M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Durga]

Numbers are illegal. This is a word game

[damo666]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

The fact that actions are not uniformly random strengthens the argument that four people voting townies 2 days in a row are unlikely to be all town.

[kgray]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

The fact that actions are not uniformly random strengthens the argument that four people voting townies 2 days in a row are unlikely to be all town.

This is absolute nonsense and you know it.

[ghug]

This is not equivalent to what you suggested.

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.

What's the difference between the difference between the thing before the and before the and and the thing after the and and before the and and the difference between the thing before the and after the and and the thing after the and after the and?

[aarodactyl]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

The fact that actions are not uniformly random strengthens the argument that four people voting townies 2 days in a row are unlikely to be all town.

No it doesn't

[Vecna]

The implied point was that I had no idea why you were so happy to automatically sheep my damo-read.

When you're saying the odds of damo being scum are basically less than that of President Eden getting drunk and sending you nudes and an incorrect role PM, I'll assume you're seeing something I'm not for a small while.

I'm going to make so much fun of you if damo is scum and you're town.

You spent half the day yesterday asking me about if I was still sure on my damo read whilst I made more and more absurd declarations about it to see if you'd continue sheeping regardless

Well you were sort of stating it in such a way that the attentive people read PR insinuations in your statements

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo has 16 apples and 4 oranges. He draws marks on four of the apples. His mom checks the fruit bowl. She is furious. What is the percentage chance that Hellenic Riot is peering through the window?

[Vecna]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

That's kind of the point. The above gives best town case. So the chances of all 4 being town are even smaller.

total bullshit

[damo666]

This is not equivalent to what you suggested.

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.

It is the same (equivalent) to what I suggested.

It is not the same (equivalent) to our situation (the game).

What I suggested is not the same (equivalent) to our situation.

My 'suggestion' is weaker than the game hence the calcs are conservative.

Challenge: DOES ANYONE ACTUALLY THINK ALL FOUR kgray durga Jamie and durga ARE ALL TOWN?

[ghug]

Did damo do this shitty math thing to get townread?

[ghug]

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.

It is the same (equivalent) to what I suggested.

It is not the same (equivalent) to our situation (the game).

What I suggested is not the same (equivalent) to our situation.

My 'suggestion' is weaker than the game hence the calcs are conservative.

Challenge: DOES ANYONE ACTUALLY THINK ALL FOUR kgray durga Jamie and durga ARE ALL TOWN?

I do not think there are four townies in the group of kgray, Durga, Jamie, and Durga. Three tops.

[aarodactyl]

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.

It is the same (equivalent) to what I suggested.

It is not the same (equivalent) to our situation (the game).

What I suggested is not the same (equivalent) to our situation.

My 'suggestion' is weaker than the game hence the calcs are conservative.

Challenge: DOES ANYONE ACTUALLY THINK ALL FOUR kgray durga Jamie and durga ARE ALL TOWN?

No, but that's partly because you only listed 3 people. Also for the 87th time, your calculations are wrong, not conservative.

[Durga]

One of me is scum. And one of me is not scum.

[kgray]

Also, doubling down on bad math seems pretty scummy to me. However, I don't know damo enough to be solid in this read. Does this seem like something he'd do from previous games?

He does this kind of thing a lot but tbh I’ve never bothered checking his math because usually his baseline assumptions are so arbitrary and/or faulty that whatever the math tells him means nothing. I can see scum!damo intentionally reaching wrong conclusions this way but I think it’s just as likely that town!damo actually believes this stuff. So I think this is NAI from him.

[Durga]

Just call me Dr. Durga and Mr. DemonOverlord

[Vecna]

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

That's kind of the point. The above gives best town case. So the chances of all 4 being town are even smaller.

I'm even more offended by this statement than the first one. If the variables aren't independent, it's all a mess. Also, people aren't randomly choosing people to wagon on. Also if the last round was TvT and it ended up switching to HB, would you have done the same analysis on the overlap of that wagon on the ND wagon? This all feels super arbitrary. I'm not saying you're scum for it, but the math is pretty bad.

It at least shows he's suddenly pretending to not understand either statistics or probabilities. or he never did, which is even more disconcerting. I usually just skip over the posts because the underlying assumptions are just....

[ghug]

Just call me Dr. Durga and Mr. DemonOverlord

Which one is the power-mongering psychopath?

[Jamiet99uk]

What is the probability that there are at least two scum in the group of Damo, Damo, Damo and Damo?

[Vecna]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum to games in a row is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

I know youre trolling us, but hnnnngggg

[ghug]

What is the probability that there are at least two scum in the group of Damo, Damo, Damo and Damo?

Using last game as an indication the probability that one damo is scum is 100%. 3/17 players were scum last game to start (there's no recruit this game) and 6/26 were this time. That means that one damo's chances of being scum in this game are closer to 131%. That means the odds for four damos is 524%. Multiply by two damos out of four damos and you get 262% chance that two in that group are scum.