M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Tom Bombadil]

##vote Maniac

[damo666]

Can't narrow it down from 45.

I have now. Post to follow.

[damo666]

Players 4 day vote record

Aaro TTSS
Balki STSS
Bona XUSS
Bozo STSS
Celaph XTSS
Chaqa STSS
Flum STXT
Ghug TTXS
Kgray TTSS
Maniac TTTS

and for completion

HR STSS
Vash/Tom STSS
Damo XXSS

I think this makes Balki, Bozo and Chaqa unlikely scum.

So only 21 pairs left!

[damo666]

Of the 7 players that leaves both Bona and Flum are in the too wierd to be scum category.

This leaves the following 5 in order of my scumreading (gaps indicate strength)

Kgray

Maniac
Celaph


Aaro




Ghug

[bozotheclown]

No, but he would have given fake targets, so he would have been caught if he had been the one scanned.

I don't understand how you of all people don't understand that this is the smarter play for the smuggler. Whoever was scanned was eventually dead anyway. A chance at outing the jailer is not worth taking a teammate or two down with you when you go.

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

This is why I think it was a close call for the smuggler whether to give real or fake targets.

The idea of giving the real target for D1 and a fake target for D2 would have been a good option. Durga never said she caught Jamie D2, but the scum could likely deduce that since teacon probably performed the NK D1. However, I think if damo and ghug are the remaining scum, damo likely did target ghug both days.

[bozotheclown]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Isn't this based on the premise that the scum would only vote for town D1 and D2? Considering the amount of bussing we already know about D1 and D2, I would say any group we know voted for town D1 and D2 is less likely to include a scum than a random selection of 4 players.

[bozotheclown]

Choo choo?

So you don’t want damo anymore because reasons?

Reasons are I don't want a runaway wagon halfway through the day.

Why not? You started the damo wagon.

[dargorygel]

The Counting of the Votes at the Getting Closer to the End of the Fifth Day

damo666 (4): bozo, kgray, aarodactyl, celaph
kgray (2): damo, Balki
celaph (2): Bona, ghug
Hellenic Riot (1): flum
Chaqa (1): Maniac
Bozotheclown(1): Chaqa
Maniac (1): Tom

Unvote: HR

If this were 9 ¾ hours from now… damo would be finding out what ‘666’ refers to, really.

Everyone has voted and posted appropriately

[bozotheclown]

So solid that they both got guiltied in the first two nights in a 26 player game, failed to fish a single PR in the process, and sent the roleblocker to do the kills when they had a living goon?

Isn't the theory that they decided to RB and kill neph? If that was the case, it's it best to send jamie to do it? Also in Jamie and Bunny's defense, it was more Durga's good play than their bad player that got them out.

That is the theory. The explanation of why they thought RB-Killing was smart play in this setup is another matter...

I think it makes sense to send Jamie to perform the NK if the remaining goon was the best deep threat, which I believe supports my theory that damo is the smuggler and ghug is the remaining goon.

The scum did not know yet that there was not a watcher, so that could be why Jamie did not RB someone else. He probably RBed Nephthys because there was no reason not to while NKing him, on the off chance Nephthys was an investigative role and was saved.

[bozotheclown]

I still don't know how you guys remember so many past games and remember details of them so well.

I do think Damo is playing subpar. I was scum with him last game and I'm not getting the exact same vibes, but I'm not necessarily feeling town vibes either. He's always been one of the harder players for me to read, so I say we should probably DK him at some point to be safe.

Why not today then?

[bozotheclown]

Getting back to what kgray said about the smuggler, if damo is the smuggler and targeted ghug both nights (which makes sense if ghug is the remaining goon), damo would know that if he gave fake targets and was the player Durga tracked, not only would he be caught immediately, but so would ghug. Giving his real targets would at least out the jailer, and damo may have thought that ghug would not necessarily be implicated if he was later revealed as smuggler, which is true since we will not know for sure that damo gave his real targets if he is revealed as the smuggler. (Although we would have to DK ghug to find out.)

[bozotheclown]

mafia night action predictions:

N1:
BunnyGo (Blackmailer) targeted emc
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted Vecna
damo (Smuggler) targeted ghug
teacon (Goon) NKed rdrivera

N2:
BunnyGo (Blackmailer) targeted aarodactyl
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted and NKed Nephthys
damo (Smuggler) targeted ghug

N3:
Jamie (Roleblocker) targeted damo and NKed emc
Yoyoyozo (Coordinator) assassinated Durga
damo (Smuggler) no target

N4:
ghug (Goon) NKed Vecna
damo (Smuggler) no target

[damo666]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Isn't this based on the premise that the scum would only vote for town D1 and D2? Considering the amount of bussing we already know about D1 and D2, I would say any group we know voted for town D1 and D2 is less likely to include a scum than a random selection of 4 players.

If bussing is more likely than random voting would suggest then your statement is correct. So following that premise we should only vote one of you, Balki, Chaqa and Flum, right?

[bozotheclown]

Getting back to what kgray said about the smuggler, if damo is the smuggler and targeted ghug both nights (which makes sense if ghug is the remaining goon), damo would know that if he gave fake targets and was the player Durga tracked, not only would he be caught immediately, but so would ghug. Giving his real targets would at least out the jailer, and damo may have thought that ghug would not necessarily be implicated if he was later revealed as smuggler, which is true since we will not know for sure that damo gave his real targets if he is revealed as the smuggler. (Although we would have to DK ghug to find out.)

I forgot that we did not know yet that there definitely was a jailer, so damo giving his real targets would also allow him and ghug to survive for a while if Durga had tracked him and there was no real jailer.

[damo666]

Getting back to what kgray said about the smuggler, if damo is the smuggler and targeted ghug both nights (which makes sense if ghug is the remaining goon), damo would know that if he gave fake targets and was the player Durga tracked, not only would he be caught immediately, but so would ghug. Giving his real targets would at least out the jailer, and damo may have thought that ghug would not necessarily be implicated if he was later revealed as smuggler, which is true since we will not know for sure that damo gave his real targets if he is revealed as the smuggler. (Although we would have to DK ghug to find out.)

I trust everyone is following this.

[bozotheclown]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Isn't this based on the premise that the scum would only vote for town D1 and D2? Considering the amount of bussing we already know about D1 and D2, I would say any group we know voted for town D1 and D2 is less likely to include a scum than a random selection of 4 players.

If bussing is more likely than random voting would suggest then your statement is correct. So following that premise we should only vote one of you, Balki, Chaqa and Flum, right?

I am not the one suggesting we choose our DK based on slightly greater probabilities.

[damo666]

@bozo what you seem to be doing is having decided I'm the DK you proceed to backfit everything to indicate that I am the smuggler to justify your choice of DK.

That is is archetypal scumplay (although I don't think you are scum just a misguided tunneller).

[bozotheclown]

Is there any drawback to Durga revealing Y ?

Upside is we have a good discussion point (does this increase the likelihood X is scum or not)

Downside - can't think of one top of my head

Why didn't you consider that Durga revealing Y would tell the mafia which one of their PRs was tracked?

[bozotheclown]

@bozo what you seem to be doing is having decided I'm the DK you proceed to backfit everything to indicate that I am the smuggler to justify your choice of DK.

That is is archetypal scumplay (although I don't think you are scum just a misguided tunneller).

You were already one of my top scum suspects, but then it turned out with Yoyoyozo flipping scum that you are the only possibility for smuggler if the smuggler gave their real targets, and I think there were good reasons for the smuggler to give their real targets. That is why I think you are the best option today, because if it turns out you are the smuggler, we know we have to DK ghug next.

[damo666]

Is there any drawback to Durga revealing Y ?

Upside is we have a good discussion point (does this increase the likelihood X is scum or not)

Downside - can't think of one top of my head

Why didn't you consider that Durga revealing Y would tell the mafia which one of their PRs was tracked?

IIrc at the time we did not know if X was jailer or scum. Yes, revealing Y would tell scum X had been tracked (if X was scum). I don't see that bit of knowledge a few hours in advance of when it was going to be revealed anyway makes that much difference.