that point, I don’t think tea was a top wagon).

For D2, I had intended to read the entire game because I was finally able to tell people apart. I only got to page 50 before giving up. However, based on that, I felt very strongly that brain was town, so I was never going to vote for them. I also felt that HB was scum. I don’t have a great reason for this admittedly. I think it was a combination of their early posting and that brain scumread them early on (I could be wrong about this. I’m on my phone and it makes looking at post history hard). When I voted, there was a wagon on you, hb, and kgray. I think kgray leans town and I thought hb leaned more scum than you so I voted for them. Then when it was between brain and hb at the end of the round, I sat on hb because brain was town in my eyes.

Also as an aside, I don’t think you’re scum anymore. When I said I suspected you based on voting, it was because I thought you jumped on the Teacon train when it was too late to matter. I was told by I think kgray that I could have mattered and after seeing how fast the brain wagon took off, I buy this now. Also looking back in posting, I think you lean town now.

Reading this post from D2 makes me think aarodactyl was paying close attention to how his own voting looked, especially the part about his D1 vote only looking bad if Maniac turned out to be scum. Balki did not even suggest that aarodactyl's voting looked suspicious in his question.

[bozotheclown]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

[bozotheclown]

OMG bozo is on the chopping block? Let’s gooooooooooooooooo
##vote bozotheclown

I'm not fighting you worcej. I want to know what Bunny thinks I said toxic towards you. This is now part of the game. I am not even fighting you despite you calling me gendered names. And it was necessary to add, because you get mad about me butting in but do the same thing. It also had nothing to do with what PE told us to stop talking about (see his quotes) so stop using PE as a means to stop my questioning.

Are we so basic to consider bitch a 'gendered name' or misogyny? This is 2020 people, being a 'bitch' applies to both males and females.

I am not stopping your questions, but you're continuing to provoke me and demonstrate my reason for 'being toxic at you' by adding that last little sarcastic comment and thinking you're oh so clever for it. You made your point with the first two sentences.

Take ghug as an example, he's a live demonstration on how the word can apply to any gender.

##vote worcej

I haven’t done my rereading yet, and to be completely honest, I have no sort of reading in them. I’m voting for two reasons here: 1) I haven’t voted yet and even though I’m planning on posting a lot before EOD, I want to have a placeholder vote and 2) I’m not against voting people because of their behavior.

There is no indication that these votes were related in any way to something that happened in the main thread.

[Hellenic Riot]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

This smells like some damo-tier maths. Surely the probability of making your first vote in *any* specific minute is 1 in... 48 x 60. So the probability of two people making their votes randomly in the same minute is that squared. Which is some absolutely tiny numbers.


Good thing there's nothing random about mafia

[Hellenic Riot]

Also, reading D2, Aaro was clearly around in advance because he'd interacted with worcej about things we shall mention 23 minutes earlier.

The real flaw in your theory is that it requires Yoyoyozo to have done any coordinating whatsoever, though.

[ghug]

There were 23 players D2, so the probability of any 2 players randomly making their first vote in the same minute is 8.43%. The probability of any player randomly making their first vote in the same minute as the coordinator is 0.80%.

This smells like some damo-tier maths. Surely the probability of making your first vote in *any* specific minute is 1 in... 48 x 60. So the probability of two people making their votes randomly in the same minute is that squared. Which is some absolutely tiny numbers.


Good thing there's nothing random about mafia

I'm pretty sure bozo's trolling, but you're calculating the probability of two specific players both voting in the same specific minute. Bozo is calculating the probability that any two players cast their first votes in any particular minute. His math would be correct if mafia were random.

[Hellenic Riot]

Aite so you have three more shots to find the last scum, which should still be more than enough. As a parting gift, my evaluation of the remaining players, from towniest to scummiest:

kgray - Do not daykill
ghug - Do not daykill
celaph - Do not daykill

Chaqa - Probably don't daykill. Pure paranoia suggests Chaqa being right on 4 of the 5 dead scum members is fishy, but still. Surely not. Surely not?!

Bozo - The only person who seems to be throwing shade at multiple people and thus could theoretically be 'lining up the miskills' that the scum would have to be doing here, given he seems to be after Aaro and also Flum, whilst also not exactly fighting hard to prevent Bona's death. Beginning to therefore look a bit more sus. Still struggling to imagine he hardbussed Damo there, but Bozo has been known to bus in the past so it isn't completely out of the question

Aaro - Perhaps I'm wrong on his towniness, though I still struggle to see it. He has been overly concerned with self-protection recently, but is that even especially surprising or damning for a newbie? Bona also spent most of the game only reacting to people scumreading him after all. In pure VCA terms Aaro doesn't really get any credit for any of the deaths though.

Fluminator - Back to the top of my suspicions now that the low-hanging fruit have been removed. Definitely capable of bussing, and there's been plenty discussion of the various issues with things he did D1 & D2... And I do still think he was tying me and Damo together there. Doesn't really get any credit for Damo D5 either, given he voted me and then Bona for most of the day and only joined the Damo wagon when it was in the lead.