M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Vecna]

was it celaph that did the QT thing?

[damo666]

Suggestions we should vote anyone other than Jamie is plain bonkers.

[Vecna]

How are your reads advancing Damo?

[Maniac]

So I've been doing a bit of thinking, (I know this doesn't happen often, but bear with me)

So if we set up a game of 18 players 1 Alan, 2 Betty, 3 Carl.....18 Roberta and asked them to list everybody from town to scum out the gate, the lists wouldn't mean much (obviously). But if we then scored those lists with Alan =1, Betty =2, etc. We'd see that Alan's list would add up to 170 (2+3+4........+18) and Roberta's list would add up to 153 (1+2+3.......+17). This is fairly obvious, Alan excludes a low number: 1. And Roberta excludes the highest number: 18.

So this tells us that the people at the bottom of the list should have a lower overall score. Now rather than asking them to list all the players we ask them to list just five players, we would still expect the players at the bottom of the list to have slightly lower overall scores for their top 5 scum.

Now rather than list the players alphabetically, we list them like bozo did in his experiment.

We should still expect people at the bottom of the list to have a slightly lower number than those at the top of the list. (Hope you're all still with me).

IF however, people at the bottom of the list have substaintially HIGHER totals for the five scum we could deduce one of two things:

(1) Perhaps players who are regarded as scum by their piers (and are therefore bottom of the list) are really good at identifying scum bahaviour.
(2) Players who are regarded as scum are trying to get other players mis-killed and they think if they list the players others see as scum as scum, they can get easily kills.

I think (2) is more likely than (1).

So if we now look at players in the middle of Bozo's list 8 - Flum and 9 - Bozo.
Flum lists Ghug, Damo, HR, Balki & Bozo as his top 5 scum (obviously excluding Jamie) for a score of 52.

Bozo on the other hand lists Damo, Bona, Chaqa, Yoyo & Balki as his scum reads for a total score of 68.

I deduce from this that Flum is town and is scum reading people independently and Bozo is scum who wants to scum read players he thinks the group will kill in order to save himself. (Obv he could also be listed fellow scum here).

So based on the above logic town to scum list would look something like this...

Flum (52)
Ghug (54)
Vecna (56)
HR (58)
Kgray (59)
Damo (65)
Chaqa (around 66)
Celaph (67)
Aarodactyl (68)
Bozo (68)

Yoyo, Balki and I didn't compile lists. Nor did Tom, Durga and EMC but we know now they're all town. If someone wanted to read through yoyo, Balki and me and score us against bozo's list to give us notional scores, that'll be good.

So with all that in mind. ##voteBozo

I don't think we can deduce any of the things you say we can deduce.
(1) If a person towards the bottom of Bozo's list has a high score, it means they have included 5 people also near the bottom. Those people may or may not be scum so why do you assume that a town member on the bottom who listed 5 others at the bottom has an above average ability to find scum? They found the same suspicious people everyone else has found (minus themselves).
(2) If a scum ranks someone as scum, why does that make the person they ranked town? Could they not be trying to bus?

Even granting all your erroneous assumptions, why is scum Bozo your conclusion here? Excluding Jamie, Bozo is the 7th scummiest person on his list. That's not even particularly close to the bottom. For comparison, Bozo and myself have rather similar scores on Bozo's list (I'm only 0.09 higher) and we show up rather similarly on your list. Do you scum read me similarly? If so, why aren't I mentioned?

I've clearly explained my thoughts badly as I'm not saying what you think I'm saying. I think you may also be confusing what Bozos list is all about (or I am idk).

Bozos list ranks players by how OTHERS see them, not by how they see others.

The general principle behind my thinking is this. Town will make independent reads as to who is scum. Scum care about surviving so want to get others mis-killed. If they see a town player getting scum read they will scum read them too which gives them the option to jump on their train later if needs be. So if a scum player sees a lot of town players scum reading me for example, they follow that lead and scum read me too and my mis-kill becomes more likely.

[Vecna]

Also, Durga, you should impress upon some of the newer players how certain you are on some of your townreads.

I dont want to have to battle Aaro down the road if im not NK'd tonight

[Vecna]

hi celaph. Are you having fun so far? Did you have any issues with the QT?

QT?

Aha. It was him

And now Ghug is doing the same gimmick.

Either to make the slot look doubly bad, or just because it is what it looks like?

The attack on Bozo from Ghug/Celaph also looks coordinated and to come out of nowhere.

[Vecna]

I sort of want to flip Ghug today

[Vecna]

If Ghug flips communicator the game is over

[Vecna]

someone should cross reference Celaph posting with Ghug being online

[Vecna]

Ghug being communicator and being able to puppet master his entire team would also explain his high energy and why he's willing to put in so much work.

Thoughts, Durga?

[Vecna]

Thoughts, jamiet?

[Maniac]

<Lots of math from Maniac. I'm still quoting it so people have an easier time jumping to it>

I'm going to summary what I understand of the post, partly to make sure I'm understanding it alright (it took be several rereads) and to help anyone else trying to decipher it. Also I think there's definitely some good stuff in here. (I also feel obligated to weigh in on every math post)

Here are my summaries (and a few observations about the math)
-If assign values to each player with 1 being the most town (durga) and 17 being the most scum (Bona), the total sum of the five most scummy players is 80.
-If you're trying to guess the five most scummy players, we can assign your list of guesses a value by adding up the people on your list.
-If you're not in the top 5 scummy players (as defined by the aggregated list), your max score is 75 = 17+16+15+14+13
-If you're bona, your max score is 70 = 16+15+14+13+12 since you can't include yourself on your list
-As you move townier on the list, the maximum increases by one as you move towards town (until you hit 75). The players impacted by changed totals are Bona, damo, maniac, balki, and yoyo. We would expect theses players to have slightly lower totals than everyone else (the ELI5 reason is that they can't put themselves).

My issues with Maniac's conclusions:
-Out of the bottom 5, the only people this applies to is Bona and Damo. The other three didn't submit lists. (I have opinions about Maniac reading lists this much considering they didn't submit one...)
-I don't really agree with their methodology for saying higher scores are the most suspicious. However, if you do care about it, I think this makes Damo the most suspicious. Their list was 65/71 = 91.5% and the next highest was me and bozo at 90.6%.
-Also top 5 is a super arbitrary cutoff. I haven't gone through any other choices for 5, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're different

I think it's very suspicious to make an analysis of people at the bottom of the ranking while being at the bottom of the rating and not including yourself because you didn't include a list. I also think this post is a whole lot of nothing. So here's my revised list after this post:

Vecna
Aaro
Maniac
Damo

That was my list for math posting so far. I don't really know how this impacts where I put Maniac on my list because I'm not yet good at differentiating bad math from math that's designed to distract from actually finding scum.

Also in what world do we vote out anyone besides Jamie?

My apologies if I didn't make things clear. As I say above to celaph the numbers are just a way of quantifying my thoughts. The underlying premise is this. Town players scum read independently. Scum want to survive by mis-killing townies. To do this a common tactic is to scum read players who are heavily scum read by others. This gives them the flexibility to join those trains if they develop.

You're right that I just picked 'to five scumreads' off top of my head. You're also right that I and others didn't produce read lists. You or others could deduce who we are all scum reading by our posts I suppose for completeness.

[Jamiet99uk]

Am I still alive?

[Maniac]

Am I still alive?

Yep, reports of your death have been grossly over exaggerated. We'll just toy with you for a few more mores like a fish on a murderous fisherman's line.

[ghug]

well, the commentary went into the quote.

Regardless, those things are very helpfull ghug.

Maybe it's cause it's 6AM, but your commentary is even harder to read than my post.

[ghug]

Ive cut out a lot to do some commentary
-I need to start relying a lot more on that "slips that he knows the person is town" read I did on Bo there. That shit has never failed me yet.
-You make one note on a Flum interaction where Jamiet asks him to vote. Does this negate all the rest? Because I cannot help but notice that Flum is grouped with towns in most of the reads. Several of your logic in other places would conclude Flum doesnt look too great.
-Why not make mention of Celaph? You jump straight to theorizing that he listed all towns twice. First of all, thanks for correctly assuming im town. But why do this for Celaph as well?
-I think it shows a bit of a pattern here. Loads of interacting and trying to convince/talk to townies. Just blank reads, little interactions with scumteammates but just "deduced" scumreads. Agree with this assesment?
-If bozo does end up being town here, do you still think it looks overall good on Flum still?

-Can you point me to what specifically you think makes Flum look bad?
-I think I mentioned celaph several times. The "does he only townread town" is rhetorical. I feel like he'd probably townread a teammate at least.
-He yelled a ton at/about Bunny. I could see him doing similarly with other teammates. He didn't talk about teacon a whole lot. Largely I agree with your assessment.
-Town bozo is worse for Flum to the extent that it clarifies the POE, but I think that's about it. Most of what has turned me off of scumreading Flum is the interactions with Jamie in a vacuum and how over the top he's been with scumreading the scum (what bozo finds suspicious.

[ghug]

Well, I will say that I think it's unlikely scum!ghug puts this much effort into a reread. Honestly probably town

While I agree, I still feel he makes certain assumptions very easily

He states twice that he thinks all town are listed while me and Celaph are in the list. He does this while at the same time throwing a little shade in like half of the comments he mentions of me and how I interacted with Jamiet.

I also feel hes giving Flum a bit of an easy treatment. If bozo is scum that is all well and good, but if Bozo flips town when we end up killing him this is probably quite the red herring.

I also still think its very possible that Ghug was actually upset that Bo replaced out and he got Jamiet in return. (the statement that whatever caused Bo to replace out hopefully is causing him pain). I know this will be ridiculed with content for Bo, but the reaction just stood out.

I just really really hate bo.

[ghug]

And in his huge analysis posts he just handed me the easiest of townreads twice to formulate a townread on you.

while it is very easy to think that Jamiet wouldve listed at least one scumread in his town townreads. Yet he did not.

I love how focused you are on a misread of a couple of statements as literal.

[ghug]

hi celaph. Are you having fun so far? Did you have any issues with the QT?

QT?

Aha. It was him

And now Ghug is doing the same gimmick.

Either to make the slot look doubly bad, or just because it is what it looks like?

The attack on Bozo from Ghug/Celaph also looks coordinated and to come out of nowhere.

The attack on bozo?

I think his stuff arguments are garbage. I don't think that makes him scum.

[Vecna]

Ive cut out a lot to do some commentary
-I need to start relying a lot more on that "slips that he knows the person is town" read I did on Bo there. That shit has never failed me yet.
-You make one note on a Flum interaction where Jamiet asks him to vote. Does this negate all the rest? Because I cannot help but notice that Flum is grouped with towns in most of the reads. Several of your logic in other places would conclude Flum doesnt look too great.
-Why not make mention of Celaph? You jump straight to theorizing that he listed all towns twice. First of all, thanks for correctly assuming im town. But why do this for Celaph as well?
-I think it shows a bit of a pattern here. Loads of interacting and trying to convince/talk to townies. Just blank reads, little interactions with scumteammates but just "deduced" scumreads. Agree with this assesment?
-If bozo does end up being town here, do you still think it looks overall good on Flum still?

-Can you point me to what specifically you think makes Flum look bad?
-I think I mentioned celaph several times. The "does he only townread town" is rhetorical. I feel like he'd probably townread a teammate at least.
-He yelled a ton at/about Bunny. I could see him doing similarly with other teammates. He didn't talk about teacon a whole lot. Largely I agree with your assessment.
-Town bozo is worse for Flum to the extent that it clarifies the POE, but I think that's about it. Most of what has turned me off of scumreading Flum is the interactions with Jamie in a vacuum and how over the top he's been with scumreading the scum (what bozo finds suspicious.

You apply the grouping logic to jamiets reads. You apply the logic "this pairing probably concludes scum". Yet you dont mention him being part of the null groupings in plenty of places, where if you follow your same consistent logic, is also pretty possible to contain a scum. Then later on you find a single comment to townread him over. Its just something I noticed, since you do the same to Celaph/me and it looked odd