M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[aarodactyl]

I based a significant portion of my scum read on Bona based on the fact that they reached out to play among us with Chaqa. To be honest, I still stand by that read but not that strongly anymore. Mostly because there aren’t that many scum left.

I started playing among us with Chaqa because he posted the link to his discord on the webdip discord. It wasn't organized by pm or qt or such.

Oh. I had no idea there was a webdip discord. Whoops

[aarodactyl]

I have hard claimed, and I'm rather bored of repeating it


What do you think about the posts in question that made people townread Bona, though? Do you agree with the reasons people have started townreading him? If not, why are you not challenging it?

I based a significant portion of my scum read on Bona based on the fact that they reached out to play among us with Chaqa. To be honest, I still stand by that read but not that strongly anymore. Mostly because there aren’t that many scum left.

So you have no opinion on the posts that made people townread him?

I’m on my phone right now and can’t really go back and find all of them

[Hellenic Riot]

I based a significant portion of my scum read on Bona based on the fact that they reached out to play among us with Chaqa. To be honest, I still stand by that read but not that strongly anymore. Mostly because there aren’t that many scum left.

So you have no opinion on the posts that made people townread him?

I’m on my phone right now and can’t really go back and find all of them

No rush, still got another 24 hours to go and look at them

[damo666]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

[kgray]

Really Chaqa is the MVP at the moment

How dare you do Durga dirty like that

[Hellenic Riot]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Isn't it also eminently plausible that you and celaph voted town D1 & D2, and that the only reason it isn't possible Bona did too is because Bona unvoted d2...

[aarodactyl]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

[aarodactyl]

ugh, something went wrong and my well worded post got eaten. I'm going to have to rewrite it

[aarodactyl]

The chances of an arbitrary group of 4 survivors of day 1 all voting for a townsperson on both days 1 and 2 assuming random voting is roughly 1 in 9 (as previously shown). However scum vote with info so the chances of such a group being ALL TOWN is LESS THAN 1 in 9.

Now it just so happens that there is a group of 4 who voted town both days: this group is

ghug aaro kgray Maniac

I will be very surprised if there is not at least one scum in those four.

If I am miskilled today (you shouldn't) please consider this post.

I was right last time (Jamie was scum).

I was also right about HB and brain but that's different.

Ok, this post inspired me to get up from bed and go to my computer. Just being Jamie ended up being scum does not mean your math was correct last time.

Since Vecna is dead and can't call you out again, I'm going to do it for them:

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

Also this conversation ended up sidetracking all meaningful discussion last time you brought it up, so I'm not going to engage with this math any further than this post. In the words of someone else that's dead:

Numbers are illegal. This is a word game

[Chaqa]

Man reading Chaqa's ISO absolutely bleeds town on every single factor except for the fact that I don't remember him ever being this right about everyone

I'm starting to think the more I pay attention the worse my reads are

[Chaqa]

Really Chaqa is the MVP at the moment

How dare you do Durga dirty like that

if we let Durga get an MVP her ego will consume the known universe.

[kgray]

Okay. Any reason why you don't think it makes sense for Flum to be the smuggler?

No, but he would have given fake targets, so he would have been caught if he had been the one scanned.

I don't understand how you of all people don't understand that this is the smarter play for the smuggler. Whoever was scanned was eventually dead anyway. A chance at outing the jailer is not worth taking a teammate or two down with you when you go.

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

[kgray]

Really Chaqa is the MVP at the moment

How dare you do Durga dirty like that

if we let Durga get an MVP her ego will consume the known universe.

Nah, HR’s ego already takes up too much space so Durga’s would have nowhere to grow.

[ghug]

No, but he would have given fake targets, so he would have been caught if he had been the one scanned.

I don't understand how you of all people don't understand that this is the smarter play for the smuggler. Whoever was scanned was eventually dead anyway. A chance at outing the jailer is not worth taking a teammate or two down with you when you go.

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

The key is if they weren't tracked and they tell the truth but flip later, whoever they visited is outed. If they were tracked, they and the teammate they visited die either way.

I also think if you're telling the truth about the N1 visit, you still lie about the N2 visit so that you can take a townie down with your.

[Hellenic Riot]

I don't understand how you of all people don't understand that this is the smarter play for the smuggler. Whoever was scanned was eventually dead anyway. A chance at outing the jailer is not worth taking a teammate or two down with you when you go.

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

The key is if they weren't tracked and they tell the truth but flip later, whoever they visited is outed. If they were tracked, they and the teammate they visited die either way.

I also think if you're telling the truth about the N1 visit, you still lie about the N2 visit so that you can take a townie down with your.

Are they, though? If they weren't tracked we have no way of knowing if they told the truth. Are you suggesting that we should automatically kill the people the Smuggler claimed to jail if we kill them first? That seems rather contrary to the way you're also arguing that we can't put any faith into them whatsoever...

[ghug]

I don't understand how you of all people don't understand that this is the smarter play for the smuggler. Whoever was scanned was eventually dead anyway. A chance at outing the jailer is not worth taking a teammate or two down with you when you go.

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

The key is if they weren't tracked and they tell the truth but flip later, whoever they visited is outed. If they were tracked, they and the teammate they visited die either way.

I also think if you're telling the truth about the N1 visit, you still lie about the N2 visit so that you can take a townie down with your.

I think if someone had two weird-ass visits and flipped smuggler, we'd probably kill those they visited. I'm also receiving enough resistance to this idea that I think it's fair to say there would have been substantial pressure on the smuggler's visit claims after they flipped. I also know for a fact the smuggler lied, though I felt this way before I knew that. too. Just something for my poor little ego to feast on while it tries to get as big as yours

[Hellenic Riot]

I don’t really understand this. Assuming Durga did track the smuggler: if the smuggler lies they get caught immediately, like bunny did. If they’re honest they might have a chance at surviving one more DK by going head-to-head with the jailer. Either way, once they flip, the person they visited on the night Durga tracked them is outed. So why is lying “better” when it has the same outcome but they die and confirm their teammate earlier? Just in the off-chance that Durga didn’t track them?

If anything, it makes sense for the smuggler to know that, if tracked, they were tracked N1 because Jamie was already outed for killing Neph N2, and they wouldn’t need to be honest about their N2 visit. So damo being smuggler and saying he’d have jailed ghug both nights could be damo protecting the third teammate that he smuggled N2.

I’ll also point out that damo mentioned reads of ghug twice before D3, once to give him a vague townread and once to include him in a list of possible scum who voted for town. So it really makes no sense at all that he’d jail ghug.

The key is if they weren't tracked and they tell the truth but flip later, whoever they visited is outed. If they were tracked, they and the teammate they visited die either way.

I also think if you're telling the truth about the N1 visit, you still lie about the N2 visit so that you can take a townie down with your.

I think if someone had two weird-ass visits and flipped smuggler, we'd probably kill those they visited. I'm also receiving enough resistance to this idea that I think it's fair to say there would have been substantial pressure on the smuggler's visit claims after they flipped. I also know for a fact the smuggler lied, though I felt this way before I knew that. too. Just something for my poor little ego to feast on while it tries to get as big as yours

You do?

[Hellenic Riot]

Am I missing where that become known fact

[aarodactyl]

Am I missing where that become known fact

I vaguely recall someone saying that they went through the list and no one put down two possible scum. The exception is that Damo put down Ghug twice. So of course Ghug would say that the smuggler had to have lied. I haven’t double checked this though

[ghug]

Am I missing where that become known fact

Damo is the only person who claimed to visit live players both nights, and both of them were me. That's why bozo's on his little crusade.