M61 - The Mastermind's Revenge - Game Thread - HIDDEN

[damo666]

So, I think there's three broad scenarios we have to consider:

1. Both of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, I along with many others have been very wrong about Kgray. If both Jamie and Kgray are town, however, then Dargo must also be town, because there would be no reason to roleblock them both if scum has the Fruit Vendor. In this case, the scumteam would have to be in Chaqa, Damo, Bunny, Macca, Rivera

2. Neither of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, scum has both Faith Healers, whether through purchase or recruitment or random, it's hard to say. If scum owns both healers, Dargo is also likely town, since they'd not buy the FHs and the Fruit Vendor, I think. In thinking about what scumteam with two healers looks like, I'm tempted to believe kgray would be the recruit that random-rolled into Faith Healer. In this scenario, the scumteam is Jamiet, Kgray, and 2 of the rest of us that aren't Dargo. This seems like the least likely scenario, but I will go back and do some VCA and such to see who would be most likely to be their scum teammates if this is true.

3. One of the roleblock claims is true, the other is fake
I suppose this should be split into two sections - one for fakeJamie and one for fakeKgray, but I think if either one is fake it has to be Kgray. In this scenario, scum roleblocked Jamie or Kgray to ensure that their kill could go through, while the scum-Healer also claims RB. This makes sense to me as a possibility since Kgray was under a lot of suspicion, and this play would serve to make everyone clear her so an easy mis-kill can be pushed on me. Similar to before, if scum has FV, this play makes no sense, so Dargo is still clear. In this scenario, I think the scumteam is Kgray, and 3 of Chaqa/Damo/Bunny/Rivera/Macca.

Dargo looks extremely town in all three scenarios.

I rank likelihood of these as:
3 > 1 >>> 2

If one healer is fake, I think it's kgray.

Dargo locktown. Kgray only town if scumteam is exactly Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera. If any of those four are town, then the Kgray RB claim has to be fake.

Need to do some more analysis on Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera.

This looks like good stuff. Not enough for me to stop voting you, but it's a start.

Is it though? I've rethought and I don't agree with Chaqa'a assertions about darg

[TheMadMonarch]

So, I think there's three broad scenarios we have to consider:

1. Both of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, I along with many others have been very wrong about Kgray. If both Jamie and Kgray are town, however, then Dargo must also be town, because there would be no reason to roleblock them both if scum has the Fruit Vendor. In this case, the scumteam would have to be in Chaqa, Damo, Bunny, Macca, Rivera

2. Neither of the roleblock claims are true
In this scenario, scum has both Faith Healers, whether through purchase or recruitment or random, it's hard to say. If scum owns both healers, Dargo is also likely town, since they'd not buy the FHs and the Fruit Vendor, I think. In thinking about what scumteam with two healers looks like, I'm tempted to believe kgray would be the recruit that random-rolled into Faith Healer. In this scenario, the scumteam is Jamiet, Kgray, and 2 of the rest of us that aren't Dargo. This seems like the least likely scenario, but I will go back and do some VCA and such to see who would be most likely to be their scum teammates if this is true.

3. One of the roleblock claims is true, the other is fake
I suppose this should be split into two sections - one for fakeJamie and one for fakeKgray, but I think if either one is fake it has to be Kgray. In this scenario, scum roleblocked Jamie or Kgray to ensure that their kill could go through, while the scum-Healer also claims RB. This makes sense to me as a possibility since Kgray was under a lot of suspicion, and this play would serve to make everyone clear her so an easy mis-kill can be pushed on me. Similar to before, if scum has FV, this play makes no sense, so Dargo is still clear. In this scenario, I think the scumteam is Kgray, and 3 of Chaqa/Damo/Bunny/Rivera/Macca.

Dargo looks extremely town in all three scenarios.

I rank likelihood of these as:
3 > 1 >>> 2

If one healer is fake, I think it's kgray.

Dargo locktown. Kgray only town if scumteam is exactly Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera. If any of those four are town, then the Kgray RB claim has to be fake.

Need to do some more analysis on Macca, Damo, Bunny, Rivera.

This looks like good stuff. Not enough for me to stop voting you, but it's a start.

Is it though? I've rethought and I don't agree with Chaqa'a assertions about darg

I agree there, darg is not as confirmed innocent as chaqa would like us to believe. However, that breakdown otherwise seems pretty good.

Remember, it's NOT good enough to move him from #1 scum spot.

[BunnyGo]

Just saw this for @chaqa

https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to- ... n-takeout/

[Chaqa]

Just saw this for @chaqa

https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to- ... n-takeout/

My local Chipotle has been digital/pickup only off and on for the past few weeks. It's quite frustrating.

[dargorygel]

Consolidate
##vote chaqa

[BunnyGo]

Ok...Mrs. Bunny is now asleep.

As much as I appreciate that Flum has voted Chaqa, this kinda stinks that we get no VCA, no analysis. We all just follow Flum and see if he can guess right 3-4 times in a row (depending on recruitment and white flag).

So...what's the situation? If we don't kill because scum force a tie, we lose. If we miskill, we lose. So for those reasons it makes sense that every town has to vote together.

So yes, consolidate. But let's take the day and analyze. First up...the ballad of Jimbo:

Jimmy's first three posts are "I didn't know we could post!!" and then "MACCA SCUM SLIP" and then "OOOOH HAMMER TIME!!!!!"

If I ever do this, I'm scum. But I'm not willing to throw James under the bus yet. He may have just been weird.

Then he just harps on this. As if NONE OF the people he was harassing to vote ## END (space so it doesnt' count here) would possibly be scum. As if he wasn't scum just fu**ing with everyone.

My god Jim posts a lot of nothing. He pushes ghug, Flum, and chaqa. He mocks me for not knowing what's going on when I join. I wonder how he feels about his math about rdr now. Does it help looking back at that statistics?

Then he tries to push me to vote Flum because of the mass claim idea. Then joins the Flum wagon. Several posts berating people to play and saying he's town.

Pushes the Flum wagon hard.

In day 2, he focuses a lot on roleblocks. Pushes it to the front of the conversation for a bit.

Picks a fight with bo, and gets in between ghug and kgray.

Then votes chaqa after getting pissed that chaqa is pushing him.

Agrees with rdr that Seth was coasting.

Then there's this post:

"The purpose of a scum Fruit Vendor is to distract / confuse Trackers and Watchers. So if you get Fruit, it's a good idea to declare it, as Damo did."

This is the first post where on reread my hackles came up. How could a healer not know what a scum Fruit Vendor was for?! IT'S BECAUSE HE KNOWS THE FRUIT VENDOR IS TOWN AND HE'S SCUM!! naughty Jimbo...naughty naughty...

He even read the role as he quotes it "Yeah Ghug is wrong about this.

The Fruit Vendor role says *may* visit, not *must* visit. There's nothing to suggest the visiting is compulsive / mandatory."

So I have trouble believing a lawyer and mech player like Jamie didn't know what was going on for HIS OWN ROLE!

After "pushing" chaqa for a while, announces that he's got chaqa back so unvotes.

Instead he shifts to push HR.

He does a reread of HR, entirely prompted (it seems) by HR's low post count and his naked vote of kgray.

"Interesting to note that the Double Vote was on Teacon." This isn't much to do with Jamie, but I figured out why Seth put it there: it was 4-4-4 and he didn't want to accidentally cause a tie. So he dumped his double vote for that day.

Next James jumps back into the kgray-ghug lovers spat and announces that "ghug lied, he must died" (paraphrased for rhyming scheme).

Then we have the lost day that Maniac took from us. Surprisingly little to learn from Jaimie's posts that day.

Then damo's point about chaqa's coloring "Wow, I think there's a serious possibility Chaqa just made a very colourful scumslip. Well spotted Damo."

And then hedges "↑kgray: "lmao so chaqa is conf!scum."
No.
Not confirmed.
It's just a possibility."

Then tries to get people to notice there was no roleblocks again...he was on that every morning. Then draaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwssssssssssssssssssss out his information that he saved himself from Maniac. And votes Chaqa.

"↑ghug: "Why are you confident there was a roleblock?"
Ohhh shit it costs them like two dollars doesn't it?

Maybe they haven't been using the RB, that's true." (Oh look everyone! Scum aren't roleblocking! I had noooo idea!!!)

Decides to 'forget' why he's voting chaqa, and join the wagon on ghug.

"Yea but the fun thing about Roleblocking me is that if the other FH also visits the same target, the Roleblock on me would cause their protection to succeed." And he WAS AWARE that other protectors would ruin his save.

"Kgray is town.
Elect Ghug today."

Ok....I reached the max output of posts around here. The tldr; is coming.

[BunnyGo]

tldr; The ballad of Jamiet:

1) Despite me thinking others had been leading town, Jamiet push Flum, saved kgray and pushed ghug, saved himself from Maniac, and acknowledged and then deflected chaqa's possible scum slip.

2) Jamiet closely read the Fruit Vendor role, and while he wasn't out as a healer then, knew the healers would be affected. And didn't say anything about it for a "scum" FV.

3) Every day Jamiet focused hard on getting everyone to declare they hadn't been RBd. Then finally announced "Oh! It costs scum coin...there ARE NO roleblocks happening." This seems like a possible tryhard fake town slip.

Conclusion: If darg is town, and chaqa scum, then Jamiet goes up my scum list.

[BunnyGo]

And now it is late, and I'm tired (and now less drunk...). Ballad of rdr and damo coming up next on my list. Probably after sleeping a bit. I have meetings in 8 hours or so.

[TheMadMonarch]

And now it is late, and I'm tired (and now less drunk...). Ballad of rdr and damo coming up next on my list. Probably after sleeping a bit. I have meetings in 8 hours or so.

Why do you choose these 3?

[kgray]

Hammering at kilo only favours scum, so please no one vote end.

This said, I think Flum have been pretty clear about what he thinks.

@Jamiet abd @Dargo- If any of you are town please reconsider your vote.

So you are not even considering that I could be town?

[BunnyGo]

And now it is late, and I'm tired (and now less drunk...). Ballad of rdr and damo coming up next on my list. Probably after sleeping a bit. I have meetings in 8 hours or so.

Why do you choose these 3?

I've spent a lot of time zeroing in on dargo.

Everyone else has spent time zeroing in on kgray/chaqa. And based on Flum, we're killing one of them today. So I see no point assuming we get it wrong.

But many people are scum reading rdr, and I don't see it. So I want to look.

And damo has seemed to skate through, and I need to finally look closely. I'm pretty good at reading him as scum. I haven't seen it, but I haven't really taken a deep dive.

You'd have been 3rd on the list..but I'm not sure I'll have time soon.

[kgray]

As much as I appreciate that Flum has voted Chaqa, this kinda stinks that we get no VCA, no analysis. We all just follow Flum and see if he can guess right 3-4 times in a row (depending on recruitment and white flag).

Why are you and Rivera insisting the game rests on Flum?? We don't have to follow Flum. He can move his vote. Obviously he's stating Chaqa is his preference but that doesn't mean he gets to decide for everyone.

[kgray]

Everyone else has spent time zeroing in on kgray/chaqa. And based on Flum, we're killing one of them today. So I see no point assuming we get it wrong.

No. Flum isn't forcing today's vote to be between me and Chaqa. He's stating his reads, but he doesn't get to decide for everyone who we vote for and he's going to adjust his vote if needed. Stop trying to narrow it down like that.

[kgray]

I am having a really hard time justifying Chaqa as town, but this is really starting to feel like a trap to me. The two RBs to ensure a successful NK on a non-healer really feels like scum going all-in on betting that today is a miskill. Between Chaqa being the leading wagon yesterday before Vecna's no-kill plan, and me tunneling him all game, the momentum was certainly heading in a Chaqa daykill today. Especially with people joining wagons for "consolidation" and now Bunny's statement that Flum has decided it's me or Chaqa, my gut is telling me this is wrong.

[rdrivera2005]

Hammering at kilo only favours scum, so please no one vote end.

This said, I think Flum have been pretty clear about what he thinks.

@Jamiet abd @Dargo- If any of you are town please reconsider your vote.

So you are not even considering that I could be town?

I consider it, but you have been scumreading me for so long that I don't see you changing your mind.

But I don't think you are town. I willl be really shocked if you flip town.

[rdrivera2005]

I am having a really hard time justifying Chaqa as town, but this is really starting to feel like a trap to me. The two RBs to ensure a successful NK on a non-healer really feels like scum going all-in on betting that today is a miskill. Between Chaqa being the leading wagon yesterday before Vecna's no-kill plan, and me tunneling him all game, the momentum was certainly heading in a Chaqa daykill today. Especially with people joining wagons for "consolidation" and now Bunny's statement that Flum has decided it's me or Chaqa, my gut is telling me this is wrong.

Oh yeah. You and Chaqa were bussing each other all game, but know that all you need is a misskill you start to have doubts.
I don't think we should follow Flum blindly. I am voting you, but unfortunately I am not gathering enough support.
But you are smart enough to see why we need to consolidate on milo. We don't need to consolidate right now, but closer to EOD we can't have more then 2 wagons.

[BunnyGo]

The ballad of rdr:

Very few posts pre-role assignments. A couple joke posts, and one potential serious one believing (or pretending to believe) ghug had scum slipped.

"I would have taken the extra member, tree stump, fruit vendor and Voyeur. This will allow the use of RB or RoleCop when needed. I don't see any cheap Role worth spending on it." An early post. but if true, maybe a chaqaMaccaRdriveraRecruit?

"I was giving a second thought and I would have considered the Public Vanilla instead of the Fruit Vendor if scum have someone that isn't a likely NK."

"Want to point two things:
- the Durga vote was a joke because she pushed my NK on N1 the last two times she was scum.

- We agree on the PV role value (after I gave a second thought) to scum to hide usual fearkills.

- I was upset I roled Vanilla when I answered Maniac. Still am, as it's useless and will probably get me daykilled early. But I do use foul language, not so much in English, lol."

Notice that was 3 things!

Spends some time lamenting the lack of VCA from day 1.

Pushes teacon, and Seth (because seth was coasting). On day 2.

He agrees with Maniac that the PV role has doomed him to a daykill. Also that this now means he'll never be nightkilled. @@MANIAC Why didn't you shoot rdr and clear this up for us?!

rdr then also has a post saying "scum FV visiting someone is stupid". He could mean "unless he strongman visited the NK target." He could mean "I actually don't know the rules because I'm PV so why bother reading."

Seth was his top scumread.

"↑ghug: "I've never been so tempted to sheep a clear."
I understand your feeling. What the 4 Jamiet votes mean, I don't remember your codes."

Then he unvotes Seth apropos of very little after he'd pushed and pushed the lazy coasting Seth posts.

Moves to vote Damo because he thought Damo joining his scumread on Teacon was bad (damo's stated final reason was a mispost by teacon)

The rdr is pissed about the EOD2. Says that we should look at the HR wagon for scum. Amusingly he's never pushed this since putting it out there. We've yet to have a wagon from these voters. He didn't join a dargo wagon, hasn't pushed Jamie. Chaqa will be our first DK from this wagon, and he was the one who joined to prevent a tie.

Then the lost day of Maniac starts, but amusingly rdr votes Maniac before he comes out with his games.

"↑Jamiet99uk: "A sudden Rdrivera wagon appearing out of nowhere just after I ask a question about Rdrivera is worrying me."
I think it's great. All we need is Macca or Chaqa vote me and you have the game solved."

Then he talks himself off of reading seth as scum when Macca votes him. Decides that Macca-damo-kgray team makes a lot of sense.

Then he jumps when jamie yells, and votes ghug.

[BunnyGo]

tldr; Ballad of rdr:

1) He often seems to push hard on something and then scumread others for joining him.

2) He has changed his mind on so many people and mechanics opinions as the game has progressed (Seth = scum! Chaqa obv scum! Chaqa obv town! Chaqa obv scum! etc. etc.)

3) He discussed mechanics a lot at the start, and then denigrated talking it a the end.

However, these contradictions feel towny to me. These did not feel like scum trying to see what would stick. It felt like town feeling around in the dark and testing for themselves what is real.

There were a few mistakes that seemed less towny. But overall, those could be chalked up to lack of time/focus.

[Jamiet99uk]

tldr; The ballad of Jamiet:

1) Despite me thinking others had been leading town, Jamiet push Flum, saved kgray and pushed ghug, saved himself from Maniac, and acknowledged and then deflected chaqa's possible scum slip.

2) Jamiet closely read the Fruit Vendor role, and while he wasn't out as a healer then, knew the healers would be affected. And didn't say anything about it for a "scum" FV.

3) Every day Jamiet focused hard on getting everyone to declare they hadn't been RBd. Then finally announced "Oh! It costs scum coin...there ARE NO roleblocks happening." This seems like a possible tryhard fake town slip.

Conclusion: If darg is town, and chaqa scum, then Jamiet goes up my scum list.

There's a lot of rubbish in your emotive, sloppy iso of me, but let me pick up a few points here, in line with your own numbering:

1) You are right that I pushed Fluminator. His massclaim plan, at that time, was very bad. I figured it could be scum-motivated. You are right that I pushed Ghug. I made my reasons for doing so very clear at the time. I was wrong, but there we go.

1) How is it scum-indicative that I saved myself from Maniac? It seemed very obvious to me that Maniac would target me. Since I am town, this would lead to an additional town death. Naturally I wished to prevent this. You are suggesting this is scum-indicative, which is wrong.

1) Do you think that Chaqa's colour coding was a scum slip?

2) I did not realise that the Fruit Vendor was a "protective" until well into D2. I totally missed the fact that the FV could interfere with my save. I have previously said this, and you know that because it was on page 234 in a post specifically directed at you. From a setup perspective it's actually quite strange that a Fruit Vendor is regarded as "protective" in this setup; it provides no protection since the fruit does not save anyone. I have used FV in a setup I GM-ed in the past, and it was not a protective, its only purpose was to help scum distract a tracker. Hence my D1 comments to that effect. Your analysis regarding my thoughts on the Fruit Vendor is based on entirely incorrect assumptions.

3) Well, it wasn't, so there. In retrospect, doesn't it strike you as odd that so many people were uninterested in declaring whether there had been a roleblock or not? That information would actually have helped town work out a little bit of info about the Mafia's credit position.

[Jamiet99uk]

Unofficial VOTE COUNT

Chaqa (5) Macca573, damo666, BunnyGo, dargorygel, Fluminator
kgray (2) Chaqa, rdrivera2005
rdrivera2005 (1) kgray

Unvoted (1) Jamiet99uk

I predict that there are currently two scum on the Chaqa wagon.