M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Hellenic Riot]

I think it's safe to say I'm going to blindly sheep damo without question tomorrow

Is this sarcasm?

Not at all - Unless I get traction on emc and Balki or someone else I feel like voting, I shall sheep damo no matter what tomorrow*







*Disclaimer: If he votes me then this declaration is deemed to be null and void, and I shall instead vote Jamie for no reason whatsoever

[Vecna]

On phone with a bit of time.

There’s some horrific posts from Fluminator at EoD, someone might be able to quote them but there’s one where he says he won’t switch cause it’ll tie it then goes on to say it’s TvT

Very scummy

Flum is only scum if HB is scum. Also, these feelings are not scummy at all by themselves.

Isn't it more like Hamilton is only scum if Flum is?

ehm, yes! you are correct

[Hamilton Brian]

People keep on scumreading damo but no one ever stays on with me to vote him

EMC, do you make damo a wagon for D3? Or do you fall back on myself? You also voted Maniac yesterday. Who's the greater likelihood?

[Hamilton Brian]

@Flum

I would like to hear how on earth I managed to 'prod you' into asking HB about something I wasn't aware existed

I was wondering about that too, but I think I forgot to ask.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Okay, I disagree that he doesn't try to influence things, but I think I do agree with your last point about him not making strong cases. My opinion of town!damo is constantly changing reads with little explanation. I'm not seeing any of that here, are you?

1. Do you think Town!Damo wildly shifts reads around, while Scum!Damo is more consistent? Do you feel confident in those paradigms? If so, can you talk about why you are confident in using this particular measuring stick to sort Damo’s alignment?

2. Maybe I misunderstood your earlier arguments about Damo. I thought you were saying he was scum for failing to protect someone who he said he read as town. Wouldn’t that reflect the kind of inconsistency that you say characterizes Town!Damo?

1. I think town!damo puts out a bunch of reads and doesn't explain them, yes. But he doesn't hide his opinions. He doesn't worry about inconsistencies, he just says what he's thinking. Scum!damo doesn't share those thoughts, because he doesn't have them, so it certainly comes off as more consistent. And I'm pretty confident in it because I incorrectly scumread him like crazy in my first game for his wildly-shifting reads with no explanation. And then I was scum with him and struggled to justify my townread of him based on it being like that game because I could tell that it wasn't the same. And he was town in M60 and his opinions were all over the place - he voted for me because I had a typo... And in M61 when I was scum with him again it was more of the hesitation. It's really different to me, and I'm really surprised/concerned that HR isn't seeing this too.

2. No. That's not an inconsistency, it's apathy. Inconsistency would be if he suddenly voted for Hamilton over brain. I'd have been less worried about that.

Good answers.

[Vecna]

Flum is only scum if HB is scum. Also, these feelings are not scummy at all by themselves.

Isn't it more like Hamilton is only scum if Flum is?

ehm, yes! you are correct

wait, I had more thoughts about this.

If HB is scum, they had the document pre-prepared. Meaning, someone mustve called it out and asked him for it. Scum probably would be hoping that someone else did it, and just wait it out, to potentially go for the late minute shift. Ergo, if HB is scum, id strongly assume flum to be scum.

The reverse actually is also true. If flum is scum, why would he call out for that document from a town HB? What upside would there be? He was already the definite daykill at that point. The document might reflect well on him if it actually existed. Ergo, I do not expect a scum flum to ask for that.

From the way im looking at it, we just had a free parity cop check on these 2 chaps and their alignments are equal.

[Vecna]

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

[Vecna]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

its like comparing a dumb trump voter for assuming climate change is a hoax vs the actual president making up lies to withdraw from the paris accord

[ghug]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

Probably because it's more expected of you, my joke about counting aside.

Do you think he's intentionally misusing numbers? It seems to me that bad math (or really bad assumptions feeding into a good memory of high school statistics, thus giving the bad math a veneer of logicality) is pretty par for the damo course.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@kgray, @damo,

Which game was it where we all played together to the end and town lost at Kylo? I recall that kgray and I were both town in that one. And I remember being surprised by Damo’s alignment. Maybe he was town and I thought he was scum?

I think that both Bunny and Bozo were scum in that game, if I have it right.

[kgray]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

I’m offended by this math. You’re making several faulty assumptions. First of all, you’re assuming that everyone’s votes are independent of each other. You’re also assuming that every town player just randomly chooses someone to vote for.

why does this get upvotes and my observation did not.

Making faulty assumptions isnt that damning. Purposefully making wrong statistical calculations to make people appear scummy on the other hand.....

I mostly liked that he said he was offended by the math.

[Hamilton Brian]

wait, I had more thoughts about this.

If HB is scum, they had the document pre-prepared. Meaning, someone mustve called it out and asked him for it. Scum probably would be hoping that someone else did it, and just wait it out, to potentially go for the late minute shift. Ergo, if HB is scum, id strongly assume flum to be scum.

The reverse actually is also true. If flum is scum, why would he call out for that document from a town HB? What upside would there be? He was already the definite daykill at that point. The document might reflect well on him if it actually existed. Ergo, I do not expect a scum flum to ask for that.

From the way im looking at it, we just had a free parity cop check on these 2 chaps and their alignments are equal.

A little over my head. If I'm scum, document was prepared and called out?

If I'm scum, likely that Flum is scum.

If Flum is scum, why call out for the doc? Because if I didn't have one, after talking about one, then jumping on as, "Look, Brian lied. He doesn't have it. Scum." Yeah? I'm confused. Never mind.

[worcej]

Why is not bothering to change things a scummy mindset? Scum need to influence votes too.

Was going to post something similar to what ghug just did.

Not everyone has the same level as influence as others. Damo's style is short and sweet, not built to be a strong argument pusher. In fact, I cannot really recall Damo making strong cases on anyone ever, it's usually something like 'X is scum' and a vote with it.

Okay, I disagree that he doesn't try to influence things, but I think I do agree with your last point about him not making strong cases. My opinion of town!damo is constantly changing reads with little explanation. I'm not seeing any of that here, are you?

Note: the following is me cherry picking posts that seem to indicate reads from damo.

D1 Damo's progression was like this:

1. 16 hours into D1, no scum reads but votes me.
2. 20 hours into D1, towns ND. Also presents a big meta list found here: viewtopic.php?p=192526#p192526
3. 23 hours into D1, obvtowns HB
4. 33 hours into D1, towns Celaph
5. 41 hours into D1, likes ND's massive text wall
6. 43 hours into D1, scums Durga and BB (inferred based on a 'not you too' comment close to after Durga's scum read)
7. 44 hours into D1, votes Neph to start a new wagon
8. 45 hours into D1, goes back to Durga
9. 3 minutes left, towns ND and teacon, votes Maniac.

N1 Damo's progression was like this:

1. Mentions Jamie isn't obv!towning like he should be
2. Presents description on why his vote was on Maniac over teacon and ND - I will comment there were other options like Jamie and ghug over Maniac, but damo did not include those in his options and did not present prior reasons why to exclude those two
3. Responds to kgray's initial push on him caring more about his vote - "I flagged up ND as likely town and voted a competing wagon. What more can I do?" and then scums kgray a little bit

D2 Damo's progression was like this:

1. 30 minutes into D2 - votes kgray for her movement on EOD D1
2. Goes away for over 30 hours - NAI imo
3. 33 hours into D2, says his vote for kgray had reasoning, but his read was a joke
4. Also 33 hours into D2, dumps a lot of info:
   • Thinks HB is town for being genuine
   • Towns celaph, Vecna and Flum for their votes on HB
   • Scums Neph, Durga, Balki for their votes
   • Sees Maniac as possibly bussing kgray
   • Towns the following people off the top 2 wagons - HR, Bona, HB and ghug
5. 37 hours, he starts to scum bozo for not being himself. Votes him shortly after
6. 43 hours, shades Vecna for deliberately misunderstanding him 'like kgray does'.
7. Also 43 hours, moves back to kgray
8. 47 hours, Continues to not scum HB
9. 2 minutes left, agrees with my TvT post. Last BB mention was that he was scum fwiw...

D2 Damo's progression was like this:

• Puts this list together - kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. Removes HB from the list of 4 and adds Maniac, saying the vote should be based in these 5.
• Math stuff.

This exercise, while a long listed post, leads me to disagree that his reads are not changing. There is one flaw in that he is not adapting/changing individual reads often, but his total reads are growing and being sorted out. He is adapting his bucket of potential scum based on results so far.

This strikes me as town!damo still.

[kgray]

@kgray, @damo,

Which game was it where we all played together to the end and town lost at Kylo? I recall that kgray and I were both town in that one. And I remember being surprised by Damo’s alignment. Maybe he was town and I thought he was scum?

I think that both Bunny and Bozo were scum in that game, if I have it right.

Yeah I was thinking about that too. M54. Scum couldn’t figure out their EOD voting and damo and I were tied town wagons at mylo. Xorxes was scum and we’d basically caught him but he’d pocketed damo so well that damo refused to consider that he was scum and voted for me, so we lost.

I could see HR being the xorxes in this scenario except that I really think damo is scum here.

[worcej]

Last D2 was meant to be N2... I always have a typo in my posts...

[Fluminator]

Why yoyo and not vash?

Unless you're asking why I'm only asking Jamiet Yoyo.
Jamiet was getting irritated at Yoyo saying he needs to die. I would expect Jamiet to be getting angrier as Yoyo has only basically become even more of a tool since last time.
Which makes me think the anger was fake, and it was the only reason I had him as null instead of scum.

No that's not what I was asking, but it makes sense. What other reasons do you have to scumread Jamie?

drunk bo sox is incredibly awkward as scum, and he was super awkward this game too before he suddenly replaced out.

I used to read Jamiet based on how emotional he got during the game because he gets heated as town while remaining very chill and out of the action as scum. Last game I realized Jamiet is able to keep the emotion in as town now too so now it's more just a way to townread him instead of scumread him, but he hasn't done it yet so I don't have my easy townread.

But he still became really clearly town by the end of last game based on how he reacted to things and was very engaged with the game even with his post limit. He is really hanging back this game. He's covering it with a lot of humour (and I've underestimated how funny Jamiet can be) but almost think he's relying on it as a crutch right now.

His posting limit starting up again for no reason day 2 when it wasn't there day 1 is really weird too when nothing happened that should trigger it, other than to give him an excuse to disengage even further.

Now he's not angry at Yoyo.

Jamiet is pretty sus

[kgray]

Thanks worcej.

@damo what do you think about how strongly HR is townreading you?

[Fluminator]

@Flum

I would like to hear how on earth I managed to 'prod you' into asking HB about something I wasn't aware existed

You told me the reason you townread HB was because Damo town read him. I thought you might think you have a cop read on Damo having an innocent on HB or something so I'd humour you by checking his reasons.

His reason for townreading HB was in day 1 because he said he had a list of notes. (so it wasn't a cop read)
Did you not know the reason damo was townreading HB?

[Fluminator]

Isn't it more like Hamilton is only scum if Flum is?

ehm, yes! you are correct

wait, I had more thoughts about this.

If HB is scum, they had the document pre-prepared. Meaning, someone mustve called it out and asked him for it. Scum probably would be hoping that someone else did it, and just wait it out, to potentially go for the late minute shift. Ergo, if HB is scum, id strongly assume flum to be scum.

The reverse actually is also true. If flum is scum, why would he call out for that document from a town HB? What upside would there be? He was already the definite daykill at that point. The document might reflect well on him if it actually existed. Ergo, I do not expect a scum flum to ask for that.

From the way im looking at it, we just had a free parity cop check on these 2 chaps and their alignments are equal.

I'd probably still ask as scum fwiw.

[kgray]

Also I’ve been thinking that damo and worcej are probably not both scum. I really doubt that scum!worcej goes through that to dissuade me of my scumread of town!damo so I think worcej is probably town.