M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Hellenic Riot]

The first time you actually scumread me was a day later after I'd pushed on how weird it was you were so happy to coast on my damoread and had started to scumread you. And yet apparently you were convinced brainbomb was obvtown because of how scummy my push on him was

Full
Of
Shit

[ghug]

Hmmmm should I do something fun today and read a book or game, or should I go through all this garbage to try and figure out this game before I die this evening?

Our poor final PR saved you for a reason.

[celaph]

Oh, dont vanish now Celaph, were talking.

Sorry. Was 4 in the morning. Really should not have even been awake when I was.

[celaph]

Also, Durga, you should impress upon some of the newer players how certain you are on some of your townreads.

I dont want to have to battle Aaro down the road if im not NK'd tonight

Why is aaro the name you give here?

[Vecna]

Also, Durga, you should impress upon some of the newer players how certain you are on some of your townreads.

I dont want to have to battle Aaro down the road if im not NK'd tonight

Why is aaro the name you give here?

Because he seems like the person that wont be easily convinced by me, but thatll be way more usefull if hes hunting for others

[Vecna]

Damo

Tom


HR
Chaqa
Flum

Ghug
Bozo
Kgray
Aaro
Vecna
celaph
Yoyo

Maniac
Bona

Balki



Jamie


Revised list. HR, Chaqa and Flum grouped together based on Day 1 teacon voting. Of course there could be bussing but I'm giving benefit of the doubt. Likeliest busser is Flum imo but Chaqa is known to be fond of bussing.

I know the day is kind of dead but I don't see why we can't start discussing tomorrow's dk. At least then durga and the next NK can pitch in.

I'd be up for any of Balki Bona or Maniac

@Vecna you asked how my reads were progressing. No real change since the above post except Maniac trending upwards due to his quasi analysis and Bozo's recent activity has nudged him down a tad. I no longer classify him as 'obvtown.'

Bozo: Look its a votecount! This person did not vote flipped scum, it must be scum!
Everyone: Wooooow, so towny bozo
Bozo: Now let me argue with flum for 3 pages throwing arguments in his face, be persistend and on the attack
Everyone: Yikes, guess we were all wrong, that must be scum

[Vecna]

Also, Durga, you should impress upon some of the newer players how certain you are on some of your townreads.

I dont want to have to battle Aaro down the road if im not NK'd tonight

You want me to certify you as 95 percent town or something? It'll cost you

you can do better than that

[Durga]

I just don't want to give bozo credit for it because it's such an easy meta to replicate and it took him till like day 4 to do it

[Vecna]

I also feel the way that Flum suddenly magicked up the strength of his scumreads on ghug & I D3 stinks of someone who thought they were the guilty

Idgi

It didn't feel like natural progression, it felt like calculated scum theatre to suddenly come up with unjustified scumreads that could look like busses if he flipped.

I sort of like this post

[Fluminator]

Srsly Durga what is foxcastle syndrome lol.

[Fluminator]

Also HR is probably wrong but phoneposting rn so don't feel like responding.

[Vecna]

I just don't want to give bozo credit for it because it's such an easy meta to replicate and it took him till like day 4 to do it

Ill grant to Kgray that I probably switched my read way too quickly. Im mostly suspicious of how the thread is moving, and it feels that scum decided he is to be the next misskill. Especially now that he's doing stuff that at least is more in line with how he actually plays as town.

[Vecna]

Damo

Tom


HR
Chaqa
Flum

Ghug
Bozo
Kgray
Aaro
Vecna
celaph
Yoyo

Maniac
Bona

Balki



Jamie


Revised list. HR, Chaqa and Flum grouped together based on Day 1 teacon voting. Of course there could be bussing but I'm giving benefit of the doubt. Likeliest busser is Flum imo but Chaqa is known to be fond of bussing.

I know the day is kind of dead but I don't see why we can't start discussing tomorrow's dk. At least then durga and the next NK can pitch in.

I'd be up for any of Balki Bona or Maniac

@Vecna you asked how my reads were progressing. No real change since the above post except Maniac trending upwards due to his quasi analysis and Bozo's recent activity has nudged him down a tad. I no longer classify him as 'obvtown.'

Also, you were agreeing with me (and jamiet) d2 that Bozo was hella suspicious and you were wagoning him with us.

So how come he's "down a tad" from being pretty high on the townreads list?

[Jamiet99uk]

I am winning this election,
BY A LOT!

[bozotheclown]

Responding to Bozo's post here (don't want to take up a bunch of space with a quote).

It felt reactive to me not because you didn't scum read flum earlier, but because I don't feel that you make that series of posts if flum doesn't make his. I based this mostly off of your N3 reads list that has flum more or less in the middle and your first post after flum's post. While you do say that flum is moving down your list, you also say that he looks more town in responding to Durga's claim. That phrasing doesn't make me think flum fell too far on your list probably putting him around 5th scummiest person. I don't see you writing these unprompted about your read on the 5th scummiest person. That's why it feels reactive.

On rereading it, I still found many points that I felt where likely NAI, but I also think I let those points play too prominent of a role in my initial understanding as there are some good points, like the one bozo highlighted, that don't look great for flum.

I think that it is true I was prompted to make my case on Fluminator at that time by him making a case on me, because I felt he was being misleading in some of the things he said, such as that I was online D1 EOD and failed to vote for one of the lead wagons.

[bozotheclown]

If Nephytys is usually a good player he's probably scum. If not I see him being overconfident town who picks something and rolls with it whatever happens.

Don't forget about Jamiet.

Don't let Bunny continue to slip under the radar either. He might be town, but I think he needs more pressure.

Bus Jamie, bus BunnyGo, discredit Nephthys right before he gets killed?

I feel if Bozo is actually reading as attentively as he claims, he would know this is not a very original take and has already been brought up multiple times.

I did not claim it was original, I also brought up the points Nephthys made N2, since he is no longer around to bring them up.

[aarodactyl]

<Lots of math from Maniac. I'm still quoting it so people have an easier time jumping to it>

<aaro response to maniac>

My apologies if I didn't make things clear. As I say above to celaph the numbers are just a way of quantifying my thoughts. The underlying premise is this. Town players scum read independently. Scum want to survive by mis-killing townies. To do this a common tactic is to scum read players who are heavily scum read by others. This gives them the flexibility to join those trains if they develop.

You're right that I just picked 'to five scumreads' off top of my head. You're also right that I and others didn't produce read lists. You or others could deduce who we are all scum reading by our posts I suppose for completeness.

Yeah. I got the point of it and I didn’t really emphasize that I thought it was good. However, I don’t think it makes sense to look at where someone was on your ranking except if they fell in the bottom 5 on bozos aggregate list. Then they needed an adjusted score. That’s why I pointed out that Damo would be the most suspicious based on that.

Also I think “top 5” makes sense. I don’t think you cycled through values to pick a certain one. I just meant, it makes all of this a little arbitrary.

[bozotheclown]

So I've been doing a bit of thinking, (I know this doesn't happen often, but bear with me)

So if we set up a game of 18 players 1 Alan, 2 Betty, 3 Carl.....18 Roberta and asked them to list everybody from town to scum out the gate, the lists wouldn't mean much (obviously). But if we then scored those lists with Alan =1, Betty =2, etc. We'd see that Alan's list would add up to 170 (2+3+4........+18) and Roberta's list would add up to 153 (1+2+3.......+17). This is fairly obvious, Alan excludes a low number: 1. And Roberta excludes the highest number: 18.

So this tells us that the people at the bottom of the list should have a lower overall score. Now rather than asking them to list all the players we ask them to list just five players, we would still expect the players at the bottom of the list to have slightly lower overall scores for their top 5 scum.

Now rather than list the players alphabetically, we list them like bozo did in his experiment.

We should still expect people at the bottom of the list to have a slightly lower number than those at the top of the list. (Hope you're all still with me).

IF however, people at the bottom of the list have substaintially HIGHER totals for the five scum we could deduce one of two things:

(1) Perhaps players who are regarded as scum by their piers (and are therefore bottom of the list) are really good at identifying scum bahaviour.
(2) Players who are regarded as scum are trying to get other players mis-killed and they think if they list the players others see as scum as scum, they can get easily kills.

I think (2) is more likely than (1).

So if we now look at players in the middle of Bozo's list 8 - Flum and 9 - Bozo.
Flum lists Ghug, Damo, HR, Balki & Bozo as his top 5 scum (obviously excluding Jamie) for a score of 52.

Bozo on the other hand lists Damo, Bona, Chaqa, Yoyo & Balki as his scum reads for a total score of 68.

I deduce from this that Flum is town and is scum reading people independently and Bozo is scum who wants to scum read players he thinks the group will kill in order to save himself. (Obv he could also be listed fellow scum here).

So based on the above logic town to scum list would look something like this...

Flum (52)
Ghug (54)
Vecna (56)
HR (58)
Kgray (59)
Damo (65)
Chaqa (around 66)
Celaph (67)
Aarodactyl (68)
Bozo (68)

Yoyo, Balki and I didn't compile lists. Nor did Tom, Durga and EMC but we know now they're all town. If someone wanted to read through yoyo, Balki and me and score us against bozo's list to give us notional scores, that'll be good.

So with all that in mind. ##voteBozo

I don't think we can deduce any of the things you say we can deduce.
(1) If a person towards the bottom of Bozo's list has a high score, it means they have included 5 people also near the bottom. Those people may or may not be scum so why do you assume that a town member on the bottom who listed 5 others at the bottom has an above average ability to find scum? They found the same suspicious people everyone else has found (minus themselves).
(2) If a scum ranks someone as scum, why does that make the person they ranked town? Could they not be trying to bus?

Even granting all your erroneous assumptions, why is scum Bozo your conclusion here? Excluding Jamie, Bozo is the 7th scummiest person on his list. That's not even particularly close to the bottom. For comparison, Bozo and myself have rather similar scores on Bozo's list (I'm only 0.09 higher) and we show up rather similarly on your list. Do you scum read me similarly? If so, why aren't I mentioned?

I've clearly explained my thoughts badly as I'm not saying what you think I'm saying. I think you may also be confusing what Bozos list is all about (or I am idk).

Bozos list ranks players by how OTHERS see them, not by how they see others.

The general principle behind my thinking is this. Town will make independent reads as to who is scum. Scum care about surviving so want to get others mis-killed. If they see a town player getting scum read they will scum read them too which gives them the option to jump on their train later if needs be. So if a scum player sees a lot of town players scum reading me for example, they follow that lead and scum read me too and my mis-kill becomes more likely.

The scum may also have wanted to keep their options open and not document their scum reads in that detail, and therefore chose not to participate.

[aarodactyl]

Also, Durga, you should impress upon some of the newer players how certain you are on some of your townreads.

I dont want to have to battle Aaro down the road if im not NK'd tonight

Why is aaro the name you give here?

I think I’m one of the only people that are learning scum on them (I think?) and I’ve been town read by pretty much everyone beside Ghug (again, I think. I’m on my phone and not going to go back to check)

[aarodactyl]

Hmmmm should I do something fun today and read a book or game, or should I go through all this garbage to try and figure out this game before I die this evening?

Our poor final PR saved you for a reason.

To be fair, it gives us the knowledge that there is a priest. That was probably value enough. I would like to hear durga’s opinions but the post count has grown a lot. And she is on her death bed.