M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Jamiet99uk]

His posting limit starting up again for no reason day 2 when it wasn't there day 1 is really weird too when nothing happened that should trigger it, other than to give him an excuse to disengage even further.

Now he's not angry at Yoyo.

Jamiet is pretty sus

Uncorrect. I applied the posting limit around about half-way through both D1 and D2. You should pay more attention. Please apologise to me.

[damo666]

@kgray, @damo,

Which game was it where we all played together to the end and town lost at Kylo? I recall that kgray and I were both town in that one. And I remember being surprised by Damo’s alignment. Maybe he was town and I thought he was scum?

I think that both Bunny and Bozo were scum in that game, if I have it right.

I think you mean the one where kgray and I tied 4-4 I made the assumption kgray must have been saved since I was town and town lost. Dunno the no.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Why should I be lording it over you?

Have you ever met HR?

[Balki Bartokomous]

My point, @HR, is that either you should be unsure about my alignment and engaging me, or you should be pretty sure about my alignment, and gloating about how you are sure that you caught me red handed.

That's my feeling based on past games anyway. Can you speak to your confidence level on my alignment, and why?

[damo666]

Thanks worcej.

@damo what do you think about how strongly HR is townreading you?

It's a bit wierd tbh. (Though there is one obvious explanation which I suppose I shouldn't say but it's kind of too obvious).

Maybe he's pocketing me?

Maybe he's just good at reading me.

[damo666]

Thanks worcej.

@damo what do you think about how strongly HR is townreading you?

It's a bit wierd tbh. (Though there is one obvious explanation which I suppose I shouldn't say but it's kind of too obvious).

Maybe he's pocketing me?

Maybe he's just good at reading me.

I hadn't read HRs reply to Flum when I posted this. I think that provides your answer.

[aarodactyl]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

That's kind of the point. The above gives best town case. So the chances of all 4 being town are even smaller.

I'm even more offended by this statement than the first one. If the variables aren't independent, it's all a mess. Also, people aren't randomly choosing people to wagon on. Also if the last round was TvT and it ended up switching to HB, would you have done the same analysis on the overlap of that wagon on the ND wagon? This all feels super arbitrary. I'm not saying you're scum for it, but the math is pretty bad.

[aarodactyl]

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

You just did the statistical equivalent of circular reasoning.

You calculate the statistical odds of 4 specific TOWNIES doing something. You CANNOT then use those same numbers to reason that they must be scum.

Given your past, I reckon you know damn well that mr Bernoulli is very disappointed with you right now.

I somehow missed this post. This is also a very good explanation of why the math doesn't make sense in this context. I don't know if that means damo is scum or not, but I do know that math is no good.

[aarodactyl]

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

There are no statistical calculations here. Simple probabilities.

I think "statistical calculations" is the correct phrase to use in reference to your post. I also agree with Vecna's takedown of your math.

However, I think I'm tunneling too hard on the math, so I'm going to step back from it now and think about actual reads.

[bozotheclown]

Also I’ve been thinking that damo and worcej are probably not both scum. I really doubt that scum!worcej goes through that to dissuade me of my scumread of town!damo so I think worcej is probably town.

Maybe that is what they want you to think.

[ghug]

Also I’ve been thinking that damo and worcej are probably not both scum. I really doubt that scum!worcej goes through that to dissuade me of my scumread of town!damo so I think worcej is probably town.

Maybe that is what they want you to think.

I'm a big fan of bozothetroll

[bozotheclown]

Unless you're asking why I'm only asking Jamiet Yoyo.
Jamiet was getting irritated at Yoyo saying he needs to die. I would expect Jamiet to be getting angrier as Yoyo has only basically become even more of a tool since last time.
Which makes me think the anger was fake, and it was the only reason I had him as null instead of scum.

No that's not what I was asking, but it makes sense. What other reasons do you have to scumread Jamie?

drunk bo sox is incredibly awkward as scum, and he was super awkward this game too before he suddenly replaced out.

I used to read Jamiet based on how emotional he got during the game because he gets heated as town while remaining very chill and out of the action as scum. Last game I realized Jamiet is able to keep the emotion in as town now too so now it's more just a way to townread him instead of scumread him, but he hasn't done it yet so I don't have my easy townread.

But he still became really clearly town by the end of last game based on how he reacted to things and was very engaged with the game even with his post limit. He is really hanging back this game. He's covering it with a lot of humour (and I've underestimated how funny Jamiet can be) but almost think he's relying on it as a crutch right now.

His posting limit starting up again for no reason day 2 when it wasn't there day 1 is really weird too when nothing happened that should trigger it, other than to give him an excuse to disengage even further.

Now he's not angry at Yoyo.

Jamiet is pretty sus

Don't forget his communist scum slip.

[ghug]

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

There are no statistical calculations here. Simple probabilities.

I think "statistical calculations" is the correct phrase to use in reference to your post. I also agree with Vecna's takedown of your math.

However, I think I'm tunneling too hard on the math, so I'm going to step back from it now and think about actual reads.

I like this post but I hate this post

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamiet is pretty sus

Don't forget his communist scum slip.

Is this sarcasm?

Are you trolling me, Bozo?

Kiam vi disvolvis senton de humuro?

[bozotheclown]

D1 Vote, Color edition for reference:
ND (7) ghug, Durga, aarodactyl, Jamiet99uk, brainbomb, kgray, Hamilton Brian
teacon7 (6) Fluminator, BunnyGo, Hellenic Riot, VashtaNeurotic, Chaqa, Balki Bartokomous
Maniac (4) rdrivera2005, celaph, ND, damo666
ghug (2) Nephthys, worcej
Jamiet99uk (2) bozotheclown, teacon7
Fluminator (1) Bonatogether
bozotheclown (1) Yoyoyozo
Nephthys (1) Vecna
damo666 (1) e.m.c^42
Durga (1) Maniac

Now the 'fun' questions:

1. Why was HB saved in the last 15 minutes?
2. Who looks bad for this one?
3. Does anyone look worse now on D1 with this flip?
4. Can you all listen to me that kgray is scum now?

that had a green colour -really- fast

Not hard to make a vote count list and add colors to it...

But go ahead and let me know if it was too fast or not.

If you are saying you did not have at least part of that post prepared before the reveal, I find that hard to believe.

[damo666]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

[bozotheclown]

where were you during all of it? It seems strange to me that you sat on unvote the entire day only to show up shortly after EOD

He did the same thing D1 too.

Yeah, I was on a walk then too.

That must have been a long walk.

[Jamiet99uk]

The total number of fruit is inconsistent between Process A1 and Process A2, Damo.

[Fluminator]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum to games in a row is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

[Fluminator]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum two games in a row is bad. To be scum once is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

Fixed typos rip. I should have proofread.