MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh wait, you're talking about D3, not D4. You made a mistake but I see what you mean. Yes EoD3 was a mess. Ok, I will in fairness re-do your VCA for the first 4 days.


Thamrick
========

Day 1: Voted for Bozo, then moved to RagingIke. Was online at EoD and did *not* move off RagingIke when Ike claimed. Bozo (VT) was lynched over RagingIke.

Day 2: No vote until the last two minutes when he joined the Stressedlines wagon. Stressedlines (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 3: Briefly voted for Bo_Sox but then moved onto Snowy. Jumped onto Telamor at the very end. Telamor (VT) was lynched over Snowy.

Day 4: Briefly voted for Peter then got on Balki. Balki (VT) was lynched over Ezio.

ANALYSIS: If Snowy is scum this makes it appear Thamrick jumped in to save him, two nights running. If Snowy is town and those were both Town vs Town EoDs, then I dunno.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Jamie - He claimed with what, 5 mins left til EoD? I just tend to think that’s more a scummy move to save themselves/draw a CC than a legit town play.

This is nonsense. As a Town PR you don't want to claim until you really have to. Ike only claimed once he'd been pushed into the lead by Reedeer1/Foxcastle's vote. You think Town PR's should claim early or as soon as there's a viable wagon on them? Don't be silly.

[Foxcastle]

I compiled a brief summary of scumreads of our Dearly Departed townies. I was pretty lazy, and didn’t do a lot of digging beyond EON reads or votes.

Based on the last 5 town deaths (which is somewhat arbitrary as “the most recent half”, but I think the earlier votes don’t count as much since they lack a lot of information the more recently alive would have used), here’s where known townies thought we should lynch.

1. Thamrick (3)
2. DrCJG (3)
3. Ezio (3)
4. Rdrivera (2)
5. Snowy (2)
6. Foxcastle (2)
7. Jamiet (1)
8. TrPrado (1)

Where there were ties, I tried to put them in order of most recent scumread, but the top 3 are pretty consistent.

RagingIke—EON6 reads…
“look at Fox, look at RDR, look at Thamrick, look at DrCJG in that order.”
“I townread Jamie and feel he is one of the few people doing work around here.”

Foxcastle, Rdrivera, Thamrick, DrCJG

Peterlund— EON5 reads…
Scum: Dargorygel Jamie Snowy RagingIke (rdrivera if not Ike is scum)
Scummish: Thamrick yavuzovic
Null: DrCJG foxcastle Ezio TrPrado

Jamiet, Snowy, Rdrivera

DemonRHK—Pretty hard Snowy read. Spent D3 on him entirely, and D4 voting for Snowy until switching to Peter at the very end. Right after EOD4, “We have 1 mislynch left. D5 before goin back to look more at this should be between snowy, peter, and Ezio I guess”.

Snowy, Ezio

Balki—Ended D4 on Ezio, after a brief visit to DrCJG and Thamrick. His D3 votes moved around plenty, spending some time on Jamiet and Tham.

EON3, “My top scum reads right now are RagingIke, Thamrick, DrC, Ezio…Yavuz?”
Scumreads: Thamrick (“If RagingIke is Town, then my scum Thamrick read would be stronger.”), Ezio (based on lurking), DrCJG (also based on lurking). Snowy was null.

Thamrick, DrCJG, Ezio

Ghug—Final reads EON3, from scum to town. These are the first 8 (scummy): Ike, Ezio, Tham, Fox, RHK, DrC, Prado, Balki; these are the last 8 (towny): Peter, Yav, Bo, Darg, Rd, Jamie, Snowy, ghug. He spent most of D2 on Ezio, and then all of D3 on Telamor.

Ezio, Tham, Fox, DrCJG, TrPrado

Telamor—Before he was lynched on D3 (he vanished 9 hours out), he scumread: Ike, followed by “Snowy, Balki, Tham, or Jamie”.

He had a lot of if-then reads there, too. “…if either Balki or Snowy flipped scum it seems likely the other would be too. The same stands for Balki and Tham. If Jamie flipped scum it would, at least to me, give snowy a townread.” It’s probably not all that useful to follow that line of thinking too closely this far along, but for Telamor, Balki’s flip would have made Snowy and Tham more towny looking.

Teacher—“I am positive snowy is scum. And ghug.” (EON2, p. 55). He moved his D1 vote around plenty, including onto Snowy, TrPrado, and Ezio, but spent most of D2 on Snowy. EON1, his living scumreads include: Ezio (“null scumlean”), Reedeer/Foxcastle, Snowy, TrPrado (“Best Godfather bet.”) His living EON1 townreads include: DrCJG, Jamiet, Thamrick, Yavuz.

Teacher did a lot of thinking out loud and analysis of plays rather than listing his reads of players, and I’m just skimming to get his reads at this point, but why kill teacher, a new player, so early? If Xorxes was a fear kill, what was Teacher? The scumteam that let Ike live for that long is probably too smart to kill Teacher if he was too clearly on the right track, but maybe it was just because Teacher had put a lot of theories out that they hoped we’d get bogged down in.

Stressedlines—Pretty much nothing here. Voted Snowy on D2.

Xorxes—His final scumreads included: Balki, Telamor, Peterlund, rdrivera, which he rated as “scumish” having no strong scumreads at the end of N1. (All his D1 votes are accounted for as Town, except what might be a joke post on Reedeer that he moved off of after 15 minutes at the very start of game.)

His townreads that are still alive included: TrPrado, Yavuz, Jamiet, DrCJG, Thamrick.

Bozo— Final reads: “Ike, teacher, dargorygel, and Ezio are my top scum suspects.” Had also previously voted RagingIke and Peterlund, as well as a very early vote (p.10) on Ezio. Ezio is the only unaccounted read.

[Jamiet99uk]

Happy with Thamrick vs Snowy today. Looks like Scum vs Scum. Both are informative lynches.

[snowy801]

I did think Ike was 100% lying when during the first night. Closer to day/night 4 that confidence waned a lot, but ultimately it didn't matter whether or not I believed he were the doctor because that's not something that needs speculation - either there would be a counterclaim or he is

I was insisting he wasn't the doctor regardless because a) if he is, I hoped that would reduce the chance of his being nk'd and b) I kind of hoped some scum player would try to cc him on the off chance that they were that dumb but mostly c) I was still very dubious about his claim

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok Snowy thanks.

Do you think that Thamrick is scum?

[snowy801]

I didn't, last time I checked
though to be fair that was like 3 days and 5 deaths ago

[Jamiet99uk]

I didn't, last time I checked
though to be fair that was like 3 days and 5 deaths ago

Why don't you try reading the game now?

[Ezio]

Foxcastle why is your analysis so trash this game?

Let's have a look at Balki's analysis at the end of his life and compare it to what you posted.


Your summary was completely bullshit and entirely missed everything balki was talking about on his last day. You somehow got the idea that because he ended on me I was his strongest scumread and his vote on thamrick was passing.

Your quote:
"Balki—Ended D4 on Ezio, after a brief visit to DrCJG and Thamrick. His D3 votes moved around plenty, spending some time on Jamiet and Tham.
"

"
If RagingIke is Town, Foxcastle and peterlund are likely both scum (both seem to have assumed that RagingIke was Town, even though they say that they think he is Scum)
"

"
If I flip today:

Rdrivera and Snowy are town.

I think Thamrick is scum.
"

When he voted me immediately before EoD:
"
Damn @@vote Ezio

I know I'm town.
"

[Ezio]

Jesus I feel like I'm brainbomb with all these quotes but jesus. You guys have missed an absurd amount of quality posts and are either scum trying to mislead people or you all simply suck.

Foxcastle is way better than that when he's town.

[Jamiet99uk]

I like this version of Ezio that actually takes part.

[DrCJG]

Hey all I am moving this weekend. I promise to read up and get some posts in to Igor as well as indicate some times I’ll check in tomorrow.

[Jamiet99uk]

Who is Igor?

[TrPrado]

You’ve got a real knack for asking questions with obvious answers, Jamie. L

[Jamiet99uk]

Who is Jamie L?

[Jamiet99uk]

@TrPrado after all that has happened do you still think I'm scum?

Do you think Thamrick is scum?

[TrPrado]

@TrPrado after all that has happened do you still think I'm scum?

Do you think Thamrick is scum?

After rereading some bits, there are things that really shake my faith in thinking you could be scum.

Meanwhile, thamrick seems like a pretty likely candidate for the scum team.

[Ezio]

Is it possible to hedge anymore?

[yavuzovic]

When I look at Ezio's and Jamiet's message, I don't see their reasons for voting Thamrick. Did I miss anything scummy about Thamrick, or they are random-voting. Because I don't remember anything.

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?user=*drcjg&g=36
^ I felt under pressure while reading him. I wonder why he pressed me very hard.

[yavuzovic]

And this is my last day actually. I will post twice after the turn ends so I can survive without being modkilled, but I won't be able to post anymore.
So the bad new is that: Today is actually MyLo:
Current: 6t - 3m
After we lynch a town: 5t - 3m
And EoN7 (NK + me): 3t - 3m - WE LOSE
We must lynch a scum, or no-lynch. If you can survive until D8, my death and the nightkill will tell you a lot.